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NOAA Contradicts Weather Service, Backs Trump On Hurricane Threat In Alabama

tres borrachos said:
I didn't know I was trying to collude with Russians. When did that happen? And why did I fail at it?

Who wants to impeach Trump over a weather map and a Sharpie? I remember asking you for a link. You didn't post it. Surely you aren't lying about the Democrats impeaching Trump over a weather map and a Sharpie.
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Translation: You know you are being petty in trying to get Trump over a stupid weather map because all else failed.
 
W_Heisenberg said:
An investigation doesn't "fail" if the investigator doesn't uncover sufficient evidence to prove a crime. The whole point of an investigation is to find out the truth about something.

With respect to Obstruction, there is enough evidence to support impeachment and a conviction. The problem is GOP Senators don't care that Trump may have obstructed justice. In fact, 40% of the population doesn't care that Trump may have obstructed justice. Trump supporters care more about their own favorite policy goals more than they care about our country as a whole, sadly. That's the sad, ugly truth.

With respect to the legality of defacing an official weather map, Trump will not face any legal or political consequences.

With respect to the morality of defacing an official weather map in an attempt to lie to the American people, I think Trump should face political consequences. I am perpetually mystified that Trump supporters do not care that Trump is a habitual liar. I can only assume Trump supporters are okay with people lying, and do not think lying is a bad thing. Remind me never to do business with Trump supporters or ask them to do simple things like hold my wallet. They will just lie and cheat, so better to not take the risk. Trump supporters obviously think lying is okay so it's better to deal only with people who aren't Trump supporters. They still believe lying is a bad thing.
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60% of the public doesn't support impeachment, including Nancy Pelosi.
 
americanwoman said:
You're wrong in that you think it's about "getting him".

It's about how freaking idiotic is is to present a map altered with a sharpie in a professional setting.

We can all see you accept such nonsense but most of us don't.
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It's freaking idiotic to attack Trump over a stupid weather map. It just shows that since everything else has failed, this is all you've got, your best shot. A weathermap.
 
Moderate Right said:
60% of the public doesn't support impeachment, including Nancy Pelosi.
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I accept this statistic as true, but that doesn't mean the investigation "failed", and that doesn't mean Trump did not obstruct justice.
 
Moderate Right said:
LOL. Did you get Trump for Russian collusion? No. Did you get Trump for obstruction of justice? No. Are you trying to get him for a weather map? Yes. You're really grasping at straws now if you think future history books are going to show that Trump was impeached and removed from office over a weather map.
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Why do you put words in my mouth?
 
Moderate Right said:
It's freaking idiotic to attack Trump over a stupid weather map. It just shows that since everything else has failed, this is all you've got, your best shot. A weathermap.
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I can't speak for anyone else, but I am not criticizing Trump for a "stupid weather map", instead I am criticizing Trump for lying to the American people.

This isn't anyone else's fault. The media didn't lie. Trump lied. The media and the "libs" didn't mark up the weather map. Trump did. It's Trump's fault. He lied. And the media was not alone in perpetuating this issue. I think Trump tweeted at least 10 times about this issue, perpetuating the original lie.

Do you accept the fact that Trump lied when he marked up the map with a sharpie?

Do you acknowledge that lying is wrong and the President should not lie to the American people?

And guess what? It's the fault of Trump supporters for not admitting their Dear Leader lied.
 
Moderate Right said:
It's freaking idiotic to attack Trump over a stupid weather map. It just shows that since everything else has failed, this is all you've got, your best shot. A weathermap.
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You look the other way when people show you marker altered maps but I am going to call them out.

And if you think one altered map is the only thing I have to show Trump is a moron, you obviously are so far down there is no hope for you.
 
Moderate Right said:
Translation: You know you are being petty in trying to get Trump over a stupid weather map because all else failed.
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Trying to "get" him? How does someone "get" someone else over a Sharpie?

Translation of your post: "I'm lying. And peeing in my panties because every is calling my hero Trump a liar."
 
W_Heisenberg said:
The alleged "mistake" you are referring to was when the storm was a tropical storm BEFORE it formed into a hurricane. There are limits to the kinds of predictions meteorologists can make.
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Yes, they got that part wrong too. You are quite right. There are lots of limits to meteorologist predictions, which only underscores the fact that they shouldn't pretend to be certain about things for which they cannot be certain.
 
Taylor said:
they got that part wrong too
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They didn't have it wrong, they didn't have the information to make a forecast. There's a difference.

