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August Non-Farm Payrolls: 201K; 190K Exp. Average Hourly Earnings 2.9%; 2.7% Exp. UE Rate 3.9%

Common Sense 1 said:
Do you know the unemployment rate is at 3.9%

And then this, The Federal Reserve considers a base unemployment rate (the U-3 rate) of 5.0 to 5.2 percent as "full employment" in the economy. The recovery has now achieved that level, known technically as the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment, or NAIRU.

The economy is booming but some think the economy is in trouble? :doh
Click to expand...

It's doing well, true. Has been for some years now (began well before Trump, just something I think needs to be said often), but even when booming, it is possible to see trouble down the road. While presidents have little effect on the economy, increasing and creating new tariffs is one way to slow it all down, if not crash it.
 
washunut said:
A few things:

- I feel most of Trump's tweets are over the top and not worth reading.

- This is 2018 not 2012. The level of unemployment using either U-3 or U-6 is materially lower now.

- Did not realize that you took everything Trump said as the truth. You did not put in your original post that this was a trump tweet from 2012. Trying to use that as cover.
Admit you did not tell the truth and let us move on.
Click to expand...
You realize her link clearly stated,

"Twitter.com realDonaldTrump"

Right?
 
Amelia said:
And I immediately pushed it toward devolution. Ooops.

But, man, when good numbers come out, it's so hard to resist pointing out where Trump trashed the kinds numbers he now brags about. (Or where he brags about numbers as being historic when they don't even match numbers Obama achieved, though this month that's not the case for the time he made that tweet.)
Click to expand...

Here is the problem, CONTEXT!! Obama took an economy that was coming out of recession and with a Democratic Congress saw employment go from 146 million down to 138 million then take credit for job creation back to the pre recession levels. Included in those numbers were record numbers of part time jobs created which obviously skewed the employment numbers upward. Part time jobs for economic reasons are people WANTING full time jobs but taking only what they could get. These numbers are indeed historic because they are mostly full time jobs and better paying ones.

Notice the Obama job creation

Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
Original Data Value

Series Id: LNS12032194
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Employment Level - Part-Time for Economic Reasons, All Industries
Labor force status: Employed
Type of data: Number in thousands
Age: 16 years and over
Hours at work: 1 to 34 hours
Reasons work not as scheduled: Economic reasons
Worker status/schedules: At work part time
Years: 2008 to 2018

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2008 4846 4902 4904 5220 5286 5540 5930 5851 6148 6690 7311 8029
2009 8046 8796 9145 8908 9113 9024 8891 9029 8847 8979 9114 9098
2010 8530 8936 9233 9178 8845 8577 8500 8800 9246 8837 8873 8935
2011 8470 8464 8645 8652 8576 8427 8281 8788 9166 8657 8447 8171
2012 8305 8238 7775 7913 8101 8072 8082 7974 8671 8203 8166 7943
2013 8151 8178 7722 7964 7937 8103 8099 7816 7764 7936 7718 7827
2014 7302 7304 7451 7516 7260 7425 7400 7169 7007 7031 6885 6817
2015 6820 6693 6653 6622 6643 6386 6234 6411 6025 5807 6159 6027
2016 5960 6021 6099 6027 6491 5751 5898 5977 5893 5955 5719 5554
2017 5776 5670 5500 5309 5268 5264 5236 5209 5148 4880 4851 4915
2018 4989 5160 5019 4985 4948 4743 4567
Click to expand...

When Trump made that statement most of the jobs being created were part time jobs as the spreadsheet shows. Those jobs are what you seem to be touting.
 
Conservative said:
Well not surprising more negativity and inability to celebrate success. WE are almost if not AT full employment, the number unemployed is at historic lows. Again I will celebrate success while you people whine and complain about seeing your radical agenda destroyed. What is it about liberalism that creates this kind of loyalty?
Click to expand...

Yes, when Trump is nominally in charge you want to celebrate success, but when Obama was having success Trump led the charge to try to talk it down.

