Private job losses mount, ominous for payrolls

Private job losses mount, ominous for payrolls | Markets | Hot Stocks | Reuters

Flash estimates say another 700.000 jobs were lost in the US in December, making a probable new unemployment rate at the end of the year 2008 of 7.3%...

How horrific..

the US unemployment has now cought up with Europe, and is predicted to race by in a hurry. Europes unemployment has for a long time been in the 7ish % area, while that in the US was as low as 3.8% at the same time..

I actually told all of you guys this some years ago, that it would happen, in some of my posts.. But no, you wouldnt listen..

Atm, I would not be surprised to see a future total economic collapse in the US, especially as a result of other bad news that your government is going to have a 2 trillion$ deficit on the federal budget next year. Tax incomes in the US are 2.6 trillion. So 2 trillion in deficits seems quite scary. People will just rush to wherever they can to have their US assets withdrawn, which will again lead to further decline..

I fear you are stuck in a bad downward spiral, which seems unlikely it will ever stop. And you are dragging other economies with you, Europe for example who is also experiencing economic setbacks, and China with slower growth, while the overall world economy will only grow around 2.5% next year.

Maximus Zeebra said:

Private job losses mount, ominous for payrolls | Markets | Hot Stocks | Reuters

Flash estimates say another 700.000 jobs were lost in the US in December, making a probable new unemployment rate at the end of the year 2008 of 7.3%...

How horrific..

the US unemployment has now cought up with Europe, and is predicted to race by in a hurry. Europes unemployment has for a long time been in the 7ish % area, while that in the US was as low as 3.8% at the same time..

I actually told all of you guys this some years ago, that it would happen, in some of my posts.. But no, you wouldnt listen..

Atm, I would not be surprised to see a future total economic collapse in the US, especially as a result of other bad news that your government is going to have a 2 trillion$ deficit on the federal budget next year. Tax incomes in the US are 2.6 trillion. So 2 trillion in deficits seems quite scary. People will just rush to wherever they can to have their US assets withdrawn, which will again lead to further decline..

I fear you are stuck in a bad downward spiral, which seems unlikely it will ever stop. And you are dragging other economies with you, Europe for example who is also experiencing economic setbacks, and China with slower growth, while the overall world economy will only grow around 2.5% next year.

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Dude . . .

We SO get it.

America sucks. Yes. We know. Get a frickin' new song already.

:roll:

Harshaw said:

Dude . . .

We SO get it.

America sucks. Yes. We know. Get a frickin' new song already.

:roll:

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No, you dont suck, but your crisis is so much huger than you can imagine. And you are throwing a combination of gasoline and wood on the fire.

Maximus Zeebra said:

No, you dont suck, but your crisis is so much huger than you can imagine. And you are throwing a combination of gasoline and wood on the fire.

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Really? How "huge" do we "imagine it"?

Never mind; you don't have a clue. Your pony show has one trick, and it's getting pretty played.

Harshaw said:

Really? How "huge" do we "imagine it"?

Never mind; you don't have a clue. Your pony show has one trick, and it's getting pretty played.

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Wow, all you Americans can do every time someone mention something negative about the US, justified or unjustified is pointing a finger at that someone as "anti-American".. No wonder that your downfall is faster than ever if thats the general attitude, just listen to yourself and never to anyone from the outside, thats just a very bad attitude which will only be further cause for bad things.

I am European, I want nothing more than for America to be stable and successfully, thats my only wish for American, other than that it is not really a concern of mine. Is that anti-American? Is giving warning anti-American?

If a drug user is warned by his friend that drug abuse is bad and that he MUST stop, then he will probably react in a very bad way, even reject the friend, but the reality is still that the person is using drugs, and that the person who is warning him is just actually trying to help, not hurt him or say that he is stupid.

Maximus Zeebra said:

Wow, all you Americans can do every time someone mention something negative about the US, justified or unjustified is pointing a finger at that someone as "anti-American"..

