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Small business optimism surges to highest level ever, topping previous record under Reagan

OldFatGuy said:
Prove it with actual numbers, because it isn't true either.
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"Actual numbers" were provided to you in the OP, along with the source. Most small business owners don't share your pessimism.
 
poweRob said:
You've whined for evidence. I brought evidence. You make claims and voila... no evidence. You going to bring anything other than your opinion? I mean I'm sure you can go to the CATO Institute or the Heritage Foundation and snap up some convenient talking points to take all credit away from Obama.
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I am not taking away credit from Obama. Please note I did not say he had nothing to to with the recovery in his first term. Your second link did not have anything of substance regarding the economy with the start of his second term. You brought no evidence.
 
Taylor said:
"Actual numbers" were provided to you in the OP, along with the source. Most small business owners don't share your pessimism.
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Those are from a damn survey. Where do you get the audacity to claim they are "Actual Numbers?" Surveys are samplings with theories extrapolated therefrom. Samplings are the easiest skew in town.

The reality of empty storefronts is not pessimism. The contraction of RE contracts is not pessimism. The excess of credit card and student debt are not pessimism. The over exuberance of the equities market is not pessimism. The closing price deflation of Class A residential units is not pessimism. The drop in building permits is not pessimism. The increased inflationary volatility in commodity markets is not pessimism. These are reality, along with 100's of other real time indicators. For the long run, a correction, even one that becomes a short term recession, is healthy for all markets in the marketplace. Pessimism is the prediction of a long term Depression or you being without a job or suffering substantial underemployment.

Real property transactions are the best indicator of market terms. Following decline in RE transactions, and contractions of pricing are concurrent consumer goods transaction, meaning small business sales, and they are contracting. This nation has not fully recovered for the 1988 RE crash, and all we've seen are short cycles of geographic centric minor increases along with inflation of prices in areas of gentrification, or regions with spot demand.

Optimism is faith in the underlying strengths of our economy, resources, and our most resilient resource, the American people. None of which has anything to do with politics or presidential politics. Both of which are obstructionist.

Here's an example of presidential theorizing. Obama, during his third year in office, when beginning his campaign for his second term, cited among his accomplishments the turn around of the Las Vegas real property market. What actually happened, thousands of foreclosed and never finished living units for both local workers and retirees, especially the latter, that had been abandoned under water, foreclosed, and the number of transactions had bottomed out to zero during Bush's last term in office. Now for reality, independent investors started buying those units, rehabbing or finishing at lower grade, for investment rental units. When this process commenced, prices were 10¢ on the dollar. Units that cost $250k to build, selling for twice that, could be bought from banks in possession for $25k, a year later 35k. 3-4 years later the investor received a return equal to capital investment, and after concurrent maintenance all future rents were profit. This wasn't presidential polices at work, this was market realists making money by investing and painting. When local government realized the change in the marketplace, it instituted a rental tax to be paid by landlords. Within a year, transactions collapsed by 85%. Inventory of banks in possession foreclosures increased as rapidly as the number of transactions decreased. The rental tax was eliminated six months later. Local governmental obstructionism kicked itself in the teeth. The dental work hurt severely.

Nice try, good show, but no cigar.

Obama had nothing to do with the Las Vegas recovery. It was just a talking point for his campaign. He had much bigger fish to fry, and the American public showed little understanding of what was at stake, or how his responses and actions couldn't have been better. He dumbed down for the audience.

You want actual numbers, work for them. You made an outrageous claim based on surveys and theories as if they were actual facts. You were dishonest from the outset. You want a full refutation, first give me real numbers to be refuted.
 
EnigmaO01 said:
Thank you Obama! Just hope Trump doesn't sabotage it!
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/facepalm, Trying reading the OP rather than the headline and commenting. You would have noticed:

U.S. small business optimism surged to a record in August as the tax cuts and deregulation efforts of President Donald Trump and the Republican-led Congress led to more sales, hiring and investment, according to a survey by the National Federation of Independent Business.
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Notice it says the efforts of President Trump, not President Obama. I do have to agree with the second part of your post, I hope Trump doesn't screw it up. If he would drop the tariff talk, stay off Twitter, and continue deregulating then he would practically sail to reelection in 2020. Sadly, he is liable to make several hundred ridiculous comments by then and piss enough people off to vote him out.
 
