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Steel and aluminum tariffs

CLAX1911 said:
yes that is the point of a tariff so that domestic companies can compete to more easily with foreign ones ...
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That really only applies if there are actually domestic companies that CAN compete with the foreign ones.

Do you know what percentage of the US "raw" aluminum market can be met by existing domestic aluminum smelters?

Do you know what percentage of the US "raw" aluminum market can be met if all the "mothballed" domestic aluminum smelters were to be put back into operation?

Do you know how long it would take to put all the "mothballed" domestic aluminum smelters back into operation?

Do you know what is going to happen to the price that domestic companies pay for "raw" aluminum until the US has the capacity to smelt enough aluminum to meed its domestic "raw" aluminum requirements?

Do you know where the money is going to come from to increase the American domestic aluminum smelting industry to the point where is can meet America's domestic "raw" aluminum requirements?

Given the track record of consistency exhibited by the current US administration, what do you estimate the odds are that the US domestic aluminum smelting industry will spend several hundreds of millions of dollars in building new plants which might not be economically viable should the tariff on aluminum be rescinded?
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CLAX1911 said:
... the problem is domestic companies will raise the price to whatever people are willing to pay ...
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Considering that the costs of production for domestically produced "raw" aluminum aren't changed by the imposition of a tariff, then any increase in price is the same thing as an increase in profits (as far as the US domestic aluminum smelting industry is concerned) and the US domestic aluminum smelting industryu is highly unlikely to view an increase in profits as a "problem".

CLAX1911 said:
and if people are willing to pay 10% more for foreign aluminum, they are likely more willing to pay more for domestic aluminum.
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"Willing" is not necessarily the operative word here. If the aluminum is necessary for the production of the product then the people who are actually producing the product don't actually have much of a choice in the matter - do they?

CLAX1911 said:
The problem is is that it is an artificial increase in value.
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Now why would that be a problem?

Remember, Mr. Trump has taken the position that the increase in personal wealth offsets the national debt so if a few people get a whole lot richer that means that the national debt actually goes down - despite what those so-called "economists" and so-called "accountants" and so-called "bankers" say.

Right?

CLAX1911 said:
Right I just don't know why people can't comprehend that.
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Because they actually believe that Mr. Trump knows what he is doing?
 
digsbe said:
I don't like the tariffs, but I understand the sentiment that US businesses cannot fairly compete with foreign ones. However, rather than artificially bump a US business via tariffs they should re-evaluate what makes them poor competitors and change accordingly to be more profitable. Real value and economic growth comes from maximizing the yield from resources, buy foreign steal cheaper to keep costs down and use lower costs to maximize profit/production, that is what creates real wealth.
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Tariffs for the rich, and cuts to social services for the poor?

Tariffs, for the Poor!
 
Grand Mal said:
Agreed. And a similar or higher export tax on raw logs.
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Since Mr. Trump works on the "Once the pianos are delivered I don't have to pay for them." economic theory, any "export tax" should also require a very substantial cash deposit to ensure that it is actually paid.

I'd suggest roughly six months worth be paid in and whatever is withdrawn to cover the "export tax" has to be deposited within 7 days.

The US oil industry should have absolutely no difficulty in coming up with the miserable sum of US$4,857,825,000 required to secure six months of oil delivery at US$7.00/bbl and coming up with US$26,600,000 on a daily basis shouldn't be anything other than a minor accounting effort.
 
Barnacle said:
I used "was", as in past ... as in before.
Trump's tariffs have not had an effect yet on the US of A, but NAFTA had, and we got screwed over by NAFTA.
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With reference to Canada, could you please explain how the US "having a positive trade balance" means the same thing as the US "got screwed over"?
 
Barnacle said:
Not long ago, the American tobacco farmers had to change their crop, too.
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There is an old joke about the farmer who suddenly started being very prosperous after years of just barely getting along.

When asked about his sudden change in fortune, he said that he had received a subsidy for plowing under his tobacco fields and another for the corn that he didn't plant which he then didn't mix with the "price stabilized" milk which he didn't market (from the cows he didn't have) in order to feed to the pigs that he didn't raise.
 
TU Curmudgeon said:
With reference to Canada, could you please explain how the US "having a positive trade balance" means the same thing as the US "got screwed over"?
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That trade balance is even more positive than most realize. A lot of what they count as 'imports' is unrefined oil, which they then refine and sell on the open market, sometimes back to us. They make money, in other words, off what they import and then claim it on the negative side when calculating the trade balance.
 
digsbe said:
I don't like the tariffs, but I understand the sentiment that US businesses cannot fairly compete with foreign ones. However, rather than artificially bump a US business via tariffs they should re-evaluate what makes them poor competitors and change accordingly to be more profitable. Real value and economic growth comes from maximizing the yield from resources, buy foreign steal cheaper to keep costs down and use lower costs to maximize profit/production, that is what creates real wealth.
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I don't know why you think steel and aluminum bought from Canada or Europe is cheaper than domestic product. But whatever. American steel and aluminum producers will take next to no time at all to raise the cost of their own products to reflect the new price and everything made of metal in the US will suddenly be more expensive than the same things made in Europe and Canada. That's gonna create real wealth alright, just not in the USA.
 
Yes_Minister said:
Do you really think less access to markets like Canada and Mexico will help these farmers and not hurt them?
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Mr. Trump doesn't own any farms.

Yes_Minister said:
Also how is punishing Canada and Mexico going to end these farm subsidies, ...
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The US does NOT have any "subsidies" (those are illegal and the US government will punish any country that has them). The US has "price stabilization progrsams".

Yes_Minister said:
... it seems like making these farmers more poor by having less access to foreign markets will make them rely more subsidies.
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If they can't make a living being farmers, then maybe they had better find some other line of work.

