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- Aug 1, 2009
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In a situation where "A" and "B" are saying different things about "X", and where "A" DOES have a reason NOT to tell the truth about "X" while "B" DOES NOT have a reason NOT to tell the truth about "X", the smart money bets that "A" IS NOT telling the truth about "X" while "B" IS telling the truth about "X".
Of course, sometimes the long-shot DOES win the horse race. (But you can go really really really broke if you always bet on the long-shot.)
Where did you get the idea the Taliban have no reason to lie?