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More Voters Rule Out Trump Than Biden

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Michael Cole

Michael Cole

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More Voters Rule Out Trump Than Biden | Monmouth University Polling Institute

A comprehensive poll from Monmouth, with many interesting results and trends.

A couple things...

West Long Branch, NJ – Half of the nation’s electorate says they have ruled out voting for Donald Trump in November, while 4 in 10 say the same about Joe Biden.

...and

“Half of all registered voters have ruled out backing Trump. Trump showed in 2016 that he can thread the needle, but these results suggest the president has even less room for error in 2020. He must convert some of those unlikely supporters if he is to win a second term,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

A key difference from four years ago is that fewer voters have a negative opinion of the Democratic nominee. Biden’s rating stands at 44% favorable and 44% unfavorable. It was 42%–49% in early June. Hillary Clinton’s rating in July 2016 was 34% favorable and 52% unfavorable. Trump currently has a negative 38% favorable and 55% unfavorable opinion. It was 38%–57% in early June. As a candidate four years ago, he held a 31% favorable and 53% unfavorable rating.

Trump's favorability is way under water, and with half the electorate having ruled out voting for Trump, what strategy can Trump possibly use to turn things around at this stage? People who have ruled out Trump are not going to change their minds easily, and barring some unforeseen event, I fail to see how Trump moves his favorability rating in a positive direction.

Though Trump's rating is a bit better than in 2016, Biden pulling even at 44/44 is a 7 point swing from last month. Combined with fund raising totals, Biden has the clear momentum.
 
They’re rolling him out very slowly.

After all, when your opponent is self emulating, there’s little reason to interrupt him.
 
This isn't surprising at all. But I think it might still be possible that polls will narrow down as we get closer to election day.
 
If we look at the breakdown of voters who supported Trump in 2016, the largest groups of voters sorted by age, were in the range of people age 50 to 65+. These are the people that are the most vulnerable if infected with Covid-19. These are the voters that know Trump let them down. And these are the voters that will make Trump a one-term president.

Screenshot-2020-07-03-2-12.png
 
TomFitz said:
They’re rolling him out very slowly.

After all, when your opponent is self emulating, there’s little reason to interrupt him.
Click to expand...

I'm beyond impressed with the Democrats this cycle. I think they chose the perfect candidate, and he's being handled with great skill and precision. I always expect the Democrats to blunder somewhere along the way, but so far Biden is batting 1.000
 
Michael Cole said:
More Voters Rule Out Trump Than Biden | Monmouth University Polling Institute

A comprehensive poll from Monmouth, with many interesting results and trends.

A couple things...

West Long Branch, NJ – Half of the nation’s electorate says they have ruled out voting for Donald Trump in November, while 4 in 10 say the same about Joe Biden.

...and

“Half of all registered voters have ruled out backing Trump. Trump showed in 2016 that he can thread the needle, but these results suggest the president has even less room for error in 2020. He must convert some of those unlikely supporters if he is to win a second term,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

A key difference from four years ago is that fewer voters have a negative opinion of the Democratic nominee. Biden’s rating stands at 44% favorable and 44% unfavorable. It was 42%–49% in early June. Hillary Clinton’s rating in July 2016 was 34% favorable and 52% unfavorable. Trump currently has a negative 38% favorable and 55% unfavorable opinion. It was 38%–57% in early June. As a candidate four years ago, he held a 31% favorable and 53% unfavorable rating.

Trump's favorability is way under water, and with half the electorate having ruled out voting for Trump, what strategy can Trump possibly use to turn things around at this stage? People who have ruled out Trump are not going to change their minds easily, and barring some unforeseen event, I fail to see how Trump moves his favorability rating in a positive direction.

Though Trump's rating is a bit better than in 2016, Biden pulling even at 44/44 is a 7 point swing from last month. Combined with fund raising totals, Biden has the clear momentum.
Click to expand...

I'd rule out Trump before pretty much anyone, including a corpse.
 
Michael Cole said:
More Voters Rule Out Trump Than Biden | Monmouth University Polling Institute

A comprehensive poll from Monmouth, with many interesting results and trends.

