• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

North Korea threatens war if Satellite is shot down.

ElephantPhil

New member
Joined
Sep 12, 2008
Messages
13
Reaction score
1
Gender
Male
Political Leaning
Libertarian
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/03/09/world/AP-AS-Koreas-Tension.html?_r=1

''If the enemies recklessly opt for intercepting our satellite, our revolutionary armed forces will launch without hesitation a just retaliatory strike operation not only against all the interceptor means involved but against the strongholds'' of the U.S., Japan and South Korea, the general staff of the North's military said in a statement.

''Shooting our satellite for peaceful purposes will precisely mean a war,'' said the statement, carried by Pyongyang's official Korean Central News Agency.

The North's military ordered all personnel to ''be fully combat ready'' so that they could ''deal merciless retaliatory blows'' at the enemy, KCNA said in a separate dispatch."

Hmm, apparently they normally do satellite tests, but this is the first time they've put forth a warning like this.

What do you guys think?
 
Last edited:
It could mean that they are testing a missile and trying to disguise it as a satellite launch. Or someone in NK is just feeling cranky. Its depressing that I can't honestly say which is more likely.

Honestly, my biggest worry is that they screw up launching the satellite themselves and then claim it was attacked by a foreign power.
 
Honestly, my biggest worry is that they screw up launching the satellite themselves and then claim it was attacked by a foreign power.


Wouldn't put it past them...
 
Hmm, apparently they normally do satellite tests, but this is the first time they've put forth a warning like this.

What do you guys think?

What do I think? About the same thing the U.S. would do if one of their satellites were shot down by another country.

There are two real questions that need to be answered.

One, if NK is really firing a missile, would you as NK like to actually know if someone can shoot down your missile? I think so.

Second, NK had no problems launching the first Teapodong-1 missile across the sea, so why would they mind someone knowing now? I think if they are launching a missile they want to find out if it can be taken out.

If I were NK and launching a missile, I would like to know if someone could take it down.

If I were NK and launching a satellite that costs millions of dollars, I would want to state it is a satellite so it doesn't get taken down.

Is NK launching a satellite? Maybe, and it is a good chance.

If they are launching an actually missile, they may be provoking the U.S. into testing their missile defense system to see if it really works.

Now tell me which damage is worse. NK launching a missile and having it taken down, or NK launching a missile and not having it taken down by a defense system?
 
They wouldn't dare attack another Nation-state. They don't have enough food stuffs to survive any sort of siege, and their offensive power is the equivalent of the North Carolina's boy scout association.
 
They wouldn't dare attack another Nation-state. They don't have enough food stuffs to survive any sort of siege, and their offensive power is the equivalent of the North Carolina's boy scout association.

Kim Chong Il is riding the good life he has for as long as he has it. I agree that he won't start anything as long as he is alive.

My worries are when he dies or he cannot physically lead and one of his children takes over. That is another story. Until then, he will do his normal saber rattling, but that is it.
 
What do I think? About the same thing the U.S. would do if one of their satellites were shot down by another country.

Except we don't announce it beforehand and we don't threaten random countries in the process. Why make such a threat when nobody has even mentioned taking out NK's satellite?

If they are launching an actually missile, they may be provoking the U.S. into testing their missile defense system to see if it really works.

That would involve shooting a missile at U.S. soil. I doubt they could actually do it, and it would be an act of war. I doubt even the crazies in charge would be so moronic.
 
They wouldn't dare attack another Nation-state. They don't have enough food stuffs to survive any sort of siege, and their offensive power is the equivalent of the North Carolina's boy scout association.

Not true. They have enough Artillery near the border to devastate Seoul. Civilian casualties would range from the thousands to tens of thousands. Furthermore, they would probably fire whatever kind of WMDs they have at Japan. Any attack on NK will come at the high cost of innocent lives.
 
Not true. They have enough Artillery near the border to devastate Seoul. Civilian casualties would range from the thousands to tens of thousands. Furthermore, they would probably fire whatever kind of WMDs they have at Japan. Any attack on NK will come at the high cost of innocent lives.

Kim Jong Ill and his buddies need to die mysteriously.... CIA style.
 
Some things to consider: Why does a country which does not allow contact with the outside world as a matter of policy need a communications satellite? Why would they not show the world this satellite dispel the notion that it were anything but? Why would they make the launch date a secret? Why would they not coordinate with the rest of the world for the purpose of deconfliction (this is how we intend to orbit our satellite will this collide with anything?)? Why would the US military come out and make that kind of statement if they didn't have reason to believe it's not a satellite? I think the military knows damn well that it would mean war.

