But a new study shows two other worrying consequences of the current bail system: more crime and false convictions. Specifically, the study by Arpit Gupta, Christopher Hansman, and Ethan Frenchman found that the assignment of money bail caused a 6 to 9 percent increase in recidivism (when people convicted of previous crimes reoffend) in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and a 12 percent increase in convictions in Philadelphia.
To measure this, the researchers exploited how different judges assign bail and the randomized nature through which judges are assigned cases. This created a natural experiment setting that allowed the researchers to largely isolate bail and its effects.
When they did that, they found bail had some pretty pronounced effects. What’s more, it seemed like the key factor here was whether someone was assigned bail, not how high bail was. So someone’s bail could be $100 instead of $500 or $5,000, and it still appeared to have an effect. “A key implication of this finding is that simply lowering required bail amounts will not ameliorate harms imposed by money bail,” the researchers write.
What’s more, the majority of those affected were very likely poor: “It is important to note that a large majority of arrestees in our sample qualified for representation by the public defender, and therefore are presumably indigent.”
In other words, poor people may plead guilty simply because it’s the only way they can get out of jail quickly — potentially leading to more false convictions as innocent people admit to crimes they didn’t commit. And these convictions, along with the effects of getting locked up in the first place, may also harm people’s abilities to obtain or keep a legal job, pushing them to turn to a life of crime to make ends meet.
There are some caveats to the study. As the researchers acknowledge, it’s possible that they’re not fully isolating bail and its effects. For instance, maybe the recidivism results are partly explained by the arrest record, since that might hinder someone’s ability to get a legal job.
Since the study was done exclusively in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, it’s also not clear if the findings apply nationwide. Perhaps there are technical differences in how bail and courts work in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, or throughout Pennsylvania — although, as the researchers note, bail works broadly similarly in these jurisdictions as it does in many other parts of the country, including New York City and Baltimore.