When Obama was posting those numbers, I was annoyed, because the economy was in a solid recovery and I didn't want Democrats getting credit for it. Now the shoe is on the other foot, in more ways than one. Trump has been taking credit since day one for the economy he inherited from Obama. He has been bragging about numbers which he would have trashed Obama for, or in some cases like the last quarter's GDP he has been bragging about numbers as being historic when they don't even match the highest numbers Obama posted.

And NOW he's jerking us around with his trade wars. So we really could be heading toward some bad news, and with the amount of chaos he has injected and the debt Republicans have added, we don't have much wiggle room for fixing things if bad news hits us.


Sooooo .... yeah .... if you ever celebrated Obama's growth, I would be surprised. Did you?
 
Boo Radley said:
It's doing well, true. Has been for some years now (began well before Trump, just something I think needs to be said often), but even when booming, it is possible to see trouble down the road. While presidents have little effect on the economy, increasing and creating new tariffs is one way to slow it all down, if not crash it.
Click to expand...

Nicely said. Thank you.
 
My apologies to Hedgology for not waiting at least until page 3 to post the Trump twitter poop.


I'll go away now to think about what I did wrong.
 
Conservative said:
Well not surprising more negativity and inability to celebrate success. WE are almost if not AT full employment, the number unemployed is at historic lows. Again I will celebrate success while you people whine and complain about seeing your radical agenda destroyed. What is it about liberalism that creates this kind of loyalty?
Click to expand...
You're confusing "loyalty" with "objectivity". And as usual, interjected derogatory partisan politics into an economics discussion.
 
so the economy is booming along

why are we running trillion dollar federal deficits with a GDP of 4%? my understanding of economics is you only should have deficit spending during a recession and pay it back during the good times. Guess those conservative republicans don't understand that.

could it be all the borrowed money being injected into our economy is accelerating growth

sooner or later we will have to pay the piper
 
Common Sense 1 said:
The economy is booming but some think the economy is in trouble?
Click to expand...

The Economy has been booming for a long time now. We went below 5% well before Trump was in office, and we're currently breaking records as far as the length of an economic expansion. It's not a question of if the economy takes a dip it's a question of when. The fear is that these stupid pointless tax cuts and deficits we're running could very well be fueling an unnecessary bubble, and when that catches up with us we could have another disaster on our hands.
 
Amelia said:
Yes, when Trump is nominally in charge you want to celebrate success, but when Obama was having success Trump led the charge to try to talk it down.

When Obama was posting those numbers, I was annoyed, because the economy was in a solid recovery and I didn't want Democrats getting credit for it. Now the shoe is on the other foot, in more ways than one. Trump has been taking credit since day one for the economy he inherited from Obama. He has been bragging about numbers which he would have trashed Obama for, or in some cases like the last quarter's GDP he has been bragging about numbers as being historic when they don't even match the highest numbers Obama posted.

And NOW he's jerking us around with his trade wars. So we really could be heading toward some bad news, and with the amount of chaos he has injected and the debt Republicans have added, we don't have much wiggle room for fixing things if bad news hits us.


Sooooo .... yeah .... if you ever celebrated Obama's growth, I would be surprised. Did you?
Click to expand...

I posted data proving my point, when part time jobs for economic reasons are created what is there to celebrate? Obama's numbers were a disaster recognized by the electorate taking away the House in 10 and 12 then the entire Congress. If the economy was that great his agenda would have been supported

Celebrate success not mediocre economic performance

AS for the trade wars, how do you respond to the following

Here is why Trump will Win against China & Russia | GON Forum

You people are so brainwashed by an ideology that you cannot see reality and so full of hatred watching your ideology destroyed. Why such loyalty to liberalism?
 
Chomsky said:
You're confusing "loyalty" with "objectivity". And as usual, interjected derogatory partisan politics into an economics discussion.
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No, I am the one posting OBJECTIVE numbers, you buy the rhetoric which is opinions thus not objective. What isn't objective about the BLS numbers? Context matters and context is objectivity
 
MrWonka said:
The Economy has been booming for a long time now. We went below 5% well before Trump was in office, and we're currently breaking records as far as the length of an economic expansion. It's not a question of if the economy takes a dip it's a question of when. The fear is that these stupid pointless tax cuts and deficits we're running could very well be fueling an unnecessary bubble, and when that catches up with us we could have another disaster on our hands.
Click to expand...