A couple things...

West Long Branch, NJ – Half of the nation’s electorate says they have ruled out voting for Donald Trump in November, while 4 in 10 say the same about Joe Biden.

...and

“Half of all registered voters have ruled out backing Trump. Trump showed in 2016 that he can thread the needle, but these results suggest the president has even less room for error in 2020. He must convert some of those unlikely supporters if he is to win a second term,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

A key difference from four years ago is that fewer voters have a negative opinion of the Democratic nominee. Biden’s rating stands at 44% favorable and 44% unfavorable. It was 42%–49% in early June. Hillary Clinton’s rating in July 2016 was 34% favorable and 52% unfavorable. Trump currently has a negative 38% favorable and 55% unfavorable opinion. It was 38%–57% in early June. As a candidate four years ago, he held a 31% favorable and 53% unfavorable rating.

Trump's favorability is way under water, and with half the electorate having ruled out voting for Trump, what strategy can Trump possibly use to turn things around at this stage? People who have ruled out Trump are not going to change their minds easily, and barring some unforeseen event, I fail to see how Trump moves his favorability rating in a positive direction.

Though Trump's rating is a bit better than in 2016, Biden pulling even at 44/44 is a 7 point swing from last month. Combined with fund raising totals, Biden has the clear momentum.
Click to expand...

Well maybe he, Xi, and Putin can arrange something that will pull Trump's numbers back up quick.
 
Sanjja said:
This isn't surprising at all. But I think it might still be possible that polls will narrow down as we get closer to election day.
Click to expand...

Entirely possible, but to come back to victory from a double-digit lag means a lot of things have to go very right for Trump and go very badly for Biden in the next few months. Trump has no chance of winning the popular vote and if turnout is high, the gap will be bigger than between him and Clinton.

Now on squeezing through via the electoral college again, who knows...
 
Can the GOP supress the vote enough to win is the question.

They know that Romney lost WI, but he won more votes than Trump did.

This fact is certainly not lost on the GOP and the Trump campaign.
 
Michael Cole said:
I'm beyond impressed with the Democrats this cycle. I think they chose the perfect candidate, and he's being handled with great skill and precision. I always expect the Democrats to blunder somewhere along the way, but so far Biden is batting 1.000
Click to expand...

Trump is out there stomping the campaign trail doing rallies, endangering lives with nobody wearing masks, and yet, he's losing in the polls. All Biden has done is a couple of speeches to an empty room and some brief comments from his 'basement' -- and he's leading by 12 points nationally. But no, we can't trust polls and the election is still five months away, a lot can happen in five months. I just don't see Trump coming out any other way with the way he's handling the pandemic other than holding the ****ty end of the stick. But when polls in Florida show Biden leading, that's a very bad sign for him.
 
HumblePi said:
Trump is out there stomping the campaign trail doing rallies, endangering lives with nobody wearing masks, and yet, he's losing in the polls. All Biden has done is a couple of speeches to an empty room and some brief comments from his 'basement' -- and he's leading by 12 points nationally. But no, we can't trust polls and the election is still five months away, a lot can happen in five months. I just don't see Trump coming out any other way with the way he's handling the pandemic other than holding the ****ty end of the stick. But when polls in Florida show Biden leading, that's a very bad sign for him.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I don't know if you like James Carville, but here's a 6 minute interview where old-as-dirt James tells Democrats to grow up and accept the fact that they're gonna win. I like Carville. Spunky septuagenarian.

James Carville: There is no chance Trump will be re-elected
 
j brown's body said:
Can the GOP supress the vote enough to win is the question.

They know that Romney lost WI, but he won more votes than Trump did.

This fact is certainly not lost on the GOP and the Trump campaign.
Click to expand...

This is a serious concern, but their attempts in WI earlier this year failed miserably.

If the enthusiasm is high, and Biden is leading by 10 on election day, I'd say no, the GOP cannot suppress enough votes to win, but I'm sure they will try.
 
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poweRob said:
I'll just leave this here...

