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Trump-Backed Candidate Wins Ohio Special Election

Hedgology said:
Your source says the numbers are unofficial, so I don't know how they can be correct. I suppose if you'd like to assume they are correct, not much changes.
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Unofficial only in that the election won't be certified for 17 days. Certainly all provisionals won't end up being valid votes, but I don't see why there would be a largely inaccurate number of uncounted absentees and provisionals by the SoS.
 
Anagram said:
We'll see if there's actually a reverse of 2010 as it could very well be different, but this is definitely the exact attitude many Democrats had in the run up to the 2010 midterms after barely holding specials for the departure of John Murtha and Kirsten Gillabrand.
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I don't doubt that the Democrats will win back the Congress. It's pretty sad that it's this difficult for them.
 
Hedgology said:
Less than 1% of people in the district has requested an provisional ballot. I'm not sure why you're making numbers up

This is why you keep losing at the ballot box. You don't seem to understand the difference between winning and losing.
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There are 5028 absentee and 3435 provisional votes not yet counted as of the last numbers I've seen.

https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/1027025111738724352

Everyone understands winning is the goal, but a +14 R district, +11 for Trump, +36 R in the last congressional election turning out to a be a squeaker at <1% for the R who had the all the big guns including Trump and Pence and lots of outside money isn't exactly a great day for the GOP.
 
JasperL said:
There are 5028 absentee and 3435 provisional votes not yet counted as of the last numbers I've seen.

https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/1027025111738724352
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You haven't seen anything because those estimates are unofficial. They may or may not have been counted already. You're clinging onto false hope.

Everyone understands winning is the goal, but a +14 R district, +11 for Trump, +36 R in the last congressional election turning out to a be a squeaker at <1% for the R who had the all the big guns including Trump and Pence and lots of outside money isn't exactly a great day for the GOP.
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You're not saying anything that is meaningful because Ohio is a swing state, which means majority of the people in that state don't vote for candidates based on whether or not a D or R is attached ot the candidate.

A Green candidate almost has 1% of the vote FFS...
 
JasperL said:
There are 5028 absentee and 3435 provisional votes not yet counted as of the last numbers I've seen.

https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/1027025111738724352

Everyone understands winning is the goal, but a +14 R district, +11 for Trump, +36 R in the last congressional election turning out to a be a squeaker at <1% for the R who had the all the big guns including Trump and Pence and lots of outside money isn't exactly a great day for the GOP.
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LOL, Better than the day the dems are having. Whether it +14R or +.1R it's still one vote in Congress.
 
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JasperL said:
There are 5028 absentee and 3435 provisional votes not yet counted as of the last numbers I've seen.

https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/1027025111738724352

Everyone understands winning is the goal, but a +14 R district, +11 for Trump, +36 R in the last congressional election turning out to a be a squeaker at <1% for the R who had the all the big guns including Trump and Pence and lots of outside money isn't exactly a great day for the GOP.
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This GOP vote 🗳 for a few months should help pass important legislation out of the House.
 
Hedgology said:
Your source says the numbers are unofficial, so I don't know how they can be correct. I suppose if you'd like to assume they are correct, not much changes.
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The source is the Ohio Sec. of State official page for this election. There are no sources more reliable. Everyone else looks to this source, because it's here where they are officially tabulated.

If you can read, the answer as to why they're labeled "unofficial" is provided to you on the page:

The number of Ballots Cast, Outstanding Absentees and Outstanding Provisionals are provided to the Secretary of State’s office by the 88 county boards of elections on Election Night. These numbers are unofficial and merely provide a snapshot until the final results are certified in the weeks following the election. By state law, outstanding provisionals and absentees are not tabulated before the 10th day following the Election.
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Linc said:
This GOP vote &#55357;&#56819; for a few months should help pass important legislation out of the House.
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I can't see how they would pass anything so controversial in the last 3 months before the midterms that Balderson's seat would be within spitting distance of being the deciding vote. And this is especially since anything passing that narrowly with so many Republicans against would probably not be able to pass in a Senate where one Republican defection like Collins would sink it.
 
Hedgology said:
You don't win by falling short.



Prehaps, but this election isn't much of an indicator of what is going to come in November. Unless you're talking about a lot of close losses.
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Man, you're out of it.

The Democrats have already picked-up 37 state seats, flipped one governership, flipped two Congressional seats, and have consistently swung deep red districts gains of 15-23 points.

Not only that, they lead on the generic ballot by an average of eight, and there are 68 seats more competitive than the one the Republicans just barely hung on to; as well 115 seats more competitive than PA-17.
 
Hedgology said:
LMAO, "Blue Wave...."



None of the networks want to declare a winner. They figured it was too close to call for anyone to embarrass themselves; however, the New York Times has 100% reporting in all the counties in district 12 (Franklin, Delaware, Licking, Richland, Muskingun, Morrow, and Marion).

Screen-Shot-2018-08-07-at-11.29.38-PM.png


More results are probably going to come in, but I'm calling the final results: Troy Balderson (R-OH) 101,574, Danny O'Connor (D-OH) 99,820, Joe Manchik (G-OH)

Screen-Shot-2018-08-07-at-11.32.15-PM.png
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Yes, a Republican won by less than 1% in a R+11 district. But that's OK. I hope all Trump supporters spin it so, come November, I can see the sweet tears of Teabilly butthurt. LOL.
 
