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Dow plunges 1,000 points, gives up gain for the year

GreatNews2night said:
The market will continue to be troubled if the pandemic gets worse and worse, including, if the virus doesn't confer immunity to itself and becomes endemic. If the worst case-scenario is confirmed, that is, a case-fatality rate of 2.5% and the virus infecting 40 to 70% of the US population within the year (not to forget, if there is re-infection, the problem will continue on an on until vaccines are effective and distributed widely which is likely to be 12 to 18 months away), we are looking into 3,300,000 to 5,750,000 deaths in the United States. You may want to consider the market impact from this kind of death toll. Hopefully the worst case-scenario won't materialize, if the case-fatality rate is being grossly over-estimated by the lack of diagnosis of mild cases. We'll see.

My professional training is personal information that I'm not willing to share in a public forum. I just thought that for someone to say "frankly *I* give it six months" would require a professional degree if this statement is to be taken serious, because a lay person's *opinion* is worth strictly NOTHING in terms of assessing the public health risks of a novel infectious disease.

If you only meant the stock market, then, fine. But then, consider my answer to be less applied to you, and more applied to others here, who apparently have no Virology expertise whatsoever but keep calling others "chicken little" in need of "Depends."
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So you are not a doctor.


Your opinion is dismissed
 
Ahlevah said:
You don't need a medical degree to see that the financial markets are in panic mode again.
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My objection was to the *opinion* (with no expert knowledge of virology and of infectious disease) that this will go away in six months. Yes, for that *opinion* to be taken seriously, you do need to base it on sound knowledge of the characteristics of the COVID-19 and it's disruptive potential.
 
GreatNews2night said:
My objection was to the *opinion* (with no expert knowledge of virology and of infectious disease) that this will go away in six months. Yes, for that *opinion* to be taken seriously, you do need to base it on sound knowledge of the characteristics of the COVID-19 and it's disruptive potential.
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Which you do not have
 
Lord of Planar said:
The left will be dancing in the streets, and pin it all on our president.
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Trump isn't smart enough to cook up a virus. At best he's just an STD carrier.

The problem with Trump is that he's such a f***ing moron he cut the Pandemic Response Team and gutted the budgets of the CDC and NIH. He should be man enough to accept responsibility for his actions. Do you think he will?
 
Dutch Uncle said:
Trump isn't smart enough to cook up a virus. At best he's just an STD carrier.

The problem with Trump is that he's such a f***ing moron he cut the Pandemic Response Team and gutted the budgets of the CDC and NIH. He should be man enough to accept responsibility for his actions. Do you think he will?
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Can you produce anything material that overpaid team of lazy people siphoning government funds did?
 
joko104 said:
Wait a minute. Weren't all my early messages warning about the coronavirus just false fear mongering trying to create panic?
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Kinda flies in the face of 75,000 cases and over a thousand deaths doesn't it?
 
Chomsky said:
Actually, you've got that diametrically wrong. Trump is blaming the Dems.
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That figures since Trump is a world-wide known chronic liar and coward who never accepts responsibility for his mistakes.
 
uptower said:
Kinda flies in the face of 75,000 cases and over a thousand deaths doesn't it?
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A 2% death rate would be over 6 million deaths in the US if it spread to everyone...which is the medical folks are concerned. Trump pooh-pooing it with claims of "don't worry about it, the heat of Spring will kill it" ,or words to that effect, are not giving intelligent people much confidence in his abilities to lead us through this crisis.
 
Ikari said:
Is that a real tweet? It's hard to tell these days.


Well I guess we have to prep the cannon.
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I don't think it is real, did a quick search and snopes couldn't verify it. Couldn't disprove it either, but how could they? With 28,000 retweets it should be easily verified if it were true. Also the date stamp is unlikely since the stock market didn't crash near that date.
 
Kreton said:
I don't think it is real, did a quick search and snopes couldn't verify it. Couldn't disprove it either, but how could they? With 28,000 retweets it should be easily verified if it were true. Also the date stamp is unlikely since the stock market didn't crash near that date.
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Didn't dig into the site to see if it's a legit rejection or not, but Fake President Donald Trump Tweet Goes Out of Control

But it is sad that it's hard to differentiate a real vs fake Tweet because he's known for saying some absurd stuff.
 
Lord of Planar said:
The left will be dancing in the streets, and pin it all on our president.
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Well, that's the way the cookie crumbles. Compared to other countries, Americans seem so obsessed with the stock market that it's used as a major political metric. Administrations always get the praise or blame when it's up or down. Trump himself has bragged incessantly about its continued rise during his tenure. So the flip side is he gets some of the blame, deserved or not, when it falls.

It's a measure of the stranglehold the wealthy few have on the economy and politics that everyone has to watch those little line graphs ticking away for their own stability and security, even the half of Americans who don't have a dog in the fight.

EOUhYm6XkAAQ5C0.jpg
 
Lord of Planar said:
Can you produce anything material that overpaid team of lazy people siphoning government funds did?
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LOL. No doubt your doctorate in medicine tells you everything you need to know on why our nation doesn't need a Pandemic Response Team. That said, I'm guessing a lot of Trumpeteers will be crapping their Depends when the virus hits their neighborhood.
 
