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30 Democrats in Puerto Rico with 109 lobbyists for weekend despite shutdown

Blackbart said:
If I'm a light weight that makes you what, an idiot?

The cowardly Leftist clung to their polls just knowing Bubba's whore was going to win, go ahead boy, cling to your polls. I enjoy kicking you when you're down.
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OK, another person that does not know the difference between an election poll and an opinion poll..... so, you get my new boiler plate explanation....

Polling is a science. It is a combination with a hard science (mathematics) and a soft science (psychology/sociology). It is well tried and proven out over the years. Let me help you understand the difference between the statement that nearly 53% of all Americans think Trump is unfit for office and your perception that the polls got it wrong in 2016.

1) there is a big difference between an election poll and an opinion poll. What I cited is an opinion; what you cited was an election poll. An election poll is an opinion poll AND a projection of turn-out. Where election polls typically fail is on projection turn-out, not the opinion side. Projection turnout attempts to predict human behavior on a specific future date. That behavior can ultimately be affected by weather, election management issues, which are outside the purview of the survey.

https://www.techrepublic.com/article/numbers-lie-all-the-time-how-political-polls-work/

2) Election polls also are dynamic because you are measuring as of a date certain using historic data. There are underlying shifts that aren't always caught.

3) A presidential election poll consists of 51 election polls. Polling in most states is reasonably sketchy. Trump won an electoral victory by winning a couple of states by less than 1 point. Turnout in those particular states was less than expected (see #6 below)

4) The final polling of the 2016 election had Hillary up by 3 points nationally, she won by 2 points.. pretty much spot on.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

5) Fivethirtyeight.com, the gold standard of poll aggregation, gave Hillary a 67% chance of winning. If the weatherman says there is a 33% chance of rain and it rains, was he wrong? If the weatherman says there is a 10% chance of rain and it rains, was he wrong?

6) Turn-out in the 2016 election was far, far less than forecast. What the Russians did in connection with their interference in the 2016 election was try to suppress turnout, particularly in the black community. That seems to have been effective and likely shifted the election in favor of Trump.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...democratic-turnout-social-media-a8687316.html



The opinion portion of the 2016 election poll with spot on; the turnout forecast (the hard part) was the bust (see #4).

So, sorry, the fact remains (unless you have veriable data refutes my point), nearly 55% of the country believe Trump is incompetent and therefore a danger to America and Americans.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2487
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2511
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2567
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2593

As to your first line, since you are new in these parts, I suggest that you learn to make your insults less direct and more creative. That kind of direct, needless insult will tend to shorten your shelf life.
 
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upsideguy said:
OK, another person that does not know the difference between an election poll and an opinion poll..... so, you get my new boiler plate explanation....

Polling is a science. It is a combination with a hard science (mathematics) and a soft science (psychology/sociology). It is well tried and proven out over the years. Let me help you understand the difference between the statement that nearly 53% of all Americans think Trump is unfit for office and your perception that the polls got it wrong in 2016.

1) there is a big difference between an election poll and an opinion poll. What I cited is an opinion; what you cited was an election poll. An election poll is an opinion poll AND a projection of turn-out. Where election polls typically fail is on projection turn-out, not the opinion side. Projection turnout attempts to predict human behavior on a specific future date. That behavior can ultimately be affected by weather, election management issues, which are outside the purview of the survey.

2) Election polls also are dynamic because you are measuring as of a date certain using historic data. There are underlying shifts that aren't always caught.

3) A presidential election poll consists of 51 election polls. Polling in most states is reasonably sketchy. Trump won an electoral victory by winning a couple of states by less than 1 point. Turnout in those particular states was less than expected (see #6 below)

4) The final polling of the 2016 election had Hillary up by 3 points nationally, she won by 2 points.. pretty much spot on.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

5) Fivethirtyeight.com, the gold standard of poll aggregation, gave Hillary a 67% chance of winning. If the weatherman says there is a 33% chance of rain and it rains, was he wrong? If the weatherman says there is a 10% chance of rain and it rains, was he wrong?

6) Turn-out in the 2016 election was far, far less than forecast. What the Russians did in connection with their interference in the 2016 election was try to suppress turnout, particularly in the black community. That seems to have been effective and likely shifted the election in favor of Trump.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...democratic-turnout-social-media-a8687316.html



The opinion portion of the 2016 election poll with spot on; the turnout forecast (the hard part) was the bust (see #4).

So, sorry, the fact remains (unless you have veriable data refutes my point), nearly 55% of the country believe Trump is incompetent and therefore a danger to America and Americans.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2487
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2511
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2567

As to your first line, since you are new in these parts, I suggest that you learn to make your insults less direct and more creative. That kind of direct, needless insult will tend to shorten your shelf life.
Click to expand...

Memo to you, don't throw aimless rocks and you may not get return fire.
 
Deuce said:
Trump said he would own it
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Like I said, I'm cool with the shutdown. Trump can own the shutdown, the Democrats can own the heroin crisis, the dead cops, dead Americans and the human trafficking that the open border brings.
 
upsideguy said:
The country is FAILING. Our fragile democracy hangs in the balance as we figure out how to deal with the most corrupt individual ever in the White House.

