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Hate Crimes Have Apparently Spiked in Counties That Held Trump 2016 Rallies

TU Curmudgeon

TU Curmudgeon

B.A. (Sarc), LLb. (Lex Sarcasus), PhD (Sarc.)
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From Splinter

Hate Crimes Have Apparently Spiked in Counties That Held Trump 2016 Rallies
​

Donald Trump has run a nonstop campaign of white fear ever since the beginning of his first presidential campaign. Now, new research indicates that, for some strange reason, hate crimes are off the charts in the places where Trump campaigned for president in 2016.

Three researchers at the University of North Texas have a new piece out in the Washington Postexplaining the results of a study on this. Using an Anti-Defamation League map of hate crimes, the researchers found that in the American counties which hosted one of Trump’s 275 campaign rallies in 2016, there was a “226 percent increase in reported hate crimes over comparable counties that did not host such a rally.”

While the researchers—professors Valerie Martinez-Ebers and Regina Branton, and doctoral candidate Ayal Feinberg—stress that they can’t pinpoint Trump’s campaign rhetoric as the root cause of this, the numbers correlate with a nationwide spike in hate crimes since 2016. The authors cite a 17 percent increase in reported hate crimes nationwide from 2016 to 2017, Trump’s first year in office, which marked the third consecutive year they rose. And according to FBI hate crime statistics from 2017, there were over 900 incidents of alleged anti-Jewish hate crimes that year, as well as 273 incidents of alleged anti-Muslim hate crimes, over 1,000 incidents of anti-LGBTQ hate crimes, and over 2,000 incidents of anti-black hate crimes.

While conservative outlets like the Daily Caller and the New York Post jumped on the Jussie Smollett case in Chicago as proof of a nefarious trend of hoax hate crimes, the researchers note that it’s much more likely that hate crimes are underreported—meaning the 226 percent number could very well be the low end.

COMMENT:-

Apologies for the linked source, but the Washington Post source article (which is actually better written) doesn't like my browser.

NOTE - The authors of the study DO NOT make any claim regarding CAUSATION only CORRELATION. And that could mean that Mr. Trump prefers to speak to "hate crime increase prone" venues rather than that Mr. Trump speaking in a venue causes an increase in hate crimes.

On the basis of the data available so far, I don't take any position either way, but I did find the data "interesting".
​
 
TU Curmudgeon said:
On the basis of the data available so far, I don't take any position either way, but I did find the data "interesting".
Click to expand...
Interesting, but not seemingly all that objective.

Meanwhile, some other statistics - ones that don't seem to make headlines because they're not about Trump or white people:
According to the FBI's own statistics, white people actually commit a lot less hate crimes than one would expect given their percent makeup of the population. On the other hand, black people seem to commit a heck of a lot, well over what would be expected from their percent makeup of the population. Here is 2017 for example: Hate Crime Statistics | HATECRIMES | Department of Justice
Of the 6,370 known offenders: 50.7% were White 21.3% were Black or African American 19.1% race unknown Other races accounted for the remaining known offenders. Of the 5,131 known offenders for whom ethnicity was reported: 25.0% were Not Hispanic or Latino 8.8% were Hispanic or Latino 1.6% were in a group of multiple ethnicities 64.5 ethnicity unknown
Click to expand...
So Whites make up 50 percent of 'hate crime' perpetrators. But they make up around 70 percent of the population. And Blacks make up 21 percent of 'hate crime perpetrators'. But they only consist of 12.3 percent of the population. Latinos - similar to whites - made up only 8.8 percent of hate crimes, compared to their 12.5 percent population in the US. I'm willing to bet a closer look at the breakdown would see similar underrepresentation by Asian americans as well. It seems the only group over-repressented (at about double the expected amount based on population), are black Americans.

But let's also be fair -hate crimes by whites DID go up in 2017 then, and ones committed by african americans went down some , when compared to 2016 where the black american representation in hate crime committing was even higher:
46.3 percent were White.

26.1 percent were Black or African American.

7.7 percent were groups made up of individuals of various races (group of multiple races).

0.8 percent (46 offenders) were Asian.

0.8 percent (45 offenders) were American Indian or Alaska Native.

0.1 percent (7 offenders) were Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander.

18.1 percent were unknown.
Click to expand...
Just some interesting stats to add to yours.
 
