- Joined
- Oct 12, 2017
- Messages
- 6,805
- Reaction score
- 1,069
- Location
- Canada
- Gender
- Male
- Political Leaning
- Centrist
Did you know that the actual voting results were within the margins of error of the results that almost all of the polls were reporting?
Do you know what "margin of error" actually means?
Did you know that almost all of the widely publicized polls were reporting on a "national poll" basis? (Because those are easy to do and the public thinks that it understands them.)
Did you know that a "national poll" is almost useless in predicting the actual result in individual polling districts?
Did you know that the Presidency of the United States of America is NOT decided on a "national poll" basis?
Those people who claimed to predict the outcome of the Electoral College selection process by using "national poll" results should be investigated for their potential use of hallucinogenic substances in public.
Did you know that NONE of the "national" POLLS reported anything other than the percentage of voters nationwide that favoured particular candidates?
Did you know that it was the people who ANALYZED the results of the "national" polls who told you that those polls said something that they didn't actually say?
People who think that a poll conducted today is going to tell you what is going to happen in three weeks are generally known as "unsophisticated" (or "average voters" if you prefer).
People who don't know what a trend line (First Order Regression) is and/or how to interpret one are generally known as "likely to be wrong" (or "average voters" if you prefer).
People who don't know what a rate of change of a trend line (Second Order Regression) is and/or how to interpret one are generally known as "likely to be wrong" (or "average voters" if you prefer).
People who don't know what a rate of change of the rate of change of a trend line (Third Order Regression) is and/or how to interpret one are generally known as "likely to be wrong" (or "average voters" if you prefer).
The "problem with polls" isn't "the date", it's the fact that to actually understand what the polls mean you have to do some thinking for yourself - and (overstating the case slightly) the "average voter" doesn't like to strain their brain much past the effort of telling the difference between a big "R" or a big "D" following the name of the candidates.
Do you know that polls said Hillary-Billary was gonna be POTUS?
Do you know what they say now about the mid-terms?
Do you know how many people parade around waiving polls for this and polls for that, claiming these polls mean something?
Watch.