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Trump campaign demands CNN apologize for poll that shows Biden leading

upsideguy

upsideguy

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"......President Donald Trump's campaign is demanding CNN retract and apologize for a recent poll that showed him well behind presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. The demand, coming in the form of a cease and desist letter to CNN President Jeff Zucker that contained numerous incorrect and misleading claims, was immediately rejected by the network.

"We stand by our poll," said Matt Dornic, a CNN spokesman....

The CNN poll conducted by SSRS and released on Monday shows Trump trailing the former vice president by 14 points, 55%-41%, among registered voters. It also finds the President's approval rating at 38% -- his worst mark since January 2019, and roughly on par with approval ratings for one-term Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush at this point in their reelection years -- and his disapproval rating at 57%.


In the letter to Zucker, the Trump campaign argued that the CNN poll is "designed to mislead American voters through a biased questionnaire and skewed sampling....."

Trump campaign demands CNN apologize for poll that shows Biden leading - CNNPolitics
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This is a new level of presidential nuts. He doesn't like what the polls are saying so he issues a cease and desist letter? Really?

Mr. President,

I get that you don't like what the poll is telling you, but the poll exists. There are plenty of polls out there, with varying results. That is they way they work. They are not precise, but they are information based upon a scientific study of preferences. We all sorry that they are consistently are telling you that you are losing, but that seems to be the case.

I suggest you don't shoot the messenger, but do what most intelligent people do in the circumstance: be introspective and determine why you are losing. Take the time available to you to build your case for four more years. If you can't make a compelling case, then be prepared to honor the will of the people, because that is what real president do.

Concerned Citizen
 
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upsideguy said:
This is a new level of presidential nuts. He doesn't like what the polls are saying so he issues a cease and desist letter? Really?

Mr. President, I get that you don't like what the poll is telling you, but the poll exists. There are plenty of polls out there, with different results, but we all sorry that they consistently are telling you that you are losing. I suggest you don't shoot the messenger, but do what most intelligent people do and examine why you are losing and take the time available to build your case for four more years. If you can't make a compelling case, then be prepared to honor the will of the people, because that is what real president do.
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Wasn't this the CNN-affiliated poll that oversampled black voters, and then artificially "weighted" the results?

"The survey also includes an oversample of black respondents for a total subsample of 362 black, non-Hispanic adults. That subset was weighted to its proper share of the overall adult population of the United States"

I notice the Original Poster didn't mention any of this :roll:

CNN Poll: Trump losing ground to Biden amid chaotic week - CNNPolitics
 
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"Trump trailing the former vice president by 14 points, 55%-41%,"



If these numbers are true, republicans will rue the day they met Trump.
 
And CNN's response...

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ReubenSherr said:
Wasn't this the CNN-affiliated poll that oversampled black voters, and then artificially "weighted" the results?
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All polls artificially weight their results. Good ones do it to static characteristics like age, race, sex, education, etc. Worse ones also weight for dynamic characteristics like party affiliation. In this case, it makes sense to oversample a population of you want to have statistically significant crosstabs for that population as long as they re-weight the results appropriately.

In this case they seemed to have oversampled black voters so that the cross-tabs for black voters would be statistically significant rather than having double digit margins of error. But they re-weighted so that the black responses only count for their share of the population.
 
ReubenSherr said:
Wasn't this the CNN-affiliated poll that oversampled black voters, and then artificially "weighted" the results?

"The survey also includes an oversample of black respondents for a total subsample of 362 black, non-Hispanic adults. That subset was weighted to its proper share of the overall adult population of the United States"

I notice the Original Poster didn't mention any of this :roll:

CNN Poll: Trump losing ground to Biden amid chaotic week - CNNPolitics
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You can learn something new today.

Oversampling is used to study small groups, not bias poll results | Pew Research Center

Anagram said:
All polls artificially weight their results. Good ones do it to static characteristics like age, race, sex, education, etc. Worse ones also weight for dynamic characteristics like party affiliation. In this case, it makes sense to oversample a population of you want to have statistically significant crosstabs for that population as long as they re-weight the results appropriately.

