Re: [W:104]Iran state TV: Tehran fires at Iraqi base housing US troops
More details emerged this morning about the Iranian "attack." They WARNED the Iraqis beforehand so that alarms could sound and everybody (well, that, then, also included the American guests in these Iraqi bases) got to safety. The areas of the bases that were hit were NOT populated by Americans. Even if they could not guarantee what would happen given inaccuracies in their missiles, warning in advance took care of that risk.
This, coupled with them saying right after it was diffused that there were no American casualties - and no Iraqi casualties either - that they had CONCLUDED their retaliation and wanted no escalation or war, makes it crystal clear that this was a calculated miss.
Of a large array of available targets including our embassies and consulates in the region and our 67,000 servicemen in the Middle East, all within range from their missiles (including embassies in Bagdad, Kuwait, Qatar, and UAE, all a short distance from Iranian territory), they chose to attack two IRAQI bases in areas not populated by Americans, and to make it even safer so that there wouldn't be a possibility of accidentally killing anyone, warned the Iraqis of the attack so that alarms could sound.
They clearly blinked and backed down. This "attack" was exclusively to appease their own citizenry, but done in a way that wouldn't risk a devastating retaliation by the US. They added in their statement, basically, that they will only do more IF (they even did use the word IF) the US does more.
I'll say, Trump has CLEARLY won this round. He then issued a restrained tweet, for a change, which is great. He said "all is well", said "so far so good", and simply praised the US military.
If Trump leaves it at that, or even if he repeats in a statement what the Iranians said, that is, tell them that IF they do more (meaning, inflict casualties on US military, contractors, civilians, or diplomats at home or abroad) we will retaliate, then all is well. Trump emerges victorious because his decapitation strike aimed at Iran's second in command has clearly intimidated them, and so far he has avoided plunging us into an unpopular war.
What can possibly be more intimidating to a regime that over the years has clearly cared for its own survival, than a decapitating strike aimed at their second-in-command? At this point Khamenei must be thinking, "oops, I underestimated the Americans' willingness to engage. If I overplay my hand, I may be next."
If Trump goes into mocking and taunting rants (which I'm sure he is tempted to do, but hopefully someone with some influence over him - I'm looking at you, Ivanka - keeps him calm), he will manage to negate the Iranians' face-saving weak response, practically forcing them to do more and restart the escalation. I hope that Trump, for a change, doesn't do that.
Don't mock what they did, Trump. Just say that the US will take extremely seriously and will retaliate IF they inflict casualties on any of our citizens, and leave it at that. The Iranians have already shown that they were intimidated (I mean, they even warned us indirectly of the attack, for God's sake! By warning the Iraqis so that alarms could sound, of course our own people would take cover too), so, keep the same rhetoric without adding to it, and Trump will have won the most serious crisis in his 3-year administration, and will earn an electoral bump from it.
In his address to the nation today, Trump should keep it simple. He should say that he is glad that our valuable soldiers weren't hit, and that he cares for the their safety and that of our diplomats, contractors, and their families in the region. Say that he will continue to monitor the situation and will retaliate IF the Iranians kill Americans. Praise our military some more, and rapidly conclude by saying God bless America, period, full stop. Let the whole thing die out, and some three months from now, signal that if the Iranians are willing to go back to the negotiation table and basically redo the nuclear agreement with more guarantees that they won't sponsor terrorism and will also stop missile development, he'd be willing to lift sanctions.
If Trump achieves this, it will be a major victory for him, and even though I profoundly dislike him, I'll tip my hat to him. Come on, Trump, keep your narcissism under wrap this time, for a change, and act presidential. You won; now make sure you don't spoil it.
