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Renewable Energy Will Be Consistently Cheaper Than Fossil Fuels By 2020

There is great benefit is finding viable sources of energy from sustainable sources,
If reducing CO2 levels is any benefit, it is a side effect.
We have an energy problem, not a CO2 problem.
We cannot solve our energy problem with natural hydrocarbons for long.
Solving our real problem of energy will address CO2 as a side effect.
Any monies or efforts spent directly addressing CO2 as the issue, are mostly wasted, as it is not addressing the actual problem.

Even federal reports published during Trump’s presidency warns about climate changes from fossil fuels and its devatating effects.

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/
 
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I don't think that I actually said that I thought otherwise.

Those benefits might be as simple as reducing the amount of poisonous gases released into the atmosphere and they might be as complex as preventing the natural flux of climate change reaching a tipping point (with consequences that we cannot determine) or them might be anywhere in the middle - BUT there are still benefits.



Another thing that I never disputed. Of course I can understand (which does NOT mean the same thing as "agree with") the actions of those who stand to lose financially should the entire energy production/use structure change in such a way that the source of their income dries up.

After all, buggy whip manufacturers weren't all that keen on the introduction of the "horseless carriage" were they?

It just that the fossil fuel have so much more influence over our socities than the buggy whip manufacturers had back in the days. For example that gas companies spend 100 million Euros, roughly the same in dollars, during 2016 to influence European policies to keep EU dependent on fossil fuels.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-in-to-fossil-fuels-for-decades-a8028056.html

The fossil fuel industries have also had a huge influence on the Trump administration.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/09/climate/coal-murray-trump-memo.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/13/climate/cafe-emissions-rollback-oil-industry.html

Trump also wants to spend billions of dollars propping up unprofitable coal plants.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-d...save-americas-failing-coal-fired-power-plants
 
Your assumption is that energy consumption is the problem, the problem is that there is not enough naturally stored hydrocarbon energy to allow
the entire current population to live a first world lifestyle.
The answer is not to lower the lifestyle of the first world, but to find a solution to allow all to participate.
While there is room to improve, said improvement should not be at the cost of a reduced lifestyle, and that include the freedom to move about
independent of public transportation.

I tend to think clean air and clean water are not "reducing the lifestyle of the first world."

If you think living in a smog choked wasteland with poisoned streams thanks to things like mountaintop mining and fracking is advancing the first world, you and I will never agree.
 
The organisation – which has more than 150 member countries – says the cost of generating power from onshore wind has fallen by around 23% since 2010 while the cost of solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity has fallen by 73% in that time.

Lots of stuff will become cheaper, as frictionless, magnetic bearings begin to make their way into mainstream engineering.
Energy generating- and storing devices are only the beginning.

We live in interesting times :)
 
I tend to think clean air and clean water are not "reducing the lifestyle of the first world."

If you think living in a smog choked wasteland with poisoned streams thanks to things like mountaintop mining and fracking is advancing the first world, you and I will never agree.
So who is advocating for smog and poisoned streams?
You are assuming that for the entire population to live a first world lifestyle would require pollution, that is not coorrect.
In fact we simply do not have enough natural hydrocarbons to sustain that for very long.
The only way to do it, is to find a sustainable path forward.
Solar power stored as carbon neutral fuels, could provide a portion of that path.
Along the way it would render coal and oil in the ground as an expensive commodity for specialized use.
 
I tend to think clean air and clean water are not "reducing the lifestyle of the first world."

If you think living in a smog choked wasteland with poisoned streams thanks to things like mountaintop mining and fracking is advancing the first world, you and I will never agree.

Yes and you can also look at Forbes best country for business list.

https://www.forbes.com/best-countries-for-business/list/#tab:overall

One first place UK that have drasticly reduced it's coal consumption and will close it's last coal plant in 2025.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/05/uk-coal-fired-power-plants-close-2025

While on fourth place you have Sweden that implemented a carbon tax as early as 1995 and is one of the world's most sustainable countries,.

https://info.esg.adec-innovations.c...worlds-most-sustainable-country-top-5-reasons

Sweden also past bipartisan legislation to be carbon neutral by 2045.

https://unfccc.int/news/sweden-plans-to-be-carbon-neutral-by-2045

On seventh place you have Denmark got 43 percent of their electricity from wind power in 2017 and also plan to meet 50 percent of all their energy needs with renewable energy by 2030 is on seventh place.

https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2018/0111/932573-denmark-wind-farm/
 
So who is advocating for smog and poisoned streams?
You are assuming that for the entire population to live a first world lifestyle would require pollution, that is not coorrect.
In fact we simply do not have enough natural hydrocarbons to sustain that for very long.
The only way to do it, is to find a sustainable path forward.
Solar power stored as carbon neutral fuels, could provide a portion of that path.
Along the way it would render coal and oil in the ground as an expensive commodity for specialized use.

