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Fed's Powell says he doesn't foresee a US recession

Common Sense 1

Common Sense 1

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Great news for our country!! :mrgreen:

Fed's Powell says he doesn't foresee a US recession

Fed'''s Powell says he doesn'''t foresee a US recession | Fox Business

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he does not foresee the U.S. sliding into a recession soon, despite a slowdown in global growth and uncertainties surrounding the U.S.-China trade war.

"I wouldn't see the recession as the most likely outcome in the U.S.," he said during a question-and-answer session in Zurich, Switzerland on Friday.

Powell said that data shows the U.S. economy will continue to expand at a moderate pace, with a strong labor market and inflation hovering around the Fed's 2 percent target.
 
If that’s the case he shouldn’t be cutting interest rates by any amount, but they are.

Now there is some weird **** going on between Trump and the Fed that should be uncomfortable for those bystanders that understand why the Fed exists in the first place and Trumps open hostility and even priming the White House counsel to see whether it’s possible for him to fire the head of the Fed, Trumps continued insistence that the Fed cut interest rates despite a supposedly healthy economy is going to further have this problem of the market being drunk on cheap credit.

In a situation in which a recession could happen despite what Powell is saying here, the tools the Fed and politicians have at their disposal to deal with it could be greatly diminished due to keeping interest rates at historic lows, taxes and government revenues already being cut during a supposed time of prosperity and a trade war to boot, could have disastrous consequences for the economy.

We’ll see what happens but the idea this can just go on forever is a pipe dream, sooner or later it’s going to come crashing down as it always does, usually presidents get too much credit and too much blame for good and bad economies, but trade wars and undermining the independence of The Fed is a sure fire way to take some heat in my mind.

But no, maybe I’m just a Trump hater or something.
 
Common Sense 1 said:
Great news for our country!! :mrgreen:

Fed's Powell says he doesn't foresee a US recession

Fed'''s Powell says he doesn'''t foresee a US recession | Fox Business

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he does not foresee the U.S. sliding into a recession soon, despite a slowdown in global growth and uncertainties surrounding the U.S.-China trade war.

"I wouldn't see the recession as the most likely outcome in the U.S.," he said during a question-and-answer session in Zurich, Switzerland on Friday.

Powell said that data shows the U.S. economy will continue to expand at a moderate pace, with a strong labor market and inflation hovering around the Fed's 2 percent target.
Click to expand...

Wasn't everyone saying it was all rose gardens at the start of 2007?

Trump opened a mortgage company didn't he?
 
If the economy is so good then he should be raising rates.

Then again with a good economy the US should be in a surplus paying off its debt, but...

Sent from my JSN-L21 using Tapatalk
 
Keep America Great!
 
PeteEU said:
If the economy is so good then he should be raising rates.

Then again with a good economy the US should be in a surplus paying off its debt, but...

Sent from my JSN-L21 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Those are different questions. It is possible to have a stable market with moderate growth, with softness due to international uncertainty, and still not expect a recession.

The deficit/debt is another issue entirely. We would be in a much better position there if congress would reign in spending.
 
Common Sense 1 said:
Great news for our country!! :mrgreen:

Fed's Powell says he doesn't foresee a US recession

Fed'''s Powell says he doesn'''t foresee a US recession | Fox Business

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he does not foresee the U.S. sliding into a recession soon, despite a slowdown in global growth and uncertainties surrounding the U.S.-China trade war.

"I wouldn't see the recession as the most likely outcome in the U.S.," he said during a question-and-answer session in Zurich, Switzerland on Friday.

Powell said that data shows the U.S. economy will continue to expand at a moderate pace, with a strong labor market and inflation hovering around the Fed's 2 percent target.
Click to expand...
Not what the Democrats wanna hear.
 
dcsports said:
Those are different questions. It is possible to have a stable market with moderate growth, with softness due to international uncertainty, and still not expect a recession.

The deficit/debt is another issue entirely. We would be in a much better position there if congress would reign in spending.
Click to expand...

the biggest US spend is on defence $750 billion plus what it spends on black projects .... nobody asked America to be the world policeman .. cut it to 1/5 of that and at $150 billion American soil will still be pretty safe with all the guns in circulation .. nobody in there right mind would dare to invade America

find another 300 - $400 billion in cuts and you are in surplus
 
When was the last time a fed char forsaw a recession?
 
