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Economy added 223,000 jobs in May, but Trump's premarket tweet is the focus

tres borrachos said:
I'm not sure why you think I care who you voted for, or why you cheer Trump today. It's your right as an American. It's my right to not accept the man as a good President. Get over it. He doesn't even know you're alive, and doesn't care about you even if he did.

I'm not going to apologize for anything. I'm not dumb enough to think the US President creates private sector jobs. I said that when Obama was President too, which is why I wasn't on here screaming about his successes either.

You have to worship Trump without me. I'm waiting for a real man to come along and act like a decent human being. That isn't Trump. Sorry to upset you.
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What you do is judge people on personality and never on the actual results. I don't give a **** if he knows I am alive, all I care about are the economic and foreign policy results so if you would like to discuss those or show me where I am wrong, i will gladly continue this discussion.
 
Conservative said:
What you do is judge people on personality and never on the actual results. I don't give a **** if he knows I am alive, all I care about are the economic and foreign policy results so if you would like to discuss those or show me where I am wrong, i will gladly continue this discussion.
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Again, why do you think I care what you care about? You're an American, and as such, you have whatever freedom you choose to view a President as you wish. I have no interest in showing you "where you are wrong" or not. My opinion is extremely important to you. Yours isn't important to me. Keep on giving Trump credit for making private sector jobs, and I'll do what I've done for the last 40 years - credit the businesses, states, workers, market, innovation, buyers, and even Congress.
 
tres borrachos said:
Again, why do you think I care what you care about? You're an American, and as such, you have whatever freedom you choose to view a President as you wish. I have no interest in showing you "where you are wrong" or not. My opinion is extremely important to you. Yours isn't important to me. Keep on giving Trump credit for making private sector jobs, and I'll do what I've done for the last 40 years - credit the businesses, states, workers, market, innovation, buyers, and even Congress.
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You have no interest or cannot do it?? The latter is more like it because there isn't anything Trump has done that truly causes you any problems at all and it is obvious you never ran a but forward planners have which is why the economy is growing due to Trump actions and rhetoric.

you think companies are going to hire people when forced to pay higher taxes, pay higher benefits, and have more regulations?? If Trump isn't responsible why are his numbers so much better than Obama's and why didn't Obama do it in 8 years? In 1year 4 months 3.4 million jobs have been created in the Trump economy whereas Obama had 6 million in 8 years. Keep buying the rhetoric and keep ignoring the results but you are right, I couldn't care less what you think but will continue to prove you wrong with data
 
tres borrachos said:
Again, why do you think I care what you care about? You're an American, and as such, you have whatever freedom you choose to view a President as you wish. I have no interest in showing you "where you are wrong" or not. My opinion is extremely important to you. Yours isn't important to me. Keep on giving Trump credit for making private sector jobs, and I'll do what I've done for the last 40 years - credit the businesses, states, workers, market, innovation, buyers, and even Congress.
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Ironic.

That sounds Conservative.

The poster named ‘Conservative’ seems to just blabber on about how terrible the economy was/is over (name Democrat here) and how heavenly it was/is over (name Republican here), irregardless of having to manipulate dates or data to do so.

Sounds like a poor choice of username.
 
Conservative said:
You have no interest or cannot do it?? The latter is more like it because there isn't anything Trump has done that truly causes you any problems at all and it is obvious you never ran a but forward planners have which is why the economy is growing due to Trump actions and rhetoric.

you think companies are going to hire people when forced to pay higher taxes, pay higher benefits, and have more regulations?? If Trump isn't responsible why are his numbers so much better than Obama's and why didn't Obama do it in 8 years? In 1year 4 months 3.4 million jobs have been created in the Trump economy whereas Obama had 6 million in 8 years. Keep buying the rhetoric and keep ignoring the results but you are right, I couldn't care less what you think but will continue to prove you wrong with data
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I think you may want to work on your reading comprehension. The words "I don't care" don't make sense to you. I assumed everyone over the age of 5 understood them.

Weird that you are so hung up on my opinion of Trump. I'm dots on a screen to you.
 
tres borrachos said:
I think you may want to work on your reading comprehension. The words "I don't care" don't make sense to you. I assumed everyone over the age of 5 understood them.

Weird that you are so hung up on my opinion of Trump. I'm dots on a screen to you.
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your opinion on Trump personally mirrors mine HOWEVER we differ when the results come into play none of which seem to resonate with you
 
pinqy said:
Any of it. To reword the sentence for you: “Since Conservative ignored that there was a stimulus under Bush, I won’t mention it either.” That’s called irony, because I did, in fact, mention it. It was a rhetorical device to emphasize A major deficiency in Conservarive’s view.


Of course, but you also made personal remarks against me and stated that they were also my views.


I disagree with all his interpretations of the data, his inane claim that people hated Obama so much that they voted out Democrats from Congress but re-elected Obama, and basically all the politics he injects into what should be an economics analysis.



Why bother what? Giving his view? Because it took me years to sift through his gibberish and repetitions. No matter what you ask, he’ll end up giving pretty much the same response regardless of any contradictory facts or analysis. I thought it would be easier if I broke down his view, making it easier to see how nonsensical it is.
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”It was a rhetorical device to emphasize A major deficiency in Conservarive’s view.”

Poe's law: An Internet adage which states that, without a clear indicator of the author's intent, parodies of extreme views will, to some readers, be indistinguishable from sincere expressions of the parodied views.


Excuse me for taking your words as said. You didn’t even add an emoji. Not being sarcastic, thanks, though, for the clarification.


“Of course, but you also made personal remarks against me and stated that they were also my views.”


Of course, because what I said flowed from a statement you made that lacked clarity. And I still recognized the intent of your post to interpret Conservative's gibberish.


“I disagree with all his interpretations of the data, his inane claim that people hated Obama so much that they voted out Democrats from Congress but re-elected Obama, and basically all the politics he injects into what should be an economics analysis.”


Better said late than never. That you saw his 2 + 2 = anything but 4 data interpretation, his unsupported claim that Democrats were voted out of office due to the peoples’ hatred of Obama, and his interrupting economic analysis with an irrelevant political comment is keen.


“Why bother what? Giving his view? Because it took me years to sift through his gibberish and repetitions. No matter what you ask, he’ll end up giving pretty much the same response regardless of any contradictory facts or analysis. I thought it would be easier if I broke down his view, making it easier to see how nonsensical it is.”

It has taken me somewhat less than years to sift through Conservative’s gibberish, though but recently, and with your help. Still, the world deserves those as he need be invalidated. Which I will continue to do. However, I will leave his own view up to him (or her), and not attempt to speak for him, however accurate and with which speech I may agree. Your first post of interpretation was most accurate of what Conservative's position should better have been for a forthright debate. This last post was more telling of what that position was really about. Anyway, I’ll just leave it off at without evidence to support whatever claim made, the argument need not go any further with him, or others, as I state thread-to-thread. There's only so much research that troll jockeys can lead one onto before the learning curve goes flat.
 
pinqy said:
And now you change to completely different allegations ok
Investigative Report on Census Bureau Data Falsification Allegations Office of the Inspector General, Department of Commerce.

“In October 2013, OIG received information alleging that management in the U.S. Census Bureau’s Philadelphia Regional Office instructed staff to falsify survey responses on the AHS and the CPS. Following this complaint, additional allegations were presented in various media publications, which reported widespread data falsification in the Census Bureau’s Philadelphia Regional Office.

OIG thoroughly investigated these allegations, and found no evidence that management in the Philadelphia Regional Office instructed staff to falsify data at any time for any reason. Further, we found no evidence of systemic data falsification in the Philadelphia Regional Office. Addressing allegations raised in the media, we found no evidence that the national unemployment rate was manipulated by staff in the Philadelphia Regional Office in the months leading up to the 2012 presidential election. To accomplish this, our analysis concluded that it would have taken 78 Census Bureau Field Representatives working together, in a coordinated way, to report each and every unemployed person included in their sample as “employed” or “not in labor force” during September 2012, an effort which likely would have been detected by the Census Bureau’s quality assurance procedures. Moreover, our analysis shows that the drop in the unemployment rate at that time is consistent with other indicators, including payroll estimates by Moody’s Analytics and Automatic Data Processing (ADP).

As part of our investigation, we reviewed the Census Bureau’s processes for identifying and taking action when data falsification is uncovered, and found that the quality assurance process in place creates the potential for conflicts of interest because the same supervisors who manage staff (and could direct the falsification of survey data) are responsible for reporting instances when their staff falsifies data. To remedy this situation, we recommend that the Census Bureau implement an independent system to check for falsification, similar to the one used during the Decennial Census. We also found that the CPS procedural manuals and training materials are outdated, inconsistent, and do not discuss prohibitions and serious consequences for falsifying survey data, and we recommend that they be corrected to include information about detecting and dealing with falsification when it occurs.“
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Terrific!
 
JasperL said:
Well, I don't get a paycheck because I am self employed, but if I did, it's not on ADP's system. They have to use their data that doesn't cover 100% of employers and then make "vague adjusted estimates" to that data to give you a monthly report that purports to represent the entire U.S. economy that would include...ME! for example. I'm not unemployed, or looking for a job, but I don't get a paycheck processed by ADP.
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You have my respect and admiration.

Small business people are brave adventurers.
 
JasperL said:
Really? How do you know that without surveying people to see if they are looking for a job? That's not in ADP data, and neither is job openings.

As to the participation rate in particular, we know that number will go down due to the retiring of the baby boomers which is now reaching full steam. So when you see the number employed change in a month, you need to adjust out the retirees if you're looking at the health of the jobs market. Well how do you do that without a......survey? Some people will reach 65 and want or need to continue to work, others will retire and not want a job. Well how does ADP data tell you which one?
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As it happens, when people retire, they often apply for Social Security.

That is also a hard number as Social Security Checks are cut and delivered.
 
JasperL said:
FWIW, my sister in law is in the prime work years (her 40s) and not in the workforce, so she's not included in the participation rate. So the point was that just looking at the participation rate doesn't tell you all that much about the jobs market. As it happens, she has five kids, 2 she home schools, and my brother makes a good living that allows her not to work and to take care of the kids, which is a full time job, plus, so her not being in the jobs market is a good thing, for her, the family including the kids, and arguably for the economy because my brother's job pays enough to provide for a 7 person family. You can't determine that from the participation survey, but if BLS surveys her, she's not counted in the U-1 through U-6 stats because she doesn't have or want a job, so isn't "unemployed" by any definition. So the survey in her case is far superior to any data ADP can produce from their payroll records, and far superior to just looking at the participation rate.
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You seem to be offended by something and I don't know what or why.

Your sister is apparently not working. That's terrific.
 
pinqy said:
The Labor Force Participation rate comes from the Current Population Survey and is employed PLUS unemployed as a percent of the adult civilian no institutional population. It does not tell us anything about how many people have jobs: that would be the employment-population ratio. The unemployment rate is unemployed divided by employed plus unemployed.

Job openings come from another BLS survey: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
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Terrific!
 
tres borrachos said:
You still aren't discussing what I am, which is not Obama. That's why his name isn't in the subject line of this thread.
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Why don't you tell me exactly what you'd like to discuss?
 
pinqy said:
No, you showed that, before he read the report or knew what was in it, that Obama said it was expected to be a dismal report. I was working at BLS at the time, and if I remember correctly (I could be thinking of another incident) BLS did double check to make sure Obama had not read the report yet.

Therefore Obama did not violate policy. Trump did know what was in the report however and broke OMB Statistical Policy Directive 3. However, under Diective 4, if the embargo is broken, the data are to be released immediately (and this has happened with accidental early release). But since the data were not released early, we can conclude that BLS and DOL did not consider Trump’s comments an actual breach.
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Terrific!
 
code1211 said:
As it happens, when people retire, they often apply for Social Security.

That is also a hard number as Social Security Checks are cut and delivered.
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Yeah, and my father in law worked for another 10-12 years after he was forced to start distributions from SS, so that stat doesn't tell you whether he's in the workforce.
 
code1211 said:
You seem to be offended by something and I don't know what or why.

Your sister is apparently not working. That's terrific.
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I'm not offended, I'm just pointing out that your bias against SURVEYS isn't rational when the labor participation rate depends on a SURVEY, and you say you like to use that report. The anecdote about my sister in law was to demonstrate why ADP data can't tell us who is in the "workforce" which is the numerator of the labor participation rate. We can know she's not working, but why she (and millions of others) aren't working affect the labor participation rate, and the only way to determine that is with a SURVEY.

You also referred to the JOLT report, formally titled, "Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey" which is as the name suggests based on SURVEYS, as it must be because a job seeker doesn't show up in ADP data, and neither do job openings.

You've also irrationally dismissed BLS because they use "vague adjusted data" but prefer ADP who also use "vague adjusted data" for their monthly reports.
 
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code1211 said:
As it happens, when people retire, they often apply for Social Security.

That is also a hard number as Social Security Checks are cut and delivered.
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Except not all retirees collect social security and some people who do collect still work.
 
tres borrachos said:
I'm discussing the Tweet Trump sent which the markets reacted to. You don't remember what this thread is about? Come on. I know you do.
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What exactly would you like to discuss?

You seemed to be fixated on talking about exactly one thing.

Please let me know exactly what topic you are hoping to discuss.
 
tres borrachos said:
I'm discussing the Tweet Trump sent which the markets reacted to. You don't remember what this thread is about? Come on. I know you do.
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What exactly would you like to discuss?

You seemed to be fixated on talking about exactly one thing.

Please let me know exactly what topic you are hoping to discuss.

There are various aspect to this and I want to assure that I don't wander outside the bounds of the consideration you hope to pursue.
 
JasperL said:
Yeah, and my father in law worked for another 10-12 years after he was forced to start distributions from SS, so that stat doesn't tell you whether he's in the workforce.
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Are people "forced" to accept Social Security?

I thought this was a voluntary and proactive move by the individual.
 
JasperL said:
I'm not offended, I'm just pointing out that your bias against SURVEYS isn't rational when the labor participation rate depends on a SURVEY, and you say you like to use that report. The anecdote about my sister in law was to demonstrate why ADP data can't tell us who is in the "workforce" which is the numerator of the labor participation rate. We can know she's not working, but why she (and millions of others) aren't working affect the labor participation rate, and the only way to determine that is with a SURVEY.

You also referred to the JOLT report, formally titled, "Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey" which is as the name suggests based on SURVEYS, as it must be because a job seeker doesn't show up in ADP data, and neither do job openings.

You've also irrationally dismissed BLS because they use "vague adjusted data" but prefer ADP who also use "vague adjusted data" for their monthly reports.
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I prefer the vague and adjusted data that is least subject to vagueness and adjustments.
 
pinqy said:
Except not all retirees collect social security and some people who do collect still work.
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And that data is apparently available.
 
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