Political Polls
@Politics_Polls
·
#National
@MonmouthPoll, By Age

18-34:
Biden 54% (+19)
Trump 35%
.
35-49:
Biden 54% (+14)
Trump 40%
.
50-64:
Biden 49% (+5)
Trump 44%
.
65+:
Biden 59% (+21)
Trump 38%​

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1279140227353841667?s=20
Click to expand...

So what are the odds an October vaccine will convert the older voters? What are the odds of an October vaccine? Will Trump try to sell more HCQ-style snake oil?

The irony of Trump's base turning on him because of covid is brilliant.

This Tweet expresses my opinion:
Old people relate to Biden, not Trump. Also, his policies (or lack thereof) are killing them.

I was thinking the same thing. Trump's criticisms of Biden's mental capacity may be backfiring on him, as Joe Biden simply acts old, not demented.
 
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Michael Cole said:
More Voters Rule Out Trump Than Biden | Monmouth University Polling Institute

A comprehensive poll from Monmouth, with many interesting results and trends.

A couple things...

West Long Branch, NJ – Half of the nation’s electorate says they have ruled out voting for Donald Trump in November, while 4 in 10 say the same about Joe Biden.

...and

“Half of all registered voters have ruled out backing Trump. Trump showed in 2016 that he can thread the needle, but these results suggest the president has even less room for error in 2020. He must convert some of those unlikely supporters if he is to win a second term,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

A key difference from four years ago is that fewer voters have a negative opinion of the Democratic nominee. Biden’s rating stands at 44% favorable and 44% unfavorable. It was 42%–49% in early June. Hillary Clinton’s rating in July 2016 was 34% favorable and 52% unfavorable. Trump currently has a negative 38% favorable and 55% unfavorable opinion. It was 38%–57% in early June. As a candidate four years ago, he held a 31% favorable and 53% unfavorable rating.

Trump's favorability is way under water, and with half the electorate having ruled out voting for Trump, what strategy can Trump possibly use to turn things around at this stage? People who have ruled out Trump are not going to change their minds easily, and barring some unforeseen event, I fail to see how Trump moves his favorability rating in a positive direction.

Though Trump's rating is a bit better than in 2016, Biden pulling even at 44/44 is a 7 point swing from last month. Combined with fund raising totals, Biden has the clear momentum.
Click to expand...

This jives with RCP averages showing Biden up on Trump 49.3 to 40.5 as to the popular vote.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden

a 10 point advantage for Biden as he was ruled out by 40% to being ruled out by 50% for Trump. Then there's the independent vote which shows Trump at 35%, Biden at 43%, 9% saying third party with the rest undecided. In 2016 Trump won the independent vote 46-42 over Hillary with 12% voting against both by casting a ballot for a third party candidate. Trump's present 35% is 11 points lower than the percentage of the independent vote he received in 2016. Biden is but a single point higher than what Hillary received in 2016. Even so that's an overall swing of 12 points in the Democrat's favor.

What we don't know from Monmouth is the amount of voters who ruled out both candidates or disliked both candidates. In 2016 according to Gallup 25% of all Americans disliked both Trump and Clinton which included 54% of independents.

One in Four Americans Dislike Both Presidential Candidates

Another interesting aspect is there are but 10% of all voters who haven't decided on a candidate this year, back in 2016, the first week of July Hillary had a 41-37 advantage over Trump, which left a huge pool of 22% in the undecided column vs only 10% this year. Trump didn't have to convince a single Hillary supporter to jump her ship for the Trump train back in 2016. He could make up that 4% deficit out of that big pool of 22% who hadn't decided yet. This year, Trump will have to convince some Biden supporters to desert him in favor of himself. Usually not an easy task. He doesn't have a big enough pool of undecideds to overcome Biden's lead in the polls purely out of the undecideds as he did back in 2016 with that huge 22% of undecided's..
 
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Michael Cole said:
So what are the odds an October vaccine will convert the older voters? What are the odds of an October vaccine? Will Trump try to sell more HCQ-style snake oil?