You are willing to excuse the lies of Trump because meteorologists cannot predict the future with 100% accuracy and without the requisite data? That's ridiculous.

which only underscores the fact that they shouldn't pretend to be certain about things for which they cannot be certain.
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No, you don't understand, the NWS has to act in the real world. So, in an instance where there is a Tornado warning for instance, They have to say something might happen, and they also have to refrain from saying something might happen if there is little chance it will.

If they don't do this right, people die.

Let me give an example. If there is only a 0.000001% chance a tornado will strike a given area, and the NWS keeps saying: "Be careful, be careful, be careful! A tornado might strike Any moment a tornado might strike!" People will not pay any attention to the forecasts

So what Trump did is similar to a boy crying wolf, it was similar to saying a tornado might hit when there was only an infinitesimal chance it would. That is a MISTAKE. And the President should ADMIT it, instead of lying. And you and all of Trump's supporters should admit it too.

The general public understands and accepts the fact that meteorologists' forecasts aren't always perfect.

And I don't fault them for not saying the following:

Hurricane-force-winds will not strike Alabama (although there is a 0.0000000000001% chance it might).

So when you say the NWS shouldn't make definitive statements it doesn't make any sense. They have to act in the real world to give real advice to real people. They can't just draw on a map like Trump making sh*t up to avoid bruising his ego. Get real. Have some common sense. And have the courage and intellectual honesty to accept Trump is not perfect and makes mistakes, and have the courage and honesty to call him out when he LIES.

What I don't understand, is that you think the Alabama NWS has to be infinitely precise in the communications they release, infinitely wise, infinitely all-knowing, omniscient, and on the other hand Trump can lie to our faces, and you're okay with that and blame the media for HIS mistake and HIS lies. That boggles my mind. It makes absolutely no sense. The only way it makes sense is if you are either a liar, a fanatically partisan person, or a member of a cult who accepts what the cult leader says without question. That's the only way the things you've been writing make any sense at all.
 
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W_Heisenberg said:
They didn't have it wrong, they didn't have the information to make a forecast. There's a difference.
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No, they had it wrong. This storm was very difficult to predict. They had problems predicting its track, intensity and speed.
 
Taylor said:
No, they had it wrong. This storm was very difficult to predict. They had problems predicting its track, intensity and speed.
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This isn't something meteorologists said they could do. They never said they could predict the path of a Hurricane with any significant degree of accuracy before it forms. What you are suggesting, within the context of this discussion, is crazy talk. Plain and simple.

They are not the problem.

The problem is Trump. Trump is the one that misled us. Trump is the one that cannot understand weather forecasts. Trump is the one that lied.
 
W_Heisenberg said:
This isn't something meteorologists said they could do. They never said they could predict the path of a Hurricane with any significant degree of accuracy before it forms.
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Please quote to me where I said "before it forms" I wasn't talking about "before it forms" you obviously didn't follow the hurricane coverage before the TDS kicked in.
 
Taylor said:
Please quote to me where I said "before it forms" I wasn't talking about "before it forms" you obviously didn't follow the hurricane coverage before the TDS kicked in.
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This is what you wrote:

Taylor said:
So what? The same thing was true for the area above Puerto Rico on Aug 27th, and then two days later the eye of the storm went right through it.
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1. The path it took was still within the zone of prediction for the storm. So, it's not like it was predicted to be in Puerto Rico and ended up in Brazil or something.

2. It was not classified as a Hurricane until August 28th.

3. The eye of the hurricane didn't form until August 30th.

4. As time passes they gather more and more data on an emerging Hurricane. It's only when a tropical cyclone presenting a threat to the U.S. first forms does NOAA begin the most vigorous activity with regard to monitoring the emerging threat.

5. As the forces of the Hurricane concentrate and emerge out of tropical storm/cyclone it becomes easier to track its progress.

6. You and Donald Trump are out of your element. So when it comes to believing Trump or the experts on some particular topic both you and "the Donald" need to be quiet and listen.

before the TDS kicked in.
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It's true. I don't like Trump. I think he is a miserable excuse for a human being. I cannot fathom how ordinarily normal, sane human beings somehow think he's awesome, but then again I'm not in favor of the sick and disgusting policies he has implemented, tried to implement, or wants to implement.

I don't call it TDS. I call it being very irritated when people lie to me.

I don't know what to call whatever syndrome you appear to have. I think maybe it's just called being in a cult and worshipping a cult leader.
 