So this is your idea of a booming economy?

Table 1.1.1. Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product
[Percent]
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Last Revised on: July 27, 2018 - Next Release Date August 29, 2018

Line 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Line
1 Gross domestic product -0.1 -2.5 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 1.6
Click to expand...
 
Conservative said:
I posted data proving my point, when part time jobs for economic reasons are created what is there to celebrate? Obama's numbers were a disaster recognized by the electorate taking away the House in 10 and 12 then the entire Congress. If the economy was that great his agenda would have been supported

Celebrate success not mediocre economic performance

AS for the trade wars, how do you respond to the following

Here is why Trump will Win against China & Russia | GON Forum

You people are so brainwashed by an ideology that you cannot see reality and so full of hatred watching your ideology destroyed. Why such loyalty to liberalism?
Click to expand...

You are factually incorrect and still misreading numbers I see my friend. Economic improvement began under Obama, and well under him. And he saw the bigger gains. But then again, presidents don't control the economy. People may vote on what the believe, but that doesn't make what they believe true.
 
rickc said:
so the economy is booming along

why are we running trillion dollar federal deficits with a GDP of 4%? my understanding of economics is you only should have deficit spending during a recession and pay it back during the good times. Guess those conservative republicans don't understand that.

could it be all the borrowed money being injected into our economy is accelerating growth

sooner or later we will have to pay the piper
Click to expand...

Because in your world PROJECTIONS are reality and actual data doesn't exist
 
Boo Radley said:
You are factually incorrect and still misreading numbers I see my friend. Economic improvement began under Obama, and well under him. And he saw the bigger gains. But then again, presidents don't control the economy. People may vote on what the believe, but that doesn't make what they believe true.
Click to expand...

Economic improvement? Is this your idea of success and at a cost of 9.3 trillion added to the debt

Table 1.1.1. Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product
[Percent]
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Last Revised on: July 27, 2018 - Next Release Date August 29, 2018

Line 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Line
1 Gross domestic product -0.1 -2.5 2.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 2.5 2.9 1.6
Click to expand...

It is your belief that 8 million part time jobs for economic reasons indicates a successful economic policy?

Presidents don't control the economy but Presidents do set the tone and Obama's was always negative, promoting class warfare and punishment for success meaning higher taxes and more regulations. when the number one issue is Global Warming and not the economy you have a President who is out of touch with reality and unqualifed for the job
 
Chomsky said:
You realize her link clearly stated,

"Twitter.com realDonaldTrump"

Right?
Click to expand...

No I did not notice that thanks.

That does not excuse using a statement about where we were regarding unemployment in 2012 as something that is true in 2018.

Is that what "debating" on this site has sunk to? Pretty sad, Right?
 
Conservative said:
Economic improvement? Is this your idea of success and at a cost of 9.3 trillion added to the debt



It is your belief that 8 million part time jobs for economic reasons indicates a successful economic policy?

Presidents don't control the economy but Presidents do set the tone and Obama's was always negative, promoting class warfare and punishment for success meaning higher taxes and more regulations. when the number one issue is Global Warming and not the economy you have a President who is out of touch with reality and unqualifed for the job
Click to expand...
Again a misdirection, and a failure to recognize that trump is continuing to add to the debt. So, keep going with the double standard deception.
 
Boo Radley said:
Again a misdirection, and a failure to recognize that trump is continuing to add to the debt. So, keep going with the double standard deception.
Click to expand...

Again context matters, how is Trump adding to the debt when his 2019 budget proposal is less than this year's and his predecessors? In addition context matters, 500 billion of this year's deficit is debt service on the debt Trump inherited, 9.3 trillion added by Obama. I suggest paying attention to context not leftwing radical opinions
 
Conservative said:
Well not surprising more negativity and inability to celebrate success. WE are almost if not AT full employment, the number unemployed is at historic lows. Again I will celebrate success while you people whine and complain about seeing your radical agenda destroyed. What is it about liberalism that creates this kind of loyalty?
Click to expand...
While this number isn't bad, it's nothing to write home about. Clinton had an average monthly job gain of 250,000 with a smaller population and fewer baby boomers retiring.