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No. We simply reserve it for those who can post nothing but. :roll:

Harshaw said:

No. We simply reserve it for those who can post nothing but. :roll:

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Then I suggest you start reading my posts. I would say 5% of them is real anti Americanism(criticism of attitudes and nation without reason), then an additional 15% perhaps could be conceived as anti American even though they arent. Then an additional 20% arent anti American at all, and could only be conceived as anti-Americans by people who is seeking to brand everything that isnt 100% positive about America as "anti-American". The remaning 60% doesnt really have anything to do with America in general, and most of those doesnt even mention America.

Maximus Zeebra said:

No, you dont suck, but your crisis is so much huger than you can imagine. And you are throwing a combination of gasoline and wood on the fire.

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How? we elected Obama, and huge overwhelming democrat majority....Thing will recover...or so I have been told.

DarkWizard12 said:

How? we elected Obama, and huge overwhelming democrat majority....Thing will recover...or so I have been told.

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How? By him accepting that the US government will run a deficit which accounts to huge parts of tax income, and in addition burn away 800 billion dollars in the rescue package, which since the US government is taking on more debt and have a huge deficit already will be hugely counterproductive. What the US ACTUALLY need to do is bring back faith in the US economy at home and internationally, that they could do by running a permanently fiscally responsible government and try somehow to close the gap between exports and imports.
Sure, US housing is better than anywhere in the world, but what does that matter for foreign investors? They look at the total economy, and if the government runs a 2 trillion dollar deficit on a 4 trillion dollar federal budget, than investors will just panic. If not even governments can manage to be fiscally responsible, then why would people assume companies, or even people in the US are fiscally responsible, and its economy stable and sustainable. When people do not believe these things, they will flee the economy. Just look at the UK, people panicked and lost faith in the economy, as a result of huge amounts of international investors withdrawing their UK/pound holdings, the value of the pound plummited, making people from the UK poorer in comparison to the rest of the world than they were before. Sure cheaper goods and more exports, could potentially make up for that, but in a negative cycle that is far from sure, and a more likely result is that the economy will just keep on deteriorating because of other factors, like decreasing consumption, less gross fixed capita formation, less circulating money and so on.
The panic in the UK is largely over, for the worst of it, but the long term economic picture is rather and possibly the grimmest in the world. There has not yet been a panic over the US economy, but negative numbers and factors just keep rolling out, which is why the international community over time has lost SOME faith in the US economy and withdrawn assets, stopped investing there, which is partly the reason for the weaker dollar. The opposit is true for Europe, the Euro strenghtening is because people trust in the stable Eurozone and sound fiscal policies, but not even Europe can avoid setbacks when the US and the UK is declining so much as they are, no matter how much the international market believe in the Eurozone, no matter hows much investments keep flowing in. After all the US partnership with Europe, amounts for a huge part of our economy.
As a result of all this, the Euro have weakened lately, but our all over economy and stability is still far stronger and better. And the Euro isnt anywhere close to hitting parity with the dollar, yet the Euro fall(relative small) will make up for some exports and manufacturing discomforts, and the falling demand from the US and the UK.
I am glad to see there is no panic about the US yet, where all numbers just roll out of control and the dollar collapses, nor do I ever want to see that, but it seems to be a very scary and realistic possibility in the future(next 3 or even 5 or 10 years).

Structurally all current capitalistic economies will have to change structurally, or else the capitalist world will see an overall declining economy that will not stop declining until we have changed our fundamental ways. The chase for profits and short term joys only leads to lack of socially and economically fundamental progress of our economies, that needs to change.
Capitalism needs to change into a capitalist-socialist-prestige type of long term planning economies in order to get over the current bumps, and in order for that to happen even politics must be reformed and a lot of other factors also changed..

I am not going to go on further, but my long term view is rather generally negative, the long term view on the US is very either or, but generally negative, the long term view on Europe is generally negative as well, but I have hopes since we have a different political system and generally are more eagerly adopting a part "state planned" economy with capitalism and socialism in the mix. However I do not know how "state planning" of the economy will progress in Europe, probably it will change for the negative or not change at all, which will be negative. For the rest of the world I basically have dim hopes that they will slowly change for the better while we in the west decline in comparison(are slowly cought up to). I have great hopes for China btw, but are not sure of the stability of China and its ability to handle obstacles and bumps.