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Taylor said:
Yes, they got that part wrong too. You are quite right. There are lots of limits to meteorologist predictions, which only underscores the fact that they shouldn't pretend to be certain about things for which they cannot be certain.
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W_Heisenberg said:
This is what you wrote:



1. The path it took was still within the zone of prediction for the storm. So, it's not like it was predicted to be in Puerto Rico and ended up in Brazil or something.

2. It was not classified as a Hurricane until August 28th.

3. The eye of the hurricane didn't form until August 30th.

4. As time passes they gather more and more data on an emerging Hurricane. It's only when a tropical cyclone presenting a threat to the U.S. first forms does NOAA begin the most vigorous activity with regard to monitoring the emerging threat.

5. As the forces of the Hurricane concentrate and emerge out of tropical storm/cyclone it becomes easier to track its progress.

6. You and Donald Trump are out of your element. So when it comes to believing Trump or the experts on some particular topic both you and "the Donald" need to be quiet and listen.



It's true. I don't like Trump. I think he is a miserable excuse for a human being. I cannot fathom how ordinarily normal, sane human beings somehow think he's awesome, but then again I'm not in favor of the sick and disgusting policies he has implemented, tried to implement, or wants to implement.

I don't call it TDS. I call it being very irritated when people lie to me.

I don't know what to call whatever syndrome you appear to have. I think maybe it's just called being in a cult and worshipping a cult leader.
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No, this what I wrote:
Taylor said:
No, they had it wrong. This storm was very difficult to predict. They had problems predicting its track, intensity and speed.
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And no, what made Dorian difficult to predict was that it was a smaller, slow-moving storm and therefore more vulnerable to environmental influences than a larger storm.
 
Taylor said:
No, this what I wrote:

And no, what made Dorian difficult to predict was that it was a smaller, slow-moving storm and therefore more vulnerable to environmental influences than a larger storm.
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Let's examine how asinine your position is...

First, let me preface what I am going to say by suggesting that it is my expectation that we already agree on the same basic set of assumptions:

1. The NWS/NOAA and the President both have an obligation to give the most accurate and up-to-date information to the American people about threats from Hurricanes. This is something I hope you would agree with me on.

2. The NWS/NOAA uses the best available scientific tools to make predictions of future weather events, and that they do not consult one's intuition, do not consult oracles, and do not engage in any sort of actions which do not involve math, science, and the scientific method. The President also recognizes that the NWS/NOAA employs the best tools to conduct such forecasts and also recognizes that the NWS/NOAA is the best source of information within the executive branch as it concerns hurricanes.

3. The NWS/NOAA and the President are both recognized to not be perfect. Despite the fact that the NWS/NOAA uses the latest tools to make future predictions, there is no model, which can account for all the real-world variables. Also, we recognize the President is not infallible and can make mistakes just as any other human being can make mistakes.

4. Both the NWS/NOAA and the President have an obligation, to be as honest as practically possible with the American people, and to not deceive the American people.

So, these are the assumptions I am working with as I analyze this event. I don't know which set of assumptions you are working with, but this is the set of assumptions, that no matter your party affiliation or perception of Trump, that I hope and expect you would also agree with.

Some may ask why I have a problem with the statements you've made.

Well, it's clear you hold Trump to a different standard than anyone else. That's my problem.

Assuming the forecasts published by the NOAA are the best source of information available to the President, he was incorrect when he tweeted Alabama would be hit by the hurricane. At worst, there was a small chance that Alabama would be struck by high winds from the remnants of a former hurricane. Further, at the time he tweeted this already inaccurate information, the forecasts did not predict any chance of hurricane-force winds hitting Alabama. The worst-case scenario, at the time of his tweet, is that a small portion of Alabama, representing no more than 5 to 10% of the area of Alabama, had a 5 to 10% chance of being struck by winds NOT exceeding 58 MPH, well below Hurricane-force winds of 74 MPH. What this means is that not only was Trump incorrect when he tweeted about Alabama, he was nearly, entirely wrong.

So, Trump was nearly entirely wrong....but he gets his pass because, well, I don't know...MAGA or something.

We move on to your assessment of the statement from Alabama NWS. Now, when Alabama NWS corrected Trump, based on similar forecasts Trump which was unable to decipher, Alabama NWS said the Hurricane would not strike Alabama, stop worrying. Alabama NWS was saying this based on the idea that something like 90 to 95% of the area Alabama was predicted to not experience any weather event related to the remnants of the Hurricane -- AT ALL, NOTHING / NADA / ZILCH / ZERO -- and that 5 to 10% of the area of Alabama was at risk of wind speeds of only 39 to 58 MPH.