US have a president that appoints a form coal lobbyist as administrator of the EPA.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-e...ing-epa-chief-wheeler-for-senate-confirmation

While a former fossil fuels lobbyist will also lead the interior department.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...hardt-ryan-zinke-lobbyist-interior-department
 
So which of the clean air or clean water acts are they advocating removing or lessening?

For example wanting to allow new coal plants to emit up to 1,900 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour of electricity, up from 1,400 pounds now.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...arbon-limits-on-new-coal-plants-idUSKBN1O519C

Here are some more example of plans to remove and lessen regulations.

“The memo was written by Robert E. Murray, a longtime Trump supporter who donated $300,000 to the president’s inauguration. In it, Mr. Murray, the head of Murray Energy, presented Mr. Trump with a wish list of environmental rollbacks just weeks after the inauguration.

Nearly a year later, the White House and federal agencies have completed or are on track to fulfill most of the 16 detailed requests, even with Monday’s decision by federal regulators to reject a proposal by Energy Secretary Rick Perry to subsidize struggling coal and nuclear plants.

The March 1 memo, which was obtained by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island and shared with The New York Times, is addressed to Vice President Mike Pence. The sweeping wish list of regulatory overhauls includes ending regulations on greenhouse gas emissions and ozone and mine safety, as well as cutting the staff of the Environmental Protection Agency “at least in half” and overhauling the Labor Department’s office of mine safety.”


https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/09/climate/coal-murray-trump-memo.html
 
For example wanting to allow new coal plants to emit up to 1,900 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt-hour of electricity, up from 1,400 pounds now.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...arbon-limits-on-new-coal-plants-idUSKBN1O519C

Here are some more example of plans to remove and lessen regulations.

“The memo was written by Robert E. Murray, a longtime Trump supporter who donated $300,000 to the president’s inauguration. In it, Mr. Murray, the head of Murray Energy, presented Mr. Trump with a wish list of environmental rollbacks just weeks after the inauguration.

Nearly a year later, the White House and federal agencies have completed or are on track to fulfill most of the 16 detailed requests, even with Monday’s decision by federal regulators to reject a proposal by Energy Secretary Rick Perry to subsidize struggling coal and nuclear plants.

The March 1 memo, which was obtained by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island and shared with The New York Times, is addressed to Vice President Mike Pence. The sweeping wish list of regulatory overhauls includes ending regulations on greenhouse gas emissions and ozone and mine safety, as well as cutting the staff of the Environmental Protection Agency “at least in half” and overhauling the Labor Department’s office of mine safety.”


https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/09/climate/coal-murray-trump-memo.html

Your own article said,
"and eliminate a 2009 E.P.A. ruling known as the endangerment finding that was the legal justification for much of the Obama administration’s climate change policy."
So they are not talking about rolling back the clean air and clean water acts, but some of the interpretations of the Obama administration.
 
Your own article said,
"and eliminate a 2009 E.P.A. ruling known as the endangerment finding that was the legal justification for much of the Obama administration’s climate change policy."
So they are not talking about rolling back the clean air and clean water acts, but some of the interpretations of the Obama administration.

The effects are the same the removal and lessening of regulations. It can also be good to remember that Trump himself have no problem interfering in the market without congressional approval. For example that he wants to spend billions of dollar propping up unprofitable coal plants.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-d...save-americas-failing-coal-fired-power-plants
 
The effects are the same the removal and lessening of regulations. It can also be good to remember that Trump himself have no problem interfering in the market without congressional approval. For example that he wants to spend billions of dollar propping up unprofitable coal plants.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-d...save-americas-failing-coal-fired-power-plants
Hyperbole doe not make facts, the Obama additions were related to CO2 emissions, not the aerosols that were removed in earlier regulations, those will not be affected.
 
It just that the fossil fuel have so much more influence over our socities than the buggy whip manufacturers had back in the days. For example that gas companies spend 100 million Euros, roughly the same in dollars, during 2016 to influence European policies to keep EU dependent on fossil fuels.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-in-to-fossil-fuels-for-decades-a8028056.html

The fossil fuel industries have also had a huge influence on the Trump administration.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/09/climate/coal-murray-trump-memo.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/13/climate/cafe-emissions-rollback-oil-industry.html

Trump also wants to spend billions of dollars propping up unprofitable coal plants.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-d...save-americas-failing-coal-fired-power-plants

Yes, the owners of the vested interests are quite prepared to spend money in order to defend their vested interests - so your point would be . . . what?
 
