- Joined
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From the Associated Press
DETROIT (AP) — Most U.S. business economists expect corporate sales to grow over the next three months and hiring and pay to rise with them.
But a majority of the economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics say the corporate tax cuts that the Trump administration pushed through Congress have yet to affect their plans for hiring or investment. The administration had promoted its tax cuts, which were heavily tilted toward corporations and wealthy individuals, as likely to raise worker pay and promote corporate investment and expansion over time.
The NABE also said a majority of respondents from goods-producing companies said their companies were delaying investment, raising prices or taking other steps in response to the Trump administration’s trade conflicts with other nations.
The results of the quarterly survey being released Monday reflect responses from 98 of the NABE’s members between June 14 and June 27.
COMMENT:-
First I guess that I should point out that it requires a sample size of 603 (NOT 98) out of a population of 2,600 (NABEs own stated membership) before you can conclude that any survey result is +/- 3.5% around 95% of the time.
Second I guess that I should point out that the 98 respondents to the questionnaire constitute a "self-selected" response group and that the survey results from any "self-selected" response group tend to be somewhat unreliable if you want to apply them to the general population.
Third I guess that I should point out that, contrary to what some of Mr. Trump's supporters appear to believe, the world was NOT created in November of 2016 and that there is a trend line for US sales and employment growth that not only starts before that date but upon which the latest figures lie.
In short, there really isn't any substance to any claim that the growth is either "exceptional" or "all because of Mr. Trump". Equally, there won't be much substance to any claim to the contrary if US sales and employment growth shifts direction. [CAVEAT - If they drop off the board precipitously because of a specific cause (such as a "trade war") initiated by a specific person (such as Mr. Trump) that IS different.]
Survey of economists: US sales and employment likely to grow
DETROIT (AP) — Most U.S. business economists expect corporate sales to grow over the next three months and hiring and pay to rise with them.
But a majority of the economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics say the corporate tax cuts that the Trump administration pushed through Congress have yet to affect their plans for hiring or investment. The administration had promoted its tax cuts, which were heavily tilted toward corporations and wealthy individuals, as likely to raise worker pay and promote corporate investment and expansion over time.
The NABE also said a majority of respondents from goods-producing companies said their companies were delaying investment, raising prices or taking other steps in response to the Trump administration’s trade conflicts with other nations.
The results of the quarterly survey being released Monday reflect responses from 98 of the NABE’s members between June 14 and June 27.
COMMENT:-
First I guess that I should point out that it requires a sample size of 603 (NOT 98) out of a population of 2,600 (NABEs own stated membership) before you can conclude that any survey result is +/- 3.5% around 95% of the time.
Second I guess that I should point out that the 98 respondents to the questionnaire constitute a "self-selected" response group and that the survey results from any "self-selected" response group tend to be somewhat unreliable if you want to apply them to the general population.
Third I guess that I should point out that, contrary to what some of Mr. Trump's supporters appear to believe, the world was NOT created in November of 2016 and that there is a trend line for US sales and employment growth that not only starts before that date but upon which the latest figures lie.
In short, there really isn't any substance to any claim that the growth is either "exceptional" or "all because of Mr. Trump". Equally, there won't be much substance to any claim to the contrary if US sales and employment growth shifts direction. [CAVEAT - If they drop off the board precipitously because of a specific cause (such as a "trade war") initiated by a specific person (such as Mr. Trump) that IS different.]