So, assuming the forecasts are the best sources of information available to Alabama NWS, Alabama NWS was nearly, entirely correct.

Assuming the forecasts are the best available information to, Trump, an assumption Trump himself ALSO made, then Trump was nearly entirely wrong, and then LIED about, by defacing a weather forecast of the path of the Hurricane (mind you he wasn't even displaying the forecast of the wind probabilities), and the reason he lied was he was trying to cover up his mistake to protect his fragile ego.

Trump was nearly, entirely wrong; and on the other hand, Alabama NWS was nearly entirely correct, but who do you blame?

You blame Alabama NWS for contradicting the "dear leader". That is how I know you are a member of a de facto cult.

Alabama NWS was nearly entirely correct, and Trump was nearly entirely wrong and lied about it, but your input on this incident is Alabama NWS should not make statements of "certainty".

You've got to effing kidding me.
 
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I couldn't fit everything in the post above, so I created this second reply:

No, they had it wrong. This storm was very difficult to predict. They had problems predicting its track, intensity and speed.
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1. Every storm is difficult to predict. What are we going to do instead? Consult dowsing rods? Trump's intuition?

2. My rebuttal to this argument you're making, that they couldn't gauge the track of the tropical storm accurately when it was near Puerto Rico, so therefore somehow we can't be 100% certain where any storm or hurricane is going to go, and so therefore Trump was somehow still correct when he gave out the wrong information about the forecasts in his tweet, is very simple:

a) NOAA doesn't train all its resources on a weather event until a tropical storm forms a cyclone.

b) The paths of hurricanes are difficult to predict before the hurricane forms. One reason for this is related to point "A", and another reason is the nature of the tropical storm. So when it's a tropical storm, before the cyclone forms, and even after a pre-Hurricane cyclone forms, it is harder to predict the path than a fully formed hurricane. Two of the variables of the tropical storm, which differ from Hurricanes, include the following: the tropical storm/cyclone is not as intense, and the pathway of the eye of the storm is significantly smaller.
 
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W_Heisenberg said:
I find it amusing that after all this time you guys are still giving Trump the benefit of the doubt.

It's not a symptom of mental illness to insist the leader of our country refrain from lying. It's a sign of rationality and common sense.

It's also a sign of good moral character. I consider it a sign of bad moral character to support Trump's lies.

The first piece of evidence is that Trump routinely uses a sharpie to write on things.

The second piece of evidence is this article:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...597606-cfe7-11e9-8c1c-7c8ee785b855_story.html

Now, until you can provide evidence to the contrary, your entire post is pure Trump Cultism.
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Why are you surprised? Members of the Trump cult will worship him even if he destroys our democracy. There is no bottom for them.
 
akyron said:
Aye.
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CNN has an obligation to broadcast accurate information.

CNN has an obligation to refrain from lying.

Trump has the same obligation. Trump has the obligation to tweet accurate information. Trump has the obligation to refrain from lying.

Every citizen has this same obligation. We owe this to each other.
 
W_Heisenberg said:
CNN has an obligation to broadcast accurate information.

CNN has an obligation to refrain from lying.

Trump has the same obligation. Trump has the obligation to tweet accurate information. Trump has the obligation to refrain from lying.

Every citizen has this same obligation. We owe this to each other.
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So NOAA told him something and he passed it on. Why are we surprised they admit to what was in the brief?
 
Phys251 said:
Members of the Trump cult will worship him even if he destroys our democracy.
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Just how exactly is he doing that?

Is he suspending elections?
Has he declared himself president for life?
Is he disenfranchising legal voters?

Or just maybe, are you yet another over-the-top lefty who can't stand it when you lose?
 
stevecanuck said:
Just how exactly is he doing that?
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Your question is a question of indignation, not investigation.

Is he suspending elections?
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Your side would be fine if he did.

Has he declared himself president for life?
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Trump Says His Supporters Might ‘Demand’ More Than Two Terms

Is he disenfranchising legal voters?
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Republicans repeatedly do that.

Or just maybe, are you yet another over-the-top lefty who can't stand it when you lose?
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:lamo

Couldn't get through a single post without an ad hom, could you. :lol: When you're that quick to attack the person and not the stance, it's a good sign that you don't have anything of value to contribute. :thumbs:
 
akyron said:
So NOAA told him something and he passed it on. Why are we surprised they admit to what was in the brief?
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That's not how it went down. Trump doctored out-of-date information.
 
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