So who is advocating for smog and poisoned streams?
You are assuming that for the entire population to live a first world lifestyle would require pollution, that is not coorrect.
In fact we simply do not have enough natural hydrocarbons to sustain that for very long.

So how do you deal with those who claim that there is no problem because the Earth is producing naturally occurring hydrocarbons faster than we are using them up?

Well, other than with bursts of raucous laughter.
 
So how do you deal with those who claim that there is no problem because the Earth is producing naturally occurring hydrocarbons faster than we are using them up?

Well, other than with bursts of raucous laughter.

I do not have to deal with it, as it is irrelevant. Such processes may exists, but do not matter. We will be making fuel as a way to store energy soon enough.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I do not have to deal with it, as it is irrelevant. Such processes may exists, but do not matter. We will be making fuel as a way to store energy soon enough.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

There is only one minor flaw with that position and that is that the energy cost of "making the fuel" is higher than the amount of energy that is "stored" in the fuel made.

This is like paying 100 people $10.00 per hour (24/7/52) each to give you $9.00 per hour and then claiming that you have an income of $7,889,400 a year.
 
There is only one minor flaw with that position and that is that the energy cost of "making the fuel" is higher than the amount of energy that is "stored" in the fuel made.

This is like paying 100 people $10.00 per hour (24/7/52) each to give you $9.00 per hour and then claiming that you have an income of $7,889,400 a year.
No flaw, and less than 100% efficiency part of any storage methodology.
Where it works is that oil has a very real cost of goods sold, and refining costs are very real.
Where the man made fuel becomes viable, is where the refinery will realize greater profits from making fuel from scratch vs making it from oil.
Based of published efficiencies, (60 to 70%) that number is between $90 and $100 a barrel.
The oil companies themselves have not published their research and may have greater efficiency.
There is also the very real possibility that solar power will drive down the wholesale cost of electricity during certain seasons, and since
hydrocarbon fuels store well, those seasonal surpluses could be moved to off seasonal demand.
 
No flaw, and less than 100% efficiency part of any storage methodology.
Where it works is that oil has a very real cost of goods sold, and refining costs are very real.
Where the man made fuel becomes viable, is where the refinery will realize greater profits from making fuel from scratch vs making it from oil.
Based of published efficiencies, (60 to 70%) that number is between $90 and $100 a barrel.
The oil companies themselves have not published their research and may have greater efficiency.
There is also the very real possibility that solar power will drive down the wholesale cost of electricity during certain seasons, and since hydrocarbon fuels store well, those seasonal surpluses could be moved to off seasonal demand.

Your last sentence is 100% correct.

Unfortunately the "EcoNut" position is that ALL hydrocarbon fuels should be completely done away with.

Making the assumption that the existing electrical power grid could cope with the demand (which is, at present, completely unwarranted) then I can see a major reduction in hydrocarbon fuel consumption through a shift to electric cars/trucks. This, however, would not enable a total shift to electric vehicles simply because of the "storage capacity / reload time" needed to accommodate longer distance travel.

I can remember when a local firm was converting cars (AMC Gremlins to be specific) to "all electric". Their vehicles were successful (albeit the firm failed due to a lack of demand for its product) AND they had solved the "long distance" problem by also manufacturing a trailer that plugged into the car's recharging port and supplied a steady stream of electricity from a 12 HP gasoline engine that was specifically tuned and governed to turn a generator that was specifically designed to provide exactly the right voltage to keep the car's built in batteries charged while travelling. That 12 HP engine didn't have the torque to drive the car (think of "driving your car for 10 miles using only the starter motor") BUT was quite sufficient for the task it was designed to do.

To me that would imply that the future is going to look more like "improved dual hybrid" rather than "all electric".

However, improvements in the energy density of batteries (or even the adoption of an "industry standard" battery pack that you would swap out at your neighbourhood 'electric station') could well change that.

BTW, synthetic gasoline has been produced since 1914 (Germany relied almost exclusively on it during WWII after the loss of the conquered oil fields) and the patents were bought from the Germans by American petrochemical corporations back in the 1940s. The American petrochemical corporations have, naturally, expended the appropriate amount for R&D in order to make those patents commercially viable so that they don't have to rely on naturally occurring petrochemicals. [NOTE - In this case "appropriate" closely approximates $0.00.]
 