The irony of Trump's base turning on him because of covid is brilliant.

This Tweet expresses my opinion:
Old people relate to Biden, not Trump. Also, his policies (or lack thereof) are killing them.

I was thinking the same thing. Trump's criticisms of Biden's mental capacity may be backfiring on him, as Joe Biden simply acts old, not demented.
Click to expand...

It's not Trump's base that is deserting him, it's independents who viewed him as the lesser of two evils. They were never part of his base, they were just disgusted with both candidates in 2016, voting for the candidate they least wanted to lose, not win, but least wanted to lose. Big difference between base and voting for what they saw as the least worst candidate provided by the major parties.

In 2016 Trump won the independent vote 46-42 over Hillary with 12% voting third party against both Trump and Hillary. Today, independents are supporting Biden by an average of 43-35 with the rest stating they'll vote third party or undecided. That's going from a plus 4 advantage among independents in 2016 to a minus 8 as of today. A swing of 12 points away from Trump. Trump's base is still there, 91% of Republicans say they'll vote for Trump, in 2016 88% voted for him. So his base hasn't deserted him, it's those who viewed him as a lesser evil than Hillary who voted for him that has jumped off the Trump train. It's not that they liked or wanted Trump, they just didn't want Hillary more than they didn't want Trump to become president.

And as Monmouth pointed out, Biden is a lot less disliked than Hillary was.
 
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Michael Cole said:
I'm beyond impressed with the Democrats this cycle. I think they chose the perfect candidate, and he's being handled with great skill and precision. I always expect the Democrats to blunder somewhere along the way, but so far Biden is batting 1.000
Click to expand...
I was very nervous about this nominee, and now I am less so. He always had natural advantages because he already had established his 'image' ( harder for negative ads to create something on a pre-painted canvas. It certainly takes up a lot more money to do so) and it is far different from Hillary's because his includes a self effacing sense of humor ( no arrogance in Joe), he's harder to pin a scandal on, and he does 'empathy' well. He is stronger with unions and white men which helps in those purple states. Even prickly old Bernie likes Joe and that shows in his willingness to take on the 'Bernie or Bust' types

It is a very disciplined campaign. Evidently he has another advantage I had not thought about that you are pointing out. The guy listens to advice, AND HE TAKES IT. The Clintons always assumed they were the political geniuses of their time, and as for Donald....

So each day, Biden comes out to make a couple of videos for fundraising and makes an appearance where he takes his pot shots at Trump, looking Presidential, and talks about his subject of the day. He is actually staying on message, and reduces his risk of overexposure and offers the GOP a target an inch sized target , while he watches as Donald gives him a barn sized one, and flounders.

Not sure how long this will last, because more will be expected as we close in on convention time but we just might have a lot more to thank the good voters in the Carolinas for, than I realized.
 
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Perotista said:
This jives with RCP averages showing Biden up on Trump 49.3 to 40.5 as to the popular vote.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden

a 10 point advantage for Biden as he was ruled out by 40% to being ruled out by 50% for Trump. Then there's the independent vote which shows Trump at 35%, Biden at 43%, 9% saying third party with the rest undecided. In 2016 Trump won the independent vote 46-42 over Hillary with 12% voting against both by casting a ballot for a third party candidate. Trump's present 35% is 11 points lower than the percentage of the independent vote he received in 2016. Biden is but a single point higher than what Hillary received in 2016. Even so that's an overall swing of 12 points in the Democrat's favor.

What we don't know from Monmouth is the amount of voters who ruled out both candidates or disliked both candidates. In 2016 according to Gallup 25% of all Americans disliked both Trump and Clinton which included 54% of independents.

One in Four Americans Dislike Both Presidential Candidates

Another interesting aspect is there are but 10% of all voters who haven't decided on a candidate this year, back in 2016, the first week of July Hillary had a 41-37 advantage over Trump, which left a huge pool of 22% in the undecided column vs only 10% this year. Trump didn't have to convince a single Hillary supporter to jump her ship for the Trump train back in 2016. He could make up that 4% deficit out of that big pool of 22% who hadn't decided yet. This year, Trump will have to convince some Biden supporters to desert him in favor of himself. Usually not an easy task. He doesn't have a big enough pool of undecideds to overcome Biden's lead in the polls purely out of the undecideds as he did back in 2016 with that huge 22% of undecided's..
Click to expand...