Bullseye said:
LOL, Better than the day the dems are having. Whether it +14R or +.1R it's still one vote in Congress.
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I don't know - in the big picture I would think the GOP might be a lot worried about today's results. November is a long ways off, so we'll see. I will say the republicans today are reminding me a lot of Democrats in the runup to the 2010 elections.

As to the bolded, that's correct, thanks for restating my point.
 
MovingPictures said:
Man, you're out of it.

The Democrats have already picked-up 37 state seats, flipped one governership, flipped two Congressional seats, and have consistently swung deep red districts gains of 15-23 points.
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Those are some nice minor victories the Democrats have achieved...

Not only that, they lead on the generic ballot by an average of eight, and there are 68 seats more competitive than the one the Republicans just barely hung on to; as well 115 seats more competitive than PA-17.
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Good luck with all that.
 
Hedgology said:
Those are some nice minor victories the Democrats have achieved...



Good luck with all that.
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:lamo

I'll save this post for election night for when the Democrats sweep an easy 40+ seats, and you eat your words.
 
Hedgology said:
LMAO, "Blue Wave...."



None of the networks want to declare a winner. They figured it was too close to call for anyone to embarrass themselves; however, the New York Times has 100% reporting in all the counties in district 12
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What is it about being a Trumpkin that makes you guys so clueless? The GOP candidate is hanging on to a .9% lead in a district Republicans have held for all but 2 of the last 80 years, after spending 2x as much on the race.

This is a bad outcome for Republicans.
 
Hedgology said:
You haven't seen anything because those estimates are unofficial. They may or may not have been counted already. You're clinging onto false hope.
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WTF are you talking about? Those are the official numbers from the Ohio SoS as of a few minutes ago, and I'm not clinging to any hope, just pointing out some FACTS about the outstanding votes. I've seen no indication or have reason to believe the D can get a 60-40 or so split out of the remaining votes, especially since provisional votes generally mean discarded votes.

You're not saying anything that is meaningful because Ohio is a swing state, which means majority of the people in that state don't vote for candidates based on whether or not a D or R is attached ot the candidate.
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LOL, that's not what being a 'swing state' means, and whether it's a swing STATE or not has exactly f all to do with this district. You're just making crap up.

A Green candidate almost has 1% of the vote FFS...
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Brilliant observation - you can read a table! Yeah for you! You earned a Gold star for the front of your notebook!
 
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MovingPictures said:
:lamo

I'll save this post for election night for when the Democrats sweep an easy 40+ seats, and you eat your words.
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You've confused me. I don't believe the Republicans will retain congress or the Senate.

But Democrats are such big losers, they can't win anything...
 
Hedgology said:
You're not saying anything that is meaningful because Ohio is a swing state, which means majority of the people in that state don't vote for candidates based on whether or not a D or R is attached ot the candidate.
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You must be joking. Republicans held this seat for 88 of the last 98 years and they always won by huge margins. This district was never even supposed to be in contention let alone hinging on provisional and absentee ballots even though the GOP threw everything they had and the kitchen sink at it.
 
LincolnRossiter said:
What is it about being a Trumpkin that makes you guys so clueless? The GOP candidate is hanging on to a .9% lead in a district Republicans have held for all but 2 of the last 80 years, after spending 2x as much on the race.

This is a bad outcome for Republicans.
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I love how you politicial analyst overthink everything, but yet, can't even predict who is going to win a local election.

It's a special election. No need to over-analysis anything regarding it.
 
Napoleon said:
You must be joking. Republicans held this seat for 88 of the last 98 years and they always won by huge margins. This district was never even supposed to be in contention let alone hinging on provisional and absentee ballots.
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If that is what you want to keep telling yourself to validate your shortcommings, go for it.

I'll just keep telling myself that it is a special election and that it doesn't mean anything...
 
Hedgology said:
I love how you politicial analyst overthink everything, but yet, can't even predict who is going to win a local election.

It's a special election. No need to over-analysis anything regarding it.
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I love how guys like you don’t think about anything at all. And FWIW, I assumed Balderson was going to win by 3-4. And that still would have been a bad result for the GOP.
 
Hedgology said:
I love how you politicial analyst overthink everything, but yet, can't even predict who is going to win a local election.

It's a special election. No need to over-analysis anything regarding it.
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Political analysts don't predict election outcomes - that's the job of people we call pollsters, and the polls conducted by those professionals had the R winning a close race, which it appears he did.
 
Hedgology said:
If that is what you want to keep telling yourself to validate your shortcommings, go for it.

I'll just keep telling myself that it is a special election and that it doesn't mean anything...
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Lmao. You don’t even know if the GOP managed to keep a seat it has otherwise easily held by wide margins for most of the last century and Democrats are the ones with shortcomings? :lol:
 
JasperL said:
WTF are you talking about? Those are the official numbers from the Ohio SoS and I'm not clinging to any hope, just pointing out some FACTS about the outstanding votes.
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The Sec of State website says the numbers are unofficial.


I've seen no indication or have reason to believe the D can get a 60-40 or so split out of the remaining votes, especially since provisional votes generally mean discarded votes.
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Prehaps. We won't know until later...

LOL, that's not what being a 'swing state' means, and whether it's a swing STATE or not has exactly f all to do with this district. You're just making crap up.
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That is exactly what a wring state means; both major political parties have an equal level of support and it's usually the independents that tilt the election in favor of a candidate.
 
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