One last interesting question I ask myself, "is Russia actually completely collapsing, or have already"? i have seen some scary numbers, but believe the Russian economy should keep on roaring like it always does, under performing greatly.

Maximus Zeebra said:

Atm, I would not be surprised to see a future total economic collapse in the US, especially as a result of other bad news that your government is going to have a 2 trillion$ deficit on the federal budget next year. Tax incomes in the US are 2.6 trillion. So 2 trillion in deficits seems quite scary

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Link? It sounds like you just made that up.

Maximus Zeebra said:

Private job losses mount, ominous for payrolls | Markets | Hot Stocks | Reuters

Flash estimates say another 700.000 jobs were lost in the US in December, making a probable new unemployment rate at the end of the year 2008 of 7.3%...

How horrific..

the US unemployment has now cought up with Europe, and is predicted to race by in a hurry. Europes unemployment has for a long time been in the 7ish % area, while that in the US was as low as 3.8% at the same time..

I actually told all of you guys this some years ago, that it would happen, in some of my posts.. But no, you wouldnt listen..

Atm, I would not be surprised to see a future total economic collapse in the US, especially as a result of other bad news that your government is going to have a 2 trillion$ deficit on the federal budget next year. Tax incomes in the US are 2.6 trillion. So 2 trillion in deficits seems quite scary. People will just rush to wherever they can to have their US assets withdrawn, which will again lead to further decline..

I fear you are stuck in a bad downward spiral, which seems unlikely it will ever stop. And you are dragging other economies with you, Europe for example who is also experiencing economic setbacks, and China with slower growth, while the overall world economy will only grow around 2.5% next year.

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I am aw struck...but wait ,you forgot to look into your crystal ball and tell us the solution to the problem. I saw this comeing years ago too,and I know the answer to the problem. Its to easy though,lets do it the hard way.

Maximus Zeebra said:

No, you dont suck, but your crisis is so much huger than you can imagine. And you are throwing a combination of gasoline and wood on the fire.

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WRONG ! We are throwing outsourceing,illegal immigration,and affirmative action onto the fire.It`s all very scientific.We call it the fire triangle.

The Problem here is Iraq. Its cost us half a trillion dollars. What I would do is get out of Iraq, and then stem the money that would be saved from this toward, not to failing banks, but to the many "surviving banks" as LOANS, to be paid back in full in 4, 5 years at 0 interest, at the same time ending the Community Reinestment act. Once the financial crisis is solved and the banks are able to give out loans again, this time responsibly, I would then call for the loans to be repaid(and of course, I would give them more time to pay if they needed it).

After that, bam, no more deficit and our financial sector is fixed.

RightinNYC said:

Link? It sounds like you just made that up.

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BBC NEWS | Business | US deficit 'to hit $1 trillion'

bbc said:

The sharp slowdown in the US economy will push the federal budget deficit to more than $1 trillion, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) says

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USA today puts the figure at 1.2 trillion.

bbc said:

The projected deficit does not include the extra $800bn spending being planned by US President-elect Barack Obama.

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Thats almost 2 trillion..

2008 United States federal budget - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

wikipedia said:

Estimated receipts for fiscal year 2008 were $2.66 trillion.

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wikipedia said:

Mandatory spending: $1.788 trillion (+4.2%)

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wikipedia said:

Discretionary spending: $1.114 trillion (+3.1%)

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That makes the total cost(before Iraq and Afgan costs) $2.9 trillion, or a budget deficit for 2008 of 0.24 trillion.

wikipedia said:

War in Afghanistan are not part included in the regular bidget. Instead they are funded through special appropriations.

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(Appropriations are the same category that most likely the 800 billion dollar stimulus package of Obama would fall into. )

Financial cost of the Iraq War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

FY2008 Bush administration has proposed around $190 billion for the Iraq War and Afghanistan

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I have read in a source that I cannot find that 84 billion of those were already approved in early budget year 2008 and that the remaining will(or now have) been approved to be part of the 2009 budget period(ending april or something)..

I cannot find concrete numbers on the Afghan war, but the total cost have reached over 200 billion since 2001. So its safe to assume the annual costs to be around 40ish billion. Lets say total warcost of Iraq and Afganistan for 2008 is 225 billion.

