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Thread: Trump expected to back away from census citizenship question

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    Re: Trump expected to back away from census citizenship question

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueTex View Post
    Umm.... this move won't change apportionment at all... You see, there was a great GOP victory in the supreme court in 1999 which prohibits using anything they might collect outside of the actual census...

    Department of Commerce v. United States House | US Law | LII / Legal Information Institute
    I heard Barr say that trump's 'citizen data' could be used for redistricting WITHIN a state, only using citizens for redistricting.
    This goes against that 1999 USSC ruling you linked to.
    If Barr wins that one in the USSC, I see GOPs winning every way.

    Barring an under-count of 'people' in GOP states like TX, FL, and AZ, these states are estimated to gain 3, 2, and 1 CDs respectively in 2021.
    I see the USSC ruling as an actually win for these GOP states, as they've gained the most 'people', with trump still able to appeal to his uneducated base.
    Most Midwestern states are estimated to lose one CD, and most of them are run at the state legislative level by GOPs. Ballotpedia is exhaustive.

    The GOP will have more seats from the Census and may have this potentially new gerrymandered tool of only using citizens on redistricting.
    The next House looks to be even more gerrymandered than this one is, and the critical races at the state level don't favor DEMs, as per REDMAP 2010.

    I can't find your post with the map of the USA showing non-citizens.
    I would be appreciative if you could link that.
    Chemists Have Solutions; formerly nimby

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    Re: Trump expected to back away from census citizenship question

    Quote Originally Posted by Linc View Post
    I heard Barr say that trump's 'citizen data' could be used for redistricting WITHIN a state, only using citizens for redistricting.
    This goes against that 1999 USSC ruling you linked to.
    If Barr wins that one in the USSC, I see GOPs winning every way.
    I think the odds of winning that one are very long given the 1999 ruling and numerous other precedents..

    Barring an under-count of 'people' in GOP states like TX, FL, and AZ, these states are estimated to gain 3, 2, and 1 CDs respectively in 2021.
    I see the USSC ruling as an actually win for these GOP states, as they've gained the most 'people', with trump still able to appeal to his uneducated base.
    Most Midwestern states are estimated to lose one CD, and most of them are run at the state legislative level by GOPs. Ballotpedia is exhaustive.

    The GOP will have more seats from the Census and may have this potentially new gerrymandered tool of only using citizens on redistricting.
    The next House looks to be even more gerrymandered than this one is, and the critical races at the state level don't favor DEMs, as per REDMAP 2010.

    I can't find your post with the map of the USA showing non-citizens.
    I would be appreciative if you could link that.

    Here is the state by state data...

    U.S. unauthorized immigrant population estimates by state, 2016 | Pew Research Center

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    Re: Trump expected to back away from census citizenship question

    Quote Originally Posted by Rexedgar View Post
    No, they said that the reasons the Administration cited were bogus; basically, “go back and bring a better argument.”

    Then the lawyers rebelled and the Administration seems to have folded.


    “WILBUR”
    The lawyers rebelled because coming back with a new argument would basically require admission of perjury. They lied their asses off and got backed into a corner because of it.
    “personal attorney” to Individual-1, who at that point had become the President of the United States
    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    I don't know who [Individual-1] is and neither do you.

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    Re: Trump expected to back away from census citizenship question

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueTex View Post
    I think the odds of winning that one are very long given the 1999 ruling and numerous other precedents..
    I see this as an entirely different USSC from 1999, state's rights libertarian to the max, as we saw with them legalizing 'partisan' gerrymandering.
    IIRC, this court ruled 5-3 against racial GM in North Carolina, with Thomas along with the liberals, as a run-up to their 5-4 ruling.

    Democrats screwed up switching from racial to partisan, though Roberts previously supported racial GM.
    So, is it racial GM to eliminate non-citizens from redistricting, will it matter to THIS court, and will Thomas flip back?


    Thank you. I've been looking at some of the ACS data before I saw you mention it in other posts. Here's the best link I could find so far.

    115th Congress Members Guide with Elections and Demographic Data by District - Google Sheets

    Scrolling across to ACS Citizen Voting Age Population, and choosing Arizona, CDs 03 and 07 stand out.
    First, they have far less citizens. Second, their % voting is well below the national average.
    These stats are just as alarming in your state as well as FL.
    Chemists Have Solutions; formerly nimby

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    Re: Trump expected to back away from census citizenship question

    Quote Originally Posted by poweRob View Post
    I wonder why he is running away from this since his lackey Barr said it was legally okay... DESPITE the SCOTUS saying otherwise.

    Trump expected to back away from census citizenship question, direct Commerce to seek data through other sources

    President Donald Trump is expected to issue an executive action Thursday directing the Commerce Department to obtain citizenship data through means other than the US census, according to two people with knowledge of the plan.

    These people said Trump is expected to table his effort to add a question about citizenship status to the 2020 census, setting aside his demands last week to continue pursuing the issue despite a Supreme Court order blocking it.
    I would hate to be a Trump supporter. He abandons everything hard.
    When this is all over, nobody will admit to ever having supported it. -- David Frum

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    Re: Trump expected to back away from census citizenship question

    Quote Originally Posted by Linc View Post
    I see this as an entirely different USSC from 1999, state's rights libertarian to the max, as we saw with them legalizing 'partisan' gerrymandering.
    IIRC, this court ruled 5-3 against racial GM in North Carolina, with Thomas along with the liberals, as a run-up to their 5-4 ruling.

    Democrats screwed up switching from racial to partisan, though Roberts previously supported racial GM.
    So, is it racial GM to eliminate non-citizens from redistricting, will it matter to THIS court, and will Thomas flip back?




    Thank you. I've been looking at some of the ACS data before I saw you mention it in other posts. Here's the best link I could find so far.

    115th Congress Members Guide with Elections and Demographic Data by District - Google Sheets

    Scrolling across to ACS Citizen Voting Age Population, and choosing Arizona, CDs 03 and 07 stand out.
    First, they have far less citizens. Second, their % voting is well below the national average.
    These stats are just as alarming in your state as well as FL.
    It seems like you arguing that they will reverse Evenwel v. Abbott? Why would they reverse a ruling from 3 years ago?

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    Re: Trump expected to back away from census citizenship question

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueTex View Post
    It seems like you arguing that they will reverse Evenwel v. Abbott? Why would they reverse a ruling from 3 years ago?
    I see it ruled that states ‘may’ use total population for redistricting, but did not rule on whether states could use ‘just citizens’ to redistrict. I could be wrong, but I thought I heard Barr say States could use Citizens only to redistrict.
    Chemists Have Solutions; formerly nimby

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    Re: Trump expected to back away from census citizenship question

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueTex View Post
    An audit for what?


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    For places like California, who try to count illegals to affect House congressional balance.

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    Re: Trump expected to back away from census citizenship question

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    For places like California, who try to count illegals to affect House congressional balance.
    They ARE counted for apportionment.... there is no trying about it... not even the administration has tried to argue they can be excluded from the count for apportionment...

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    Re: Trump expected to back away from census citizenship question

    Quote Originally Posted by poweRob View Post
    I wonder why he is running away from this since his lackey Barr said it was legally okay... DESPITE the SCOTUS saying otherwise.

    Trump expected to back away from census citizenship question, direct Commerce to seek data through other sources

    President Donald Trump is expected to issue an executive action Thursday directing the Commerce Department to obtain citizenship data through means other than the US census, according to two people with knowledge of the plan.

    These people said Trump is expected to table his effort to add a question about citizenship status to the 2020 census, setting aside his demands last week to continue pursuing the issue despite a Supreme Court order blocking it.

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