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Thread: Trump approval rating at all-time high

  1. #1151
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    Re: Trump approval rating at all-time high

    Quote Originally Posted by TU Curmudgeon View Post
    I guess that the term "worse case scenario" is new to your vocabulary. What it means is (essentially) "IF nothing that we try works and this thing turns out to be the absolute worst thing that we can think of, THEN ...".

    The term "worse case scenario" does NOT mean "With 100% confidence, this IS what is going to happen.".

    I guess that whomever told you that that the NY Times article said what you say it did had to stop and rest their tired lips before they got to the "But those numbers don’t account for interventions now underway." bit. If you had actually read the article (which I highly doubt) you would have seen that the "low end" figures were anywhere from 25% to 10% of the "high end" figures AND that the authors of the study had admitted that their calculations were already on the high side because of the actions that the several states were already taking.

    If you want to take a look at what the "low end" figures were, they would be (roughly) 28,000,000 to 37,450,000 cases and (roughly) 35,000 to 297,500 deaths. Since the current death toll already exceeds 35,000 it is a bit of a stretch for a reasonably intelligent person to accept the validity of someone's total dismissal of a study that they haven't even read when the dismissal is based solely on partial information interpreted in a deliberately biased manner.
    In that case the 'worst case scenario' is that everyone dies. You needn't be an 'expert' to make these foolish claims.

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    Re: Trump approval rating at all-time high

    Quote Originally Posted by Fred C Dobbs II View Post
    In that case the 'worst case scenario' is that everyone dies. You needn't be an 'expert' to make these foolish claims.
    In an absolute sense you are correct. Of course that would also mean that in the "best case scenario" God would intervene and reverse all the deaths.

    Your comment clearly illustrates that the term "worst case scenario" IS new to your vocabulary since no rational planner considers things that have a 0.0000000000000001% chance of happening when making their plans/projections.

    To illustrate on a plain that I suspect that you have at least a 2% chance of understanding, during WWII the Germans did not project that the United Nations would attempt to invade Nazi held Europe and liberate it by simply driving across the English Channel which had suddenly become water free. That "possibility" is completely consistent with your demonstrated knowledge of what the term "worst case scenario" actually means.

    As you are aware, the incidence and mortality rates for COVID-19 CONTINUE TO INCREASE in the United States of America (I know that you have absolutely no interest in what they are doing in any other place). Admittedly the "Rate of Increase" is showing every sign of slowing down but that is NOT the same thing as believing that the "Rate of Increase" is falling - what it just means is that it is getting higher at a slower rate than it was doing previously.

    Unlike you, I do NOT look forward to seeing the results if everyone in the US takes Mr. Trump's advice and immediately resumes the same life style as they pursued before COVID-19 struck (and that is because I do not view the world through a #c21e56 filter).
    Summary of 20/06/06 COVID-19 (Deaths/Cases) Mortality Statistics
    World (398,698/6,875,464) 5.80% / USA (111,398/1,966,260) 5.67% / Canada (7,703/94,335) 8.17%
    Running update of the COVID-19 data at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19

  3. #1153
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    Re: Trump approval rating at all-time high

    Quote Originally Posted by TU Curmudgeon View Post
    To illustrate on a plain that I suspect that you have at least a 2% chance of understanding,
    You, my friend, are too optimistic...

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    Re: Trump approval rating at all-time high

    Quote Originally Posted by NWRatCon View Post
    You, my friend, are too optimistic...
    A study done as a part of the Student Christian Movement's annual convention (back in the late 1960s) showed that you could get about 5% of any random group to believe almost anything - no matter how absurd it was.
    Summary of 20/06/06 COVID-19 (Deaths/Cases) Mortality Statistics
    World (398,698/6,875,464) 5.80% / USA (111,398/1,966,260) 5.67% / Canada (7,703/94,335) 8.17%
    Running update of the COVID-19 data at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19

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    Re: Trump approval rating at all-time high

    Quote Originally Posted by Fred C Dobbs II View Post
    and they'll do it again in November, joined by the Independents and the growing number of Blue Dogs.. Know it all? He hasn't made clear yet what he does know.

    In fact the "experts" whose word you appear to take predicted:

    "Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die". However, under Donald Trump's leadership, there were far fewer victims. Let's give him credit for doing so much better than the "experts" forewarned.


    Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths - The New York Times
    Whose advice are you referring to?
    South Korea reported their first case within a day of the US. They actually have things under control now with few new cases and deaths. They have 234 deaths to date. They did far less damage to their economy than we are doing. Now I know we are bigger, actually by a factor of about 6. So if we did as good a job we wouldnít be looking at 234 deaths, but adjusted for population we should be looking at less than 2,000 deaths when we finally get things under control. We are over 40,000 now and Trump says weíll be doing very well if we can keep it to 60,000 deaths!!!!!! The additional deaths over 2,000 are directly due to Trumpís continual failure to listen to scientists and experts of all types. How many times have we heard him say ďI know more than theĒ .... you fill in the blank.

