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Dow plunges 600 points after bond market flashes a recession warning, Citigroup tanks 5%

HumblePi said:
Trying to make money in a declining market by buying stock at bargain prices is a huge risk. And, unless you have a whole lot of money to invest in something like the tech sector, you'd better be prepared to sit on that stagnant stock for a long time. Ordinary Americans don't have the ability to do that. Sure, there's some bargains out there right now, but investors aren't confident enough to buy because by Friday they might be seeing an even greater loss. Getting into the stock market today as a small investor is a real gamble that not many can afford.
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I short sell in plunging markets, more to the point the derivatives markets ala ETFs, and futures contracts, and in the associated options markets, short term either intraday, or a couple of day hold times. I can be in and out of a play in less than 30 seconds sometimes. Did that a couple of times today. Boom boom, money credited to the account. I live for these days, plenty of money to be made. Most of the time I position trade and do options plays when the market is channeling, (calm relatively speaking). When it get volatile I start making larger profits. Four or five days similar to this is were I make 50+% of my trading profits.
 
Lutherf said:
FFS, these wild swings are due primarily to algorithms used by institutional traders doing their thing. JPM and Barclays make a few changes then everyone else follows suit and the calculations kick in and a ton of stuff gets sold. Two days later, when another set of algorithms says "we're good" for the next few days everything goes back up. It's only become worse since the US Congress decided they needed to save everyone from themselves after the "too big to fail" crisis.
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Today's stock market tumble was not caused by algorithms. A trader might use algorithmic trading to execute orders rapidly when a certain stock reaches or falls below a specific price. The algorithm might dictate how many shares to buy or sell based on such conditions. But algorithms are not moving the market today. The reason the market is bleeding today is because the ten year yield curve fell below the 2 year curve earlier this morning. This is a key recession indicator and this has signaled a recession the last three times it has happened. Why does it have so many people so worried? The yield curve inversion is an effect, not a cause, it's weak global economic data. Sectors that would respond to downward yield curve that are the weakest like retail, energy, semi-conductors and industrials. Those are down about anywhere between 2.5% - 4%. Those others sectors that are already deep into correction territory, more than 20% down, like metals and mining, pharmaceuticals, banks and energy are dipping even lower. The S&P index is down more than 5% from the time that Trump added more China tariffs. the S&P 500 index is the most popular measure used by financial media and professionals. No algorithms.
 
vegas giants said:
False. Prove it. If you kept your money in the market both of those times with dividends reinvested you made money
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Now you are moving the goal post. Dividend reinvestment does not overcome loss in the equity value. During the 1970s, inflation was far higher than the low dividend yields.
 
vegas giants said:
He is factually incorrect and does not account for ten years of dividend reinvesting.
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993bb0d7da.png


You are just wrong
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I'm always amused when people speak from a severe knowledge deficiency. Play around with the dates. Notice what happens when we ignore inflation.

:lol:

I promise you this... you'll learn something from our exchange.
 
iguanaman said:
I was merely replying to a poster who made that claim. Ask him. Try and keep up.
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OIC, you can't explain your dumb conclusion, so you deflect.

:2razz:
 
HumblePi said:
Today's stock market tumble was not caused by algorithms. A trader might use algorithmic trading to execute orders rapidly when a certain stock reaches or falls below a specific price. The algorithm might dictate how many shares to buy or sell based on such conditions. But algorithms are not moving the market today. The reason the market is bleeding today is because the ten year yield curve fell below the 2 year curve earlier this morning. This is a key recession indicator and this has signaled a recession the last three times it has happened. Why does it have so many people so worried? The yield curve inversion is an effect, not a cause, it's weak global economic data. Sectors that would respond to downward yield curve that are the weakest like retail, energy, semi-conductors and industrials. Those are down about anywhere between 2.5% - 4%. Those others sectors that are already deep into correction territory, more than 20% down, like metals and mining, pharmaceuticals, banks and energy are dipping even lower. The S&P index is down more than 5% from the time that Trump added more China tariffs. the S&P 500 index is the most popular measure used by financial media and professionals. No algorithms.
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EF Hutton, is that you?
 
Kushinator said:
993bb0d7da.png




I'm always amused when people speak from a severe knowledge deficiency. Play around with the dates. Notice what happens when we ignore inflation.