In somewhat related news, I'd like to point everybody to the video at the bottom of this page. Within you will find a statement by what appears to be a high ranking officer of the Navy. I find it interesting that he says "I can honestly say that I believe that the exercise is not designed to prepare for an attack on North Korea, but to defend the Republic of Korea from North Korean aggression." He believes? You mean he doesn't know what the purpose of the exercise is??? If he doesn't, then who the hell does? I also notice that he looks down a lot when he makes that statement and shifts his eyes about. It appears to me that he is lying. Now, I'm not saying that the US is planning an attack but I am suggesting that that perhaps he has heard a whiff of a rumor that South Korea may be examining their options.

If the US shoots down a "satellite launch vehicle" which is in fact a missile with a re-entry vehicle or worse, in a clear violation of international law, I have strong reason to believe that the international community will be unified in their opposition to subsequent North Korean aggression (the possible wildcard being china, for whom a unified North Korea under a Western style government is not in the best interest). However, if South Korea unilaterally invades North Korea (which, I would argue, they have some pretty compelling reasons to do and do right now), the international community will be much more divided and South Korea may risk an escalation of conflict to WWIII.

And another question: Do you think that Obama, a man with no military or even executive experience could handle a war in Korea in light of the fact that we are already waging a war on two fronts?
 
Last edited:
Kim Jong Ill and his buddies need to die mysteriously.... CIA style.

You mean horribly bungle the assassination after outsourcing to the Mafia? The CIA sucks at assassinations. Look at Castro.
 
Not true. They have enough Artillery near the border to devastate Seoul. Civilian casualties would range from the thousands to tens of thousands. Furthermore, they would probably fire whatever kind of WMDs they have at Japan. Any attack on NK will come at the high cost of innocent lives.

They also have chemical weapons and perhaps a nuke or two.
 
That would involve shooting a missile at U.S. soil. I doubt they could actually do it, and it would be an act of war. I doubt even the crazies in charge would be so moronic.

The National Defense System is supposed to shoot down missiles that are in international waters.

If it can't it proves how ineffective it really is.

I don't think NK is as dumb as you think they are.
 
Not true. They have enough Artillery near the border to devastate Seoul. Civilian casualties would range from the thousands to tens of thousands. Furthermore, they would probably fire whatever kind of WMDs they have at Japan. Any attack on NK will come at the high cost of innocent lives.

I disagree. The first few minutes of artillery and North Korea would be scattered into thousands of pieces.
 
I say just go to war with the DPRK. Everyone knows that South Korea, with the help of the US and Japan would annihilate the DPRK.

That way, we can get rid of the DPRK and reunite the Korean peninsula under a capitalist regime faster.
 
Everyone knows that South Korea, with the help of the US and Japan would annihilate the DPRK.

The problem like you an many don't recognize, that even though NK would lose their artillery would kill MILLIONS.

It's nice to be in another country and not care about casualties when your people aren't taking them, but the realities for South Koreans is much different.

A war between NK and SK would result in a SK victory but millions at the most and hundreds of thousands at the least would pay the price.

Easy to say when your countries civilians don't have to pay the price eh?
 
c.
The National Defense System is supposed to shoot down missiles that are in international waters.

No it is not. It is intended to protect U.S. soil, as well as other strategic areas. Currently, we only have the claimed ability to intercept missiles past their boost phase on a trajectory toward the U.S. itself. That cannot be tested unless NK puts a missile into our airspace, which is an act of war.

If it can't it proves how ineffective it really is.

Although I have serious doubts about our ability to intercept missiles, that is an unfair criticism. Protecting international waters was never a goal of the program, and is pretty much irrelevant.

------------------------------------------------------------

I disagree. The first few minutes of artillery and North Korea would be scattered into thousands of pieces.

Not true. NK has around 5 to 6 thousand artillery pieces capable of hitting Seoul. They are dug in, with many pieces concealed in caves or other fortifications. If NK decides to focus that much firepower on Seoul, thousands will die in the best case scenario. The only hope for avoiding such a situation is to hope that they focus on military targets on the border, not civilian ones in the city.
 
c.

No it is not. It is intended to protect U.S. soil, as well as other strategic areas. Currently, we only have the claimed ability to intercept missiles past their boost phase on a trajectory toward the U.S. itself. That cannot be tested unless NK puts a missile into our airspace, which is an act of war.

I'm of the understanding that the US is prepared to shoot down the missile if there is an indication that it is not a satellite. This can likely be gauged by the projected trajectory of the missile, which means it could be shot down by an Aegis class destroyer and an SM-3. Japan has offered to send an Aegis class destroyer to the area and perform the intercept, should it be necessary.

Edit: I'd like to add that the idea that North Korea would try to "test" the Us's ability to shoot down missile by launching a missile at the US is completely irrational. With a regime as collectively insane as that of NK, I wouldn't put it past them, but I seriously doubt they would ever be that stupid. It certainly would not be in their best interest.

Although I have serious doubts about our ability to intercept missiles, that is an unfair criticism. Protecting international waters was never a goal of the program, and is pretty much irrelevant.