Your last sentence is 100% correct.

Unfortunately the "EcoNut" position is that ALL hydrocarbon fuels should be completely done away with.

Making the assumption that the existing electrical power grid could cope with the demand (which is, at present, completely unwarranted) then I can see a major reduction in hydrocarbon fuel consumption through a shift to electric cars/trucks. This, however, would not enable a total shift to electric vehicles simply because of the "storage capacity / reload time" needed to accommodate longer distance travel.

I can remember when a local firm was converting cars (AMC Gremlins to be specific) to "all electric". Their vehicles were successful (albeit the firm failed due to a lack of demand for its product) AND they had solved the "long distance" problem by also manufacturing a trailer that plugged into the car's recharging port and supplied a steady stream of electricity from a 12 HP gasoline engine that was specifically tuned and governed to turn a generator that was specifically designed to provide exactly the right voltage to keep the car's built in batteries charged while travelling. That 12 HP engine didn't have the torque to drive the car (think of "driving your car for 10 miles using only the starter motor") BUT was quite sufficient for the task it was designed to do.

To me that would imply that the future is going to look more like "improved dual hybrid" rather than "all electric".

However, improvements in the energy density of batteries (or even the adoption of an "industry standard" battery pack that you would swap out at your neighbourhood 'electric station') could well change that.

BTW, synthetic gasoline has been produced since 1914 (Germany relied almost exclusively on it during WWII after the loss of the conquered oil fields) and the patents were bought from the Germans by American petrochemical corporations back in the 1940s. The American petrochemical corporations have, naturally, expended the appropriate amount for R&D in order to make those patents commercially viable so that they don't have to rely on naturally occurring petrochemicals. [NOTE - In this case "appropriate" closely approximates $0.00.]

Nature has shown the way to store energy in a dense package, hydrocarbons, and if the carbon comes from atmospheric co2, then the fuel is carbon neutral.
The German synthetic fuel was made from other hydrocarbons like coal,not from scratch like the new technology.
The Navy and some European firms
Are publishing but not Exxon and Shell.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Nature has shown the way to store energy in a dense package, hydrocarbons, and if the carbon comes from atmospheric co2, then the fuel is carbon neutral.
The German synthetic fuel was made from other hydrocarbons like coal,not from scratch like the new technology.
The Navy and some European firms
Are publishing but not Exxon and Shell.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

When you start with previously concentrated hydrocarbons (i.e. "coal") your cost of production doesn't include the additional cost of concentrating non-concentrated hydrocarbons (i.e. "atmospheric CO[SUB]2[/SUB]).

I'm not saying that it cannot be done - or even that it might not be a good thing to do - but I do question the economics of doing it. So far I haven't seen any "cradle to grave" economic analysis that shows that "electric cars" are actually less "energy intensive" or actually produce less pollution than really efficient gasoline powered cars (and I include "advanced hybrids" in that category) let alone to show that the "lifetime purchase and operating cost" of "electrics" are lower than for really efficient gasoline powered cars (same caveat).

An interesting statistic concerns the pollution benefits of buses vs private cars. Most (IC powered) buses emit around 20 (or more) times more pollution per vehicle than does a private car. However the capacity of a bus is around 40 passengers which means that the pollution per passenger is only one half that of a private car with only its driver as a passenger. This, the supporters of mass transit will tell you, means that we should switch to buses because one bus produces less pollution per passenger than does a private car with only its own driver in it.

Unfortunately what those people sort of neglect to deal with is the fact that, over the course of a full day for most transit systems the average passenger load per bus is LESS than 20 which means that in actuality, the pollution per passenger is HIGHER for (IC powered) buses than it is for private cars.

For major urban areas, overhead wires powering buses are practical and, if regenerative braking is used very feasible. For less travelled areas, the overhead wires are not as feasible but there is always the possibility that something like the GYROBUS (but with better technology) could well work. For "interurban" transportation, again, overhead wire powered trains are practical.

[ASIDE - During the 1950s the BC Electric company ran interurban trains from Vancouver to Chilliwack (about 60 miles) using overhead trolley wires. Those trains used regenerative braking and the energy produced through braking was used to "run up" a massive flywheel/generator station which could then feed power back into the overhead lines when needed. The whole system was designed so that the load on the electrical grid was constant throughout the day - that is to say, at night when fewer trains were run the power draw was used to speed up the flywheel/generator which gradually lost power during the day only to be "recharged" then next night. This was, in effect, the application of the "Gyrobus" concept on a massive scale.]
 
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Hyperbole doe not make facts, the Obama additions were related to CO2 emissions, not the aerosols that were removed in earlier regulations, those will not be affected.

Even federal reports published during Trump’s presidency warns about the devastating effects from climate caused by fossil fuels.

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/

https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/

Also Trump's support of dirty coal plants also risk leading to more toxic pollutions.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/31/epa-trump-pollution-clean-power-plan-states

EPA under Trump also for example risk scewing reviews of air quality standards in the favor of fossil fuel interstests.

'Jeremy Sarnat, another former member of the panel, who is an associate professor of environmental health at Emory University, called the move "depressing."

"What the new and previous EPA administrators have done is dismantle a process which has, over many years, proven itself to be highly successful and effective," Sarnat said in an email. The new process, he added, now consolidates input "to a small, and in some cases unqualified, group of individuals, and ultimately opens EPA up to the charge that it is politics, not science, that is driving this new policy."'


https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/10/trump-s-epa-scraps-air-pollution-science-review-panels
 
Yes, the owners of the vested interests are quite prepared to spend money in order to defend their vested interests - so your point would be . . . what?

That you need to recognize the huge negative effect fossil fuel companies have had and still have then it comes to combating manmade global warming.

That you need a discussion how to reduce big corporation influence then it for example comes to lobbying and campaign donations.

While people also need to make their voices heard and organize to counter the destructive influence of the fossil fuel companies. Like for example that thousands of students are now participating in school strike across the globe.

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...ounder-greta-thunberg-tells-un-climate-summit

You also for example have this inspiring video from Belgium.

 
When you start with previously concentrated hydrocarbons (i.e. "coal") your cost of production doesn't include the additional cost of concentrating non-concentrated hydrocarbons (i.e. "atmospheric CO[SUB]2[/SUB]).

I'm not saying that it cannot be done - or even that it might not be a good thing to do - but I do question the economics of doing it. So far I haven't seen any "cradle to grave" economic analysis that shows that "electric cars" are actually less "energy intensive" or actually produce less pollution than really efficient gasoline powered cars (and I include "advanced hybrids" in that category) let alone to show that the "lifetime purchase and operating cost" of "electrics" are lower than for really efficient gasoline powered cars (same caveat).

An interesting statistic concerns the pollution benefits of buses vs private cars. Most (IC powered) buses emit around 20 (or more) times more pollution per vehicle than does a private car. However the capacity of a bus is around 40 passengers which means that the pollution per passenger is only one half that of a private car with only its driver as a passenger. This, the supporters of mass transit will tell you, means that we should switch to buses because one bus produces less pollution per passenger than does a private car with only its own driver in it.

Unfortunately what those people sort of neglect to deal with is the fact that, over the course of a full day for most transit systems the average passenger load per bus is LESS than 20 which means that in actuality, the pollution per passenger is HIGHER for (IC powered) buses than it is for private cars.

For major urban areas, overhead wires powering buses are practical and, if regenerative braking is used very feasible. For less travelled areas, the overhead wires are not as feasible but there is always the possibility that something like the GYROBUS (but with better technology) could well work. For "interurban" transportation, again, overhead wire powered trains are practical.

[ASIDE - During the 1950s the BC Electric company ran interurban trains from Vancouver to Chilliwack (about 60 miles) using overhead trolley wires. Those trains used regenerative braking and the energy produced through braking was used to "run up" a massive flywheel/generator station which could then feed power back into the overhead lines when needed. The whole system was designed so that the load on the electrical grid was constant throughout the day - that is to say, at night when fewer trains were run the power draw was used to speed up the flywheel/generator which gradually lost power during the day only to be "recharged" then next night. This was, in effect, the application of the "Gyrobus" concept on a massive scale.]

I agree that in the near term serial hybrids will be the likely path, but still think that the energy will be carried as hydrocarbon fuels, regardless of source.
As to the man made fuels vs the one from stored hydrocarbons, finding and extracting oil is getting more expensive, and will only get worse.
On the other side of the coin, man made fuels seem to be on a downward trend.
In October of this year Exxon's CEO came out in favor of a carbon tax,
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brandi...tention-but-not-outright-praise/#4f9b2d276189
The only reason that is plausible, is that Exxon already has a plan to profit from a carbon tax.
Imagine, if all of Exxon's competitors, were paying a carbon tax for selling fuel, but they were not?
 
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