More sources: Hate crimes have risen 226% in areas where Trump held rallies / LGBTQ Nation

Seriously anyone who claims trump is not a divider, that he doesn't spread hate and that his red had goons are any more than rabid thugs is being wilfully ignorant.

To top it off AOC gets daily death threats. Why on earth would so many people care about a freshman congresswoman if not for the 24/7 hate fest on cable news and the internet.

Trump is the hate monger in chief. Trumpism is a disease.
 
Conservatives don't believe hate crimes are real so this is a useless post.
 
TU Curmudgeon said:
From Splinter

Hate Crimes Have Apparently Spiked in Counties That Held Trump 2016 Rallies
​

Donald Trump has run a nonstop campaign of white fear ever since the beginning of his first presidential campaign. Now, new research indicates that, for some strange reason, hate crimes are off the charts in the places where Trump campaigned for president in 2016.

Three researchers at the University of North Texas have a new piece out in the Washington Postexplaining the results of a study on this. Using an Anti-Defamation League map of hate crimes, the researchers found that in the American counties which hosted one of Trump’s 275 campaign rallies in 2016, there was a “226 percent increase in reported hate crimes over comparable counties that did not host such a rally.”

While the researchers—professors Valerie Martinez-Ebers and Regina Branton, and doctoral candidate Ayal Feinberg—stress that they can’t pinpoint Trump’s campaign rhetoric as the root cause of this, the numbers correlate with a nationwide spike in hate crimes since 2016. The authors cite a 17 percent increase in reported hate crimes nationwide from 2016 to 2017, Trump’s first year in office, which marked the third consecutive year they rose. And according to FBI hate crime statistics from 2017, there were over 900 incidents of alleged anti-Jewish hate crimes that year, as well as 273 incidents of alleged anti-Muslim hate crimes, over 1,000 incidents of anti-LGBTQ hate crimes, and over 2,000 incidents of anti-black hate crimes.

While conservative outlets like the Daily Caller and the New York Post jumped on the Jussie Smollett case in Chicago as proof of a nefarious trend of hoax hate crimes, the researchers note that it’s much more likely that hate crimes are underreported—meaning the 226 percent number could very well be the low end.

COMMENT:-

Apologies for the linked source, but the Washington Post source article (which is actually better written) doesn't like my browser.

NOTE - The authors of the study DO NOT make any claim regarding CAUSATION only CORRELATION. And that could mean that Mr. Trump prefers to speak to "hate crime increase prone" venues rather than that Mr. Trump speaking in a venue causes an increase in hate crimes.

On the basis of the data available so far, I don't take any position either way, but I did find the data "interesting".
​
Click to expand...

been other studies too
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...-does-inspire-more-hate-crimes/?noredirect=on
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-campaign-rally-hate-crimes-study-maga-2019-3
https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/FBI-Hate-crimes-in-U-S-CA-surge-in-first-year-13389522.php

now of course IMO trump is not the "responsible" party and not to directly blame but he is gas on the fire . . thats just reality
 
Obscurity said:
Conservatives don't believe hate crimes are real so this is a useless post.
Click to expand...

its counter productive to group all conservatives together . .
normal honest and integrity based ones fully understand they exist.

only nutball dishonest extremists deny it
 
AGENT J said:
its counter productive to group all conservatives together . .
normal honest and integrity based ones fully understand they exist.

only nutball dishonest extremists deny it
Click to expand...

Meh. I shed not a single tear. I've seen every democrat lumped in with insane social justice warriors all across this forum.

As an independent who leans more left, I take issue with that and don't really give a damn if it isn't fair.

The high road is overrated.
 
Obscurity said:
1.) Meh. I shed not a single tear. I've seen every democrat lumped in with insane social justice warriors all across this forum.
2.)As an independent who leans more left, I take issue with that and don't really give a damn if it isn't fair.
3.) The high road is overrated.
Click to expand...

1.) ive seen that too and when i do i point out how equally biased and retarded that is also
2.) got it, so you are just like the dishonest people that do it in the other direction and you are all part of the same problem, at least you dont deny it
3.) to people like you that dont care about honesty and integrity obviously LMAO
 
TU Curmudgeon said:
From Splinter

Hate Crimes Have Apparently Spiked in Counties That Held Trump 2016 Rallies
​

Donald Trump has run a nonstop campaign of white fear ever since the beginning of his first presidential campaign. Now, new research indicates that, for some strange reason, hate crimes are off the charts in the places where Trump campaigned for president in 2016.

