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Trump is on his way to an easy win in 2020, according to Moody’s accurate election model

Trump said:
why didn't Pelosi Impeach over RussiaGate 1.0 if she had the goods like you believe?
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They would have 'had the goods' if Congress wasn't stonewalled at every turn. Documents refused to be turned over, subpoenas denied, even contempt of Congress was ignored. ALL of it, all the breadcrumbs that Mueller left up to Congress to do their oversight was blocked by Trump. That's another of the impeachment articles, obstruction of justice. This could have all been investigated and over with long ago, but Trump decided he's going to play hardball with Congress and not allow them their constitutional duty of oversight of his office. Now he's going to find out that Congress will play by the rules of the Constitution, not his rules.
 
HumblePi said:
I bet they will
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I'll take that bet. My $10k to your $1k. Winnings go to the philanthropy of the winner's choice. I do know how to make it happen with anonymity for the wagers.

Put up or shut up, as the saying goes.
 
OldFatGuy said:
Despite the surveys and the polls, Moody's, which has done well with predicting presidential campaign outcomes, has this to say:

Moody's: Trump on his way to an easy 2020 win if economy holds up



A shoe in for Trump.
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A few points come to mind...

Typically, re-election of presidents are highly influenced by economic performance. This is not a typical election. Many voters are questioning the competence of Trump. Others question his honesty and others other areas other presidents didn’t have to prove.

The other factor was IF the economy holds up. Agriculture is in a recession as is shipping. In fact, a fifth of the economy is in a slump. Economic growth is only in the 2% range, in spite of promises of much, much higher growth that the tax cuts on corporations was supposed to raise. Next year, the economy is supposed to be worse, according to economic models.
 
OldFatGuy said:
I'll take that bet. My $10k to your $1k. Winnings go to the philanthropy of the winner's choice. I do know how to make it happen with anonymity for the wagers.

Put up or shut up, as the saying goes.
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I'm satisfied with only an apology to the winner and some 'mia culpa' for being so wrong for 3 years.
 
OldFatGuy said:
You should have read the link in the OP. It made a point of that failure.
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The Moody’s model didn’t account for Russian interference.
 
OldFatGuy said:
Medium sized farmers are suffering. Supersize farmers are humming along nicely, and boutique farmers tend to be immune to foreign markets.

Manufacturing data is based on revenues. The high end capital goods manufacturing runs 3 years ahead of revenues, or the revenues reflect orders made 3 or more years ago. Since companies outside of Boeing and a few others do not release order information, we have no method for truly judging manufacturing positions. But what we do know is that the US controls more than 70% of high end, high profit, capital goods manufacturing. This translates to higher manufacturing profits at lower labor costs, the bane of manufacturing. Samsung and LG may produce more TV's than anyone else, but they buy their dies, presses, kilns, and so forth from the US.
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No way to judge manufacturing? Are you kidding? The government has all kinds of metrics.

fredgraph.png
 
MTAtech said:
A few points come to mind...

Typically, re-election of presidents are highly influenced by economic performance. This is not a typical election. Many voters are questioning the competence of Trump. Others question his honesty and others other areas other presidents didn’t have to prove.

The other factor was IF the economy holds up. Agriculture is in a recession as is shipping. In fact, a fifth of the economy is in a slump. Economic growth is only in the 2% range, in spite of promises of much, much higher growth that the tax cuts on corporations was supposed to raise. Next year, the economy is supposed to be worse, according to economic models.
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I think the egregious and devious shadow government these bastards were trying to pull off will supersede anything else. We need to remind ourselves that it's only been one month since Sept. 12th, the first report of a whistleblower. Things have been moving along at warp speed. Since depositions started, it's only been a couple of weeks. I know it seems like ages ago, but the first deposition of Kurt Volker only took place on October 2nd., not even two weeks ago.

Since Oct. 2nd we've heard very damaging bits and pieces of depositions, and many more are on the horizon. Not only that but people within the government are now coming forward and anxious to give depositions. This is going to end extremely badly for the GOP and for Trump. If Trump is still around next year, I think this is by far going to overshadow any other thing he wants to pick out to prove how much 'good' he has accomplished.
 
