Obama expected to hit the campaign trail for Democrats with help from Pelosi and Schumer

jmotivator · Jul 7, 2018

Puigb said:
I mentioned the popular vote when pointing out how Obama won it by five million votes in 2012, despite losing independents by five points. And it does matter, even your boy Trump thought so when he thought Obama lost the popular vote in 2012. His opinion only "evolved" when the EC benefitted his fat ass, despite losing the popular vote.

And my point is that the popular vote doesn't matter, but how independents vote does. And as I keep pointing out, they matter more the more disparity there is in the number of independents versus established parties. The biggest losers from the independent shift lately has been the Democrats.

The economy is good right now, and yet Trump's approval ratings with them are in the gutter. He's done NOTHING to garner more of their support, and in fact has alienated many of them. This benefits the Democrats who already have a larger base.

They aren't in the gutter, they are on par with Obama's approval ratings at the same point in his presidency. And, again, the midterms aren't about the presidency, they are about the party and the pocketbook. People are doing well economically, people are returning to the labor market that has a glut of new jobs available, paying less in taxes, and they watch the Democrats telling them that that is a bad thing. How that plays out in November remains to be seen, but it's not looking like the Democrats are going to enjoy a "wave".

Since they have won on base turn out before, I reject your assertion. But even if I decided to agree with you, yet again let me point out that Trump's approval rating with independents is in the gutter. He doesn't have much support from them. The Democrats don't either, but still have more support than Trump. So, let's say that there's a "near even split" with independents in November, with the Dems having a larger base that hasn't been this fired up to vote since 2008, that doesn't bode well for the GOP.

Every election cycle is different, and the balance of "base" versus independent changes dramatically. You are in one of the worst RID disparities for Dems in recent times, and your base won't pull you across the finish line, you'll need to convince the independents... and I don't see the wild swing towards crazy by the Democrats to be all that appealing to independents.

Well, it's been done before. The Republicans on the other hand, have NEVER won on the strength of their base, at least not in recent elections.

Well, the ideology of conservatives is a bit different than that of progressives. We aren't joiners as much as progressives are. Many like me are independents.

jmotivator · Jul 7, 2018

Puigb said:
Why should it worry Republicans? For several reasons. One, even if you ignore those two cities (because you don't like how they vote), Trump won the popular vote by less than 2 million votes. That's very mediocre, especially considering that the sole reason for that is former Obama voters staying home or voting third party because they didn't like Clinton.

Hah. The point is that in a Representative Republic the break down of the district wins is more important than the popular vote, and Trump won the majority of the districts. The best way to explain that to yo is to point out that what you cling to as the signs of Democratic dominance is actual signs of an unhealthy party.

I could go further and point out that the Democrats misfortunes are also a clear indicator of the need to return more power to the states. I don't want to impose my beliefs of the people of LA or NY as much as they want to impose theirs on me. Shrink the federal government, hand most of those duties back to the states where they are supposed to be and the residents of LA and NY can finally impose the Utopia they always wanted.

Two, your party has alienated every voting bloc besides white voters, particular white rural voters. You once had the Asian American vote on your side, and you've lost them drastically. You once had the Cuban American vote on your side, and they are now abandoning your party in droves. And you don't think this worries Republicans?

Actually the migration right now is in the opposite direction than you think. Minority support of the GOP, and specifically of Trump, are on the rise, not decline. I don't think you realize how disillusioning the Obama failures actually were. The only place where the Obama mystique still holds sway is in the minds of the white elite progressives for whom the success and failure of the small people is entirely abstracted into pure policy. Latino and Black unemployment is at the lowest rate on record right now and that has the Democrats scared out of their mind.

