• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Kudlow says he doesn’t see a recession on the horizon, defends Trump’s trade war

QUOTE=JasperL;1070501436]First of all, your original comment is the Fed could solve the inverted yield curve. True and irrelevant, which is why you've abandoned that point, presumably.

What does your comment above have to do with what the bond market is saying about the state of the economy with an inverted yield curve? The Fed isn't who's talking with the inverted curve - that's the bond market talking. Sure, the Fed impacts all that but the reason the markets and pundits and everyone else LISTENS to the message sent by the inverted yield curve is that's it's an historically accurate predictor of recessions. All you're doing is without evidence or argument saying we (the left, presumably) should ignore it THIS TIME. Why?



OK, so if the markets react then it's fine but if the Democrats react it's illegitimate because......why? Why shouldn't Democrats point out that we're running $trillion deficits thanks to unfunded tax cuts and the BOND MARKET is still predicting recession. We were supposed to get 3-4% GDP growth as far as the eye can see so that the energized economy paid for those tax cuts with added growth, and that's not happened. How is it illegitimate to point out the tax cuts didn't work, and the trade wars might be slowing economic growth? Seems fair game to me.



LOL, it's just bad form for Democrats to point that out. We understand.[/QUOTE]

I've abandoned nothing. You've satisfied me that you have no idea of the significance of the yield inversion in this instance, or even if it's significant at all. You could look at the Fed policy driving it, but that wouldn't suit your pleading.

You could look at the global economy. The EU's one time shot in the arm experiment with negative interest rates is now a five year deal, with no end in sight. It has devalued their currency, which is keeping some economic elements afloat. Sooner or later they'll have to come up for air. China's growth rate is at a 27 year low.

And you and the rest of the left are crying that a 2/100's of a percent of inversion on short term treasury bonds is momentous. Even Yellen doesn't give it much credence at this point.

So when you have something significant to point to, let me know. This isn't it.
 
humbolt said:
Can it, Vern. If you were tasked with drawing a circle, you'd draw a football every time.
Click to expand...

oh humbolt, this post is as funny as it is sad. I called you out for a typical dishonest and hypocritical post and all you can do is whine about some imaginary task I failed to accomplish. Here's a real task for you: why don't you respond in an honest and intelligent manner. don't worry, nobody expects you to complete this task.
 
Vern said:
oh humbolt, this post is as funny as it is sad. I called you out for a typical dishonest and hypocritical post and all you can do is whine about some imaginary task I failed to accomplish. Here's a real task for you: why don't you respond in an honest and intelligent manner. don't worry, nobody expects you to complete this task.
Click to expand...

Vern, you're a hoot, as always. Where you been? You on work release?
 
humbolt said:
Vern, you're a hoot, as always. Where you been? You on work release?
Click to expand...

Well the good news is your latest cowardly and dishonest dodge is a major improvement over your first one. But its still a cowardly and dishonest dodge (you failed in your task to respond in an honest and intelligent fashion). Anyhoo, we were discussing your belief that actual economists warning of a possible recession is “political fueled economic hysteria” and that it is somehow an insult to listen to actual economists warning of a possible recession.

So if actual economists pointing to actual data warning of a recession is “political fueled economic hysteria”, what do you call republicans and pundits screaming (with conservatives running around foaming at the mouth) that "the stimulus will cause hyperinflation, dollar collapse, market to zero" ,"the auto bailout is an illegal bailout of unions , screwing over the shareholders and bondholders"?

Oh and we were also discussing how I get to add your “issues” to the ever growing list of obedient conservative flip flops. But there is really nothing for you to add to that conversation so just try to focus on the question above.
 
MTAtech said:
Let me understand your reasoning, such as it is: The Dems won the House in 2018 and took power in 2019. The Reps still have the WH and the Senate. No Democratic initiatives were able to get past the Senate or WH.

So, according to you, the mere fact that the Dems won the House -- with no subsequent policies, is enough to lower the economy. It just couldn't possibly be that the Republican policies, namely the tax-cuts and regulation cuts, were duds that had no positive effect on the economy -- and the Trump tariffs are a drag on the economy -- nah.
Click to expand...

2010yr.jpg
 
Re: Kudlow says he doesn’t see a recession on the horizon, defends Trump’s trade war

TU Curmudgeon said:
Please be ready for the rhetoric shift.