:lol:

I promise you this... you'll learn something from our exchange.
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The s and p 500 is not the total stock market. Did you not know that? Lol
 
MTAtech said:
Now you are moving the goal post. Dividend reinvestment does not overcome loss in the equity value. During the 1970s, inflation was far higher than the low dividend yields.
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Then prove it based on total stock market
 
trixare4kids said:
My investments tripled under this president.
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Nobody cares about what some rando internet person claims about their investment success.

Yellen released a statement today where she thinks the US economy is strong enough to fend off a recession.
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You don't even bother to link?

When asked if the United States is headed into a recession, Yellen said “I think the answer is most likely no. I think the U.S. economy has enough strength to avoid that, but the odds have clearly risen and they’re higher than I’m frankly comfortable with,” she said.
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Felis Leo said:
That is a total non-sequitur as to whether the average American benefits from stock. As I said, anyone who has a 401(k) or a private or public Pension benefits from stocks or bonds. Stocks are not merely for the wealthy. As to your question, I am not a Democrat, so I cannot speak to what makes Democrats viscerally happy. I am happy when poor people are able to work, save and invest to the point that they are able to enter the comfortable middle class. I am happy when those within the middle class are able to work, save and invest the point they possess comfortable wealth. I am not happy when any given group of people loses their investments, whether they are rich or poor. I cannot speak for anyone else on the matter though.
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I do feel badly for workers who are not able to trade and/or manage their own investments. American workers who leave these decisions to their employer's "gurus", have lost a lot of wealth today. Public union employees especially.
 
vegas giants said:
The s and p 500 is not the total stock market. Did you not know that? Lol
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Ahh, now the old goalpost shift.

The S&P 500 is a very broad index. You're more than welcome to provide evidence that supports your position. I don't think you will, because, as stated, you're operating from a severe knowledge deficiency.
 
vegas giants said:
Not if you have a 10 year time horizon. Every person who has ever invested in the stock market for ten years has always made money.
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But they're sort of at the mercy of large investors with millions to spend on stock. Remember Rep. Chris Collins who was seen on video at the White House picnic last year? Federal investigators claim Collins was making a call to his son to tell him to sell stock in Australian biotech company Innate. The House Ethics Committee released a report on the matter from the independent Office of Congressional Ethics, which said, "there is a substantial reason to believe that Representative Collins shared material nonpublic information in the purchase of Innate stock, in violation of House rules, standards of conduct, and federal law." Collins was indicted on insider trading charges, turned himself into the FBI. Despite his insider trading in full view of everyone at the White House and his indictment, Chris Collins was re-elected last Nov and won't stand trial until 2020.

My point is that someone of great power or wealth can easily manipulate the stock market. Sure, it's illegal but when was the last time anyone super wealthy cared about illegalities?
 
Kushinator said:
Nobody cares about what some rando internet person claims about their investment success.



You don't even bother to link?
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Former chair of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen told FOX Business she doesn’t think the U.S. economy is headed toward a recession after the bond market sounded an economic alarm bell.

“I think the answer is most likely no,” Yellen said exclusively on “WSJ ” Wednesday. “I think the U.S. economy has enough strength to avoid that.

What did I get wrong?
Sure, we should be concerned but what I wrote is what she literally opined.

You want to bark at someone? go bite the mailman.
 
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Kushinator said:
Ahh, now the old goalpost shift.

The S&P 500 is a very broad index. You're more than welcome to provide evidence that supports your position. I don't think you will, because, as stated, you're operating from a severe knowledge deficiency.
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Ahhh the old insult when you lost the argument.


I accept your concession
 
HumblePi said:
But they're sort of at the mercy of large investors with millions to spend on stock. Remember Rep. Chris Collins who was seen on video at the White House picnic last year? Federal investigators claim Collins was making a call to his son to tell him to sell stock in Australian biotech company Innate. The House Ethics Committee released a report on the matter from the independent Office of Congressional Ethics, which said, "there is a substantial reason to believe that Representative Collins shared material nonpublic information in the purchase of Innate stock, in violation of House rules, standards of conduct, and federal law." Collins was indicted on insider trading charges, turned himself into the FBI. Despite his insider trading in full view of everyone at the White House and his indictment, Chris Collins was re-elected last Nov and won't stand trial until 2020.