OldFatGuy said:
Those are from a damn survey. Where do you get the audacity to claim they are "Actual Numbers?" Surveys are samplings with theories extrapolated therefrom. Samplings are the easiest skew in town.
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That's what the thread is about!! How do you measure optimism if not by a survey??


OldFatGuy said:
Optimism is faith in the underlying strengths of our economy, resources, and our most resilient resource, the American people.
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And as much as you may like it to be so, you can't measure "faith" using what you call "real numbers". You do it with surveys that look at expectations, confidence, and other such indicators. In this case, it's expectations for growth opportunities and plans to do so.

OldFatGuy said:
You want actual numbers, work for them. You made an outrageous claim based on surveys and theories as if they were actual facts. You were dishonest from the outset. You want a full refutation, first give me real numbers to be refuted.
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Again, the numbers are in the OP. Yes, it is a survey. There is a 1 in 20 chance that optimism in the general population is not quite as high as is being reported. But to deny the optimism of others altogether because the Ace Hardware by your house closed down, your credit card bills are high, and you're upset because the brick-and-mortar business isn't what it used to be in 1988 is quite simply your own pessimism talking.
 
Sabre said:
OK, just for fact, I do not lie - period. I said I cut and pasted that from your avatar panel and I did - here is your avatar panel and anyone can see it on all your posts:

View attachment 67240197

Right below your screen name is the words "FAILED INTELLIGENTSIA!" exactly as I said I cut and pasted them from. Do not ever accuse me of lying again, maybe in your world that is something your are used to, but I will always tell the truth no mater how blunt it is. Now go ahead and deny those words are not the ones I mentioned in post #49, just remember it's there for everyone to see and they can see that there was no edit, it is as it comes directly from you own avatar panel......
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Awe how cute. I busted you. And you lied over pretty much nothing and now you are doubling down. Dude... I quoted you before and after your edit. It wasn't a big deal and yet you still choose to lie about it. I know all you wanted to do was be more specific... so why lie about something so irrelevant?
 
OpportunityCost said:
I guess you forgot how to use language that didn't indicate it would fail soon.

Can the ****ing conscension. You don't rate using it.

Sent from my SM-S727VL using Tapatalk
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It's how you operate so don't get so triggered when it comes flying back at you.
 
poweRob said:
It's how you operate so don't get so triggered when it comes flying back at you.
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Rob, it amazes me how much you can believe your own bull****. Contribute meaningfully or walk away, my money is on walk away because you never contribute meaningfully.
 
OpportunityCost said:
Rob, it amazes me how much you can believe your own bull****. Contribute meaningfully or walk away, my money is on walk away because you never contribute meaningfully.
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That would really hurt... if your opinion on anything actually carried any weight.
 
Taylor said:
That's what the thread is about!! How do you measure optimism if not by a survey??



And as much as you may like it to be so, you can't measure "faith" using what you call "real numbers". You do it with surveys that look at expectations, confidence, and other such indicators. In this case, it's expectations for growth opportunities and plans to do so.


Again, the numbers are in the OP. Yes, it is a survey. There is a 1 in 20 chance that optimism in the general population is not quite as high as is being reported. But to deny the optimism of others altogether because the Ace Hardware by your house closed down, your credit card bills are high, and you're upset because the brick-and-mortar business isn't what it used to be in 1988 is quite simply your own pessimism talking.
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You don't measure optimism. Speculation is in the OP, not real numbers. You don't measure sentiments for accuracy. You don't base economic theories on sentiment survey results. They are reserved for illustrating possible advertising and marketing trends.

You used the wrong toolset for the job you wanted to perform. There is no right toolset. You have now learned why economists are known for analyzing the past, not paths of the future.
 
poweRob said:
Awe how cute. I busted you. And you lied over pretty much nothing and now you are doubling down. Dude... I quoted you before and after your edit. It wasn't a big deal and yet you still choose to lie about it. I know all you wanted to do was be more specific... so why lie about something so irrelevant?
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As said, I do not lie, perhaps the only real liar here is the one quoted here. It always seems odd to me how lefties, when up against something they do not agree with, resort to personal insults and/or accusations of lying. But, I guess that's just what they do when they have nothing else yet want to make themselves seem relevant. Congratulations you are now number 3.
 
