Thanks and I agree.
eace
I agree 100% with that but in practice telling the difference is often difficult.
And just from a policy standpoint, the argument made by economists and free market types, and supported by a bunch of studies actually, is what works better are broad efforts to improve the business climate. NYC is a good example - it's a reported nightmare to do business there and the taxes are high, and the regulatory burdens also costly. How many businesses don't locate there or don't expand there or move from the city because of that? We can only guess, and those don't show up in press releases because they can only be estimated. But 25,000 in a one shot big whale deal do, and that's very politically attractive.
Or maybe you make the $3 billion pot more broadly available, or spend it on improving roads, whatever. The studies don't estimate these things so the alternative uses of the money are ignored. I get that they get $0 if we assume Amazon doesn't come and 25,000 jobs are "lost" but that assumes no one else fills that valuable and growing area with new businesses, which is clearly nonsense.
The QOZs are another example - part of TCJA. That's awful policy. When you give a developer a huge tax incentive to build on one side of the street but not the other, of course they'll build where they get incentives, and the studies will show they 'worked' in that sense. What they don't measure is that plot of land next door that didn't get the tax incentives, and sells for less just because of that, or isn't developed at all. In my own area, we bike through a part of town ON THE LAKE that's now part of a QOZ and it's being filled with mansions starting at upper 6 figures into the $2-3 million range. That area is likely to boom, but it would anyway, and just outside the lakefront QOZ won't...