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Second-quarter GDP plunged by worst-ever 32.9% amid virus-induced shutdown

Kushinator

Kushinator

I'm not-low all the time
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The U.S. economy saw the biggest plunge in activity it has ever known in the second quarter, though it wasn’t quite as bad as feared.Gross domestic product from April to June plunged 32.9% on an annualized basis, according to the Commerce Department’s first reading on the data released Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a drop of 34.7%.


Still, it was the worst drop ever, with the closest previously coming in mid-1921.
Click to expand...


The rest of the article can be found here.

It looks as though the Atlanta Fed GDP NOW indicator is extremely accurate, as their projection for Q2 2020 rGDP growth:

eb9ee978a9.png


Hence, this recent data release has only validated the accuracy of this particular forecast.

A couple points to note:


  • CPI and Core CPI fell by 1.9% and 1.1% respectively
  • Current dollar personal income increased more than 600% ($1.39 trillion vs $231 billion for Q1 2020)
  • Personal Outlays fell by $1.57 trillion

This was the largest quarterly decline on record. Keep in mind this article is talking about real gross domestic product change in percentage.

IMO, the economy is going to continue to underperform well into 2020. So while this was the largest quarterly decline on record, a sign of actual recovery would be an upswing in Q3 above 32.9%. Remember... when something falls by 32%, it must subsequently grow by 64% to get even (ignoring opportunity cost).
 
Much to the overjoyed delight of liberals.

Now if we can just keep those pesky kids from going to school.
 
As long as we have this virus with us, the economy is going to be doing significantly worse than it could have been.

We need to get the number of cases back to zero as soon as possible via mandatory mask-wearing, distance learning, and continued closures of bars, churches, and other high-risk venues.

Then we can get the economy back to full steam. Not through pipedreams such as "herd immunity," which will never happen without a vaccine.
 
Kushinator said:
The rest of the article can be found here.

It looks as though the Atlanta Fed GDP NOW indicator is extremely accurate, as their projection for Q2 2020 rGDP growth:

eb9ee978a9.png


Hence, this recent data release has only validated the accuracy of this particular forecast.

A couple points to note:


  • CPI and Core CPI fell by 1.9% and 1.1% respectively
  • Current dollar personal income increased more than 600% ($1.39 trillion vs $231 billion for Q1 2020)
  • Personal Outlays fell by $1.57 trillion

This was the largest quarterly decline on record. Keep in mind this article is talking about real gross domestic product change in percentage.

IMO, the economy is going to continue to underperform well into 2020. So while this was the largest quarterly decline on record, a sign of actual recovery would be an upswing in Q3 above 32.9%. Remember... when something falls by 32%, it must subsequently grow by 64% to get even (ignoring opportunity cost).
Click to expand...

Geezus. That's bad.

Buy Goya. And Ivanka shoes. And MyPillows.
 
Erod said:
Much to the overjoyed delight of liberals.

Now if we can just keep those pesky kids from going to school.
Click to expand...

Nothing about this disastrous presidency has been a "delight."
 
Erod said:
Much to the overjoyed delight of liberals.

Now if we can just keep those pesky kids from going to school.
Click to expand...


Why do you want to kill little Jonny and his grandparents?
 
Well...I guess the good news is there's a massive amount of pent up demand. Once the virus has been taken care of (whenever that is) people will be going out and spending a ton.

I know once a vaccine is available I'm looking forward to getting back to things.
 
tres borrachos said:
Geezus. That's bad.

Buy Goya. And Ivanka shoes. And MyPillows.
Click to expand...



Build a bunker. Stash cash/gold. Canned goods and water. No matter what, forget the mother-in-law. Or, hide a gun with one bullet.
 
Erod said:
Much to the overjoyed delight of liberals.

Now if we can just keep those pesky kids from going to school.
Click to expand...

Oh look, another Trumpist telling stupid lies about the left.
 
iliveonramen said:
Well...I guess the good news is there's a massive amount of pent up demand. Once the virus has been taken care of (whenever that is) people will be going out and spending a ton.

I know once a vaccine is available I'm looking forward to getting back to things.
Click to expand...


The biggest problem is going to be the debts run up by so many different groups that despite the pent up demand the money won’t be available to fill it
 
Erod said:
Much to the overjoyed delight of liberals.

Now if we can just keep those pesky kids from going to school.
Click to expand...

No, actually. It's the fault of COVID, and the continued economic damage will be in large part because we failed to contain the pandemic. Wear your mask, social distance, wash your hands. That's how to get the economy going again, when people can work, shop, play without fear of catching this thing.
 
A pandemic sweeps the world which was made much worst because China lied about what was happening! To help slow the pandemic from
overwhelming our medical system the country was shut down for months. So now some are surprised that the economy took a tremendous loss?
 
Kushinator said:
The rest of the article can be found here.

It looks as though the Atlanta Fed GDP NOW indicator is extremely accurate, as their projection for Q2 2020 rGDP growth:

eb9ee978a9.png


Hence, this recent data release has only validated the accuracy of this particular forecast.