    South Korea was successful because they were aggressive early. They immediately mobilized their industries and started to make tests, started to do contact tracing and isolate the infected. This strategy ONLY works if you start immediately when you have few cases. Once you allow the virus to get out of control like Trump did it is too late to employ these measures. We waited too long and that is why we have had shortages of tests, ventilators, PPE, etc. Thatís why we had to lockdown to he extent we did. The longer you wait to respond effectively the more resources you need to fight the virus. Our scientists and health professionals are every bit as capable as any other country but they were held back by a President who has been dragging his feet and slapping them down at every opportunity instead of leading when we really needed leadership. Trumpís early strategy was hoping for a miracle that would turn 15 cases into 0 instead of the 700,000 plus and climbing that we have now.

    There is no reason why we couldnít have done what South Korea did other than Trump dragging his feet and ignoring the experts instead of leading. Now Trump and Fox ďNewsĒ are trying to place the blame for Trumpís failure on the WHO and China. The WHO and China didnít stop South Korea from doing what needed to be done and they didnít stop the US either. Heís also trying to shift responsibility and thus the blame to the states. The states donít have the power to mobilize American industries that the Federal Government has through the Defense Production Act. They also donít have the leverage to deal with other countries when a supply chain requires it that the Federal Government does. Itís just more deflection, whining and lame excuses.


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    Re: Trump approval rating at all-time high

    This is why I am fed up with Covidiots, including the occupant of the Whitewash House. Trump had the experts, the warnings, the system, and the tools to avoid this crisis, and he made the wrong choice at every opportunity. And insists on continuing to do so, even attacking those who have done it well, all to cover his failures. Most of us know what would have been more effective (tests, contact tracing, traveler isolation) and avoided the break-glass solutions (massive and universal shutdowns). To most of us the real answers present themselves, logically. But to these Covidiots Trump is great, can do no wrong, and everyone else is crybabies, rather than the Crybaby in Chief. I'm sick of it.

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    Re: Trump approval rating at all-time high

    Quote Originally Posted by George50 View Post
    South Korea reported their first case within a day of the US. They actually have things under control now with few new cases and deaths. They have 234 deaths to date. They did far less damage to their economy than we are doing. Now I know we are bigger, actually by a factor of about 6. So if we did as good a job we wouldn’t be looking at 234 deaths, but adjusted for population we should be looking at less than 2,000 deaths when we finally get things under control. We are over 40,000 now and Trump says we’ll be doing very well if we can keep it to 60,000 deaths!!!!!! The additional deaths over 2,000 are directly due to Trump’s continual failure to listen to scientists and experts of all types. How many times have we heard him say “I know more than the” .... you fill in the blank.

    South Korea was successful because they were aggressive early. They immediately mobilized their industries and started to make tests, started to do contact tracing and isolate the infected. This strategy ONLY works if you start immediately when you have few cases. Once you allow the virus to get out of control like Trump did it is too late to employ these measures. We waited too long and that is why we have had shortages of tests, ventilators, PPE, etc. That’s why we had to lockdown to he extent we did. The longer you wait to respond effectively the more resources you need to fight the virus. Our scientists and health professionals are every bit as capable as any other country but they were held back by a President who has been dragging his feet and slapping them down at every opportunity instead of leading when we really needed leadership. Trump’s early strategy was hoping for a miracle that would turn 15 cases into 0 instead of the 700,000 plus and climbing that we have now.

    There is no reason why we couldn’t have done what South Korea did other than Trump dragging his feet and ignoring the experts instead of leading. Now Trump and Fox “News” are trying to place the blame for Trump’s failure on the WHO and China. The WHO and China didn’t stop South Korea from doing what needed to be done and they didn’t stop the US either. He’s also trying to shift responsibility and thus the blame to the states. The states don’t have the power to mobilize American industries that the Federal Government has through the Defense Production Act. They also don’t have the leverage to deal with other countries when a supply chain requires it that the Federal Government does. It’s just more deflection, whining and lame excuses.

    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
    QUICK SUMMARY OF Comparative COVID-19 (Deaths/Cases) Mortality Rates

    20/04/19 – World (161,275/2,345,338) 6.88% / USA (39,015/738,923) 5.30% / Canada (1,470/33,383) 4.40%
    20/04/20 – World (166,271/2,430,733) 6.84% / USA (40,743/767,189) 5.31% / Canada (1,587/35,056) 4.53%
    Summary of 20/06/06 COVID-19 (Deaths/Cases) Mortality Statistics
    World (398,698/6,875,464) 5.80% / USA (111,398/1,966,260) 5.67% / Canada (7,703/94,335) 8.17%
    Running update of the COVID-19 data at Daily Statistical Summary of COVID-19

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