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America's economy grew at its weakest pace since Trump took office

MTAtech

MTAtech

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America's economy grew at its weakest pace since Trump took office


New York (CNN Business)The US economy in 2019 grew at its slowest pace in three years, according to preliminary data from the Commerce Department.

The economy expanded by 2.3% last year, its lowest level since 2016, when growth stood at 1.6%.
The economy under President Donald Trump has been consistently strong but not electric. In its best year, 2018, the economy expanded at a 2.9% clip. In 2017, it grew by 2.4%.
The dropoff in 2019 was because personal consumption and exports fell, according to the Commerce Department.
Critics of Obama said his economy was mediocre because he never had GDP growth at 3% or higher. Neither has Trump, with low unemployment and a trillion dollar deficit that's basically fiscal stimulus.
Trump promised on the campaign trail that he'd bring in 4, 5, and maybe 6% growth. Didn't happen. His tax-cuts were supposed to be the economic miracle to boost growth. It didn't happen. His tariffs were supposed to help exports. Exports fell.
 
MTAtech said:
America's economy grew at its weakest pace since Trump took office


New York (CNN Business)The US economy in 2019 grew at its slowest pace in three years, according to preliminary data from the Commerce Department.

The economy expanded by 2.3% last year, its lowest level since 2016, when growth stood at 1.6%.
The economy under President Donald Trump has been consistently strong but not electric. In its best year, 2018, the economy expanded at a 2.9% clip. In 2017, it grew by 2.4%.
The dropoff in 2019 was because personal consumption and exports fell, according to the Commerce Department.
Critics of Obama said his economy was mediocre because he never had GDP growth at 3% or higher. Neither has Trump, with low unemployment and a trillion dollar deficit that's basically fiscal stimulus.
Trump promised on the campaign trail that he'd bring in 4, 5, and maybe 6% growth. Didn't happen. His tax-cuts were supposed to be the economic miracle to boost growth. It didn't happen. His tariffs were supposed to help exports. Exports fell.
Click to expand...

Not a good sign. But we'll have to wait and see whether it was just a weak quarter or a start of a downward trend.

You are on point about the tariffs and the tax cuts for the ultra-rich. So much winning. :doh
 
Despite the protestations of Trump supporters I see very little to distinguish this economy from Obama's, except that we have now finally made it to full employment after many years. But in defense of Trump and Obama's economy, I personally have no problem with low inflation and steady 2% growth.

What really has me amazed is that we are in a manufacturing recession, yet still staying afloat on consumer spending! Which speaks to how little manufacturing is part of our current economy - around 10%.
 
Phys251 said:
Not a good sign. But we'll have to wait and see whether it was just a weak quarter or a start of a downward trend.

You are on point about the tariffs and the tax cuts for the ultra-rich. So much winning. :doh
Click to expand...
I've been waiting for the manufacturing recession to trickle through the economy, as it has done in the past. In fact, late last summer I was positing that the manufacturing slump may be finally bringing a retraction from this record long growth period we are in. But I was wrong, as earnings came in and the general economy soon ticked-up.

But now, I see this:

The dropoff in 2019 was because personal consumption and exports fell, according to the Commerce Department.
Click to expand...

Which along with a manufacturing contraction, would again seem to predict a general slowdown. But I'm not sure what to make of it, having been burned once already. Unlike business & capital spending, consumer spending can be fickle with psychological components. Which is why I think it was easier to predict the economy when it was more manufacturing based, rather than what we have now.
 
Chomsky said:
What really has me amazed is that we are in a manufacturing recession, yet still staying afloat on consumer spending! Which speaks to how little manufacturing is part of our current economy - around 10%.
Click to expand...

It makes me wonder if there will be a large bump in manufacturing (and/or other large parts of the economy) if/when the trade war wraps up?

Hard to find much to complain about with the U.S. economy, considering the situations much of the rest of the developed world is facing.
 
2010 $14.992 $15.599 2.6% ACA, Dodd-Frank
2011 $15.543 $15.841 1.6% Japan earthquake
2012 $16.197 $16.197 2.2% Fiscal cliff
2013 $16.785 $16.495 1.8% Sequestration
2014 $17.527 $16.912 2.5% QE ends
2015 $18.225 $17.404 2.9% TPP, Iran deal
2016 $18.715 $17.689 1.6% Presidential race
2017 $19.519 $18.108 2.4% Trump Tax Act
2018 $20.580 $18.638 2.9% Deficit spending


2.3% isn't bad. It's not the numbers Trump was promising by a long shot.

It's low because of the trade war with China is my guess.
 