Good analysis, but Monmouth did poll those who viewed both negatively. The results are very different from 2016.

Overall, 21% of all registered voters do not have a favorable opinion of either party’s nominee. Trump did well with this “double negative” group in 2016. The National Election Pool exit poll showed him ultimately winning their vote after Clinton held a small edge throughout the campaign. But he is getting swamped among these voters this time around. Biden leads by 55% to 21% among this group.

“Four years ago, Clinton was the insider candidate who approximated an incumbent in many voters’ minds. There is no mistaking who wears that mantle this year. Trump’s problem is that voters who aren’t enamored with either candidate tend to go for change,” said Murray.
 
Perotista said:
It's not Trump's base that is deserting him, it's independents who viewed him as the lesser of two evils. They were never part of his base, they were just disgusted with both candidates in 2016, voting for the candidate they least wanted to lose, not win, but least wanted to lose. Big difference between base and voting for what they saw as the least worst candidate provided by the major parties.

In 2016 Trump won the independent vote 46-42 over Hillary with 12% voting third party against both Trump and Hillary. Today, independents are supporting Biden by an average of 43-35 with the rest stating they'll vote third party or undecided. That's going from a plus 4 advantage among independents in 2016 to a minus 8 as of today. A swing of 12 points away from Trump. Trump's base is still there, 91% of Republicans say they'll vote for Trump, in 2016 88% voted for him. So his base hasn't deserted him, it's those who viewed him as a lesser evil than Hillary who voted for him that has jumped off the Trump train. It's not that they liked or wanted Trump, they just wanted Hillary much more than they didn't want Trump to become president.

And as Monmouth pointed out, Biden is a lot less disliked than Hillary was.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I shouldn't stereotype an age group, but it makes a good meme. :lol:
 
Michael Cole said:
Agreed. I shouldn't stereotype an age group, but it makes a good meme. :lol:
Click to expand...

We stereotype all sorts of groups and things. I don't think anyone is immune from doing so. What I wanted to point out is although someone voted for someone, that doesn't necessarily make them part of that someone's base. I was one who voted third party in 2016, against both Trump and Clinton. I really, really disliked both candidates. It wasn't because I liked Johnson or part of the Libertarian base, he just happened to be a third name on the ballot whose name wasn't Trump nor Clinton. Anyone, any third name would have done.

Now the Republicans and Democrats, both have their base and their base is pretty darn loyal to them regardless of who they choose to run as a candidate. 2016 you had 88% of Republicans voting for Trump 89% of Democrats voting for Clinton. In 2012 it was 93% of Republican voting for Romney, 92% of Democrats for Obama. 2008 it was 90% of Republicans voting for McCain and 89% of Democrats for Obama and so on back through history.

Obama had an 8 point win over McCain because he won independents 52-44 with 4% voting third party. Trump won in 2016 because he won independents 46-42 with 12% voting third party. Independents provided the margin of victory in Wisconsin 50-40, Pennsylvania 48-41 and Michigan 52-35 over Hillary. Democrats outnumber Republicans in all three states, so winning independents by a fairly large number was the only way Trump could win in those states. He won just enough.

The bottom line is that the Republican Party is still the smaller of the two major parties, Trump and company must win the independent vote or lose the election. All the Democrats have to do is keep the independent vote fairly close, they don't have to win it along with having a good turnout. In fact Obama lost the independent vote in 2012 51-48, but still beat Romney by 4 points. It helps having the larger of the two major parties.
 
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Perotista said:
We stereotype all sorts of groups and things. I don't think anyone is immune from doing so. What I wanted to point out is although someone voted for someone, that doesn't necessarily make them part of that someone's base. I was one who voted third party in 2016, against both Trump and Clinton. I really, really disliked both candidates. It wasn't because I liked Johnson or part of the Libertarian base, he just happened to be a third name on the ballot whose name wasn't Trump nor Clinton. Anyone, any third name would have done.