"I'm only doing this for your own good." springs instantly to mind as does


"I never said that there would be any SHORT-TERM adverse effects on the US economy. I only said that what I was doing was going to be beneficial to the American economy and I, being the greatest President in the history of the United States of America (and the one who was elected by the greatest landslide in history {and whose inauguration day crowd was the biggest in the history of the United States of America <and who has been married to more really sexy women than any President in the history of the United States of America - and who increased his personal wealth while in office by more than any other President in the history of the United States of America ->}]) was taking the LONG-TERM view of which I have perfect and inerrant knowledge. Trust me, I know what I'm doing."​
Click to expand...

I for one am ready for the shift. It will go from we never talked about how good the economy was doing. The evil liberals are the cause of this! None of us ever said all that stuff we said.

It'll be sadness on top of sadness.
 
Vern said:
Well the good news is your latest cowardly and dishonest dodge is a major improvement over your first one. But its still a cowardly and dishonest dodge (you failed in your task to respond in an honest and intelligent fashion). Anyhoo, we were discussing your belief that actual economists warning of a possible recession is “political fueled economic hysteria” and that it is somehow an insult to listen to actual economists warning of a possible recession.

So if actual economists pointing to actual data warning of a recession is “political fueled economic hysteria”, what do you call republicans and pundits screaming (with conservatives running around foaming at the mouth) that "the stimulus will cause hyperinflation, dollar collapse, market to zero" ,"the auto bailout is an illegal bailout of unions , screwing over the shareholders and bondholders"?

Oh and we were also discussing how I get to add your “issues” to the ever growing list of obedient conservative flip flops. But there is really nothing for you to add to that conversation so just try to focus on the question above.
Click to expand...

As it stands, there is no recession, and no stimulus. The Fed is talking sometime today. I'll wait and see what they have to say. Hopefully we won't drift into the negative interest rates and currency devaluation much of the rest of the world has.

You have a good day, Vern
 
humbolt said:
As it stands, there is no recession, and no stimulus. The Fed is talking sometime today. I'll wait and see what they have to say. Hopefully we won't drift into the negative interest rates and currency devaluation much of the rest of the world has.

You have a good day, Vern
Click to expand...

Humbolt, thank you for finally not posting your usual deflections. The problem with your latest post is that no one is saying there is a recession. Economists are pointing to warning signs that a recession could happen. So we weren’t discussing if we were in a recession. We were discussing you calling legitimate concerns about a possible recession “political fueled economic hysteria”. What drives you to post that?

Anyhoo, Trump’s tax cut is a stimulus. Not the best stimulus but still a stimulus. And if you are actually concerned about negative interest rates and currency devaluation, why are you not concerned about trump and republicans ballooning the deficit. Forget that they promised to balance it. From an economic standpoint, ballooning the deficit will hinder our ability to deal with a recession if it happens. Seems like that would increase the chances of exactly what you don’t want.

And fyi, if a recession hits, democrats wont be demanding republicans balance the budget.
 
Vern said:
Humbolt, thank you for finally not posting your usual deflections. The problem with your latest post is that no one is saying there is a recession. Economists are pointing to warning signs that a recession could happen. So we weren’t discussing if we were in a recession. We were discussing you calling legitimate concerns about a possible recession “political fueled economic hysteria”. What drives you to post that?

Anyhoo, Trump’s tax cut is a stimulus. Not the best stimulus but still a stimulus. And if you are actually concerned about negative interest rates and currency devaluation, why are you not concerned about trump and republicans ballooning the deficit. Forget that they promised to balance it. From an economic standpoint, ballooning the deficit will hinder our ability to deal with a recession if it happens. Seems like that would increase the chances of exactly what you don’t want.

And fyi, if a recession hits, democrats wont be demanding republicans balance the budget.
Click to expand...

The immediate response of many on the left to this inversion is in fact fueled by an unhealthy desire. If you'll remember, and as I've previously pointed out, the left was forecasting a Trump induced recession before he took office. See Krugman, and others. That's not to say there shouldn't be some concern now. It is saying that concern is somewhat over-blown.

The next couple of quarters will likely tell the tale.

