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6-In-10 Disapprove Of Trump's Declaration Of A National Emergency

j-mac said:
Another weighted nonsense poll....I smell BS.

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We heard this very same thing during the "unskewed polls" nonsense people bought into during the 2012 election.

Most polls in 2016 were not wrong-they showed Hillary winning the popular vote by a specific margin, and that happened...they never claimed to be able to predict the electoral outcome.
 
sangha said:
Pollsters are not polls.
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Yes, and? You think you're a better judge of polling accuracy than the pollsters themselves? :lamo
 
JasperL said:
What sampling issues, and what sampling errors invalidated their poll. You're not saying anything there.
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Reading is your friend.

From my first comment in this thread:

Another poll that grossly undersamples Independents, undersamples Republicans and oversamples Democrats.
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Taylor said:
Yes, and? You think you're a better judge of polling accuracy than the pollsters themselves? :lamo
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I said nothing about judging polling accuracy.

Take your straw man argument and put it where it belongs
 
VanCleef said:
I thought her example was perfect.
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You need to think a little harder then. She thinks the President can get rid of the 2nd amendment now, because Trump is following a law passed by Congress. It is frightening that she is elected to office, let alone the Democrat leader in the House. What's worse, not a single critical thought on the left, just swallow it with a smile.
 
Anthony60 said:
Trump is following a law passed by Congress.
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Many legal scholars say his action would be unconstitutional. Her example was fine.
 
Mycroft said:
Reading is your friend.

From my first comment in this thread:
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That isn't how polling works though. That isn't inaccuracy.
 
Mycroft said:
Reading is your friend.

From my first comment in this thread:
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That's what happens in a random sample. If you've ever been involved in a survey or poll of a limited number of a big group to learn about that big group without interviewing all 200 million of them you'd know this.

What you're not explaining because you can't is how a random sample is an error somehow, or how getting a random sample and adjusting it to the population as a whole (which is what every single poll you've ever seen in politics has to do) invalidates the poll, because it doesn't. You're just trumpeting your non-existent knowledge of how polling actually works and the statistical methods involved in it.
 
Damn, I thought it'd be more like... I dunno... everyone?
 
Anthony60 said:
That's pretty much a non reply. I'll take it as you opting out, for obvious reasons.
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You're complaining about it circumventing the constitutional, hence the "2nd amendment" talk. And I'm telling you many legal scholars think Trump's move would also be circumventing the constitutions - including Dershowitz.

Hence I'm telling you why it was a good example or analogy. Another poster also told you why it was a good example.

I'm sorry, that in your opinion, you disagree.
 
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JasperL said:
That's what happens in a random sample. If you've ever been involved in a survey or poll of a limited number of a big group to learn about that big group without interviewing all 200 million of them you'd know this.

What you're not explaining because you can't is how a random sample is an error somehow, or how getting a random sample and adjusting it to the population as a whole (which is what every single poll you've ever seen in politics has to do) invalidates the poll, because it doesn't. You're just trumpeting your non-existent knowledge of how polling actually works and the statistical methods involved in it.
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If the adjustment made to sampling does not reflect "the population as a whole", the result is sampling error. That's what is happening with this poll. That's why I reject the poll.
 
Mycroft said:
Another poll that grossly undersamples Independents, undersamples Republicans and oversamples Democrats.

POLL REJECTED!!
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Hail Trump!

Hail the dear leader!

All polls are false polls that do not show him in a good light!

Hail his good brain and his stable genius!

Hail Trump!

Glory to his name!

Misery upon pollsters that make polls that don’t go his way!
 
Mycroft said:
If the adjustment made to sampling does not reflect "the population as a whole", the result is sampling error. That's what is happening with this poll. That's why I reject the poll.
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"The samples were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2017 American Community
Survey 1-year estimates for age, gender, income, race, and region. Results are statistically significant
within ±4.6 percentage points"

Seems reasonable to me. According to Gallup, party identification with the sample share in brackets is as follows.

Party Affiliation | Gallup Historical Trends
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-con...Poll-USA-NOS-and-TABLES_1902181013.pdf#page=3

Gallup/(sample)

Republican 25 (26)
Independent 39 (37)
Democratic 34 (34)

Where's the problem? R's are represented +1, Independents -2, and D's +0. Seems like it hits the nail pretty squarely on the head.

Seems you objections keep turning up unfounded. Almost like your objections aren't based in the polling methods at all!
 
NPR, PBS, and Marist did these polls? None are accurate. This thread needs moved into the Conspiracy Theories section because this is not breaking news. Make that move then we're good. Thank You!
 
Herkamer63 said:
NPR, PBS, and Marist did these polls? None are accurate. This thread needs moved into the Conspiracy Theories section because this is not breaking news. Make that move then we're good. Thank You!
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Interesting. Any evidence or did you just make that up? 538 ranks them as one of the best, "A" rating, with a lean of 0.5%R.

Pollster Ratings | FiveThirtyEight
 
VanCleef said:
qGhiEIe.gif
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Whatever dude...You can say all you want, and I for sure am no statistician, but I do know in today's paradigm with MSM peddling propaganda, and polling agencies weighting polls to arrive at the outcomes they want to push rather than a true barometer of what the nation is thinking, that we must question anything like this that is so far off of what you get when you just ask random people what they think about the matter....There is a narrative being pushed, and this is part of pushing it....
 
party free said:
We heard this very same thing during the "unskewed polls" nonsense people bought into during the 2012 election.

Most polls in 2016 were not wrong-they showed Hillary winning the popular vote by a specific margin, and that happened...they never claimed to be able to predict the electoral outcome.
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Polls will never be able to accurately predict what the population is thinking...Too many factors that can sway the outcome...Weighting, question wording, sample sizing....all play factors...Not to mention that in this political climate, people will not be honest about what their true affiliations are.
 
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