Meanwhile, no one cares about a bunch of junior congressman laying on the beach in Puerto Rico when there is nothing to do in Washington. It is Trump that needs to worry about the perception. He started this thing; he said he would be honored to shut the thing down; he has the keys to fixing this and he has the rapidly falling approval ratings.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

..as I near my retirement age (if I could just stop being an entrepreneur), I am a little focused on my portfolio.... and since stocks typically do 5x better with Democrats in the White House, I am anxiously awaiting 2020.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/history-shows-stocks-gdp-outperform-under-democrats
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4223417-best-stock-market-returns-u-s-president-since-obama
https://www.macrotrends.net/2481/stock-market-performance-by-president
Click to expand...

A lot of negative articles none of which report the official economic data being generated and very poorly interpreted by you. The stock market when Trump was elected was 18K, when he was inaugurated it was 19k and it is 24k as of yesterday. Your 401K has generated a higher return over any other investment the last two years and if you had the right stock your gains would have been much greater. Focusing on the DOW performance and giving credit to the Democratic Presidents ignores the presence of Congress

Your portfolio is on good hands as Trump has generated over 2 trillion dollars to GDP growth in 2 years, the BEST performance in U.S. History and 4.7 million jobs in those two years, again the best performance in U.S. history. You are blinded by hatred of his personality and totally ignoring the official results generated

As for the Puerto Rico Trip by the Democrats, poor judgement and poor visual that you want to ignore
 
upsideguy said:
OK, another person that does not know the difference between an election poll and an opinion poll..... so, you get my new boiler plate explanation....

Polling is a science. It is a combination with a hard science (mathematics) and a soft science (psychology/sociology). It is well tried and proven out over the years. Let me help you understand the difference between the statement that nearly 53% of all Americans think Trump is unfit for office and your perception that the polls got it wrong in 2016.

1) there is a big difference between an election poll and an opinion poll. What I cited is an opinion; what you cited was an election poll. An election poll is an opinion poll AND a projection of turn-out. Where election polls typically fail is on projection turn-out, not the opinion side. Projection turnout attempts to predict human behavior on a specific future date. That behavior can ultimately be affected by weather, election management issues, which are outside the purview of the survey.

https://www.techrepublic.com/article/numbers-lie-all-the-time-how-political-polls-work/

2) Election polls also are dynamic because you are measuring as of a date certain using historic data. There are underlying shifts that aren't always caught.

3) A presidential election poll consists of 51 election polls. Polling in most states is reasonably sketchy. Trump won an electoral victory by winning a couple of states by less than 1 point. Turnout in those particular states was less than expected (see #6 below)

4) The final polling of the 2016 election had Hillary up by 3 points nationally, she won by 2 points.. pretty much spot on.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

5) Fivethirtyeight.com, the gold standard of poll aggregation, gave Hillary a 67% chance of winning. If the weatherman says there is a 33% chance of rain and it rains, was he wrong? If the weatherman says there is a 10% chance of rain and it rains, was he wrong?

6) Turn-out in the 2016 election was far, far less than forecast. What the Russians did in connection with their interference in the 2016 election was try to suppress turnout, particularly in the black community. That seems to have been effective and likely shifted the election in favor of Trump.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...democratic-turnout-social-media-a8687316.html



The opinion portion of the 2016 election poll with spot on; the turnout forecast (the hard part) was the bust (see #4).

So, sorry, the fact remains (unless you have veriable data refutes my point), nearly 55% of the country believe Trump is incompetent and therefore a danger to America and Americans.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2487
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2511
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2567
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2593

As to your first line, since you are new in these parts, I suggest that you learn to make your insults less direct and more creative. That kind of direct, needless insult will tend to shorten your shelf life.
Click to expand...

Thank you for a VERY good explanation of the differences between types of polls.

Two minor comments, however:

  1. what you (generally) see reported are "national" polls (and, as you noted, "national" polls don't mean much unless you have a "national" election and the US DOES NOT have a "national" election for President but, as you noted, has 51 "state" elections); and
  2. you might consider adding "electoralvote.com" to you "Gold Standard" list if only because their algorithms differ slightly from those used by fivethirtyeight.com (the end results of the two come pretty close to each other) so you get a slightly different perspective from each.
 
Blackbart said:
Memo to you, don't throw aimless rocks and you may not get return fire.
Click to expand...

Probably a tad bit more aggressive with you than I am normally. Your point well taken.

That said, I have thick skin, my statement at the bottom was generally advice to you if you wish to stay around here remember that its fair to attack the message, but not the poster (directly anyway). The post can be idiotic (if you explain why); but you can't call the poster an idiot. Remember that smart people can say dumb things, particularly when they show intellectual laziness, as many here do.

Welcome to DP.
 
upsideguy said:
Probably a tad bit more aggressive with you than I am normally. Your point well taken.

That said, I have thick skin, my statement at the bottom was generally advice to you if you wish to stay around here remember that its fair to attack the message, but not the poster (directly anyway). The post can be idiotic (if you explain why); but you can't call the poster an idiot. Remember that smart people can say dumb things, particularly when they show intellectual laziness, as many here do.

Welcome to DP.
Click to expand...

So what time is chow?
 
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