That brings budget deficit of 2008 to a total of 0.5 trillion.


The reason that deficits will increase further next year is that tax incomes will fall(slightly or noticeably), and that expenditures will increase like it does every year.
I have no idea where BBC, USAtoday and other news sources got their numbers from, but its seems very likely yes that regular deficits will be at $1 trillion

We will have a budget deficit of approx 1.2 trillion this year, correct. The $775b that Obama is proposing is for next year, not this year. Thus, I see nothing that indicates we will have a $2t deficit next year as you claimed. I think it's more likely that it will be under $1t.

DarkWizard12 said:

The Problem here is Iraq. Its cost us half a trillion dollars. What I would do is get out of Iraq, and then stem the money that would be saved from this toward, not to failing banks, but to the many "surviving banks" as LOANS, to be paid back in full in 4, 5 years at 0 interest, at the same time ending the Community Reinestment act. Once the financial crisis is solved and the banks are able to give out loans again, this time responsibly, I would then call for the loans to be repaid(and of course, I would give them more time to pay if they needed it).

After that, bam, no more deficit and our financial sector is fixed.

Click to expand...

Without the wars you are still running annual 300 billion $ deficits. I can tell you for example that interest rate payments on government debts for the US government accounts for around 250 billion $ a year. So introducing fiscal responsibility and stopping the wars and paying off debts would put the federal budget into surplus. But then again, debt have to be payed off from some kind of funds, and the only cuts you can allow yorur self is military costs. The debt is 10 trillion, even by cutting military spending with 200 billion a year, it would take you 25 years to halve the government debts and additional 20ish years to get rid of it altogether.


That however is only part of the problem. Trade deficits, corporate debt and private debt is also a huge problem, mostly trade deficit. In all capitalistic countries private debt and national debt is also a problem, but in most cases the national debt is most severe in the US.

RightinNYC said:

We will have a budget deficit of approx 1.2 trillion this year, correct. The $775b that Obama is proposing is for next year, not this year. Thus, I see nothing that indicates we will have a $2t deficit next year as you claimed. I think it's more likely that it will be under $1t.

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Nope.. You will have a deficit of 0.5 trillion in the budget year of 2008. In 2009 it will increase to $1 trillion according to the BBC, and Obamas stimulus package is for 2009 budget year, right? That would put total deficit of 2009 close to $2 trillion. Even if you stop the war in Iraq and cut down 100 billion on military spending, your deficit will still be around $1.5 trillion in total.

Ahhr. I see i got that a bit wrong. But the average including the stimulous package will be $1.5 trillion this and the next budget year.

Anyways, its a SEVERE problem and an alarm to everyone who have US based assets..

Maximus Zeebra said:

Nope.. You will have a deficit of 0.5 trillion in the budget year of 2008. In 2009 it will increase to $1 trillion according to the BBC, and Obamas stimulus package is for 2009 budget year, right? That would put total deficit of 2009 close to $2 trillion. Even if you stop the war in Iraq and cut down 100 billion on military spending, your deficit will still be around $1.5 trillion in total.

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My apologies, half of the Obama package is for 2009 while half is for 2010. If those things happen in a vacuum, the deficit could approach $1.6T. However, I think it's incredibly unlikely that will happen, and there is almost no chance that it will reach the $2T level.

Edit: Further, the $1.2T figure comes from an CBO estimate. The CBO uses a different method than most other analysts, because it calculates the money spent on the TARP program as a loss, rather than as an investment with possible losses down the road.

For example, the budget office estimated that the present-value cost of the Treasury Department’s $700 billion bailout program for financial institutions — known as the Troubled Assets Relief Program — would be $180 billion in 2009. The agency said that estimate was based on its judgment of the program’s risks and probable losses over time.

In addition, the budget office said it included all the money used in propping up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage finance companies that the Treasury seized in September and put into a conservatorship. Those costs would add $240 billion to the deficit in 2009.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/08/business/economy/08deficit.html?em

If calculated the way that other agencies do, that would make the figure more like $780b before Obama's stimulus.

RightinNYC said:

Link? It sounds like you just made that up.

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Come on, NYC, you know he did.