There is a reason they had an "autopsy" report in 2013 after Romney lost to Obama. Romney won the white vote by 20 points (59%-39%), the highest for a GOP candidate since the Reagan years, and STILL lost the election by five million votes, including the EC 332-206. Studies showed that had the demographics been the same in 2012 as they were in 1984, Obama would have lost in an even worse landslide than Mondale, and yet he won, and he won pretty strong. And you don't think this worries the GOP at all? Why, because Trump won by a slim margin? Trump actually did WORSE with self identified Republicans than Romney (Romney 93% in 2012, Trump 88% in 2016), and received a slightly smaller % of the vote than Romney, and yet he won and Romney lost. Why? Because again, Hillary Clinton received less support among her own parties base than Obama did in 2008 and 2012. That's the ONLY reason why Trump won, and you can best believe that the GOP today would have preferred the hispanic Rubio or the amnesty friendly Jeb as president over the loud mouth white guy who spent five years being a birther. But hey, the GOP has nothing to worry about, eh? Keep your head in the sand then.

Trump losses and gains vs Romney:
White -1
Black +2
Asian +3
Hispanic +2
"Other" -1

And his approval in those groups is rising, not falling.

Scared yet?

rhinefire · Jul 7, 2018

The Left is so depleted there are serious dialogues urging Oprah Winfrey to run!! Trump was elected because the Left ran only one genuine opponent and she lost before the election occurred. Another battle between democrat candidates will again guarantee four more years for the insane pumpkin head.

Puigb · Jul 8, 2018

jmotivator said:
And my point is that the popular vote doesn't matter, but how independents vote does. And as I keep pointing out, they matter more the more disparity there is in the number of independents versus established parties. The biggest losers from the independent shift lately has been the Democrats..

No, the biggest loser with the independent shift has been Trump, who never had much support from them to begin with.

jmotivator said:
They aren't in the gutter, they are on par with Obama's approval ratings at the same point in his presidency. And, again, the midterms aren't about the presidency, they are about the party and the pocketbook. People are doing well economically, people are returning to the labor market that has a glut of new jobs available, paying less in taxes, and they watch the Democrats telling them that that is a bad thing. How that plays out in November remains to be seen, but it's not looking like the Democrats are going to enjoy a "wave".

No, they are not on par with Obama's with the exception of one right leaning poll. As for the rest of your nonsense, again despite the economy doing well (which has been going that way well before he got elected), his approval rating with independents is still in the gutter. Just because you fall for the tripe Trump and his goons in the GOP are telling you to fall for, doesn't mean everyone else will.

jmotivator said:
Every election cycle is different, and the balance of "base" versus independent changes dramatically. You are in one of the worst RID disparities for Dems in recent times, and your base won't pull you across the finish line, you'll need to convince the independents... and I don't see the wild swing towards crazy by the Democrats to be all that appealing to independents.

And yet again, Trump's approval rating with independents are very bad...not sure why you think this is somehow going to lead to strong independent support for Trump, but whatever makes you sleep at night I guess.

jmotivator said:
Well, the ideology of conservatives is a bit different than that of progressives. We aren't joiners as much as progressives are. Many like me are independents.

And yet self identified "Republicans" almost always vote at a slightly higher % for their parties candidates than self identified "Democrats" do for theirs. You guys have made the former Bush presidents (who you all voted for) pariahs within their own party because they don't worship at Trump's feet. You guys are the epitome of "group thinkers" and "herd mentality" in every aspect.

Puigb · Jul 9, 2018

jmotivator said:
Hah. The point is that in a Representative Republic the break down of the district wins is more important than the popular vote, and Trump won the majority of the districts. The best way to explain that to yo is to point out that what you cling to as the signs of Democratic dominance is actual signs of an unhealthy party.

Ok then, roll with that.

jmotivator said:
I could go further and point out that the Democrats misfortunes are also a clear indicator of the need to return more power to the states. I don't want to impose my beliefs of the people of LA or NY as much as they want to impose theirs on me. Shrink the federal government, hand most of those duties back to the states where they are supposed to be and the residents of LA and NY can finally impose the Utopia they always wanted.

Then go further then. None of that changes the fact that the only reason why Trump won is because Obama voters in three blue states didn't vote for Hillary the same way they did for Obama twice. That's essentially the reality. Your man didn't really "win", Hillary just "lost.

jmotivator said:
Actually the migration right now is in the opposite direction than you think. Minority support of the GOP, and specifically of Trump, are on the rise, not decline. I don't think you realize how disillusioning the Obama failures actually were. The only place where the Obama mystique still holds sway is in the minds of the white elite progressives for whom the success and failure of the small people is entirely abstracted into pure policy. Latino and Black unemployment is at the lowest rate on record right now and that has the Democrats scared out of their mind.