Metric Mouse said:
It makes me wonder if there will be a large bump in manufacturing (and/or other large parts of the economy) if/when the trade war wraps up?

Hard to find much to complain about with the U.S. economy, considering the situations much of the rest of the developed world is facing.
Click to expand...
To the bolded: Possibly. That's what I was thinking.

But that item I quoted in my post above, and now have placed here below, would seem to indicate the effects of the manufacturing slowdown - which is why I earlier quoted it.

The dropoff in 2019 was because personal consumption and exports fell, according to the Commerce Department.
Click to expand...
Personal consumption falling (due to decreased working hours & lay-offs), and exports falling (less goods being produced), are exactly what we expect to see with contracting manufacturing.

So, we shall see ...
 
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In other words, the economy is kicking slightly less ass than it was a year ago.

Liberals are PRAYING for the economy to tank. They've been hoping and warning about a crash for three years. Trying to "scare" us into a recession, I guess.

It isn't happening. The economy is just getting started under these policies.
 
Erod said:
In other words, the economy is kicking slightly less ass than it was a year ago.

Liberals are PRAYING for the economy to tank. They've been hoping and warning about a crash for three years. Trying to "scare" us into a recession, I guess.

It isn't happening. The economy is just getting started under these policies.
Click to expand...

Its a poor start.
 
swing_voter said:
2010 $14.992 $15.599 2.6% ACA, Dodd-Frank
2011 $15.543 $15.841 1.6% Japan earthquake
2012 $16.197 $16.197 2.2% Fiscal cliff
2013 $16.785 $16.495 1.8% Sequestration
2014 $17.527 $16.912 2.5% QE ends
2015 $18.225 $17.404 2.9% TPP, Iran deal
2016 $18.715 $17.689 1.6% Presidential race
2017 $19.519 $18.108 2.4% Trump Tax Act
2018 $20.580 $18.638 2.9% Deficit spending


2.3% isn't bad. It's not the numbers Trump was promising by a long shot.

It's low because of the trade war with China is my guess.
Click to expand...
To the bolded: Probably a tick or two.

But then again, we were probably a tick or two high earlier with the tax-cut temporary sugar high.
 
swing_voter said:
2010 $14.992 $15.599 2.6% ACA, Dodd-Frank
2011 $15.543 $15.841 1.6% Japan earthquake
2012 $16.197 $16.197 2.2% Fiscal cliff
2013 $16.785 $16.495 1.8% Sequestration
2014 $17.527 $16.912 2.5% QE ends
2015 $18.225 $17.404 2.9% TPP, Iran deal
2016 $18.715 $17.689 1.6% Presidential race
2017 $19.519 $18.108 2.4% Trump Tax Act
2018 $20.580 $18.638 2.9% Deficit spending


2.3% isn't bad. It's not the numbers Trump was promising by a long shot.

It's low because of the trade war with China is my guess.
Click to expand...

What you are not mentioning is that between the tax cut and spending increase, the Trump economy has gone full Keynesian. The results reflect government support that was denied Obama in the Great Recession. Even at that, with low unemployment, and low interest rates the results are meh.
I typically watch the GDPnow predictions and the economy seems to be slowing, with a fifth of the economy already in recession.
 
Anyone remember what happened to the economy the last time a Republican was president?
 
Erod said:
In other words, the economy is kicking slightly less ass than it was a year ago.

Liberals are PRAYING for the economy to tank. They've been hoping and warning about a crash for three years. Trying to "scare" us into a recession, I guess.

It isn't happening. The economy is just getting started under these policies.
Click to expand...
Yes. After a mild & quick tax-cut sugar high, it's doing pretty much the same as it's been doing for the past decade. Which isn't really such a bad thing, IMO.

My complaint isn't with the economy, as it is with Trump's bragging about it as if it's something special.

When it comes to complaints, beside Trump's hyperbolic bragging, I very much have one with the huge deficit growth though. That indeed is a huge concern, and debt service will surely bite us hard during the next downturn.
 
Erod said:
In other words, the economy is kicking slightly less ass than it was a year ago.

Liberals are PRAYING for the economy to tank. They've been hoping and warning about a crash for three years. Trying to "scare" us into a recession, I guess.

It isn't happening. The economy is just getting started under these policies.
Click to expand...
I don’t know any liberals hoping for the economy to tank. We aren’t like Republicans who were sabotaging the economy during the recession so Obama would be a one term president.

What I am doing is reporting what’s going on.
 