Maximus Zeebra said:

Ahhr. I see i got that a bit wrong. But the average including the stimulous package will be $1.5 trillion this and the next budget year.

Anyways, its a SEVERE problem and an alarm to everyone who have US based assets..

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Maximus that is how our capitalism based economy works. It is an ebb and flow. It goes up and down depending on many factors.

We have had 3 major depressions and many recessions since 1797. It is the way it works. Periods of inflation followed by periods of deflation (like now.)

Now I am no expert on economics by any means. I have no idea how the world market will be affected or affect the US economy. But we are not headed for a collapse by any means. We have weathered much worse.

This chart should clue you in when you see the long list of panics, depressions etc...

List of recessions in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

But this time its just worse. And any strong future economy is not simply capitalist. IT just doesnt work out like it should. Focus is too much on profits and too little on progress and which things are actually useful for the society. In the end capitalism always have to collapse and fall apart. I think this is whats happening right now, US are furthest ahead as a capitalist nation, and will fall apart first, then Europe will follow if we do not make some changes, and then any other capitalist place..

Same for democracy, like it is now, its a certain way to general public retardation and political irrelevancy.

The world hasnt only lost faith in your economy, but it is really largely starting to loose faith in your models as well. That is harder to fix.

Maximus Zeebra said:

But this time its just worse.

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Worse than the great depression? That is laughable.

Maximus Zeebra said:

And any strong future economy is not simply capitalist. IT just doesnt work out like it should. Focus is too much on profits and too little on progress and which things are actually useful for the society. In the end capitalism always have to collapse and fall apart. I think this is whats happening right now, US are furthest ahead as a capitalist nation, and will fall apart first, then Europe will follow if we do not make some changes, and then any other capitalist place..

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In the end it has to collapse? Do you know anything about economics at all or are you just assuming with no real information?

Maximus Zeebra said:

Same for democracy, like it is now, its a certain way to general public retardation and political irrelevancy.

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We are not a democracy, we are a representative republic. France is a democracy, the EU is a form of democracy.

So you are saying that democracy leads to "public retardation and political irrelevancy." I would agree with that assessment.

"The United States is, indeed, a republic, not a democracy. - ThisNation.com--Is the United States a democracy?

Maximus Zeebra said:

The world hasnt only lost faith in your economy, but it is really largely starting to loose faith in your models as well. That is harder to fix.

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According to who? You?

Maximus Zeebra said:

But this time its just worse. And any strong future economy is not simply capitalist. IT just doesnt work out like it should. Focus is too much on profits and too little on progress and which things are actually useful for the society. In the end capitalism always have to collapse and fall apart. I think this is whats happening right now, US are furthest ahead as a capitalist nation, and will fall apart first, then Europe will follow if we do not make some changes, and then any other capitalist place..

Same for democracy, like it is now, its a certain way to general public retardation and political irrelevancy.

The world hasnt only lost faith in your economy, but it is really largely starting to loose faith in your models as well. That is harder to fix.

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Believe it or not, I'm going to need more than your hunch to believe that this will be the worst economic collapse in the past 225 years.

RightinNYC said:

Believe it or not, I'm going to need more than your hunch to believe that this will be the worst economic collapse in the past 225 years.

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I dont know if I even care to debate this. its such a HUGE topic. Not suitable for this thread at least. I believe what I believe because capitalism and democracy are both reaching a maturity where both of them are collapsing, both are unsustainable models that ALWAYS will lead to instability, confusion, stagnation, decline and collapse.
If capitalism by some miracle is rescued this time, it will eventually collapse anyways. Politics dominated by democracy will always lead to an intellectual, political and governmental decline and long term collapse.
Just look at politics in the US today, as compared with intellectual politics of the past, look at what it has become, and is becoming slowly in all democratic countries.
Capitalism will never work as a good model, because a society needs stability and sustainable development, not speculation and speculation based development, bust and booms, that just aint going to work..

I know this is a completely unsatisfying explanation, perhaps even strange to comprehend the deeper meaning of it, but if you care for it we could debate it in another thread or two.

The financial crisis we see now is just a result of a bad economic model, simply put, a good model would have no such thing. :mrgreen: