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Fox News Poll: Biden leads in Florida as Trump lags among seniors

Chomsky said:
Source: (Fox News) Fox News Poll: Biden leads in Florida as Trump lags among seniors

I quoted the majority of important data, and there's further break-out within the article.

I'm not sure what to say here. Accept for my last entry, the numbers seem atrocious for Trump - if they're accurate. Biden has multiple paths to win, including with losing Florida. Trump on the other hand, absolutely needs Florida to win. And with far better numbers in 2016, he carried Florida by only a single point.

My suspicion is the political pendulum will swing back somewhat from this current hard-core swing to Biden. But at the moment, it's looking pretty ugly for Trump.
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Yes, things will tighten again, but with Biden starting to crack 50% and 56% saying they intend to not vote for Trump, things look very good Biden, and has multiple back-ups to win, whereas Trump is bleeding all over the place, and can't lose more than two states to Biden.

Michigan and Pennsylvania are all but gone. One more state looks like that and Trump is toast, and Arizona and Wisconsin are starting to trend that way.
 
Chomsky said:
Source: (Fox News) Fox News Poll: Biden leads in Florida as Trump lags among seniors

I quoted the majority of important data, and there's further break-out within the article.

I'm not sure what to say here. Accept for my last entry, the numbers seem atrocious for Trump - if they're accurate. Biden has multiple paths to win, including with losing Florida. Trump on the other hand, absolutely needs Florida to win. And with far better numbers in 2016, he carried Florida by only a single point.

My suspicion is the political pendulum will swing back somewhat from this current hard-core swing to Biden. But at the moment, it's looking pretty ugly for Trump.
Click to expand...

My sense the race is Biden's to lose. He has to pass just two hurdles IMHO. First his choice of VP. He has boxed himself in to a tight corner on this one. Then the debates. To me that will be the key. He has a low bar here. That is to just sound like he gets it. Just has to show he can do the job for at least a while.
 
MovingPictures said:
Yes, things will tighten again, but with Biden starting to crack 50% and 56% saying they intend to not vote for Trump, things look very good Biden, and has multiple back-ups to win, whereas Trump is bleeding all over the place, and can't lose more than two states to Biden.
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Biden's breaking 50% was not lost on me, either.

Michigan and Pennsylvania are all but gone. One more state looks like that and Trump is toast, and Arizona and Wisconsin are starting to trend that way.
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Trump has no path without PA. If PA slips away, he is toast, even if he keeps FL.
 
Chomsky said:
And even worse for Trump, they're no longer dying far away in Blue State cities. They're dying in the heart of Trump country.
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True, they can't tell themselves that it's just a disease that liberals get. Kinda like when they finally figured out that straight people could get AIDES. Some people have to be bashed in the head with the obvious.
 
washunut said:
My sense the race is Biden's to lose. He has to pass just two hurdles IMHO. First his choice of VP. He has boxed himself in to a tight corner on this one. Then the debates. To me that will be the key. He has a low bar here. That is to just sound like he gets it. Just has to show he can do the job for at least a while.
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I fully agree. Great analysis!

But one thing that keeps me thinking, is the polling response of Trump voters. As demonized as Trump has become, particularity in terms of racism, that I believe it's possible some Trump voters may not want to personally admit to a person on the phone from a mainstream news organization, that they will vote for Trump. But that doesn't mean they won't cast a Trump vote.
 
George50 said:
Irrelevant. Your idea that you know more about polling than the people who do it for a living is just plain silly.
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Do you know more about running the White House than someone who does it for a living? More about running the state of Florida than someone who does it for a living? More about policing than someone who does it for a living?

You guys need to can this "Liberal scientists can't be touched" argument - there is corruption all throughout certain portions the Democratic Party, and no one is immune to it

Liberalism is all about questioning people in authority, no? Stop making exceptions for scientists, it's ridiculous, they're human just like everyone else
 
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ReubenSherr said:
At the moment, it's looking pretty ugly for the pollsters

Again, 44% of those polled were Democrats, whereas the Florida electorate was 37% Democratic in 2018

Polls with Democratic oversamples, even if they are weighted, are the harshest on Trump - it could be unintentional, it could be intentional, but this is now the 5th example of a "bad news for Trump" poll having Democratic oversamples in the past few weeks
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OTOH, If the Trump voters are going to not wear masks and congregate close together like Trump wants them to, COVID will take a lot of them out before election day and bring down the size of the Republican sample.
 
Chomsky said:
Why would you suspect correctly weighted polls to be inaccurate?
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Because pollsters are sampling a small group of Republicans, and then multiplying the results by a scale factor

The more important question is...Why are all of these pollsters coincidentally reaching a far greater percentage of Democrats than Republicans, compared to the makeup of the electorate?
 
