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This election model says 2020 is 'Trump's to lose'

PoS

PoS

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This election model says 2020 is 'Trump's to lose' - CNNPolitics

Washington (CNN)Donald Trump: Two-term president?

While that prospect may seem distant amid an endless series of terrible headlines -- Syria! Ukraine! Impeachment! -- for the President of late, a trio of new electoral models from Moody's Analytics all predict a victory for the incumbent in 2020.

"Results from each of the three models tell equally compelling stories about what could happen on Election Day, but we hesitate to hang our hat on only one of them," reads the report. "As a result, we average the predictions of the three models. Under the average of the three models, Trump would hold on to key industrial Midwest states and pick up New Hampshire, Virginia and Minnesota, assuming historical average non-incumbent turnout."
Click to expand...

Yup, looks like a whole bunch of people will be disappointed if Trump wins reelection, and it looks like he will.
 
This is heavily based on economic factors. I strongly suspect the American people are so fed up with scandal after scandal that they will separate the economy from their loathing of Trump and vote against him.

I for one would say the economy is largely doing well for most people. But I hate Trump for all his scandals and crimes and will vote against him even if I win ten million in the lottery next season and he promises me a tax cut. The country is far more important than a few dollars.
 
Liberals were convinced that Hillary could not lose to Trump in 2016, and if they are not careful that arrogant certainty may cost them in 2020 if those models mean anything at all.

This is why I am so concerned about Democrats not learning anything from the last time.

That said, I am not sure about these models. In reading through that PDF (the actual model source and included below) it seems we have a few hinge points related to voter turn out because of certain issues like the economy, approval ratings related to the economy and stock market, what have you.

The assumption being that we stay calm economically speaking throughout next year, that might be a rough bet.

https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2019/president-election-model.pdf
 
PoS said:
This election model says 2020 is 'Trump's to lose' - CNNPolitics



Yup, looks like a whole bunch of people will be disappointed if Trump wins reelection, and it looks like he will.
Click to expand...
Clinton won the popular vote by 48% to Trump's 46%, and lost the EC by 130K across three states.

Currently, some 52% of the public supports Trump's removal from office across several polls, including 57% of independents.

That's a devastating metric for Trump. That 4% swing suggests four or five million voters have swung against him, which correlates perfectly with the idea that those 4.2 million Obama 2012 voters who say out 2016 are now coming home to the Democratic party, and are starving to vote against Trump in 2020.

He won by a hair when he lost the popular vote by 2%, so if he's underwater for impeachment by 7%, then it starts to reason those people are NOT voting for Trump if they support impeachment, thus he is on track to lose the election in an absolute bloodbath.

This is why Pelosi has gone down the road of impeachment: her base is demanding it. That's all Democrats need to win 2020 - independents are not necessary, as 2012 showed when Obama lost them and still won over Romney by a landslide anyways. But worse still for Trump is that independents have swung towards impeachment.
 
OrphanSlug said:
Liberals were convinced that Hillary could not lose to Trump in 2016, and if they are not careful that arrogant certainty may cost them in 2020 if those models mean anything at all.

This is why I am so concerned about Democrats not learning anything from the last time.

That said, I am not sure about these models. In reading through that PDF (the actual model source and included below) it seems we have a few hinge points related to voter turn out because of certain issues like the economy, approval ratings related to the economy and stock market, what have you.

The assumption being that we stay calm economically speaking throughout next year, that might be a rough bet.

https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2019/president-election-model.pdf
Click to expand...
Actually, the Democrats are the ones with gitters, looking for some perfect candidate that perfectly captures the center, while Republicans couldn't care less about the center and running an entirely base appeal campaign for their reelection, and are counting on low turnout.
 
PoS said:
This election model says 2020 is 'Trump's to lose' - CNNPolitics



Yup, looks like a whole bunch of people will be disappointed if Trump wins reelection, and it looks like he will.
Click to expand...

"Assuming historical average non-incumbent turnout."

And I presume it presumes that everybody who voted for him in 2016 will do so again.

I think too many independents can read and don't get all their information from conservative media to assume that.
 
haymarket said:
This is heavily based on economic factors. I strongly suspect the American people are so fed up with scandal after scandal that they will separate the economy from their loathing of Trump and vote against him.

I for one would say the economy is largely doing well for most people. But I hate Trump for all his scandals and crimes and will vote against him even if I win ten million in the lottery next season and he promises me a tax cut. The country is far more important than a few dollars.
Click to expand...