What is disappointing is that wages are only treading water with inflation.
 
Conservative said:
Again context matters, how is Trump adding to the debt when his 2019 budget proposal is less than this year's and his predecessors? In addition context matters, 500 billion of this year's deficit is debt service on the debt Trump inherited, 9.3 trillion added by Obama. I suggest paying attention to context not leftwing radical opinions
Click to expand...

His 2019 budget proposal is fantasy. It calls for massive cuts in necessary agencies. Example: a 30% cut in the State Dept. and equal cuts in EPA and other agencies. It's DOA, not a serious budget.
 
MTAtech said:
While this number isn't bad, it's nothing to write home about. Clinton had an average monthly job gain of 250,000 with a smaller population and fewer baby boomers retiring.

What is disappointing is that wages are only treading water with inflation.
Click to expand...

And the booming effect of the beginnings of e-commerce.
 
MrWonka said:
The Economy has been booming for a long time now. We went below 5% well before Trump was in office, and we're currently breaking records as far as the length of an economic expansion. It's not a question of if the economy takes a dip it's a question of when. The fear is that these stupid pointless tax cuts and deficits we're running could very well be fueling an unnecessary bubble, and when that catches up with us we could have another disaster on our hands.
Click to expand...
Exactly! And even worse, we're in a bubble without a safety net! And even worse worse, we have skyrocketing record debt and deficit. Oh woe is us, when the shyte hits the fan. It's not going to be pretty. Not at all.
 
MTAtech said:
While this number isn't bad, it's nothing to write home about. Clinton had an average monthly job gain of 250,000 with a smaller population and fewer baby boomers retiring.

What is disappointing is that wages are only treading water with inflation.
Click to expand...

Wow, "this number isn't bad"!! First positive or attempt at a positive comment and yes Clinton had 3.9% unemployment in 2000 which is pretty close to full employment just like now. Wages going up remains a good thing.
 
MTAtech said:
His 2019 budget proposal is fantasy. It calls for massive cuts in necessary agencies. Example: a 30% cut in the State Dept. and equal cuts in EPA and other agencies. It's DOA, not a serious budget.
Click to expand...

when did Obama ever submit a budget with cuts? You want to complain about the deficit and debt when a Republican is in the WH but then want only to raise taxes on the rich to pay for your spending increases showing just how poorly informed and educated you are as there will never be enough money from the rich in the form of taxes to fund your liberal spending appetite. Then are there ever any consequences to higher taxes in your world? Where will your state and local governments get their money to solve social problems if more tax dollars go to the federal govt.?

Not a serious budget is any budget that cuts spending so keep complaining about the deficit and debt ignoring that is it Congress and your party that truly doesn't give a damn about it
 
chuckiechan said:
Part of that feeling is the "Obama Hangover" among economists who were uncomfortable with the low interest rates that were for practical purposes, zero. Dropping interest rates is the principle weapon used in the early stages of recession and when you are at zero, the next step is negative interest rates which lead to deflation which is economic cannibalism. We don't want that. Today we have some headroom, and industry has plenty of room to grow as we make more things domestically that we used to buy from China.

Trump's issues are going to be inflation. We have to understand that when an economy loses it's "back door discount", things are going to cost more and wages will eventually catch up. You can bitch about his inconvenient truth, but it is what it is. Prior inflationary pressure was kept in check by quietly selling off our nation.

We have run this economy on "false economics", and citizens realize that some day we would have to pay the piper. We have enjoyed goods below cost dumped on us from China and elsewhere, we employ legal and illegal labor "below market rates", and we have outsourced work electronically so as to delete US worker without so much as a squeak. Politicians said they cared (with poll tested promises) but when it was time to act they did nothing. We have kept the peasants from showing up at state houses with torches and pitchforks by the use of generous social programs designed to teach them how to live small.

Joe and Mary Latte' have finally figured it out and their new theme song is "We aren't going to BOHICA, anymore!"
Click to expand...
I'm in general agreement here, but have to ask:

"To what items are you referring to, in that I bolded in your post?"
 
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