Three researchers at the University of North Texas have a new piece out in the Washington Postexplaining the results of a study on this. Using an Anti-Defamation League map of hate crimes, the researchers found that in the American counties which hosted one of Trump’s 275 campaign rallies in 2016, there was a “226 percent increase in reported hate crimes over comparable counties that did not host such a rally.”

While the researchers—professors Valerie Martinez-Ebers and Regina Branton, and doctoral candidate Ayal Feinberg—stress that they can’t pinpoint Trump’s campaign rhetoric as the root cause of this, the numbers correlate with a nationwide spike in hate crimes since 2016. The authors cite a 17 percent increase in reported hate crimes nationwide from 2016 to 2017, Trump’s first year in office, which marked the third consecutive year they rose. And according to FBI hate crime statistics from 2017, there were over 900 incidents of alleged anti-Jewish hate crimes that year, as well as 273 incidents of alleged anti-Muslim hate crimes, over 1,000 incidents of anti-LGBTQ hate crimes, and over 2,000 incidents of anti-black hate crimes.

While conservative outlets like the Daily Caller and the New York Post jumped on the Jussie Smollett case in Chicago as proof of a nefarious trend of hoax hate crimes, the researchers note that it’s much more likely that hate crimes are underreported—meaning the 226 percent number could very well be the low end.

COMMENT:-

Apologies for the linked source, but the Washington Post source article (which is actually better written) doesn't like my browser.

NOTE - The authors of the study DO NOT make any claim regarding CAUSATION only CORRELATION. And that could mean that Mr. Trump prefers to speak to "hate crime increase prone" venues rather than that Mr. Trump speaking in a venue causes an increase in hate crimes.

On the basis of the data available so far, I don't take any position either way, but I did find the data "interesting".
​
Click to expand...



... and did that "report" list the % increase of Smollett hate crimes?
 
TU Curmudgeon said:
From Splinter

Hate Crimes Have Apparently Spiked in Counties That Held Trump 2016 Rallies
​

Donald Trump has run a nonstop campaign of white fear ever since the beginning of his first presidential campaign. Now, new research indicates that, for some strange reason, hate crimes are off the charts in the places where Trump campaigned for president in 2016.

Three researchers at the University of North Texas have a new piece out in the Washington Postexplaining the results of a study on this. Using an Anti-Defamation League map of hate crimes, the researchers found that in the American counties which hosted one of Trump’s 275 campaign rallies in 2016, there was a “226 percent increase in reported hate crimes over comparable counties that did not host such a rally.”

While the researchers—professors Valerie Martinez-Ebers and Regina Branton, and doctoral candidate Ayal Feinberg—stress that they can’t pinpoint Trump’s campaign rhetoric as the root cause of this, the numbers correlate with a nationwide spike in hate crimes since 2016. The authors cite a 17 percent increase in reported hate crimes nationwide from 2016 to 2017, Trump’s first year in office, which marked the third consecutive year they rose. And according to FBI hate crime statistics from 2017, there were over 900 incidents of alleged anti-Jewish hate crimes that year, as well as 273 incidents of alleged anti-Muslim hate crimes, over 1,000 incidents of anti-LGBTQ hate crimes, and over 2,000 incidents of anti-black hate crimes.

While conservative outlets like the Daily Caller and the New York Post jumped on the Jussie Smollett case in Chicago as proof of a nefarious trend of hoax hate crimes, the researchers note that it’s much more likely that hate crimes are underreported—meaning the 226 percent number could very well be the low end.

COMMENT:-

Apologies for the linked source, but the Washington Post source article (which is actually better written) doesn't like my browser.

NOTE - The authors of the study DO NOT make any claim regarding CAUSATION only CORRELATION. And that could mean that Mr. Trump prefers to speak to "hate crime increase prone" venues rather than that Mr. Trump speaking in a venue causes an increase in hate crimes.

On the basis of the data available so far, I don't take any position either way, but I did find the data "interesting".
​
Click to expand...
Are those "hate crimes" as defined by SPLC?
 
uptower said:
More sources: Hate crimes have risen 226% in areas where Trump held rallies / LGBTQ Nation

Seriously anyone who claims trump is not a divider, that he doesn't spread hate and that his red had goons are any more than rabid thugs is being wilfully ignorant.

To top it off AOC gets daily death threats. Why on earth would so many people care about a freshman congresswoman if not for the 24/7 hate fest on cable news and the internet.