What the American people are fed up with is "Manufactured Scandal After Scandal". All backed by nothing but innuendo.
 
MovingPictures said:
Actually, the Democrats are the ones with gitters, looking for some perfect candidate that perfectly captures the center, while Republicans couldn't care less about the center and running an entirely base appeal campaign for their reelection, and are counting on low turnout.
Click to expand...

There is nothing... absolutely nothing... going on with this lot of Democratic hopefuls that suggests looking for center and Independent voters, they are all entrenched in the effort of one upping each other in appealing to the furthest left.
 
Didn't Moody's predict a Clinton win in 2016?
 
BahamaBob said:
What the American people are fed up with is "Manufactured Scandal After Scandal". All backed by nothing but innuendo.
Click to expand...

WOW!!!! Even when the President and his Chief of Staff issue public confessions your faith is not a bit shaken. That is some really heavy case of Truebelieverism you have there.
 
PoS said:
This election model says 2020 is 'Trump's to lose' - CNNPolitics

Yup, looks like a whole bunch of people will be disappointed if Trump wins reelection, and it looks like he will.
Click to expand...

This is the third or fourth time this story has surfaced on DP.

Just like all the other times, it's worth noting that Moodys rolled out this model in 2008, and it got the 2008 and 2012 elections correct, but missed in 2016. So it had a record about as good as a coin flip, 2/3 in a yes/no three question test. They substantially revised it for 2020, and so this new version is untested, has a record of 0 for 0.

It's not clear why anyone cares what this model predicts, at least to me.
 
OrphanSlug said:
There is nothing... absolutely nothing... going on with this lot of Democratic hopefuls that suggests looking for center and Independent voters ...
Click to expand...
Even Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar? Come on.

Trump is going all out for the rural American, don't give a **** about anything but a taxcut, vote, and is throwing everything else to the wind.
 
MovingPictures said:
Even Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar? Come on.

Trump is going all out for the rural American, don't give a **** about anything but a taxcut, vote, and is throwing everything else to the wind.
Click to expand...

Buttigieg, maybe, but only because he is being practical in a sea of far left pie in the sky thinking uselessness.
 
Cardinal said:
Didn't Moody's predict a Clinton win in 2016?
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Yes, but it doesn't count because with perfect hindsight they changed the model so that it would have predicted a Trump win, so this new model is the bestest ever and Trump will win!

Moodys is like the Wall Street consultant version of the Monday morning quarterback. With perfect hindsight they're awesome at telling us what would have worked (or not worked...) had they used this prediction model in the past, but aren't so good at actual, you know, predictions.
 
Cardinal said:
Didn't Moody's predict a Clinton win in 2016?
Click to expand...

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This is what happens when you use an economics model that does not input other parameters, like "dis-approval"! You get a Clinton win prediction in 2016.

And now, you ignore Trump's record high disapprovals.
 
Also, I wonder how many House seats the 'economics only' model gave to Trump in 2018? Probably, quite a few!
 
I trust no polls. I trust no predictions. I trust nothing at this stage. Trump is so controversial and so unconventional that any attempt to apply any standard to him, and 2020, is going to be a complete and total toss up.
 
PoS said:
This election model says 2020 is 'Trump's to lose' - CNNPolitics



Yup, looks like a whole bunch of people will be disappointed if Trump wins reelection, and it looks like he will.
Click to expand...


The problem with this projection is turnout. If turnout stays low, djt may win. With a large turnout, dems will win. In 2016 it was Dem voters that lost enthusiasm for their candidate. In 2020, R's will have turnout problems. For example, does anyone believe that America's farmers will turn out for djt the way they did in 2016?
 
PoS said:
This election model says 2020 is 'Trump's to lose' - CNNPolitics



Yup, looks like a whole bunch of people will be disappointed if Trump wins reelection, and it looks like he will.
Click to expand...

Of course people will be disappointed if he wins. The other side will be disappointed if he loses. This is not a good reason to gloat. Nor is it reason enough to vote, when there are issues at play that don't involve 'owning the libtards'. It's a sad state of affairs that it has come to this and neither side can find common ground.

Moreover if he wins people will be more than just 'disappointed'. More Americans will be economically disadvantaged, electorally disenfranchised, racially and sexually discriminated against and a host of other genuine reasons to be concerned about 4 more years of Trumpism. Laugh all you like at their 'disappointment' but they WILL have bigger problems thanks to trump and his cultish base.
 
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