Yes_Minister said:
Canada is the largest foreign trading partner for 35 US states, is punishing Canada for some imagined slight worth ruining that?
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Mr. Trump does not own any golf courses in Canada so how could Canada possibly be economically important to the United States of America?
 
digsbe said:
I don't like the tariffs, but I understand the sentiment that US businesses cannot fairly compete with foreign ones.
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The American "matryoshka doll" industry cannot compete with foreign producers so the only thing to do is to put a tariff on all foreign produced "matryoshka dolls" and that will allow the American "matryoshka doll" industry to compete.

Please note - There will be a slight delay (and minor price increases) while the US builds a "matryoshka doll" industry that is able to meet the American domestic demand for "matryoshka dolls".
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If that sounds a wee tiny bit like Mr. Trump's tariffs on "foreign aluminum", you shouldn't be at all surprised.
 
TU Curmudgeon said:
Mr. Trump doesn't own any farms.



The US does NOT have any "subsidies" (those are illegal and the US government will punish any country that has them). The US has "price stabilization progrsams".



If they can't make a living being farmers, then maybe they had better find some other line of work.



Mr. Trump does not own any golf courses in Canada so how could Canada possibly be economically important to the United States of America?
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I see what you did there.

I was responding to Barnacle's response to my article about this hurting US farmers, so he brought up farm subsidies.

Obviously this targeted tariffs are designed to affect Trump's base more then anyone else, so they will pressure him to back off, but there is an argument to made to going after Trump's business directly, I think there are enough Trump businesses in these countries to make going after them sting
 
TU Curmudgeon said:
There is an old joke about the farmer who suddenly started being very prosperous after years of just barely getting along.

When asked about his sudden change in fortune, he said that he had received a subsidy for plowing under his tobacco fields and another for the corn that he didn't plant which he then didn't mix with the "price stabilized" milk which he didn't market (from the cows he didn't have) in order to feed to the pigs that he didn't raise.
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beats, Corporate Downsizing,every day of the week.
 
Barnacle said:
I'm not interested in your misguided speculations for the future based on the usual hysteria from the left ... etc. etc. etc.

I was taking about what NAFTA did to the US of A in the past - it screwed us over.
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That is your claim. However it wasn't nafta that did it.. it was the inevitable automatons.
 
What absolute madness. This is what Trump loves. Causing chaos. World iron/steel prices have already been going up as high as 20+% in the past year. The US raw steel producers only have 20% capacity, which they can't just suck-up overnight. Without a doubt, they will raise their prices to make bigger profits. And, why should they sink money into new plants or much money into expanding existing plants if they don't believe this tariff thing will hold.
 
Mycroft said:
Think about how GDP is calculated. There are three ways. The government prefers the following method:



Now...think about what Trump's objective in all of his various trade talks is: Reducing the trade deficit.

Looking at the formula above, the GDP is affected by the trade deficit. The trade deficit goes up...GDP goes down. The trade deficit goes down...GDP goes up.

Trump would rather come to a trade agreement with various countries to reduce the trade deficit we have with them, but for the ones who won't deal, he will reduce our imports which will cause our GDP to rise. If they turn around and deal, we can remove the tariffs, the deficit will still come down...and GDP will still rise.

Now...you'll want to mention that we have less exports because some countries will enact tariffs on us. Perhaps. But I think our producers will be compensated by filling the void from our lesser imports. Virtually anything we can buy from other countries can be produced by our country. This will positively affect GDP.

The real question those other countries need to ask themselves is this: Will they be able to weather the loss of their sales to the US easier than we can weather the loss of our sales?

I think they'll see the light and come to a trade agreement with the US that will reduce our trade deficit...and thereby increasing our GDP.
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That is not the point. Deliberately slowing our economy means our debt payments are more difficult. And, the right wing is making it worse, through deficit financing of current government operations. Right wing tax cuts are Not paying for themselves or balancing the budget.
 
danielpalos said:
That is not the point.
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This is an explanation of the point I made earlier about the GDP increasing.

Deliberately slowing our economy
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I don't see anything slowing our economy.

means our debt payments are more difficult. And, the right wing is making it worse, through deficit financing of current government operations. Right wing tax cuts are Not paying for themselves or balancing the budget.
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Now you are just tossing unrelated **** against the wall. Sorry, but none of it is sticking.
 
"Unfortunately our allies have not yet caught on to the fact they need to bribe Trump, like the Chinese, or blackmail Trump like the Russians."

Saw this post at another forum.
 
Mycroft said:
I don't see anything slowing our economy.



Now you are just tossing unrelated **** against the wall. Sorry, but none of it is sticking.
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Tariffs do not boost any economy.

Job loses are expected and the resulting loss in tax revenue and demand.

New Report Estimates Job Losses from Section 232 Tariffs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5L3DjEEwCBY
 
Grand Mal said:
I can't speak for everyone but the people I've talked to here wonder why Trump would alienate his staunchest ally and biggest trading partner for such a ridiculous (national security?) reason.
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Trump literally says things that make no sense, and makes damaging and reckless decisions. I don't think anybody thinks Canada is a security threat. Trump needs to be stopped before he completely destroys this country.
 
Mycroft said:
Trump would rather come to a trade agreement with various countries to reduce the trade deficit we have with them
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Trump wants five year trade deals. That is absolutely ludicrous. The guy is winging it and you should be smart enough to know it.
 
Mycroft said:
This is an explanation of the point I made earlier about the GDP increasing.



I don't see anything slowing our economy.



Now you are just tossing unrelated **** against the wall. Sorry, but none of it is sticking.
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Trade wars, don't boost any economy. It merely increases the price of goods, not produce any better products at lower cost; and, all of this by government fiat - none dare call it Regulation, while in the minority.
 
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