A bunch of right wing nonsense not even worth responding to. Obama will go down in history as a vastly superior president to Trump, and for that matter the previous clown GOP voters voted for. Your nonsense is made even more laughable when you consider that had Obama been able to run for a third term, he would have wiped the floor with the orange clown.

jmotivator said:
]Trump losses and gains vs Romney:[/U]
White -1
Black +2
Asian +3
Hispanic +2
"Other" -1

And his approval in those groups is rising, not falling.

Scared yet?

LOL, dude Trump's small "gains" were because Hillary was the candidate he was running against. Hillary did worse than Obama with ALL Demographics. And you're bragging about a 1-3% increase in support from blacks, Asians, and hispanics? LOL, dude your party not too long ago used to win the Asian vote, and now you have lost it three times now by 30-40+ points. You once had 44% of support from hispanics in 2004, and now you can't even muster 30% support among them. And I'm supposed to be "scared"? LOL, your party is only relevant because of white rural voters, and there are barely enough of them to win elections now, what makes you think 20 years from now they and they alone will be able to keep the GOP relevant?

jmotivator · Jul 9, 2018

Puigb said:
No, the biggest loser with the independent shift has been Trump, who never had much support from them to begin with.

Patently false. The biggest losers in party affiliation shift to Independent has been Democrats, not Republicans.

No, they are not on par with Obama's with the exception of one right leaning poll. As for the rest of your nonsense, again despite the economy doing well (which has been going that way well before he got elected), his approval rating with independents is still in the gutter. Just because you fall for the tripe Trump and his goons in the GOP are telling you to fall for, doesn't mean everyone else will.

Ah, I see, you throw out the polls you don't like because of "bias"... oh irony.

Sure, so lets look at more recent polling data....

In the latest YouGov poll, Trump's approval is +1 (45/44) among registered voters. To put that in perspective, Democrats favorability among registered voters is 40%. The Republicans are -2 to Dems on registered voters, but Republicans are +4 among independents... which is why that huge disparity in party affiliation right now is not good for Dems and not bad for Republicans.

And, among independents, Trump is +17 compared to Democrats. So whatever aspersions you want to cast regarding Trump's support among independents, it is far worse for Democrats.

OH, and the Democrats argument that they just aren't liberal enough? Also wrong. The plurality of registered voters (47%) believe the Democrats are too liberal, so this push left is likely to hurt them in the long run... and has likely been a reason for their misfortunes over the last 8 years.

And yet again, Trump's approval rating with independents are very bad...not sure why you think this is somehow going to lead to strong independent support for Trump, but whatever makes you sleep at night I guess.

And again, it's not about Trump, but if you pit Trump against the Democrats in job approval then Trump trounces them with a +17 lead in approval according to YouGov.... AND as I also pointed out, the chief ideological complaint against he Democrats is that they are too liberal... so their push to be more liberal will only make that disparity worse.

And yet self identified "Republicans" almost always vote at a slightly higher % for their parties candidates than self identified "Democrats" do for theirs. You guys have made the former Bush presidents (who you all voted for) pariahs within their own party because they don't worship at Trump's feet. You guys are the epitome of "group thinkers" and "herd mentality" in every aspect.

Well, it's not my party, my point is that the independents appear to be more conservative than liberal right now and based on the 2016 vote, 3 times more voters split to Libertarian than split to the Green party, so not sure where you are getting your party loyalty numbers from... unless you think Republican voters went green and Democrats went Libertarian. :lol:

jmotivator · Jul 9, 2018

Puigb said:
Ok then, roll with that.

