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Thread: Dow plunges 600 points after bond market flashes a recession warning, Citigroup tanks 5%

  1. #31
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    Re: Dow plunges 600 points after bond market flashes a recession warning, Citigroup tanks 5%

    Quote Originally Posted by upsideguy View Post
    Absolutely wrong! Stocks are up only 29% in the Trump presidency (in a good economy); they were up 46% during the similar period of the Obama presidency (while digging out of a recession). Stocks rose 181% during Obama's tenure.

    Stocks are up only 29% during Trump's presidency - CNN
    Stock Market Performance by President | MacroTrends

    In fact, stock market performance under Trump lags behind Reagan, Clinton and Obama, yet Trump has known nothing but a strong economy during his tenure. Reagan and Clinton each had some recession during their presidency.

    Virtually all of the stock market gains occurring in the Trump presidency happened in his first year in office, when it was largely Obama momentum. Since his first year, stocks are actually down (the market was a 26,025 on 1/20/18). So, take away the first year of the Trump presidency and he has actually been very bad for your portfolios.

    Here’s President Trump’s stock-market scorecard after 2 years in office - MarketWatch

    We really need to start stamping out these myths about Trump.
    If you are saying Obama had it easy, congratulations. Correct answer.

    Somehow, that does not fit with the rest of your post. There is a lot of inconsistency there.

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    Re: Dow plunges 600 points after bond market flashes a recession warning, Citigroup tanks 5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal View Post
    Due to a career change I took all the money I'd need for a year and a half of retraining out of my stocks. I did that a little over a week ago before the DOW plummeted. Whew.

    I think you timed that just right, I think we are at the beginning of what everyone saw would even happen with trumps policies.

    I was hoping that I could make a little extra cash this fall from my trapping.

    I just checked recent actions and projections. Looks like the only thing worth trapping where I live will be coyotes. And we have ****ty coyotes around here, westerns will do well.

    The useless trade war and the inevitable recession along with Russians sanctions have further weakened the entire industry.

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    Re: Dow plunges 600 points after bond market flashes a recession warning, Citigroup tanks 5%

    Quote Originally Posted by GDViking View Post
    I think you timed that just right, I think we are at the beginning of what everyone saw would even happen with trumps policies.

    I was hoping that I could make a little extra cash this fall from my trapping.

    I just checked recent actions and projections. Looks like the only thing worth trapping where I live will be coyotes. And we have ****ty coyotes around here, westerns will do well.

    The useless trade war and the inevitable recession along with Russians sanctions have further weakened the entire industry.
    Trump has been hammering away at anything that could buttress the confidence of the market nonstop for two and a half years. The fact that it took this long for him to finally succeed in manufacturing a recession is testament to how strong the market already was when he took office.

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    Re: Dow plunges 600 points after bond market flashes a recession warning, Citigroup tanks 5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal View Post
    I talked to my financial advisor and he didn't think bonds were any sort of safe haven now. Whatever, I took out my money just in time. The rest of my investments are obviously going to be pounded pretty hard, but c'est la vie.
    Right. Bonds go down in rising interest rates. Utilities make more sense. People will still need water and power.

    All that said, market corrections are called corrections for a reason. They are not fun, but they put things where things should be. Remember that the 1987 crash--well over 20% in one day--was really just a correction. The market gained it all back by New Year.

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    Re: Dow plunges 600 points after bond market flashes a recession warning, Citigroup tanks 5%

    Quote Originally Posted by HenryChinaski View Post
    Dow plunges 600 points after bond market flashes a recession warning When Trump was elected, I said that the only thing that would turn his base against him was a full on recession. Today I don't think that would even do it. Most of his base are either retired living off their pensions, SS, fixed incomes with no skin in the game, so they don't care if the US economy tanks. Trump is nothing more than entertainment value to them . Then there's those that may be working but they have no retirement investment savings. They've no idea what a 401k is and you cant lose what you don't have. Under Obama my IRA grew exponentially. The economy was even keeled and smooth. Since senor' clown car has been in office, my 401k value is where it was 28 months ago. This asshole playing president is not good for the working man and his financial future.
    I agree that the die-hard Trump specific demographics that you describe will never come around to reality. Fear & hate are dominate hierarchical psychological motivators, and easily over-ride an individual's sense and sensibilities.