Dutch Uncle said:
A 2% death rate would be over 6 million deaths in the US if it spread to everyone...which is the medical folks are concerned. Trump pooh-pooing it with claims of "don't worry about it, the heat of Spring will kill it" ,or words to that effect, are not giving intelligent people much confidence in his abilities to lead us through this crisis.
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After gutting the CDC and surrounding himself with yes-men, hacks, lobbyists and Luddites (looking at you, Mike Pence) his administration is even less equipped to handle a genuine crisis than the ones he consistently manufactures to dominate the headlines.

I too believe it will blow over (I lived in Hong Kong all through SARS), but not before it claims a few avoidable deaths because the country's services are less prepared than they would have been under a more competent administration.
 
How far down is the Market in total? I don't know why we place such implicit trust in it when it's given to large changes based on hysterics?
 
GreatNews2night said:
My objection was to the *opinion* (with no expert knowledge of virology and of infectious disease) that this will go away in six months. Yes, for that *opinion* to be taken seriously, you do need to base it on sound knowledge of the characteristics of the COVID-19 and it's disruptive potential.
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He didn't say this disease would go away in six months. He was replying to my statement that I thought its impact on the financial markets would be relatively short-lived. The value of a company is based on the value of its discounted future cash flow. If a company wasn't expected to ever earn a dime, it would be worthless. But this comment by Oakmark's portfolio manager Win Murray says a lot about the current state of affairs:

If 2020 cash flows for the entire market dropped all the way to zero, the aggregate value of the market should only fall by 4%-5%. Therefore, we believe the proper question to ask when analyzing the coronavirus (or any emerging macro risk) is “How much will this affect the long-term cash flows of businesses?” I doubt very much that the owner of a thriving family business would accept a dramatically reduced offer for her entire company today versus two months ago simply because of virus fears.

Potential Impact of Coronavirus on Long-Term Holdings | Oakmark Funds
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The market dropped over 4% just today. So even if cash flows for the market went to zero for the rest of the year, that should be the extent of the selloff, at least to the degree this disease is driving the selling. That is unless you think this coronavirus is going to put the planet out of business beyond this year.
 
Linc said:
The stock market is the ONLY economic indicator for trump. His decisions are designed to illegally help his Mar-a-Lago buds.

Imagine how Ebola trump would be Carnival Barking today if we currently had a DEM President facing COVID-19.
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Here's some other indicators from the Trump economy. "Average hourly earnings rose 3.4 percent in February, the best increase since April 2009.
For the first time during the recovery, lower-end earners are getting more of the benefit, according to a Goldman Sachs report.
The trend could mean that the economy has more strength to it than some economists think."https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/13/workers-at-lower-end-of-pay-scale-getting-most-benefit-from-rising-wages.html
Do you have a link for the statement I bolded?
 
uptower said:
After gutting the CDC and surrounding himself with yes-men, hacks, lobbyists and Luddites (looking at you, Mike Pence) his administration is even less equipped to handle a genuine crisis than the ones he consistently manufactures to dominate the headlines.

I too believe it will blow over (I lived in Hong Kong all through SARS), but not before it claims a few avoidable deaths because the country's services are less prepared than they would have been under a more competent administration.
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Agreed. It's not the Black Death. A 98% survival rate is better odds than Las Vegas, but millions of needless deaths the could have been avoided by competent leadership will certainly be remembered by the survivors of those who are lost.
 
Ahlevah said:
He didn't say this disease would go away in six months. He was replying to my statement that I thought its impact on the financial markets would be relatively short-lived. The value of a company is based on the value of its discounted future cash flow. If a company wasn't expected to ever earn a dime, it would be worthless. But this comment by Oakmark's portfolio manager Win Murray says a lot about the current state of affairs:



The market dropped over 4% just today. So even if cash flows for the market went to zero for the rest of the year, that should be the extent of the selloff, at least to the degree this disease is driving the selling. That is unless you think this coronavirus is going to put the planet out of business beyond this year.
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Six months tops. Get ready for a rate cut
 
Ahlevah said:
He didn't say this disease would go away in six months. He was replying to my statement that I thought its impact on the financial markets would be relatively short-lived. The value of a company is based on the value of its discounted future cash flow. If a company wasn't expected to ever earn a dime, it would be worthless. But this comment by Oakmark's portfolio manager Win Murray says a lot about the current state of affairs:



The market dropped over 4% just today. So even if cash flows for the market went to zero for the rest of the year, that should be the extent of the selloff, at least to the degree this disease is driving the selling. That is unless you think this coronavirus is going to put the planet out of business beyond this year.
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You seem to have missed the part where I said that if the poster meant the stock market only and not the disease, then I was partially taking it back.
 
Dutch Uncle said:
Agreed. It's not the Black Death. A 98% survival rate is better odds than Las Vegas, but millions of needless deaths the could have been avoided by competent leadership will certainly be remembered by the survivors of those who are lost.
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I doubt deaths in the US will even run into the thousands, but like the markets, the current administration gets to shoulder the blame for whatever does go wrong. The inept and apathetic response of this president does not help matters and no doubt will be remembered.
 
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