Rexedgar said:
What point are you trying to make?
Click to expand...

That the Fed can't unilaterally raise interest rates when the rest of the world's central banks are keeping rates BELOW zero. Should be pretty simple if not for partisan politics.

How can any reasonable person except the Fed to raise rates in the face of the rest of the world's central banks.

That near–$17 trillion pile of negative-yielding global debt? It’s a cash cow for some bond investors - MarketWatch

Take a minute to read this article,perhaps this will help you understand the problem.
 
Last edited:
washunut said:
That the Fed can't unilaterally raise interest rates when the rest of the world's central banks are keeping rates BELOW zero. Should be pretty simple if not for partisan politics.

How can any reasonable person except the Fed to raise rates in the face of the rest of the world's central banks.
Click to expand...

I’m not an economics major, but didn't the Federal Reserve just lower the rate by 1/4%?
 
Rexedgar said:
I’m not an economics major, but didn't the Federal Reserve just lower the rate by 1/4%?
Click to expand...

In November 2016 the rate was 0.5% it is now 2.25% AFTER the current reduction. So the rest of the world has lowered rates while the U.S. raised rates and put a scare of recession. The Federal Funds rate is Higher than the 30 year treasury. Perhaps there are members of the Fed who are rooting for a recession in 2019-2020.
 
Good post.

Jetboogieman said:
If that’s the case he shouldn’t be cutting interest rates by any amount, but they are.

Now there is some weird **** going on between Trump and the Fed that should be uncomfortable for those bystanders that understand why the Fed exists in the first place and Trumps open hostility and even priming the White House counsel to see whether it’s possible for him to fire the head of the Fed, Trumps continued insistence that the Fed cut interest rates despite a supposedly healthy economy is going to further have this problem of the market being drunk on cheap credit.

In a situation in which a recession could happen despite what Powell is saying here, the tools the Fed and politicians have at their disposal to deal with it could be greatly diminished due to keeping interest rates at historic lows, taxes and government revenues already being cut during a supposed time of prosperity and a trade war to boot, could have disastrous consequences for the economy.

We’ll see what happens but the idea this can just go on forever is a pipe dream, sooner or later it’s going to come crashing down as it always does, usually presidents get too much credit and too much blame for good and bad economies, but trade wars and undermining the independence of The Fed is a sure fire way to take some heat in my mind.

But no, maybe I’m just a Trump hater or something.
Click to expand...
 
washunut said:
That the Fed can't unilaterally raise interest rates when the rest of the world's central banks are keeping rates BELOW zero. Should be pretty simple if not for partisan politics.

How can any reasonable person except the Fed to raise rates in the face of the rest of the world's central banks.

That near–$17 trillion pile of negative-yielding global debt? It’s a cash cow for some bond investors - MarketWatch

Take a minute to read this article,perhaps this will help you understand the problem.
Click to expand...
Why not? The Fed's mandate is to the American economy, not to play "follow the leader".
 
Jetboogieman said:
If that’s the case he shouldn’t be cutting interest rates by any amount, but they are.

Now there is some weird **** going on between Trump and the Fed that should be uncomfortable for those bystanders that understand why the Fed exists in the first place and Trumps open hostility and even priming the White House counsel to see whether it’s possible for him to fire the head of the Fed, Trumps continued insistence that the Fed cut interest rates despite a supposedly healthy economy is going to further have this problem of the market being drunk on cheap credit.

In a situation in which a recession could happen despite what Powell is saying here, the tools the Fed and politicians have at their disposal to deal with it could be greatly diminished due to keeping interest rates at historic lows, taxes and government revenues already being cut during a supposed time of prosperity and a trade war to boot, could have disastrous consequences for the economy.

We’ll see what happens but the idea this can just go on forever is a pipe dream, sooner or later it’s going to come crashing down as it always does, usually presidents get too much credit and too much blame for good and bad economies, but trade wars and undermining the independence of The Fed is a sure fire way to take some heat in my mind.

But no, maybe I’m just a Trump hater or something.
Click to expand...
Historically we've seen governments with politically controlled economies fail. I'm not sure why anyone should believe ours would be any different!
 
