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U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible

The black helicopters are coming, put on your tinfoil hat.
 
PeteEU said:
The black helicopters are coming, put on your tinfoil hat.
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This isn't at all a tinfoil hat story, if you've been paying attention to what's been happening in Mexico. For the past couple years, the drug cartels have been involved in a low-grade civil war against the government and each other. In the last few months the violence has increased enormously,

This would be a good opportunity for Obama to push for the decriminalization of all drugs. But I'm not holding my breath.
 
This is as serious a problem as almost any on the horizon. Not the most likely, but the most serious because we are not prepared for it at all.

I can't imagine all of the ramifications of it were it to happen.

It would change ALL our lives.
 
I doubt it...
the mexican military will act decisively against any revolutionaries, or outsiders, trying to take down the existing govt.
IF it is tried in a civil manner, the govt will just "give" more to its citizens, placating them, as they have for decades.
Altho, a case might be made that many of the illegal immigrants HERE who are having to go home due to lack of work will chafe at the restraints the mexican govt puts on its own people there....
 
UtahBill said:
I doubt it...
the mexican military will act decisively against any revolutionaries, or outsiders, trying to take down the existing govt.
IF it is tried in a civil manner, the govt will just "give" more to its citizens, placating them, as they have for decades.
Altho, a case might be made that many of the illegal immigrants HERE who are having to go home due to lack of work will chafe at the restraints the mexican govt puts on its own people there....
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The pressures on the government have been increasing over the past few years and they haven't been able to relieve that pressure. Their President is issuing orders to present a positive spin of Mexico.

I hope they can keep it together.

Related story: 2,000 fresh troops sent to Juarez as violence continues
EL PASO - Mexico is one of two countries that "bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse," according to a report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command on worldwide security threats.

The command's "Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)" report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. "In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.

"The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone."

The U.S. Joint Forces Command, based in Norfolk, Va., is one of the Defense Departments combat commands that includes members of the different military service branches, active and reserves, as well as civilian and contract employees. One of its key roles is to help transform the U.S. military's capabilities.

In the foreword, Marine Gen. J.N. Mattis, the USJFC commander, said "Predictions about the future are always risky ... Regardless, if we do not try to forecast the future, there is no doubt that we will be caught off guard as we strive to protect this experiment in democracy that we call America."

The report is one in a series focusing on Mexico's internal security problems, mostly stemming from drug violence and drug corruption. In recent weeks, the Department of Homeland Security and former U.S. drug czar Barry McCaffrey issued similar alerts about Mexico.

Despite such reports, El Pasoan Veronica Callaghan, a border business leader, said she keeps running into people in the region who "are in denial about what is happening in Mexico."

Last week, Mexican President Felipe Calderon instructed his embassy and consular officials to promote a positive image of Mexico.
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Kandahar said:
This isn't at all a tinfoil hat story, if you've been paying attention to what's been happening in Mexico. For the past couple years, the drug cartels have been involved in a low-grade civil war against the government and each other. In the last few months the violence has increased enormously,

This would be a good opportunity for Obama to push for the decriminalization of all drugs. But I'm not holding my breath.
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Give me a break. All this is another attempt of fear mongering to find boogie men that "will harm us and rape our women". We have seen it when it comes to communists and Muslims, and now that the right has lost power in the US, they will use any and all methods to drive fear into the populace so they can take power again and "do something about it". And considering that latinos are the new "enemy" to many on the right due to the immigration issue, and most come through Mexico, then it is only natural that the right would use language and "opinions" like this to drive fear into the average American.. after all it has worked with Communists and Muslims.

The chances of Mexico going into a civil war and collapse is as about the same chance that George W Bush goes to jail for the crap he did during his presidency.
 
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PeteEU said:
Give me a break. All this is another attempt of fear mongering to find boogie men that "will harm us and rape our women". We have seen it when it comes to communists and Muslims, and now that the right has lost power in the US, they will use any and all methods to drive fear into the populace so they can take power again and "do something about it". And considering that latinos are the new "enemy" to many on the right due to the immigration issue, and most come through Mexico, then it is only natural that the right would use language and "opinions" like this to drive fear into the average American.. after all it has worked with Communists and Muslims.

The chances of Mexico going into a civil war and collapse is as about the same chance that George W Bush goes to jail for the crap he did during his presidency.
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The report ranked Mexico with Pakistan as being equally jeopardized by potential governmental collapse.

Despite such reports, El Pasoan Veronica Callaghan, a border business leader, said she keeps running into people in the region who "are in denial about what is happening in Mexico."
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PeteEU said:
Give me a break. All this is another attempt of fear mongering to find boogie men that "will harm us and rape our women". We have seen it when it comes to communists and Muslims, and now that the right has lost power in the US, they will use any and all methods to drive fear into the populace so they can take power again and "do something about it". And considering that latinos are the new "enemy" to many on the right due to the immigration issue, and most come through Mexico, then it is only natural that the right would use language and "opinions" like this to drive fear into the average American.. after all it has worked with Communists and Muslims.