In this case they seemed to have oversampled black voters so that the cross-tabs for black voters would be statistically significant rather than having double digit margins of error. But they re-weighted so that the black responses only count for their share of the population.
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Um...yeah. What he said.
 
Anagram said:
All polls artificially weight their results. Good ones do it to static characteristics like age, race, sex, education, etc. Worse ones also weight for dynamic characteristics like party affiliation. In this case, it makes sense to oversample a population of you want to have statistically significant crosstabs for that population as long as they re-weight the results appropriately.

In this case they seemed to have oversampled black voters so that the cross-tabs for black voters would be statistically significant rather than having double digit margins of error. But they re-weighted so that the black responses only count for their share of the population.
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This is absolute BS

In order to conduct accurate polls, all pollsters need to do is watch their proportions - If they seem to have an oversample of black voters, and a black voter answers the phone, simply tell the person thank you, but they need to call someone else to be accurate in their polling

"Weighting" assumes that all white and black voters will break proportionately in the same way
 
ReubenSherr said:
It doesn't matter what the intention is - it makes the results inaccurate, and CNN is well aware of this
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You're in over your head, dude.
 
ReubenSherr said:
This is absolute BS

In order to conduct accurate polls, all pollsters need to do is watch their proportions - If they seem to have an oversample of black voters, and a black voter answers the phone, simply tell the person thank you, but they need to call someone else to be accurate in their polling

"Weighting" assumes that all white and black voters will break proportionately in the same way
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Yeah. That's not how polling works. All polls apply weight to certain characteristics in order to reflect the general population.
 
ReubenSherr said:
It doesn't matter what the intention is - it makes the results inaccurate, and CNN is well aware of this

These are pollsters that made a mockery of polling in 2016 - They have no leg to stand on
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The polls were mostly accurate in 2016, despite the narratives that have been taken on since then. And the reason the narrative that polling was terrible is so strong is probably because there legitimately was a narrative in the media in 2016 that Hillary was going to easily win, despite the fact that wasn't really borne out in the polling. Especially the polling as we got closer to the election.
 
Anagram said:
Yeah. That's not how polling works. All polls apply weight to certain characteristics in order to reflect the general population.
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If pollsters did their job in the first place, and watched their proportions, this wouldn't have to be done, and the polls would accurately reflect the general population on their own

Funny how the oversampled groups always lean Democratic BTW
 
TheDoctorWasIn said:
No, it doesn't. It actually makes the results more accurate.

I have a few books on stratified sampling, if you'd like any recommendations.
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Lol try to follow me here...

If pollsters watched their proportions as they polled, they wouldn't have to weight, and the results would be accurate on their own

Again, notice that the oversamples groups nearly always lean Democratic

And lol I'm not interested in books on polling - they botched the job in 2016, they have very little credibility
 
ReubenSherr said:
If pollsters did their job in the first place, and watched their proportions, this wouldn't have to be done, and the polls would accurately reflect the general population on their own

Funny how the oversampled groups always lean Democratic BTW
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Well hey, maybe Trump can beg every other pollster showing him trailing Biden (which is all of them) to take down their polls too.

On the plus side, OAN is going to come out with a fake poll today that you can wave around, which will probably show Trump leading by 108 points.
 
Cardinal said:
Well hey, maybe Trump can beg every other pollster showing him trailing Biden (which is all of them) to take down their polls too.

On the plus side, OAN is going to come out with a fake poll today that you can wave around, which will probably show Trump leading by 108 points.
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Simply look at the demographics of the poll - If the pollsters sampled political parties and demographics proportionally, there will be little problem with the poll

But poll after poll has been released this year, and oversampling of Democrats and ethnic groups considered to lean Democrat is extremely consistent ;)
 
ReubenSherr said:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton
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Look at October 27, and then see what happens on October 28. Finally, look at the last day.

What do you see?

ReubenSherr said:
Simply look at the demographics of the poll - If the pollsters sampled political parties and demographics proportionally, there will be little problem with the poll

But poll after poll has been released this year, and oversampling of Democrats and ethnic groups considered to lean Democrat is extremely consistent ;)
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Stop talking about polling methodology. You're not qualified for this.
 
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