My point is that someone of great power or wealth can easily manipulate the stock market. Sure, it's illegal but when was the last time anyone super wealthy cared about illegalities?
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Clearly that is true and your point is well taken. But we can all make money in the stock market
 
trixare4kids said:
Former chair of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen told FOX Business she doesn’t think the U.S. economy is headed toward a recession after the bond market sounded an economic alarm bell.

“I think the answer is most likely no,” Yellen said exclusively on “WSJ ” Wednesday. “I think the U.S. economy has enough strength to avoid that.

What did I get wrong?
Sure, we should be concerned but what I wrote is what she literally opined.

You want to bark at someone? go bite the mailman.
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This was the exact quote:
I think the answer is most likely no. I think the U.S. economy has enough strength to avoid that, but the odds have clearly risen and they’re higher than I’m frankly comfortable with,” she said.
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Trying to spin this as some silver lining isn't a good strategy. Current U.S. economic growth is entirely attributable to deficit spending. You remove the deficit, and the economy goes to hell in a hand-basket. The problem is, there isn't much room for future fiscal policy needs. Do you expect the U.S. to run $2 trillion deficits? That's the likely outcome of an economic downturn.
 
vegas giants said:
Ahhh the old insult when you lost the argument.
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I didn't lose the argument. I showed you that if you invested $1000 in the S&P 500 in July of 1999, you'd have lost $470 by July of 2009, even with dividend reinvestment. Your response was par for the uninformed.

I accept your concession
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I've presented my data. The concession has been yours from the start.
 
HumblePi said:
Today's stock market tumble was not caused by algorithms. A trader might use algorithmic trading to execute orders rapidly when a certain stock reaches or falls below a specific price. The algorithm might dictate how many shares to buy or sell based on such conditions. But algorithms are not moving the market today. The reason the market is bleeding today is because the ten year yield curve fell below the 2 year curve earlier this morning. This is a key recession indicator and this has signaled a recession the last three times it has happened. Why does it have so many people so worried? The yield curve inversion is an effect, not a cause, it's weak global economic data. Sectors that would respond to downward yield curve that are the weakest like retail, energy, semi-conductors and industrials. Those are down about anywhere between 2.5% - 4%. Those others sectors that are already deep into correction territory, more than 20% down, like metals and mining, pharmaceuticals, banks and energy are dipping even lower. The S&P index is down more than 5% from the time that Trump added more China tariffs. the S&P 500 index is the most popular measure used by financial media and professionals. No algorithms.
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OK. So let's say that on Thursday China pulls troops back from Hong Kong and indicates that it will buy US pork, work with the US on combating intellectual property theft and pay for a really cool fountain at Mar-a-Lago. Simultaneously, the Fed leaks that it will cut rates by 25 BP next time around. Do we see the DOW go back up?

Let's say that a year from now Elizabeth Warren is polling 85 points higher than Trump. Do we see the yield curves normalize?
 
Trump as a bloviating conman before he became president would say, "Bring it on, I make my best profits out of the ruins of other people's life savings." Because that's the kind of upfront piggishness he strutted about displaying, the kind of pig Republicans chose as their leader.

Trump as a bloviating conman president has to be a bit worried today. Yesterday he looked at the pain people were going to be feeling during the Christmas shopping season right before the primaries start, and he backed off the latest round of his trade war. Which showed China how much pain Trump is willing to take before an election.

Now more pain, and Trump has left himself with few options to try to reinflate the market ... as we near primary season.
 
Lutherf said:
OK. So let's say that on Thursday China pulls troops back from Hong Kong and indicates that it will buy US pork, work with the US on combating intellectual property theft and pay for a really cool fountain at Mar-a-Lago. Simultaneously, the Fed leaks that it will cut rates by 25 BP next time around. Do we see the DOW go back up?

Let's say that a year from now Elizabeth Warren is polling 85 points higher than Trump. Do we see the yield curves normalize?
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You will get a bounce from that. But the economy is slowing and none of that can stop it. The bear market is long overdue and is coming
 
Kushinator said:
I didn't lose the argument. I showed you that if you invested $1000 in the S&P 500 in July of 1999, you'd have lost $470 by July of 2009, even with dividend reinvestment. Your response was par for the uninformed.



I've presented my data. The concession has been yours from the start.
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Well I never mentioned 500 stocks. That was all you. Lol
 
vegas giants said:
You will get a bounce from that. But the economy is slowing and none of that can stop it. The bear market is long overdue and is coming
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Can you explain WHY the economy is slowing?
 
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