The chances of Mexico going into a civil war and collapse is as about the same chance that George W Bush goes to jail for the crap he did during his presidency.
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Considering that Im Hispanic descent, Im going to say that your full of bull****. The reason I even posted this story is because Mexico is our next door neighbor. Civil Wars tend to spill into other countries if they arent contained.
 
chevydriver1123 said:
Considering that Im Hispanic descent, Im going to say that your full of bull****. The reason I even posted this story is because Mexico is our next door neighbor. Civil Wars tend to spill into other countries if they arent contained.
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And the report is not one the public usually takes note of. No offense to the El Paso newspaper but the story wasn't broken by a major paper or news organization, so you can't really expect the administration was trying to "fear monger."
 
Ten decapited bodies were found recently in Texas-all from Mexi-drug runners. Mexico is bleeding in to our borders states in every bad way known. Their scum is here because the money is greater. They are now responsible for the majority of weed and meth in the USA with no end in sight. Thanks Billy Bob Clinton and Georgie Boy Bush you are two real smart mother f***ers.
 
PeteEU said:
Give me a break. All this is another attempt of fear mongering to find boogie men that "will harm us and rape our women". We have seen it when it comes to communists and Muslims, and now that the right has lost power in the US, they will use any and all methods to drive fear into the populace so they can take power again and "do something about it". And considering that latinos are the new "enemy" to many on the right due to the immigration issue, and most come through Mexico, then it is only natural that the right would use language and "opinions" like this to drive fear into the average American.. after all it has worked with Communists and Muslims.

The chances of Mexico going into a civil war and collapse is as about the same chance that George W Bush goes to jail for the crap he did during his presidency.
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Umm I don't know what you're talking about, but I have NEVER fear-mongered about Mexicans. In fact, I've often criticized those who do. I *welcome* immigration from Mexico.

That has NOTHING to do with the reality that Mexico is in the midst of an extremely brutal turf war between the drug cartels, and both the US and Mexico would be better off if we jointly ended the war on drugs. Denial does not make problems go away.
 
I'm very concerned about the Mexican governments ability to retain control over it's military and local police because of the influence of the drug cartels. The level of corruption is very deep. The cartels are actively recruiting soldiers in the areas they've been sent to patrol offering very generous pay rates.

Add to that the fact that the cartels are actually engaging the Mexican army in what amounts to small unit combat and you can begin to see a very precarious situation on our wide open and unprotected border. I can very easily accept that Chavez would see this an opportunity to "assist the Mexican people in their struggle."

If your goal was to undermine U.S. interventionism your best bet would be to force us to bring our troops home to deal with regional crises. Turning Mexico into a 1970/80's Guatemala would do just that. It's not as far from reality as we would like to think.
 
chevydriver1123 said:
The reason I even posted this story is because Mexico is our next door neighbor. Civil Wars tend to spill into other countries if they arent contained.
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That's true, but I have to ask yet again since you posted it, what does this have to do with Chavez\? You mentioned Chavez specifically is why I am asking. Was that just a slip and you meant the Mexico President?
 
The real question is, if Mexico collapses would we take it? I mean, it's probably big enough that we can get 4 states out of it, that gives us a full column. But the water is terrible, so I don't know if we'd want to take it. I'd rather have Canada, at least then Alaska wouldn't be so lonely.
 
Ikari said:
The real question is, if Mexico collapses would we take it? I mean, it's probably big enough that we can get 4 states out of it, that gives us a full column. But the water is terrible, so I don't know if we'd want to take it. I'd rather have Canada, at least then Alaska wouldn't be so lonely.
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If we don't clean up our act, it will be Canada taking over the USA....:(
 
chevydriver1123 said:
Considering that Im Hispanic descent, Im going to say that your full of bull****. The reason I even posted this story is because Mexico is our next door neighbor. Civil Wars tend to spill into other countries if they arent contained.
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Am I? I see... so there is no ill feeling towards the Hispanic community or Mexicans in the US by certain people on the political right..

But other than that, yes Civil Wars do tend to spill over borders, but Mexico is no where near a civil war. It is a criminal war, not unlike the mafia wars of various US cities, or the gang warfare in other US cities.. is the US also on the brink of civil war then? Is the on going mafia war in Naples, a prelude to the collapse of Italy and the EU and a massive European civil war?

So yes it is fear mongering by the right xenophobic minority that seem to have very large lungs, when we hear things like "Mexico possibly near civil war" or similar, and especially considering how the same people seem to want to have "enemies" and "issues" under every rock.. may it be so called liberals, commies, Muslims or illegal immigrants.
 