Common Sense 1 said:
Great news for our country!! :mrgreen:

Fed's Powell says he doesn't foresee a US recession

Fed'''s Powell says he doesn'''t foresee a US recession | Fox Business

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he does not foresee the U.S. sliding into a recession soon, despite a slowdown in global growth and uncertainties surrounding the U.S.-China trade war.

"I wouldn't see the recession as the most likely outcome in the U.S.," he said during a question-and-answer session in Zurich, Switzerland on Friday.

Powell said that data shows the U.S. economy will continue to expand at a moderate pace, with a strong labor market and inflation hovering around the Fed's 2 percent target.
Click to expand...

I sure hope he's right. But do you really think he would ever say otherwise?
 
I find a curious disjunction in President of the United States of America Donald Trump asking the Fed to reduce interest rates while that paragon of political acumen and professor of conservative studies, Mr. Rush Limbough, tells us that the latest figures on the economy are the best thing that's happened since the invention of toilet tissue.

"'Curiouser and curiouser,' cried Alice." Lewis Carroll, Alice's Adventures in Wonderland.
 
Chomsky said:
Why not? The Fed's mandate is to the American economy, not to play "follow the leader".
Click to expand...

Because the Fed does not control longer term rates and because the spread between U.S. rates can only stretch so far before people buy our bonds and sell other bonds,make money on the spread offset by hedging the currencies.

Thus since the recession central banks have largely synchronized policy. The Fed decided in 2017 to go it alone and raise aggressively. It is not surprising that the ex-president of the New York Fed recently published an op-ed calling for the Fed to put in place policies to insure Trump is not re-elected. So when people talk about an independent Fed I just shake my head and wonder about the naivety or just don't understand that these are political appointees as well.

As to their mandate one is a stable currency which surely relates to the points I have raised.
 
dcsports said:
Those are different questions. It is possible to have a stable market with moderate growth, with softness due to international uncertainty, and still not expect a recession.

The deficit/debt is another issue entirely. We would be in a much better position there if congress would reign in spending.
Click to expand...

And raise taxes.. well make people actually pay taxes by getting rid of all the stupid deductions. And raise taxes on the wealthy. But yes, cutting spending in military and nationalising the healthcare industry or putting price controls in would be a good start.
 
washunut said:
Then please explain why the numbers below make sense:
Denmark Interest Rate | 2019 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast | News
Denmark GDP Annual Growth Rate | 2019 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

Don't we agree we live in a global economy?
Click to expand...

Yep, but nothing makes sense in the traditional economic theory anymore and has not since the 2000s. Our budget is in a surplus or at least on average balancing, and we have growth, lowish unemployment and yet our interest rates are wacky.. however we dont really get to set our interest rates freely and never have, because we are a small nation that has to follow what Germany does, aka the EU. So if the EU has low interest rates, then we need them too.
 
Common Sense 1 said:
Great news for our country!! :mrgreen:

Fed's Powell says he doesn't foresee a US recession

Fed'''s Powell says he doesn'''t foresee a US recession | Fox Business

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he does not foresee the U.S. sliding into a recession soon, despite a slowdown in global growth and uncertainties surrounding the U.S.-China trade war.

"I wouldn't see the recession as the most likely outcome in the U.S.," he said during a question-and-answer session in Zurich, Switzerland on Friday.

Powell said that data shows the U.S. economy will continue to expand at a moderate pace, with a strong labor market and inflation hovering around the Fed's 2 percent target.
Click to expand...

"I wouldn't see the recession as the most likely outcome in the U.S.," is what is known in the trade as "weasel wording" and does NOT mean "There is no possibility that the US will have a recession soon.".

PS - One of the LAST things that I would expect the ANYONE from the Fed to say is anything that could be interpreted as "There is almost definitely going to be a recession - we just don't know how bad it is going to be." because to say that would be almost certain to trigger one.

PPS - If "There is going to be a recession." is 49.99999% likely to be true and "There is not going to be a recession." is 50.00001% likely to be true, then it would be 100% true to say "I wouldn't see the recession as the most likely outcome in the U.S.". - wouldn't it?
 
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