RetiredUSN said:
New start up small businesses everywhere are sulking because of the tax breaks. :lamo
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Brilliant. No one cares about tax breaks if they aren't making money. Show me new businesses that do make money while still new. Most new businesses fail. New businesses hope to make their nut, they rarely if ever pay taxes. A tax break in of no value for new businesses.

Local fee breaks from local governments would be welcome from small businesses. But then, local governments would have spilled the beans about frivolous, greedy, money grabbing schemes of local government.
 
OldFatGuy said:
You don't measure optimism.
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Why not?

OldFatGuy said:
You don't measure sentiments for accuracy. You don't base economic theories on sentiment survey results.
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Economic theory is rife with with "sentiment" - it's a social science involving human behavior. Human behavior is very much determined by "sentiment".

OldFatGuy said:
You used the wrong toolset for the job you wanted to perform. There is no right toolset. You have now learned why economists are known for analyzing the past, not paths of the future.
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Right, so now we're down to "Nobody is optimistic about the future because OldFatGuy says we can't ask them if they're optimistic about the future and report what they say"
 
Common Sense 1 said:
More positive news on the economy. People are feeling good! Business is good.

Small business optimism surges to highest level ever, topping previous record under Reagan

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/11/small-business-optimism-surges-to-highest-ever.html

U.S. small business optimism surged to a record in August as the tax cuts and deregulation efforts of President Donald Trump and the Republican-led Congress led to more sales, hiring and investment, according to a survey by the National Federation of Independent Business.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index jumped to 108.8 last month, the highest level ever recorded in the survey's 45-year history and above the previous record of 108 in 1983, set during the second year of Ronald Reagan's presidency. The August figure was up from a 107.9 reading in July.
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Any idea why dons first year was the worst job creation for 6 years?
Creation gas been around 200000 a month for years
Economies great for the 0.1% like me though
 
OldFatGuy said:
You don't measure optimism. Speculation is in the OP, not real numbers. You don't measure sentiments for accuracy. You don't base economic theories on sentiment survey results. They are reserved for illustrating possible advertising and marketing trends.

You used the wrong toolset for the job you wanted to perform. There is no right toolset. You have now learned why economists are known for analyzing the past, not paths of the future.
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I asked elsewhere why was dons first year the worst job creation in 6?
 
OldFatGuy said:
Brilliant. No one cares about tax breaks if they aren't making money. Show me new businesses that do make money while still new. Most new businesses fail. New businesses hope to make their nut, they rarely if ever pay taxes. A tax break in of no value for new businesses.

Local fee breaks from local governments would be welcome from small businesses. But then, local governments would have spilled the beans about frivolous, greedy, money grabbing schemes of local government.
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A tax break is never of value?

New businesses don't make money?

Jesus Christ dude!

My 1 man home repair business alone paid in 30 - 40 thousand a year to the IRS depending on how much I felt like doing, the scope of work, and how large the contracts were that I wanted to chase.
 
Taylor said:
Why not?

Economic theory is rife with with "sentiment" - it's a social science involving human behavior. Human behavior is very much determined by "sentiment".
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Because it is a useless deflection from reality. Only guaranteeing job security for those who espouse this nonsense. Social sciences are not science, they are arts, or in this case a guessing game.

Taylor said:
Right, so now we're down to "Nobody is optimistic about the future because OldFatGuy says we can't ask them if they're optimistic about the future and report what they say"
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:rofl Of course, falling back on an ad hominem lie signifying desperation should have been predictable with my Magic 8 ball. If you knew how to read, you'd have understood I spoke optimistically for the long run, and that I view a correction as healthy. But no, your ego is injured, and this is all you've got to offer.
 
Cardinal said:
So why hasn't Trump's approval risen, do you suppose? The answer is simple: only Trump supporters credit Trump with that, which is something of a waste of goodwill because Trump had their votes anyway. Independents and left-of-center voters know that Trump came in on a trend that started well before him.
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I'm sure glad you're so confident about that.
 
Buzz62 said:
I'm sure glad you're so confident about that.
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You're basically forced to choose between two explanations:

1)Independents aren't crediting Trump with the positive economic numbers because they understand that Trump entered on a trend that started years before him.
2)Independents are crediting Trump with the the positive economic numbers, but that's not enough to make up for the chaos, scandals, corruption and the multiple criminal investigations into the Trump Campaign, Trump Foundation and multiple Trump associates.