It doesn't matter one way or the other too me, though I do believe a healthy Republic needs at least two sane parties, and the Democrats are trying to commit suicide at the moment. They need to move to the middle, and instead they are wondering if a 28 year old socialist bartender from New York is the savior of the planet, or just the savior of the Democratic party. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Then go further then. None of that changes the fact that the only reason why Trump won is because Obama voters in three blue states didn't vote for Hillary the same way they did for Obama twice. That's essentially the reality. Your man didn't really "win", Hillary just "lost.

Uh, yeah, Trump won more states than Hillary. That is the point of elections. :roll:

You refuse to understand WHY Trump won those blue states, and the Democrats are too busy blaming Russians to figure it out as well. Those states went to Trump because the rust belt was falling apart from jobs moving out of the area, and Trump offered them a vision of a way forward where their jobs could return. If you don't think their gamble of Trump paid off then you haven't been paying attention.

And sorry, Trump actually really honestly did win. Hillary was carrying the Democrats message of hopelessness and state dependency to blue collar voters who don't like welfare dependency and who wanted jobs. Trump has delivered on those promises. Democrats have decided that the message that will win in blue collar America is... reduced border security. :lamo

A bunch of right wing nonsense not even worth responding to. Obama will go down in history as a vastly superior president to Trump, and for that matter the previous clown GOP voters voted for. Your nonsense is made even more laughable when you consider that had Obama been able to run for a third term, he would have wiped the floor with the orange clown.

I'm just going by the polls, man. You are just stuck in a logical loop where everything that doesn't agree with your world view must be right wing bias, so you have built a safe room free of pesky facts.

Hispanic and Black employment are at record highs... must be a right wing plot! :lamo

LOL, dude Trump's small "gains" were because Hillary was the candidate he was running against. Hillary did worse than Obama with ALL Demographics. And you're bragging about a 1-3% increase in support from blacks, Asians, and hispanics? LOL, dude your party not too long ago used to win the Asian vote, and now you have lost it three times now by 30-40+ points. You once had 44% of support from hispanics in 2004, and now you can't even muster 30% support among them. And I'm supposed to be "scared"? LOL, your party is only relevant because of white rural voters, and there are barely enough of them to win elections now, what makes you think 20 years from now they and they alone will be able to keep the GOP relevant?

*sigh* The Democrats successes, the few they have had, require huge disparities in minority voting in their favor. When the black vote moves 5 points it is still a landslide for Democrats among black voters, but can easily equate to an election day loss. Trump has made significant against among Black and Hispanic voters, which is a direct subtraction from the Democrats.

And, back the original point, even with the black and Hispanic vote and Obama leading the DNC they lost huge over the last 8 years... so how Obama is supposed to help now is anyone's guess.

Puigb · Jul 14, 2018

jmotivator said:
Patently false. The biggest losers in party affiliation shift to Independent has been Democrats, not Republicans.

Except that you haven't proven that at all. And the biggest losers with independents is Donald Trump, who never had much support from them to begin with.

jmotivator said:
Ah, I see, you throw out the polls you don't like because of "bias"... oh irony.

Rasmussen is known to have a right wing bias. Are you disputing this? And why are you even bragging about Rasmussen, when Trump's approval rating is below average with a heavily biased right wing poll? as of July 12th, Trump's approval rating was 46% with Rasmussen, and disapproval at 53%, and you somehow think that is good? Yeah, go with that.

jmotivator said:
the latest YouGov poll, Trump's approval is +1 (45/44) among registered voters. To put that in perspective, Democrats favorability among registered voters is 40%. The Republicans are -2 to Dems on registered voters, but Republicans are +4 among independents... which is why that huge disparity in party affiliation right now is not good for Dems and not bad for Republicans.

LOL, it's funny how you want to look at one particular poll that's biased towards your beliefs, while ignoring something like RealClearPolitics or 538 which takes all of Trump's approval ratings with various different polls into account, and shows that his overall approval rating is below average.

jmotivator said:
And, among independents, Trump is +17 compared to Democrats. So whatever aspersions you want to cast regarding Trump's support among independents, it is far worse for Democrats.

Trump's latest approval rating with independents last I checked ranged around 37%-39%. So you are saying Democrats have a 20-22% approval rating? maybe so, but I guarantee the Republican congress approval rating is even worse.

jmotivator said:
Oh, and the Democrats argument that they just aren't liberal enough? Also wrong. The plurality of registered voters (47%) believe the Democrats are too liberal, so this push left is likely to hurt them in the long run... and has likely been a reason for their misfortunes over the last 8 years.

Actually, the fact that the Democrat establishment ignored their progressive constituency, and forced Hillary Clinton down their voters throats was exactly why they lost in 2016. Your opinion on what is "too liberal" is irrelevant. Democrats today are basically just Republican light. It's the GOP that's too much to the right, hence why their leading candidates in 2016 were Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.

jmotivator said:
And again, it's not about Trump, but if you pit Trump against the Democrats in job approval then Trump trounces them with a +17 lead in approval according to YouGov.... AND as I also pointed out, the chief ideological complaint against he Democrats is that they are too liberal... so their push to be more liberal will only make that disparity worse.

Yeah, you go with YouGov then if that makes you feel better, LOL. And again, what's the Republican congress approval rating with Independents?

jmotivator said:
Well, it's not my party, my point is that the independents appear to be more conservative than liberal right now and based on the 2016 vote, 3 times more voters split to Libertarian than split to the Green party, so not sure where you are getting your party loyalty numbers from... unless you think Republican voters went green and Democrats went Libertarian. :lol:

Yeah, you go with that champ. Trump only received 46% of the independent vote in 2016. During his first few weeks he had a 49% approval rating with them. Now it's 39% with them, and has showed no signs of increasing despite Trump and his fanatical supporters yelling about how great he is.

Puigb · Jul 14, 2018

jmotivator said:
It doesn't matter one way or the other too me, though I do believe a healthy Republic needs at least two sane parties, and the Democrats are trying to commit suicide at the moment. They need to move to the middle, and instead they are wondering if a 28 year old socialist bartender from New York is the savior of the planet, or just the savior of the Democratic party. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Democratic party isn't going anywhere. In fact, thanks to Trump I see another 2008 election happening again in the very near future.

jmotivator said:
You refuse to understand WHY Trump won those blue states, and the Democrats are too busy blaming Russians to figure it out as well. Those states went to Trump because the rust belt was falling apart from jobs moving out of the area, and Trump offered them a vision of a way forward where their jobs could return. If you don't think their gamble of Trump paid off then you haven't been paying attention.

No, It's YOU who refuses to understand why Trump won those blue states. It had nothing to do with Trump himself, and everything to do with Hillary Clinton. Trump would have lost to those states had Obama ran for a third term, or even against Bill Clinton. And paying off? Yeah, whatever champ. That's why his approval rating among those states has actually dropped.

jmotivator said:
And sorry, Trump actually really honestly did win. Hillary was carrying the Democrats message of hopelessness and state dependency to blue collar voters who don't like welfare dependency and who wanted jobs. Trump has delivered on those promises. Democrats have decided that the message that will win in blue collar America is... reduced border security. :lamo

More right wing babble. You just don't like people who disagree with your ideology, so you resort to Breitbart talking points about "Welfare dependency" and "reduced border security"

And Trump hasn't delivered on any promises...other than to pander to his right wing base. Those 3 blue states he won...his approval rating has gone down in all 3.

jmotivator said:
i'm just going by the polls, man. You are just stuck in a logical loop where everything that doesn't agree with your world view must be right wing bias, so you have built a safe room free of pesky facts.

You are confusing me with yourself.

jmotivator said:
Hispanic and Black employment are at record highs... must be a right wing plot! :lamo

A trend that was going on well before your orange messiah was elected. But sure, let's give all the credit to Trump who's done nothing but try to take away their health care.

jmotivator said:
sigh* The Democrats successes, the few they have had, require huge disparities in minority voting in their favor. When the black vote moves 5 points it is still a landslide for Democrats among black voters, but can easily equate to an election day loss. Trump has made significant against among Black and Hispanic voters, which is a direct subtraction from the Democrats.