Now the Republicans and Democrats, both have their base and their base is pretty darn loyal to them regardless of who they choose to run as a candidate. 2016 you had 88% of Republicans voting for Trump 89% of Democrats voting for Clinton. In 2012 it was 93% of Republican voting for Romney, 92% of Democrats for Obama. 2008 it was 90% of Republicans voting for McCain and 89% of Democrats for Obama and so on back through history.

Obama had an 8 point win over McCain because he won independents 52-44 with 4% voting third party. Trump won in 2016 because he won independents 46-42 with 12% voting third party. Independents provided the margin of victory in Wisconsin 50-40, Pennsylvania 48-41 and Michigan 52-35 over Hillary. Democrats outnumber Republicans in all three states, so winning independents by a fairly large number was the only way Trump could win in those states. He won just enough.

The bottom line is that the Republican Party is still the smaller of the two major parties, Trump and company must win the independent vote or lose the election. All the Democrats have to do is keep the independent vote fairly close, they don't have to win it along with having a good turnout. In fact Obama lost the independent vote in 2012 51-48, but still beat Romney by 4 points. It helps having the larger of the two major parties.
Click to expand...

Trump has completely alienated the independent vote. It's almost like he believed his own rhetoric, and thought his base could carry him to victory. He is going to be humiliated in Nov.
 
Michael Cole said:
I'm beyond impressed with the Democrats this cycle. I think they chose the perfect candidate, and he's being handled with great skill and precision. I always expect the Democrats to blunder somewhere along the way, but so far Biden is batting 1.000
Click to expand...

The biggest weakness among Democrats is complacency. Biden is not the "perfect" candidate by far and he has a LOT and I mean a LOT of faults. So, what normally happens is Democrats or Independents that HATE Trump but don't like Biden "may" think that others will vote Trump out so they don't have to support or vote for Biden because someone else may do it.

The fact of the matter is that ALL Democratic voters and those that think Biden would be better than Trump NEED to vote and not expect someone else to do it.
 
Praxas said:
The biggest weakness among Democrats is complacency. Biden is not the "perfect" candidate by far and he has a LOT and I mean a LOT of faults. So, what normally happens is Democrats or Independents that HATE Trump but don't like Biden "may" think that others will vote Trump out so they don't have to support or vote for Biden because someone else may do it.

The fact of the matter is that ALL Democratic voters and those that think Biden would be better than Trump NEED to vote and not expect someone else to do it.
Click to expand...

Agree on complacency. Everyone needs to vote. It will be interesting to see the turnout among younger voters, who are the least reliable. I would think those who protested would also vote, and I believe there are campaigns promoting voter participation. IIRC, Stacey Abrams heads one such campaign.

Joe Biden may not be an ideal candidate in a generic comparison among contenders. It is my belief that among this years prospects, Joe Biden is the ideal candidate to defeat Trump. The Party and Democratic voters agree, and it's working very well. This is why I'm impressed with the Democrats. They're finally putting away petty ideological differences and trying to win an election.
 
Michael Cole said:
Agree on complacency. Everyone needs to vote. It will be interesting to see the turnout among younger voters, who are the least reliable. I would think those who protested would also vote, and I believe there are campaigns promoting voter participation. IIRC, Stacey Abrams heads one such campaign.

Joe Biden may not be an ideal candidate in a generic comparison among contenders. It is my belief that among this years prospects, Joe Biden is the ideal candidate to defeat Trump. The Party and Democratic voters agree, and it's working very well. This is why I'm impressed with the Democrats. They're finally putting away petty ideological differences and trying to win an election.
Click to expand...

I don't agree he's the BEST chance, but he's the ONLY chance right now for the Dems or any independents to dethrone Trump at this point. I don't like Biden and I don't like what he's done in the past. However, given that, I despise what Trump has done as President and I am willing to give Biden 4 years to try because I don't think he will do worse.
 
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