Either way, it's evident that the popular "it's the economy, stupid" axiom isn't the equivalent of God Mode.
 
RetiredUSN said:
A tax break is never of value?

New businesses don't make money?

Jesus Christ dude!

My 1 man home repair business alone paid in 30 - 40 thousand a year to the IRS depending on how much I felt like doing, the scope of work, and how large the contracts were that I wanted to chase.
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There was no Christ, no one named Jesus lived in Mexico 2000 years ago. (sorry, I couldn't help myself) And I am not a dude. I've been riding horses since age 3, albeit with my father, grandfather or one of my uncles in the saddle holding me back then. I can still land on my derrière and make a fool out myself. Maybe that's why they say "no fool like an old fool." I've been getting lots of practice.

There's always work for plumbers. You're experience is the rarity. The IRS says less than 7% of new C corporations earn sufficient income to pay non discretionary taxes the first year, less than 14% of pass through tax structures earn enough to gain tax liabilities their first year. Less than 20% of all new businesses survive the first year.

Technically, your 1 man operation is not a business, you are an independent contractor. Semantics. However your experience is minimal and anecdotal at best, but I think more highly of you for having your feet on firm ground, compared to most of the self proclaimed analysts out there. Don't preclude the larger experience from your singular success when determining the value of tax cuts. Ultimately, tax cuts and increases are money management tools, and what counts in the end is the buying power of currency. The greatest set of beneficiaries for this tax cut is the 20%ers, not new businesses with principals hoping to become 20%ers. Something for you to consider.

Technically, I can make a case for my father's income of $3,800 a year in 1949 and buying a custom built house for $3,600 (which is what he did, with my maternal grandfather as his partner), being greater than a fellow living here today, earning $250k annually buying that same house for $1.26 mil. Do you understand?
 
Cardinal said:
You're basically forced to choose between two explanations:

1)Independents aren't crediting Trump with the positive economic numbers because they understand that Trump entered on a trend that started years before him.
2)Independents are crediting Trump with the the positive economic numbers, but that's not enough to make up for the chaos, scandals, corruption and the multiple criminal investigations into the Trump Campaign, Trump Foundation and multiple Trump associates.

Either way, it's evident that the popular "it's the economy, stupid" axiom isn't the equivalent of God Mode.
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OR
3) The Democrats run some moron like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez...and default the election.
 
OldFatGuy said:
Social sciences are not science, they are arts, or in this case a guessing game.
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Yes, I'm sure they seem that way to a lot of people who don't understand them. Like voodoo or magic.
 
OldFatGuy said:
There was no Christ, no one named Jesus lived in Mexico 2000 years ago. (sorry, I couldn't help myself) And I am not a dude. I've been riding horses since age 3, albeit with my father, grandfather or one of my uncles in the saddle holding me back then. I can still land on my derrière and make a fool out myself. Maybe that's why they say "no fool like an old fool." I've been getting lots of practice.

There's always work for plumbers. You're experience is the rarity. The IRS says less than 7% of new C corporations earn sufficient income to pay non discretionary taxes the first year, less than 14% of pass through tax structures earn enough to gain tax liabilities their first year. Less than 20% of all new businesses survive the first year.

Technically, your 1 man operation is not a business, you are an independent contractor. Semantics. However your experience is minimal and anecdotal at best, but I think more highly of you for having your feet on firm ground, compared to most of the self proclaimed analysts out there. Don't preclude the larger experience from your singular success when determining the value of tax cuts. Ultimately, tax cuts and increases are money management tools, and what counts in the end is the buying power of currency. The greatest set of beneficiaries for this tax cut is the 20%ers, not new businesses with principals hoping to become 20%ers. Something for you to consider.

Technically, I can make a case for my father's income of $3,800 a year in 1949 and buying a custom built house for $3,600 (which is what he did, with my maternal grandfather as his partner), being greater than a fellow living here today, earning $250k annually buying that same house for $1.26 mil. Do you understand?
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You really should keep your mouth shut instead of spewing ignorance.

I was a Sole Proprietor with a state contractors license...…….. and was licensed to operate my business in the 4 local cities.

Ask the IRS if I was a business...……...Geeees!
 
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