If I were to dwell on what is promised by either party compared that what is actually delivered, I'd be pissed all the time. That's something I don't permit myself. I have no influence over what happens on the national level. I stick to that over which I do have some influence. I'm much happier blaming myself - I can at least cortect that.
 
Last edited:
humbolt said:
Trump will have to respond.
Click to expand...

Indeed he will. The likely response is going to be to blame everything on someone else (starting with Ms. Obama-Clinton).

humbolt said:
That's not likely before early fall.
Click to expand...

Oh come on now, blaming everything on someone else is ALWAYS in season.

humbolt said:
There's nothing pressing at the moment, except for the rhetoric coming from the usual sources.
Click to expand...

That would be BOTH the "Republican" (whatever that means) "usual sources" and the "Democrat" (whatever that means) "usual sources", wouldn't it?
 
Vern said:
oh humbolt, this post is as funny as it is sad. I called you out for a typical dishonest and hypocritical post and all you can do is whine about some imaginary task I failed to accomplish. Here's a real task for you: why don't you respond in an honest and intelligent manner. don't worry, nobody expects you to complete this task.
Click to expand...

He also doesn't realize that, from some perspectives (allowing for lumps caused by seams) it IS perfectly possible (and correct) to draw football as being circular.
 
Re: Kudlow says he doesn’t see a recession on the horizon, defends Trump’s trade war

Pound4abrown said:
I for one am ready for the shift. It will go from we never talked about how good the economy was doing. The evil liberals are the cause of this! None of us ever said all that stuff we said.

It'll be sadness on top of sadness.
Click to expand...


"Winston Smith works as a clerk in the Records Department of the Ministry of Truth, where his job is to rewrite historical documents so they match the constantly changing current party line. This involves revising newspaper articles and doctoring photographs—mostly to remove "unpersons", people who have fallen afoul of the party. ..."
[SOURCE]
​

sort of rings a bell, doesn't it?
 
humbolt said:
As it stands, there is no recession, and no stimulus. The Fed is talking sometime today. I'll wait and see what they have to say. Hopefully we won't drift into the negative interest rates and currency devaluation much of the rest of the world has.

You have a good day, Vern
Click to expand...

According to Trading Economics latest posting, I must conclude that you believe that "the rest of the world" consists of Japan, Sweden, Denmark, and Switzerland (none of which really qualify as "S***hole countries").
 
MTAtech said:
[h=1]Kudlow says he doesn’t see a recession on the horizon, defends Trump’s trade war[/h]

You know what worries me? This is what Kudlow said as the Great Recession was becoming visible:

December 2007: ‘The pessimistas were wrong. It’s not going to happen… The Bush boom is alive and well. It’s finishing up its sixth consecutive year with more to come.’ --- Larry Kudlow

On tariffs, Kudlow defends his boss, whose tariffs are a $1,000 a year tax on American families that is also distorting farming and manufacturing.
Click to expand...


Well, Kudlow is an obvious partisan hack who is very comfortable betraying his own education and profession. His loyalty is not towards logic and reason, but to person and Party, rather than country. These Republican "booms" are historical.

- There was Reaganomics (in which Bush Sr. had to raise taxes and Clinton was stuck dealing with).

- And there was Bush Jr.'s "boom" (in which Obama had to inherit the worst Recession in our history).

The "boom" implies a short burst of quick cash for those investors in the higher brackets. Constant tax-cuts, increased borrowing to cover increased spending, and deregulating of banks all go towards creating unnatural and very unnecessary "booms" that are about the present, with little to no regard to the future consequence. But people have to eventually pay for the consequences. It's funny because big business is always talking about free markets and capitalism, yet consistently looks for government subsidies, tax-cuts, and politically sponsored "booms." And thanks to Trump's 2017 permanent cuts to the wealthy, the Middle Class will be bearing the burden alone this time.

The fact that our country is full of these types of political professionals is what concerns me. The voting plebeians, or idiots, lack the intelligence to see through the BS. One does not have to be educated in economics to understand basic common sense.
 
Last edited:
MTAtech said:
[h=1]Kudlow says he doesn’t see a recession on the horizon, defends Trump’s trade war[/h]

You know what worries me? This is what Kudlow said as the Great Recession was becoming visible:

December 2007: ‘The pessimistas were wrong. It’s not going to happen… The Bush boom is alive and well. It’s finishing up its sixth consecutive year with more to come.’ --- Larry Kudlow

On tariffs, Kudlow defends his boss, whose tariffs are a $1,000 a year tax on American families that is also distorting farming and manufacturing.
Click to expand...