A couple points to note:


  • CPI and Core CPI fell by 1.9% and 1.1% respectively
  • Current dollar personal income increased more than 600% ($1.39 trillion vs $231 billion for Q1 2020)
  • Personal Outlays fell by $1.57 trillion

This was the largest quarterly decline on record. Keep in mind this article is talking about real gross domestic product change in percentage.

IMO, the economy is going to continue to underperform well into 2020. So while this was the largest quarterly decline on record, a sign of actual recovery would be an upswing in Q3 above 32.9%. Remember... when something falls by 32%, it must subsequently grow by 64% to get even (ignoring opportunity cost).
Click to expand...
That even-doubling ratio (2:1) only takes place at a decrease of exactly -50% (-1/2). But in this case (-32%), the growth required to get back to even would be +47% (not 64%).

Not wanting to be pedantic, but since we're talking numbers I thought I'd put that out.

However, that's not to detract from your original point - that it will take a much larger percentage than 32% to get back to break even. It's a very good point, and your readers are better informed for your having made it!

Thanks for the OP. :thumbs:
 
Erod said:
Much to the overjoyed delight of liberals.

Now if we can just keep those pesky kids from going to school.
Click to expand...
Or, how about we address the pandemic - so we can have both a good economy and an educated & well socialized progeny?
 
Phys251 said:
As long as we have this virus with us, the economy is going to be doing significantly worse than it could have been.

We need to get the number of cases back to zero as soon as possible via mandatory mask-wearing, distance learning, and continued closures of bars, churches, and other high-risk venues.

Then we can get the economy back to full steam. Not through pipedreams such as "herd immunity," which will never happen without a vaccine.
Click to expand...
Bingo! Without addressing the pandemic firstly, all else is doomed to failure & misery. However by addressing the pandemic, the economy & our institutes of learning will right themselves.

This really isn't rocket science ...
 
tres borrachos said:
Geezus. That's bad.

Buy Goya. And Ivanka shoes. And MyPillows.
Click to expand...
And Hydroxychloroquine! Put that little money you have left into Trump's & his partners' pockets! Be a good little Trumper!
 
Greenbeard said:
Nothing about this disastrous presidency has been a "delight."
Click to expand...
Most amazing is Trump's, "Keep America Great Again", 2020 campaign slogan.

What about our current lives would we want to "keep"? This guy's in La La Land!
 
Erod said:
Much to the overjoyed delight of liberals.

Now if we can just keep those pesky kids from going to school.
Click to expand...

Amazing isn't it how the shutdown economy promoted by the left isn't a cause?
 
Chomsky said:
Most amazing is Trump's, "Keep America Great Again", 2020 campaign slogan.

What about our current lives would we want to "keep"? This guy's in La La Land!
Click to expand...

Ok, waiting for the Biden response and liberal solution, what did you expect from a shutdown economy to prevent the spread? It is a lot easier placing blame than accepting responsibility
 
Conservative said:
Ok, waiting for the Biden response and liberal solution, what did you expect from a shutdown economy to prevent the spread? It is a lot easier placing blame than accepting responsibility
Click to expand...

Step 1: Dump Trump.
 
Damn the Trump economy is substantially worse than Obama's. Like the Bush economy.
 
Chomsky said:
Bingo! Without addressing the pandemic firstly, all else is doomed to failure & misery. However by addressing the pandemic, the economy & our institutes of learning will right themselves.

This really isn't rocket science ...
Click to expand...

Right, Presidential responsibility to take control of the cities and local communities then when the problem is solved turning them back over to the governors and mayors? Liberals always make such great arguments and do a great job placing blame, never accepting any responsibility

This is exactly the play book that elected Obama, create negative news and press, put a bureaucrat in charge, get massive social spending, and fight then to retain it when rejected by the public. Great recession my ass, shutdown of the economy because of a pandemic causing GDP loss, Trump's fault. Predictable and unacceptable rhetoric
 
Conservative said:
Amazing isn't it how the shutdown economy promoted by the left isn't a cause?
Click to expand...
Yeah, the entire world shutdown just to stick it to Trump's re-election chances.
 
Conservative said:
Right, Presidential responsibility to take control of the cities and local communities then when the problem is solved turning them back over to the governors and mayors? Liberals always make such great arguments and do a great job placing blame, never accepting any responsibility

This is exactly the play book that elected Obama, create negative news and press, put a bureaucrat in charge, get massive social spending, and fight then to retain it when rejected by the public. Great recession my ass, shutdown of the economy because of a pandemic causing GDP loss, Trump's fault. Predictable and unacceptable rhetoric
Click to expand...

Ah, Con's strawman. All Trump had to do was what every other leader in the world did -- recognize there was a problem and listen to the medical experts. Instead, Trump spent months wishing it didn't exist and giving advice that is contrary to medical advise -- and he's STILL doing it.
 
Greenbeard said:
Step 1: Dump Trump.
Click to expand...

Right, and put another career multi millionaire public servant in the WH to do exactly what? Really easy for people like you to divert blame from your own state and local communities just like you did during the 08 recession
 
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