PoliSciXtina said:
I live in a very red county in S.C. So far in my neighborhood, four ‘Biden for SC’ signs have gone up. No trump signs yet (I’m sure they are coming, though). I never saw one Hillary sign back in 2016. I know a few hardcore republicans who are fed up with trump and a few more who admitted to me that he botched this entire covid response. Now, will they vote Biden? I hope. People are souring on him for sure.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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I am here too...the only place that I have seen any Trump signs is in methville....and even there only 1 or 2....and one of those was by a huge confederate flag.
 
ReubenSherr said:
Do you know more about running the White House than someone who does it for a living? More about running the state of Florida than someone who does it for a living? More about policing than someone who does it for a living?

You guys need to can this "Liberal scientists can't be touched" argument
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Answer to the first question is absolutely, no doubt about it.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
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I'd say ByeDon winning Mississippi and Indiana is a bit of a pipe-dream, but him taking Texas and Georgia certainly is not.

OK, maybe we'll concede SC and WVa too. But, that's about it. So, at the very least its going to be close to a "400 to 135" win.
 
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ClaraD said:
I am here too...the only place that I have seen any Trump signs is in methville....and even there only 1 or 2....and one of those was by a huge confederate flag.
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The imagery is like out of a movie script, but I'm sure it's real.
 
Chomsky said:
I fully agree. Great analysis!

But one thing that keeps me thinking, is the polling response of Trump voters. As demonized as Trump has become, particularity in terms of racism, that I believe it's possible some Trump voters may not want to personally admit to a person on the phone from a mainstream news organization, that they will vote for Trump. But that doesn't mean they won't cast a Trump vote.
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So you think the dirty little secret Trump vote might still be a thing. It definitely was last time. I can only say that with the movement away from Trump that I'm seeing among the demographics that he won before, I think the dirty little secret vote should be smaller as well.
 
ReubenSherr said:
Because pollsters are sampling a small group of Republicans, and then multiplying the results by a scale factor

The more important question is...Why are all of these pollsters coincidentally reaching a far greater percentage of Democrats than Republicans, compared to the makeup of the electorate?
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Maybe because Republicans don't like pollsters and won't take the poll.
 
ReubenSherr said:
Because pollsters are sampling a small group of Republicans, and then multiplying the results by a scale factor

The more important question is...Why are all of these pollsters coincidentally reaching a far greater percentage of Democrats than Republicans, compared to the makeup of the electorate?
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The point is the same pollsters were within a point-and-a-half in 2016, and just as good in 2018. So what makes you think this election is different than the earlier two?
 
George50 said:
Answer to the first question is absolutely, no doubt about it.
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If you can question Trump and his political motivations on a message board, I can question pollsters and their political motivations on a message board ;)

If you know a poster who has expertise on polling, please ask them to explain why every one of these "Biden is ahead by a landslide" polls has a much higher percentage of Democrats sampled than Republicans, compared to the electorate
 
bearpoker said:
Maybe because Republicans don't like pollsters and won't take the poll.
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That is indeed possible, and could be problematic. I believe part of the 1-1/2 pt polling difference in 2016 was due to this effect.

(the other part was polling lag during the quick movement after the Comey announcement)
 
calamity said:
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I'd say ByeDon winning Mississippi and Indiana is a bit of a pipe-dream, but him taking Texas and Georgia certainly is not.

OK, maybe we'll concede SC and WVa too. But, that's about it. So, at the very least its going to be close to a "400 to 135" win.
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That there is what I call wildly optimistic. But it would be so cool!:mrgreen:
 
Chomsky said:
The point is the same pollsters were within a point-and-a-half in 2016, and just as good in 2018. So what makes you think this election is different than the earlier two?
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The circumstances surrounding the election, and the desperation of the Democratic Party to dethrone Trump at all costs
 
bearpoker said:
Maybe because Republicans don't like pollsters and won't take the poll.
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I believe this (it was one of the reasons I gave)

But why not continue calling people until you have an accurate percentage of the Republican electorate?
 
ReubenSherr said:
The circumstances surrounding the election, and the desperation of the Democratic Party to dethrone Trump at all costs
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Good luck with that. Come 4 NOV don't say we didn't tell you.
 
ReubenSherr said:
I believe this (it was one of the reasons I gave)
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This actually might be fair. I agree with you here, though I don't know how much error this might account for.
 
It's increasingly taking shape as Trump's somewhat eroded base vs the American electorate.

It's too soon yet for the various experts to say what their take is on the raw numbers but we'll start seeing those in mid October along with any surprises.

So I wouldn't be surprised to see a final tally consensus be projected of Biden at 73m votes v Trump at 55m votes that would put Trump in Barry Goldwater gets blownout territory 1964. That would put us reintroduced to the Great Society and the immigration laws that are putting rightwingers into the minority of the general population. Sort of a close the circle election that puts the Right on the outside looking in again, this time for good.

One can hope.
 
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