Yeah...right.
 
[
QUOTE=TU Curmudgeon;1070513760]Indeed he will. The likely response is going to be to blame everything on someone else (starting with Ms. Obama-Clinton).
Click to expand...

Yes, Trump will respond. I believe he and his Fed chairman are at odds, and have been for a year or so. I'm not sure where the rest up there came from, but if you believe it, more power to ya.


Oh come on now, blaming everything on someone else is ALWAYS in season.
Click to expand...

Of course. I blame you for weeds. Realistically, the Fed will likely reduce interest rates another 1/4 point in September. Congress will be back in session, and the end of the FFY will be upon us. That means more targets.



That would be BOTH the "Republican" (whatever that means) "usual sources" and the "Democrat" (whatever that means) "usual sources", wouldn't it?
Click to expand...

That, and all the talking heads, who all offer responsible, level-headed, and unbiased opinions.
 
MSgt said:
Well, Kudlow is an obvious partisan hack who is very comfortable betraying his own education and profession. His loyalty is not towards logic and reason, but to person and Party, rather than country. These Republican "booms" are historical.

- There was Reaganomics (in which Bush Sr. had to raise taxes and Clinton was stuck dealing with).

- And there was Bush Jr.'s "boom" (in which Obama had to inherit the worst Recession in our history).

The "boom" implies a short burst of quick cash for those investors in the higher brackets. Constant tax-cuts, increased borrowing to cover increased spending, and deregulating of banks all go towards creating unnatural and very unnecessary "booms" that are about the present, with little to no regard to the future consequence. But people have to eventually pay for the consequences. It's funny because big business is always talking about free markets and capitalism, yet consistently looks for government subsidies, tax-cuts, and politically sponsored "booms." And thanks to Trump's 2017 permanent cuts to the wealthy, the Middle Class will be bearing the burden alone this time.

The fact that our country is full of these types of political professionals is what concerns me. The voting plebeians, or idiots, lack the intelligence to see through the BS. One does not have to be educated in economics to understand basic common sense.
Click to expand...

It isn't that the American people "lack the intelligence" but rather that they have been persuaded (through the efforts of BOTH "The MORE Reactionary Wing of the American Oligarchic Capitalist Party" AND "The LESS Reactionary Wing of the American Oligarchic Capitalist Party") that they are not really supposed to think for themselves because the surrogates for the leaderships of BOTH "The MORE Reactionary Wing of the American Oligarchic Capitalist Party" AND "The LESS Reactionary Wing of the American Oligarchic Capitalist Party" will tell them what to think.

Think of the majority of the members of the American voting population as akin to someone who never gets out of their chair. The person who never gets out of their chair CAN walk, but they simply DO NOT walk. The majority of the members of the American voting population CAN think and reason for themselves, but they simply ...
 
humbolt said:
I have no idea what you must conclude. Not my job. The global economy is slowing.
Click to expand...

Indeed. And, like the driver who took their foot off the gas pedal and then complained that their car was slowing down, neither you, Mr. Trump, nor anyone else that you know speaks nothing but the 100% truth has any idea why it is slowing.
 
humbolt said:
The immediate response of many on the left to this inversion is in fact fueled by an unhealthy desire. If you'll remember, and as I've previously pointed out, the left was forecasting a Trump induced recession before he took office. See Krugman, and others. That's not to say there shouldn't be some concern now. It is saying that concern is somewhat over-blown.
Click to expand...

See Humolt, you can claim "overblown" if you want. and maybe you should have. But thats just you finally walking back your ridiculous and hypocritical claim of “political fueled economic hysteria”. So I just cant trust your opinion because you're not admitting that “political fueled economic hysteria" was ridiculous and hypocritical.

And you're still being dishonest. "the left" was not forecasting a trump recession. You're equating "Krugman" with the left. No Humbolt, you don't get to compare Krugman as the equal but opposite of the non stop chorus from the right that " that "the stimulus will cause hyperinflation, dollar collapse, market to zero" ,"the auto bailout is an illegal bailout of unions , screwing over the shareholders and bondholders". And thats just two examples of official conservative narratives that were “political fueled economic hysteria" And they were lies. there are simply no equal but opposite "narratives" from the left.