MTAtech said:
What you are not mentioning is that between the tax cut and spending increase, the Trump economy has gone full Keynesian. The results reflect government support that was denied Obama in the Great Recession. Even at that, with low unemployment, and low interest rates the results are meh.
I typically watch the GDPnow predictions and the economy seems to be slowing, with a fifth of the economy already in recession.
Click to expand...
The biggie here is the deficit spending. What are we getting for going deeper into hock? For >$1T it might be argued we expect more bang for the buck.
 
MTAtech said:
America's economy grew at its weakest pace since Trump took office


New York (CNN Business)The US economy in 2019 grew at its slowest pace in three years, according to preliminary data from the Commerce Department.

The economy expanded by 2.3% last year, its lowest level since 2016, when growth stood at 1.6%.
The economy under President Donald Trump has been consistently strong but not electric. In its best year, 2018, the economy expanded at a 2.9% clip. In 2017, it grew by 2.4%.
The dropoff in 2019 was because personal consumption and exports fell, according to the Commerce Department.
Critics of Obama said his economy was mediocre because he never had GDP growth at 3% or higher. Neither has Trump, with low unemployment and a trillion dollar deficit that's basically fiscal stimulus.
Trump promised on the campaign trail that he'd bring in 4, 5, and maybe 6% growth. Didn't happen. His tax-cuts were supposed to be the economic miracle to boost growth. It didn't happen. His tariffs were supposed to help exports. Exports fell.
Click to expand...

Well this is the tenth year of the longest recovery in US history. There has to be a pull back at some point. Its not like weve repealed the business cycle.
 
MTAtech said:
I don’t know any liberals hoping for the economy to tank. We aren’t like Republicans who were sabotaging the economy during the recession so Obama would be a one term president.

What I am doing is reporting what’s going on...
Click to expand...

...and hoping for the economy to tank.
 
Chomsky said:
The biggie here is the deficit spending. What are we getting for going deeper into hock? For >$1T it might be argued we expect more bang for the buck.
Click to expand...
We're getting Medicare, which is only going to continue to balloon as healthcare costs and the number of retirees continue to grow.
 
Erod said:
In other words, the economy is kicking slightly less ass than it was a year ago.

Liberals are PRAYING for the economy to tank. They've been hoping and warning about a crash for three years. Trying to "scare" us into a recession, I guess.

It isn't happening. The economy is just getting started under these policies.
Click to expand...

Liberals aren't praying for the economy to tank. Nah. That would be stupid. What liberals pray for is all Trumpists get fired from their jobs tomorrow - by Trump. The rest of us, anti-Trumpers if you will, aren't that evil, though. We don't care if your boss fires you.
 
U.S. Economy Heads Into 2020 With Steady Growth

The U.S. economy headed into 2020 on a solid footing, with growth settling back to the roughly 2% pace that has prevailed during the decade-old economic expansion.Gross domestic product—the value of all goods and services produced across the economy—grew 2.3% last year, after rising at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of 2.1% from October to December, the Commerce Department said Thursday.
Fourth-quarter growth matched the rate clocked in the third quarter.
The economy’s expansion last quarter reflected a boost from trade as exports increased and imports dropped sharply. The pace of consumer spending slowed, and business investment dropped for the third quarter in a row, while residential investment picked up.

Compared with the fourth quarter of 2018, output rose 2.3%, in line with the average pace that has prevailed through most of the expansion that began in mid-2009 and the slowest pace since 2016.
Click to expand...

9b1df1f61a.png


The U.S. economy continues to chug along, making this the 11th consecutive year of real growth. However, it has fallen short on expectations from the white White House.



And given that the deficit represented 151% of total growth at Q3 2019 (it will probably surpass 151% for Q4), it is safe to say our economy is being driven entirely by government spending.

The rest of the article can be found here.
 
Erod said:
In other words, the economy is kicking slightly less ass than it was a year ago.

Liberals are PRAYING for the economy to tank. They've been hoping and warning about a crash for three years. Trying to "scare" us into a recession, I guess.

It isn't happening. The economy is just getting started under these policies.
Click to expand...

The deficit represents more than 150% of total economic growth for 2019. It's entertaining to see you label this as kicking slightly less ass than it was a year ago.
 
Re: U.S. Economy Heads Into 2020 With Steady Growth

A monkey president could have kept the increasingly robust Obama economy chugging along.
 
Re: U.S. Economy Heads Into 2020 With Steady Growth

Kushinator said:
9b1df1f61a.png


The U.S. economy continues to chug along, making this the 11th consecutive year of real growth. However, it has fallen short on expectations from the white White House.



And given that the deficit represented 151% of total growth at Q3 2019 (it will probably surpass 151% for Q4), it is safe to say our economy is being driven entirely by government spending.

The rest of the article can be found here.
Click to expand...


The deficit graph is troubling. I hope readers click on the link.
 
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