Kandahar said:
Umm I don't know what you're talking about, but I have NEVER fear-mongered about Mexicans. In fact, I've often criticized those who do. I *welcome* immigration from Mexico.
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never said it was you :)
 
PeteEU said:
Give me a break. All this is another attempt of fear mongering to find boogie men that "will harm us and rape our women". We have seen it when it comes to communists and Muslims, and now that the right has lost power in the US, they will use any and all methods to drive fear into the populace so they can take power again and "do something about it". And considering that latinos are the new "enemy" to many on the right due to the immigration issue, and most come through Mexico, then it is only natural that the right would use language and "opinions" like this to drive fear into the average American.. after all it has worked with Communists and Muslims.

The chances of Mexico going into a civil war and collapse is as about the same chance that George W Bush goes to jail for the crap he did during his presidency.
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Wow...another substanceless rant with nothing but off-base opinion and not one iota of fact. Who could have guessed it would have came from Petey.
 
PeteEU said:
But other than that, yes Civil Wars do tend to spill over borders, but Mexico is no where near a civil war. It is a criminal war, not unlike the mafia wars of various US cities, or the gang warfare in other US cities.. is the US also on the brink of civil war then? Is the on going mafia war in Naples, a prelude to the collapse of Italy and the EU and a massive European civil war?
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This shows a complete lack of understanding of how severe the problem is in Mexico. First of all, mafia wars simply do not exist in the United States anymore. Gang wars exist, but they're nowhere NEAR on the same scale as the Mexican drug cartels' war with each other and with the police. Juarez is an unbelievably brutal place, with one of the highest murder rates in the world...placing it on par with ghastly places like Caracas and Johannesburg. There were more murders in Juarez in 2008 than there were in Baghdad.
 
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PeteEU said:
The chances of Mexico going into a civil war and collapse is as about the same chance that George W Bush goes to jail for the crap he did during his presidency.
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I don't see this as so much a civil war, but more of guerilla-type warfare. If the Mexican government continues to fight, the cartels are only going to recruit more soldiers and fight back in totally unconventional ways. The Mexican government cannot compete with these cartels. That's why there is this warning of the collapse and it should be taken seriously.
 
Kandahar said:
This shows a complete lack of understanding of how severe the problem is in Mexico. First of all, mafia wars simply do not exist in the United States anymore. Gang wars exist, but they're nowhere NEAR on the same scale as the Mexican drug cartels' war with each other and with the police. Juarez is an unbelievably brutal place, with one of the highest murder rates in the world...placing it on par with ghastly places like Caracas and Johannesburg. There were more murders in Juarez in 2008 than there were in Baghdad.
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No I fully understand that the situation is very severe in parts of Mexico. And yes the murder capital was in Mexico in 2008, but a massive crime spree between rival gangs in a poor part of a country with the size and diversity of Mexico does not mean that the country is close to civil war..... and that is what I am trying to say.

The mafia wars of the 1930s were by the standards of the day, just as bloody and dangerous as what is happening in Mexico, does that mean the US was at the brink of civil war at the time?

The mafia wars in Italy has been going on for decades, with the mafia assassinating rivals, policemen and so on.. does that mean that Italy is on the brink of collapse?

The gangs of LA, and other cities murder each other over petty things, does that mean California is on the bring of civil war?

No of course not.

Should the US be worried about the drug war in Mexico? Hell yes, but not because of a possible non existent civil war in Mexico, but because the war is fuelled by among other things the drug use of Americans, and at some point if it has not already started, this war will spread into the US streets as the gangs will want to gain more territory, and I suspect the other drug gangs already in the US wont like that. I doubt the Russian and other Eastern gangs will be willing to give up turf... and they are not known for their nice tactics.
 
americanwoman said:
I don't see this as so much a civil war, but more of guerilla-type warfare. If the Mexican government continues to fight, the cartels are only going to recruit more soldiers and fight back in totally unconventional ways. The Mexican government cannot compete with these cartels. That's why there is this warning of the collapse and it should be taken seriously.
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Now that is a whole other matter.

Yes any government (democratic) can not compete with the money of the drug cartels.. after all look at Colombia.

But in the end, the US government, hell even Canada and other countries in the region will not allow the Mexican state to fall into a failed state because of a bunch of stupid drug lords.

In the end, when push comes to shove, the Mexican government will remove all democratic principles and hit hard against the drug gangs and with the full blessing and backing of the US and others. They will use death squad, kill family members, and do mass murder. They will torture and imprison people and restore order with a brutal fist.

Will it mean many deaths, and chaos in parts of the country.. yes, but it is not a civil war. After all I highly doubt that any political party or politician in Mexico will "back up" the drug lords actions, and since one of the main issues in a civil war is a political strife between parties, then.....
 
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