If I were to dwell on what is promised by either party compared that what is actually delivered, I'd be pissed all the time. That's something I don't permit myself. I have no influence over what happens on the national level. I stick to that over which I do have some influence. I'm much happier blaming myself - I can at least cortect that.
Click to expand...
Humbolt, I said "Forget that they promised to balance it." See how you want to post "both sides" about that instead of addressing the economic impact of Trump and republicans ballooning the deficit again. That's just you avoiding the flaming lying hypocrisy from republicans concerning deficits. But lets deal with your latest false statement. For 8 years your conservative masters ranted about deficits and you and yours obediently foamed at the mouth about them. So trump claiming he'd balance budget and then immediately ballooning the deficit isn't just a "golly gee, political promises, whatcha gonna do" thing. Its a violation of the most important conservative issue in 2016. Its right up there with "repealing Obamacare" and "putting Hillary in jail". Those are literally the three most important issues to conservatives in 2016. So instead of admitting they played all of you for fools and holding them accountalble, we get the "golly gee both sides' post. There simply is no equivalent to the lies from the right.
 
TU Curmudgeon said:
Indeed. And, like the driver who took their foot off the gas pedal and then complained that their car was slowing down, neither you, Mr. Trump, nor anyone else that you know speaks nothing but the 100% truth has any idea why it is slowing.
Click to expand...

Uh huh. You're dazzling me.
 
Vern said:
See Humolt, you can claim "overblown" if you want. and maybe you should have. But thats just you finally walking back your ridiculous and hypocritical claim of “political fueled economic hysteria”. So I just cant trust your opinion because you're not admitting that “political fueled economic hysteria" was ridiculous and hypocritical.

And you're still being dishonest. "the left" was not forecasting a trump recession. You're equating "Krugman" with the left. No Humbolt, you don't get to compare Krugman as the equal but opposite of the non stop chorus from the right that " that "the stimulus will cause hyperinflation, dollar collapse, market to zero" ,"the auto bailout is an illegal bailout of unions , screwing over the shareholders and bondholders". And thats just two examples of official conservative narratives that were “political fueled economic hysteria" And they were lies. there are simply no equal but opposite "narratives" from the left.


Humbolt, I said "Forget that they promised to balance it." See how you want to post "both sides" about that instead of addressing the economic impact of Trump and republicans ballooning the deficit again. That's just you avoiding the flaming lying hypocrisy from republicans concerning deficits. But lets deal with your latest false statement. For 8 years your conservative masters ranted about deficits and you and yours obediently foamed at the mouth about them. So trump claiming he'd balance budget and then immediately ballooning the deficit isn't just a "golly gee, political promises, whatcha gonna do" thing. Its a violation of the most important conservative issue in 2016. Its right up there with "repealing Obamacare" and "putting Hillary in jail". Those are literally the three most important issues to conservatives in 2016. So instead of admitting they played all of you for fools and holding them accountalble, we get the "golly gee both sides' post. There simply is no equivalent to the lies from the right.
Click to expand...

You have a lot to say, Vern. What initially prompted your worry about about a recession?
 
humbolt said:
You have a lot to say, Vern. What initially prompted your worry about about a recession?
Click to expand...

Since EVERY "boom" (regardless of size) is INEVITABLY followed by a "bust" (of some size or another), it - <SARC>obviously</SARC> - makes absolutely no sense whatsoever to "worry about a recession" when things are improving.

Right?

Well, isn't that what you are trying to tell everyone?
 
humbolt said:
You have a lot to say, Vern. What initially prompted your worry about about a recession?
Click to expand...

Geez humbolt, you deflect from your own deflections. You deflected from your hypocritical and lying narrative of “partisan fueled economic hysteria” to “negative interest rates and debasement” (after trying and failing to make the discussion about me). I point out that trump ballooning the deficit only increases the likelihood of that happening. You deflect to “political promises”. I point out the falseness of your “both sides” narrative and magic presto you want to talk about my concerns. You’re having a problem with focus because like all conservatives, everything you believe (or just obediently post) cant withstand the slightest scrutiny. If you have to cut and run from everything you post, why are you at a debate forum?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom