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Early voter turnout in 26 states exceeds the 2014 total early vote

Acadia said:
I am very much implying it. Been watching it happen since Trump won.
The Left is very violent.

*cue "but Heather Heyer*
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Well, aside from a White Supremacist shooting up a Synagogue full of worshipers, a Nazi running over and killing a peaceful protester, a Trump supporter mailing pipe bombs to Democrats, a Republican House candidate beating up a reporter and a President praising that beating, sure, the violence is coming from the left.
 
Cardinal said:
Nate Silver doing a primal scream:

"YOU CAN'T CONCLUDE ANYTHING FROM EARLY VOTING!!!!"
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For the most part that is true. That said normally the voting in midterms are low and in early voting the Repubs tend to show up in larger numbers, this year is different, with large numbers of voters showing up in early voting and while overall the Repubs are leading in many areas the Dems are not far behind and some races are now far closer than predicted. Here in Texas Sessions is in the fight of his life and it is now considered a toss up. Beto and Cruz have now closed the gap to just a few points and there is obvious panic setting in in the Cruz camp. It"ll depend on how many voters showing on Tuesday, but if the swing continues Sessions may be toast and it will be anyone's guess with Cruz. We shall see but if I were a Republican I would more than a little nervous.
Prediction: Trump will blame the Press and Illegal Voters for the GOP loses next week, only his Sheep still believe his schtick any longer, as it will always be.
Next is the countdown to 2020 and ensuring that Donald cannot do any more damage to the Nation.
 
Casper said:
For the most part that is true. That said normally the voting in midterms are low and in early voting the Repubs tend to show up in larger numbers, this year is different, with large numbers of voters showing up in early voting and while overall the Repubs are leading in many areas the Dems are not far behind and some races are now far closer than predicted. Here in Texas Sessions is in the fight of his life and it is now considered a toss up. Beto and Cruz have now closed the gap to just a few points and there is obvious panic setting in in the Cruz camp. It"ll depend on how many voters showing on Tuesday, but if the swing continues Sessions may be toast and it will be anyone's guess with Cruz. We shall see but if I were a Republican I would more than a little nervous.
Prediction: Trump will blame the Press and Illegal Voters for the GOP loses next week, only his Sheep still believe his schtick any longer, as it will always be.
Next is the countdown to 2020 and ensuring that Donald cannot do any more damage to the Nation.
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Silver would say that, regardless of how enthusiastic Democrats may be, they can only vote once. Just because they vote early doesn't mean they can vote again on November 6, which is why 538 people say that early voters are "pillaging" from election day.
 
Cardinal said:
Silver would say that, regardless of how enthusiastic Democrats may be, they can only vote once. Just because they vote early doesn't mean they can vote again on November 6, which is why 538 people say that early voters are "pillaging" from election day.
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True, Election Day turn out may be less than in 2014 due to just more people voting by mail. But the 2018 voter turnout is ALREADY higher than the total 2014 turnout so it isn’t JUST a shift in voting method. We don’t know what it means yet, but yeah, Texas Republicans are probably a bit nervous.
 
Cardinal said:
Well, aside from a White Supremacist shooting up a Synagogue full of worshipers, a Nazi running over and killing a peaceful protester, a Trump supporter mailing pipe bombs to Democrats, a Republican House candidate beating up a reporter and a President praising that beating, sure, the violence is coming from the left.
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You're right, of course; no Democrat shot up a baseball field full of Republican Congressmen; no Antifa thugs stomped an old man's head into a sidewalk for carrying a US flag, to say nothing of all of their other beatings, firebombings, etc.; no Lefty sent ricin-filled envelopes to Republicans, the Pentagon, Trump, to "send a message"; no deranged Lefty threatened Susan Collins with "rape," all the while the Democratic standard-bearer stated that "civility" cannot be had until Democrats regain power.
 
Barnacle said:
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carlin%20on%20conservatives.jpg
 
Skeptic Bob said:
True, Election Day turn out may be less than in 2014 due to just more people voting by mail. But the 2018 voter turnout is ALREADY higher than the total 2014 turnout so it isn’t JUST a shift in voting method. We don’t know what it means yet, but yeah, Texas Republicans are probably a bit nervous.
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If you have a commute and want to get it from the horse's mouth, you can listen to Nate Silver talk about the early vote here:

Politics Podcast: No, The Model Doesn’t Care About The Early Vote

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-no-the-model-doesnt-care-about-the-early-vote/

"Early voting has begun! In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver explains why he doesn’t use early voting data to help forecast elections: Polls are more reliable, given that we don’t know all of the factors involved in early voting."
 
Cardinal said:
Silver would say that, regardless of how enthusiastic Democrats may be, they can only vote once. Just because they vote early doesn't mean they can vote again on November 6, which is why 538 people say that early voters are "pillaging" from election day.
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I disagree, in fact it simply means more people are voting overall and that if that case continues on Tuesday the Dems will do very well since the numbers are on their side. We shall see in less than a week.
 
Casper said:
I disagree, in fact it simply means more people are voting overall and that if that case continues on Tuesday the Dems will do very well since the numbers are on their side. We shall see in less than a week.
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We'll see, but I agree with the basic premise that people are overthinking the significance of early voting. If you end up being right and it really does mean that Democrats are swamping the ballots, then I will never have been happier to eat crow.
 
Verax said:
Will be interesting to see if the new voters tilt heavy left or right. You would assume left but ya never know. Trump's replacement of a dog whistle with a bullhorn might have shook every racist and asshole in the country to the polls.
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Ideologically committed racists and fanatics always vote. A surge in first-time or infrequent voters almost certainly indicates an uptick in young and minority voters. But the early vote isn't necessarily indicative of anything.

I think things are going to go well on Tuesday.
 
Verax said:
I would venture to guess that most liberal youth that vote are far more intelligent than the majority of Republicans.
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And you would be wrong about that as well.
 
Fletch said:
Id say its pretty silly when your chart lists what you consider young people those 18-49.
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If you took a smaller sample of the youngest it would be even more striking.
 
Verax said:
If you took a smaller sample of the youngest it would be even more striking.
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How do you know? In a 31-year age group, the most accurate responses could easily have come from older half.

Like the early voting numbers, you're just seeing what you want.

My sense is thar people like you, who set themselves up with false expectations based on faulty assumptions, are far more likely to cry that there was some kind of cheating if the results don't stack up the way they expect.
 
Harshaw said:
How do you know? In a 31-year age group, the most accurate responses could easily have come from older half.

Like the early voting numbers, you're just seeing what you want.

My sense is thar people like you, who set themselves up with false expectations based on faulty assumptions, are far more likely to cry that there was some kind of cheating if the results don't stack up the way they expect.
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It's an educated opinion based on many things. When you see a trend like this you expect it to be somewhat linear and with age as the determining variable older = less able and younger = more able. This should probably be fairly consistent from one end to the other unless there is some reason for a more competent bump in the middle??? There is none so no. Younger people are more tech savvy. Millennials are far more politically engaged. Millennials are masters of social media, they grew up with it and have known it all their lives.

Sorry but I made predictions based on past and current observations. My opinions often aren't very popular because I state what I see, not what I want to see. It just so happens that what I see lately is exactly what I want.

Oh and there was cheating before, Hillary and the DNC cheated Bernie. We will see with the Mueller report if Trump cheated Hillary, and the country. We'll also see if Kemp cheated Abrams enough to sway the election.

Btw, I'm always right so arguing is futile. :lol:
 
Barnacle said:
Yep; the young voters on the left have no brains and have to be told by Hollywood who to vote for ... :lol:
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Um...yeah because older voters would never, ever vote for a celebrity who appeared at Wrestle Mania and starred in his own realty television show.

I would argue that it is because of the younger voters and protesters throughout history that the old haven't been allowed to completely crap all over civilization. This generation has not only grown up in a post-9/11 environment of exaggerated fear where the "wise" adults have offered them never-ending warfare, but also in a world where the "wise" adults created the economic privilege of the 1%, exacerbated Global Warming and called it a hoax, argued that tomato paste is a vegetable, has adamantly refused to lock down crazies from legally purchasing firearms, and define politics only though extremist rhetoric. Yeah...young voters have no brains and should be thankful.
 
Verax said:
It's an educated opinion based on many things. When you see a trend like this you expect it to be somewhat linear and with age as the determining variable older = less able and younger = more able. This should probably be fairly consistent from one end to the other unless there is some reason for a more competent bump in the middle??? There is none so no. Younger people are more tech savvy. Millennials are far more politically engaged. Millennials are masters of social media, they grew up with it and have known it all their lives.

Sorry but I made predictions based on past and current observations. My opinions often aren't very popular because I state what I see, not what I want to see. It just so happens that what I see lately is exactly what I want.

Oh and there was cheating before, Hillary and the DNC cheated Bernie. We will see with the Mueller report if Trump cheated Hillary, and the country. We'll also see if Kemp cheated Abrams enough to sway the election.

Btw, I'm always right so arguing is futile. :lol:
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See, you're just assuming, for no discernible reason, that older, more experienced people would be less able to make the determination than younger, LESS experienced people.

It's a deeply silly, even counterfactual assumption, but you make it, for whatever reason.

Like I said, people who think like that have the hardest time dealing with it when things don't go as they expect, and invent reasons, even conspiracy theories, as to why it didn't. But the problem was their own silly, even arrogant assumptions. :shrug:
 
Verax said:
Will be interesting to see if the new voters tilt heavy left or right. You would assume left but ya never know. Trump's replacement of a dog whistle with a bullhorn might have shook every racist and asshole in the country to the polls.
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You shouldn't be so hard on the loony leftists. :mrgreen:
 
NeverTrumpGOP said:
This is crazy!




Early voter turnout in 26 states exceeds the 2014 total early vote
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It's only cray-cray if one willingly ignores the facts...:mrgreen:

The surge in early voting this year reflects the growth of early voting nationwide. Thirty-seven states and the District of Columbia currently offer early voting without requiring an absentee excuse or justification. That, along with the process becoming easier in some states, has encouraged a lot more Americans to drive up to their local county commissioner’s office and cast a ballot. It’s also created a huge media storm around the surge in participation, and a thirst to draw early conclusions about the results of the races.
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https://www.vox.com/2018/11/3/18013760/surge-early-voting-explained
 
Harshaw said:
See, you're just assuming, for no discernible reason, that older, more experienced people would be less able to make the determination than younger, LESS experienced people.

It's a deeply silly, even counterfactual assumption, but you make it, for whatever reason.

Like I said, people who think like that have the hardest time dealing with it when things don't go as they expect, and invent reasons, even conspiracy theories, as to why it didn't. But the problem was their own silly, even arrogant assumptions. :shrug:
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LoL, you completely ignored my reasoning as though it didn't exist. You also seemed to have missed my next post that proves I'm right.

Experience is not everything, young buck.
 
Verax said:
LoL, you completely ignored my reasoning as though it didn't exist. You also seemed to have missed my next post that proves I'm right.

Experience is not everything, young buck.
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You didn't post any "reasoning"; you just piled on a stack of additional assumptions to bolster your first assumption. And most of it had very little to do with the point at hand. (Your "next post" indicated that in the sample tested, it's about even, without getting into the actual particulars of the test.)

I didn't say experience was everything. I simply told you one reason why your blanket assumption that older people have "less" ability to discern fact from opinion than do younger people is silly. And when I say "silly," I mean laugh-out-loud funny.

But, as you're fully expecting not just a blue wave on Tuesday, but a blue tsunami, we'll see how you handle things if you're wrong.
 
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