Voters were asked whether they would definitely or probably vote for President Trump next year, or definitely or probably vote for the Democratic candidate. Among all registered voters, 29 percent said they would definitely vote for Trump, 9 percent said they would probably vote for him, 13 percent said they would probably vote for the Democrat, and 34 percent would definitely side with the Democrat. That gives Democrats a 47 to 38 percent advantage. Eight percent were undecided, and 7 percent either refused to answer or said they would vote for someone else.
Thirty percent of the respondents, a total of 603, can be called swing voters, who were either undecided or only “probably” going to vote for either Trump or the Democrat. Of the 9 percent who said they would probably vote for Trump, just over half (5 percent of all voters) said there was a chance they would vote for the Democrat, while 4 percent said no chance. Of the 13 percent who would probably vote for the Democrat, just a quarter (3 percent of all voters) said that there was a chance they would vote for Trump, while the others said there was no chance. Those who only probably would vote for one candidate but definitely would not vote for the other have a good chance of either not voting or throwing a vote to a third-party candidate.