Actually, you are correct that huge disparities with minority voters have helped them win elections. And I'm glad you admit that slightly less minority support for Clinton than for Obama was the main reason why Trump won, all of that is true. Here's the thing though, the GOP has not gained any strength with white voters, and in fact has lost some. See, the Republicans rely strictly on white voters to win elections. That's literally all they have at this point, and yet you guys can barely muster up 63 million votes. You yourself even admitted it...Trump only won because of a decrease in minority support for Clinton. Thing is, you keep repeating this lie that Trump is making strong gains with minorities. He really isn't. His approval rating with minorities are very bad. Heck, his approval rating with whites isn't even that good...which is why he's going around having rallies basically BEGGING his supporters to go to the polls, because he knows he has nobody else.

jmotivator said:
, back the original point, even with the black and Hispanic vote and Obama leading the DNC they lost huge over the last 8 years... so how Obama is supposed to help now is anyone's guess.

Obama can help because he provides a refreshing contrast to the current corrupt piece of sewage we have as president now. Every since Trump came onto the political scene, Obama's approval ratings have gone up, and now they are higher than ever while Trump's are in the gutter.

jmotivator · Jul 14, 2018

Puigb said:
Except that you haven't proven that at all. And the biggest losers with independents is Donald Trump, who never had much support from them to begin with.[/quopte]

The decline in those identifying as Democrats is greater than the decline of those identifying as Republican... the disparity dropped from +4 Dem to +2 while the Independent identification increase, and the disparity between Ind and Dem also increased more than it did for Republicans... AND the Republican lean among independents got better while Dems got worse.

In short, more people left the Democrats in favor of Independents, and Independents still became more Republican.... so how is that not bad for the Democrats?

Rasmussen is known to have a right wing bias. Are you disputing this? And why are you even bragging about Rasmussen, when Trump's approval rating is below average with a heavily biased right wing poll? as of July 12th, Trump's approval rating was 46% with Rasmussen, and disapproval at 53%, and you somehow think that is good? Yeah, go with that.

Click to expand...

You are determining bias using bias... which is biased. Almost All polsters, including Rassmussen, have a bias towards Democrats:

(source)

Rassmussen has done well in calling large races (was the most accurate in 2016), and gets it's mediocre rating primarily on its polling in state and local races. But the Democrat bias is real... unless you want to claim that FiveThirtyEight is a "right wing site" :roll:

LOL, it's funny how you want to look at one particular poll that's biased towards your beliefs, while ignoring something like RealClearPolitics or 538 which takes all of Trump's approval ratings with various different polls into account, and shows that his overall approval rating is below average.

Trump's latest approval rating with independents last I checked ranged around 37%-39%. So you are saying Democrats have a 20-22% approval rating? maybe so, but I guarantee the Republican congress approval rating is even worse.

Click to expand...

Not a very bold statement guaranteeing something I already stated was true... :roll:

Republicans/Democrat split is +2 Democrat, but independents are +4 Republican. All that says is that if only Republicans and Democrats turned out on voting day then Democrats would win, but it also says that if independents turn out then the Democrats lose.

Actually, the fact that the Democrat establishment ignored their progressive constituency, and forced Hillary Clinton down their voters throats was exactly why they lost in 2016. Your opinion on what is "too liberal" is irrelevant. Democrats today are basically just Republican light. It's the GOP that's too much to the right, hence why their leading candidates in 2016 were Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.

Click to expand...

Wed can make all kinds of arguments about who should have been the nominee on both sides, but you are making an assertion that isn't provable so it really doesn't matter.

Yeah, you go with YouGov then if that makes you feel better, LOL. And again, what's the Republican congress approval rating with Independents?

Click to expand...

LOL. So you have a problem with YouGov now because you don't like what it says? I am detecting... a pattern.

Yeah, you go with that champ. Trump only received 46% of the independent vote in 2016. During his first few weeks he had a 49% approval rating with them. Now it's 39% with them, and has showed no signs of increasing despite Trump and his fanatical supporters yelling about how great he is.

Click to expand...

Again, this isn't 2016, and Trump isn't running.

Obama expected to hit the campaign trail for Democrats with help from Pelosi and Schumer

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