The US's ability to shoot down missiles is not in much doubt. These are well tested systems. The idea is EXACTLY to shoot down the missiles before they're over US territory (whether in international airspace or not). Aegis is designed to shoot them down during the boost phase, while GBI is designed to shoot them down in space (mid-course).

Not true. NK has around 5 to 6 thousand artillery pieces capable of hitting Seoul. They are dug in, with many pieces concealed in caves or other fortifications. If NK decides to focus that much firepower on Seoul, thousands will die in the best case scenario. The only hope for avoiding such a situation is to hope that they focus on military targets on the border, not civilian ones in the city.

They'd have to focus on military targets. Otherwise, they wont be providing fire support for their infantry. Attacking population centers makes good sabre rattling to inspire fear, but in practice the only thing they'd accomplish would be further enraging the international community.

Anyone have any comments on my first post on page 1?
 
Last edited:
Hmm, apparently they normally do satellite tests, but this is the first time they've put forth a warning like this.

What do you guys think?

I think its a good thing GWB didnt listen to the loons and, instead, continued on with the NMD.
 
They wouldn't dare attack another Nation-state. They don't have enough food stuffs to survive any sort of siege, and their offensive power is the equivalent of the North Carolina's boy scout association.

That's not the danger.

Go to Google Maps, go look up the distance Seoul is from the border. Last time I checked, and granted it's been a while, but I doubt the numbers have changed much, but NK had somewhere on the order of 50,000 rocket and artillery tubes pointed at Seoul.

That's been the great fear, I've seen the causality estimates. There are 19,000,000 people living in and around Seoul. Should hostilities break out NK's battle plan is to unleash hell on earth on the city with estimates anywhere from 1/3 to 1/2 of the civilian population killed or wounded in less then 30 minutes of the first round being fired.

And that's if the conflict starts and remains conventional, something that's been debated. NK does have Chemical weapons pointed at Seoul, and the thinking is that they'll go all out in hopes of forcing SK into surrender before America can react, thus they'll just hit the city with everything.

Chemical on the outskirts of the city and conventional on the city itself. That brings the casualty rate to over 60% in the first 12 hours of fighting, and that's the low end.

No one wants to go down in history as the leadership that killed 19 million people.
 
You know I wonder what it would take for Japan to change Article 9 of its constitution. If NK started firing missile around I can't see Japan just sitting there with their asses hanging out. Japan has a navy of over 100 ships not counting reserves. They are no slouches.
 
You mean horribly bungle the assassination after outsourcing to the Mafia? The CIA sucks at assassinations. Look at Castro.

Nobody is perfect.

The CIA doesn't suck. You have to access (not that I do) to those records. The CIA is a rather brutal institution and it has, in the past, employed so very sick people.

Generally speaking, the U.S. government has a policy that prohibits the assassination of heads of state. This is a cold war era rule designed to leave alive those individuals who "can turn it off."

Basically, we don't kill those people who can order military forces to stand down. It's our way of making sure nobody ever has to learn of mutually assured destruction first hand.

Still Kim Jong Ill is a 3rd world despot who desperately needs a foot up his ass.

Kim Jong Ill sold nuclear technology to Syria. Syria quickly tried to build a nuclear reactor and Israel promptly reduced the entire site to rubble.

Still selling, giving, renting or leasing nuclear technology to unstable theocracies run by a collection of zealatous asshats is unacceptable.
Iran has nuclear technology they bought from Russia.

If I ever see Vladimir Putin in person, I am going to kick him the balls.

Mikhail Gorbechov referred to Putin's administration as being more extreme than the old Soviet hardliners.

Putin is an imbecile who sold nuclear toys who the world's nastiest theocracy. If the UN had any balls, I would be lobbying them for sanctions against Russia. However, the UN is a toothless, neutered lion.... so there goes that idea!
 
Last edited:
The problem like you an many don't recognize, that even though NK would lose their artillery would kill MILLIONS.

It's nice to be in another country and not care about casualties when your people aren't taking them, but the realities for South Koreans is much different.

A war between NK and SK would result in a SK victory but millions at the most and hundreds of thousands at the least would pay the price.

Easy to say when your countries civilians don't have to pay the price eh?

That is why NK isn't going to start a war. NK knows it will lose... and unlike the last Korean war, China will not help North Korea this time.
 
and unlike the last Korean war, China will not help North Korea this time.

I wouldn't be too sure of that. One of the main reasons that China joined in with North Korea was that it didn't want the U.S. to have the ability to be at it's front door.

I doubt that ideology has changed.
 
I wouldn't be too sure of that. One of the main reasons that China joined in with North Korea was that it didn't want the U.S. to have the ability to be at it's front door.

I doubt that ideology has changed.

In those days there were no functioning ICBMs. China knows they are within reach at all times; they also know we are not going to attack them.

China also knows the consequences of backing North Korea.... especially if North Korea instigates a conflict with the south.
 
Back
Top Bottom