HumblePi said:
Moody's must have forgotten a tiny little detail. Most of Trump's cabinet are staring down the barrel of indictments, some of them criminal indictments. Then there's the little tidbit that Trump will be running in 2020 under impeachment.
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Yeah, we know. Democrats have been working hard on producing the "... Barring anything unusual happening ..." .

Let's hope they continue to be as successful in their endeavour as they have been for more than 3 years now. ;)
 
Republicans need to help remove Trump from office and then, and only then, would I consider voting for another Republican.
 
“If people voted purely based on these arbitrary economic figures we picked...”

Yeah, but they ****in don’t.
 
Barnacle said:
Yeah, we know. Democrats have been working hard on producing the "... Barring anything unusual happening ..." .

Let's hope they continue to be as successful in their endeavour as they have been for more than 3 years now. ;)
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Republicans need to stop pretending this is a normal presidency and it’s all about Democrats making unwarranted attacks. He literally admitted to bribery and extortion. It’s well documented he’s violating the emoluments clause.
 
MTAtech said:
Republicans need to stop pretending this is a normal presidency and it’s all about Democrats making unwarranted attacks. He literally admitted to bribery and extortion. It’s well documented he’s violating the emoluments clause.
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that's only in real reality, though.
 
MTAtech said:
Republicans need to stop pretending this is a normal presidency and it’s all about Democrats making unwarranted attacks. He literally admitted to bribery and extortion. It’s well documented he’s violating the emoluments clause.
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Sure ...
 
OldFatGuy said:
Medium sized farmers are suffering.
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you heard that in the "whine cellar"
Supersize farmers are humming along nicely,
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ie corporate farms, insignificant vote
and boutique farmers tend to be immune to foreign markets.
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See previous.

Manufacturing data is based on revenues. The high end capital goods manufacturing runs 3 years ahead of revenues, or the revenues reflect orders made 3 or more years ago. Since companies outside of Boeing and a few others do not release order information, we have no method for truly judging manufacturing positions. But what we do know is that the US controls more than 70% of high end, high profit, capital goods manufacturing. This translates to higher manufacturing profits at lower labor costs, the bane of manufacturing. Samsung and LG may produce more TV's than anyone else, but they buy their dies, presses, kilns, and so forth from the US.
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mfgpix5.png


Manufacturing Employment, Hours Decline in September | Econbrowser
 
Interesting.
I shall have to read this more closely if I remember to decide to care enough.

I expect they're wrong, but it's possible they're right.

Be interesting to see how the prediction updates as time progresses.
 
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Trump said:
Pelosi must stop Trump from enacting Putin's plan for Amerika?......:2rofll:

Did you believe it the first time?....RussiaGate......this is just Part 2 and there will be a part 3 and part 4 before Trump leaves office in 2024.

Just DJT dredging the swamp as I see it
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I honestly want to hear what right wingers thought “drain the swamp” meant when they first heard it. Can you explain it?
 
Deuce said:
I honestly want to hear what right wingers thought “drain the swamp” meant when they first heard it. Can you explain it?
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Removing people that only want power and money and don't want to represent the people.
 
SLC said:
Removing people that only want power and money and don't want to represent the people.
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And... that’s ... what...you think....Trump is doing?
 
HumblePi said:
Moody's must have forgotten a tiny little detail. Most of Trump's cabinet are staring down the barrel of indictments, some of them criminal indictments. Then there's the little tidbit that Trump will be running in 2020 under impeachment.
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Proof?
 
OldFatGuy said:
if economy holds up
.
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With the -3.4% drop in September, following the -3.0% drop in August, -5.9% drop in July, -5.3% drop in June, and the -6.0% drop in May, we repeat our message from the previous four months: the shipments index has gone from “warning of a potential slowdown” to “signaling an economic contraction.”

The weakness in spot market pricing for many transportation services, especially trucking, is consistent with the negative Cass Shipments Index and, along with airfreight and railroad volume data, strengthens our concerns about the economy and the risk of ongoing trade policy disputes. Weakness in commodity prices, and the ongoing decline in interest rates, have all joined the chorus of signals calling for an economic contraction.

cassfreightpix.png


“More Signs of Contraction – When Will the GDP Turn Negative?” | Econbrowser
 
SLC said:
Comey, McCabe, Brennan, Clapper are all swamp rats.
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Ok, but what characteristics make up a “swamp rat?” What would “filling the swamp” be?
 
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