    But I fully & strongly believe that if we go into a Trump recession, as we did with the Bush recession, we will see a Democrat behind the Resolute Desk come JAN '21. The hardcore Trumpers won't care, but the rest of the country will.

    And you are right, and I've been preaching this for what seems forever: Trump took a steady growing economy & markets, rode it for another year, while needlessly juicing it with a tax-cut sugar high. But after the first year, his asinine economic policies came to bear causing no growth in the markets for nearly two years, and now we've reverted to a falling GDP & economy.

    But the worse problem now, one in which Trump contributed greatly that he & the Fed may not be able to arrest, is the falling global economy. Trade wars & currency wars, when involving the world's two largest economic superpowers, have global consequence.

    On top of Trump's inherent domestic and economic problems, his future is now tied to Xi Jingping's actions & desires. Trump capitulated in his trade war yesterday, showing Xi that he is at his limit of economic pain. It's going to be interesting to see how Xi reacts, but he (Xi) is clearly in the driver's seat.

    The inverted yield curve is thought to be a highly reliable indicator. But nothing is absolute, each economic environment has its own specific peculiarities, and it remains to be seen if the curve continues to invert, or whether it will revert back positive.

    But it is starting to look like we are continuing the usual historical pattern of a Dems handing the Repubs a great economy, the Repubs crashing it, and the Dems then inheriting the Repub's mess & straightening it out, only to have the pattern repeat again when the Repubs come back to power.

    Why anyone would put Republicans in charge of the economy (or anything else!), is beyond me.

    (Geez, just checked - Dow 700+ pts down)
    Last edited by Chomsky; 08-14-19 at 01:28 PM. Reason: clarity
    "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross." - Sinclair Lewis

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    Re: Dow plunges 600 points after bond market flashes a recession warning, Citigroup tanks 5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Drawdown View Post
    Not sure the yield inversion is really that big an indicator these days. I have suspected for a while now that we are probably in a new variant of the liquidity trap. Just instead of people holding their extra money in the bank, they are using it to service debt.


    The data tells a much different story.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: Dow plunges 600 points after bond market flashes a recession warning, Citigroup tanks 5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal View Post
    Trump has been hammering away at anything that could buttress the confidence of the market nonstop for two and a half years. The fact that it took this long for him to finally succeed in manufacturing a recession is testament to how strong the market already was when he took office.
    And I'd bet the entire balance of my retirement portfolio that in the background his shills are buying up stocks for him, he recants, tweets, Market shares go go up and he makes billions.
    Give a man a fish and he can eat for a day. Teach a man to fish and he can sit in a boat, drinking beer all day while you fool around with his Woman.

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    Re: Dow plunges 600 points after bond market flashes a recession warning, Citigroup tanks 5%

    Quote Originally Posted by SCrider View Post
    They will somehow spin this to being the Dems in congress fault.
    Funny you say that. I just went to lunch with a hardcore trump supporter at work and rode together in his truck. I **** you not that Rush Limbaugh is currently trying to explain that all the lefties in the financial sector are putting out all of this news to try to ruin the economy so that they can blame Trump and make him lose the election. He's putting all the blame on the fed chair and the lefties on wall street.

    I mean, I know Limbaugh is a ****ing moron. I used to work in a bullpen type office and people would play him at work and I could hear his rants. So I'm well aware of the kind of incredibly stupid **** that comes out of his mouth. But it's like he's not even trying to tie his conspiracy theories to anything in reality. Wallstreet is nothing but lefties? They would/could wreck the economy and the stock market on purpose just to **** trump over? This is the kind of crap that's spewed by the most listened to right wing pundit in the country? Amazing.
    Quote Originally Posted by TurtleDude View Post
    uh that is so small as to be stupid. Do you want registration? given less than 3% of criminals get their guns from private sales, its pretty much a waste of resources
    **Thirty Minutes Later**
    Quote Originally Posted by TurtleDude View Post
    you are confused. I never denied that many criminals get guns in private sales.

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    Re: Dow plunges 600 points after bond market flashes a recession warning, Citigroup tanks 5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Kushinator View Post


    The data tells a much different story.
    No not really

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    Re: Dow plunges 600 points after bond market flashes a recession warning, Citigroup tanks 5%

    Quote Originally Posted by Drawdown View Post
    No not really
    Interest payments are less than 2% of personal income. What you've claimed cannot be supported by evidence.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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