Trump is the hate monger in chief. Trumpism is a disease.
Click to expand...

226% is an increase of how many exactly? Seven or eight?

Lying with statistics to smear your political opponents is hateful.

AOC claims she gets death threats? And we are supposed to believe her?
 
What race commits the most hate crimes by % of population by a country mile?

It's not even close.
 
Last edited:
LowDown said:
AOC claims she gets death threats?
Click to expand...

Obviously she's getting death threats. She has spoken against Trump.

And we are supposed to believe her?
Click to expand...

I suppose you'll need to find out what Dear Leader wants you to think, then you can answer that question for yourself.
 
JustHanging said:
Obviously she's getting death threats. She has spoken against Trump.



I suppose you'll need to find out what Dear Leader wants you to think, then you can answer that question for yourself.
Click to expand...

Don't bother. It's like talking to a wall.

thingsupyourass.jpg
 
Gondwanaland said:
Interesting, but not seemingly all that objective.

Meanwhile, some other statistics - ones that don't seem to make headlines because they're not about Trump or white people:
According to the FBI's own statistics, white people actually commit a lot less hate crimes than one would expect given their percent makeup of the population. On the other hand, black people seem to commit a heck of a lot, well over what would be expected from their percent makeup of the population. Here is 2017 for example: Hate Crime Statistics | HATECRIMES | Department of Justice

So Whites make up 50 percent of 'hate crime' perpetrators. But they make up around 70 percent of the population. And Blacks make up 21 percent of 'hate crime perpetrators'. But they only consist of 12.3 percent of the population. Latinos - similar to whites - made up only 8.8 percent of hate crimes, compared to their 12.5 percent population in the US. I'm willing to bet a closer look at the breakdown would see similar underrepresentation by Asian americans as well. It seems the only group over-repressented (at about double the expected amount based on population), are black Americans.

But let's also be fair -hate crimes by whites DID go up in 2017 then, and ones committed by african americans went down some , when compared to 2016 where the black american representation in hate crime committing was even higher:

Just some interesting stats to add to yours.
Click to expand...

They are, indeed, interesting.

On the other hand, there IS a bit of a disparity in the rates at which people are charged with offences AND that disparity appears to be directly related to "race", so I can't draw any more conclusions from the fact that the "charging rate" for "Blacks" is higher than their demographic share of the population and I also can't draw any more conclusions from the fact that the "charging rate" for "Whites" is lower than their demographic share of the population than I could from the original article.

(And, of course, if (please note the conditional) the police officer is a "White racist" then the police officer is less likely to charge a "White" person with committing a "racist" act than they are to charge a "non-White" with committing a "racist" act. And vice versa.)

I mean, could you draw the conclusion that "supporting Donald Trump turns people into racists" or the conclusion that "being racist makes people support Donald Trump" from the data in the original article? I can't. After all "simultaneity" does not equal "causality" any more in your data than it does in the data in the original article.

I suspect that the only safe conclusion that can be drawn from the data which we actually have is that "hate crime" are becoming more prevalent.

Maybe people should be asking themselves WHY this is happening rather than attempting to blame it all on __[fill in the blank with identifier that does NOT conform with the group belonged to]__.
 
Barnacle said:
... and did that "report" list the % increase of Smollett hate crimes?
Click to expand...

Good question.

Why not read the report for yourself and find out whether the 0.011% that would be classified as "false reports of hate crimes" were included.

PS - In my opinion, Mr. Smollett was, and still is, a jerk.
 
Bullseye said:
Are those "hate crimes" as defined by SPLC?
Click to expand...

I understand that they were as defined by the Hate Crimes Prevention Act of 2009, 18 U.S.C. §249.

You might not know that


The Hate Crime Statistics Program of the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program collects data regarding criminal offenses that were motivated, in whole or in part, by the offender’s bias against the victim’s race/ethnicity/ancestry, gender, gender identity, religion, disability, or sexual orientation, and were committed against persons, property, or society. Because motivation is subjective, it is sometimes difficult to know with certainty whether a crime resulted from the offender’s bias. Moreover, the presence of bias alone does not necessarily mean that a crime can be considered a hate crime. Only when a law enforcement investigation reveals sufficient evidence to lead a reasonable and prudent person to conclude that the offender’s actions were motivated, in whole or in part, by his or her bias, should an agency report an incident as a hate crime.
​

but there is it.

Of course, if you don't actually want to pay any attention to reality, I suppose that you could also say that not a single one of those so-called "hate crimes" actually happened and that the FBI was making up all of the so-called "data" because the FBI is an integral part of the deep, dark, super secret, hidden, covert, plot by Clinton/Obama to topple the government of the United States of America and turn it into an atheistic, Muslim, left-wing, socialist, liberal, pinko, commie dictatorship where same-sex inter-racial marriages were mandatory and abortions compulsory until people reached the age where the Death Panels ordered them sent off to the concentration camps to be euthanized.
 
LowDown said:
226% is an increase of how many exactly? Seven or eight?
Click to expand...

Did you read the report, or did you simply post a knee-jerk dismissal of something that you didn't want to hear?

LowDown said:
Lying with statistics to smear your political opponents is hateful.
Click to expand...

And done by both the Republicans and the Democrats all the time. So your point would be - what?

LowDown said:
AOC claims she gets death threats? And we are supposed to believe her?
Click to expand...

I would rather suspect that the lady is smart enough to have recorders on her telephones and to NOT toss away any written communications and to preserve here eMails.

Obviously you don't hold the same opinion.
 
Erod said:
What race commits the most hate crimes by % of population by a country mile?

It's not even close.
Click to expand...

Quite right. Let's completely ignore the fact that the number of "hate crimes" is increasing so that we can all blame the __[fill in blank with identifier of group to which the blank filler does not belong]__.

PS - Did you know that IF

  • Group A consists of B% of the population and commits C% of the offences;
  • Group D consists of E% of the population and commits F% of the offences;
  • the ratio B/C is smaller than the ratio E/F; and
  • B is increasing faster than E;

    THEN
  • the ratio B/C will eventually be larger than the ratio E/F?
 
TU Curmudgeon said:
I understand that they were as defined by the Hate Crimes Prevention Act of 2009, 18 U.S.C. §249.

You might not know that


The Hate Crime Statistics Program of the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program collects data regarding criminal offenses that were motivated, in whole or in part, by the offender’s bias against the victim’s race/ethnicity/ancestry, gender, gender identity, religion, disability, or sexual orientation, and were committed against persons, property, or society. Because motivation is subjective, it is sometimes difficult to know with certainty whether a crime resulted from the offender’s bias. Moreover, the presence of bias alone does not necessarily mean that a crime can be considered a hate crime. Only when a law enforcement investigation reveals sufficient evidence to lead a reasonable and prudent person to conclude that the offender’s actions were motivated, in whole or in part, by his or her bias, should an agency report an incident as a hate crime.
​

but there is it.

Of course, if you don't actually want to pay any attention to reality, I suppose that you could also say that not a single one of those so-called "hate crimes" actually happened and that the FBI was making up all of the so-called "data" because the FBI is an integral part of the deep, dark, super secret, hidden, covert, plot by Clinton/Obama to topple the government of the United States of America and turn it into an atheistic, Muslim, left-wing, socialist, liberal, pinko, commie dictatorship where same-sex inter-racial marriages were mandatory and abortions compulsory until people reached the age where the Death Panels ordered them sent off to the concentration camps to be euthanized.
Click to expand...
This was a really good and informative post until you had to throw out the insults and demeaning language and other bull****. I'd suggest you stick to posting facts and YOUR OWN viewpoints instead of your obsessive need to insult and demean everyone who thinks differently from you. You are constantly wrong, turn threads into food fights, and embarrass yourself.
 
TU Curmudgeon said:
Good question.

Why not read the report for yourself and find out whether the 0.011% that would be classified as "false reports of hate crimes" were included.

PS - In my opinion, Mr. Smollett was, and still is, a jerk.
Click to expand...


If everything is so settled, then why is the report talking everywhere about "alleged" hate crimes?

Were they proven hate crimes or is it just the number of "alleged" hate crimes that haven not been confirmed yet, while 0.011% have been confirmed as hoax?
 
TU Curmudgeon said:
NOTE - The authors of the study DO NOT make any claim regarding CAUSATION only CORRELATION. And that could mean that Mr. Trump prefers to speak to "hate crime increase prone" venues rather than that Mr. Trump speaking in a venue causes an increase in hate crimes.
Click to expand...

OR could be he speaks in counties with large population centers which is where increased rates of hate crime are appearing.
 
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