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Thread: Trump tells people he is selecting Larry Kudlow to replace Gary Cohn

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    Re: Trump tells people he is selecting Larry Kudlow to replace Gary Cohn

    Quote Originally Posted by Bucky View Post
    I am suprised at the negative reaction Kudlow is receiving.

    I remember watching the kudlow report while eating figgy pudding. It was extremely relaxing. Kudlow has a calming voice. He really is a great story teller
    I don't think it matters a whole lot, but the problem with Kudlow is he's just a mouthpiece for GOP 'economic' policy. He's like Hannity, but on economics. If Trump wants an effective spokesman, he'll do fine. If he wants an actual economist to give him unbiased advice, he's not the guy. Any one with a background in economics/accounting/finance and just a little work - a couple of days or so - could do Kudlow's job just fine on the substance. What he's good at is the PR, talking on TV, charisma.

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    Re: Trump tells people he is selecting Larry Kudlow to replace Gary Cohn

    Quote Originally Posted by JasperL View Post
    I don't think it matters a whole lot, but the problem with Kudlow is he's just a mouthpiece for GOP 'economic' policy. He's like Hannity, but on economics. If Trump wants an effective spokesman, he'll do fine. If he wants an actual economist to give him unbiased advice, he's not the guy. Any one with a background in economics/accounting/finance and just a little work - a couple of days or so - could do Kudlow's job just fine on the substance. What he's good at is the PR, talking on TV, charisma.
    And we know for a fact a big portion of the economy is based on consumer confidence/psychology.
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    Re: Trump tells people he is selecting Larry Kudlow to replace Gary Cohn

    Quote Originally Posted by Bucky View Post
    And we know for a fact a big portion of the economy is based on consumer confidence/psychology.
    You got your chicken and egg backwards. People have confidence in the economy when the economy is actually good -- not that the economy becomes good because some guy on TV tells them it's good.
    "I never meant to say that the Conservatives are generally stupid. I meant to say that stupid people are generally Conservative. I believe that is so obviously and universally admitted a principle that I hardly think any gentleman will deny it." --J.S. Mill

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    Re: Trump tells people he is selecting Larry Kudlow to replace Gary Cohn

    The moral of the story is: if we need to win Pennsylvania, then it doesn't matter what your economic policy is.

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    Re: Trump tells people he is selecting Larry Kudlow to replace Gary Cohn

    Quote Originally Posted by MTAtech View Post
    You got your chicken and egg backwards. People have confidence in the economy when the economy is actually good -- not that the economy becomes good because some guy on TV tells them it's good.
    Then how do it explain this. According to many this is simply a continuation of the Obama economy. He should get the credit, not Trump.

    Yet both consumer and business confidence is way up since the change in administrations.

    Help is out with this conundrum.

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    Re: Trump tells people he is selecting Larry Kudlow to replace Gary Cohn

    Quote Originally Posted by Bucky View Post
    And we know for a fact a big portion of the economy is based on consumer confidence/psychology.
    I'm not a big believer in that, actually. Maybe over very short periods, but fundamentals drive consumer confidence, rather than the reverse.

    Politics is driven by that kind of thing, so Kudlow might be the right pick. I don't think a lot of actual POLICY in D.C. is driven by sober economic analysis, so I'm not concerned about Kudlow's (lack of) qualifications. His job will be to sell the politics of what Republicans want to do based on donors, votes, etc. Fine.

    He's nice to listen to, but I quit caring about his opinion a long time ago, and if you cared before the financial crisis, you should have quit then, because if you listened to him and other Wall Street shills and cheerleaders (his job IMO), you got killed.

    FWIW, a lot of folks are mentioning his drug addiction. I don't think that's a fair criticism. AFAIK, he's been clean for a long time. We should as society reward that and not use it as a club to pummel him with years later. I have my biases there - overcame my own issues - but it's also the right thing to do.

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    Re: Trump tells people he is selecting Larry Kudlow to replace Gary Cohn

    Quote Originally Posted by washunut View Post
    Then how do it explain this. According to many this is simply a continuation of the Obama economy. He should get the credit, not Trump.

    Yet both consumer and business confidence is way up since the change in administrations.

    Help is out with this conundrum.
    It is true that the current economic conditions are a straight line continuation from when Obama presided and consumer confidence is no exception to that fact. Below we can see how consumer confidence grew as the economy grew all through Obama's terms.

    "I never meant to say that the Conservatives are generally stupid. I meant to say that stupid people are generally Conservative. I believe that is so obviously and universally admitted a principle that I hardly think any gentleman will deny it." --J.S. Mill

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    Re: Trump tells people he is selecting Larry Kudlow to replace Gary Cohn

    Quote Originally Posted by MTAtech View Post
    It is true that the current economic conditions are a straight line continuation from when Obama presided and consumer confidence is no exception to that fact. Below we can see how consumer confidence grew as the economy grew all through Obama's terms.

    I agree that consumer confidence moved up from a very low base, once the recession ended with the help of the Obama administration. It continued to rise until about 2015 then seemed to plateau and slip a bit if I am reading the graph correctly. It did however spike about the election. Whether that was because Trump won or Clinton lost is a fair question.

    I don't have the graph of business confidence, but those numbers currently are currently sky high. Those numbers directly impact the decisions CEOs make good or bad. Late 2008 companies concerned about their lines of credit layed-off many thousands of workers in panic. Which is another reason that the recession was so deep and over relatively quickly when the banks were stabilized and the stimulus plan put in place.

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    Re: Trump tells people he is selecting Larry Kudlow to replace Gary Cohn

    Quote Originally Posted by washunut View Post
    I agree that consumer confidence moved up from a very low base, once the recession ended with the help of the Obama administration. It continued to rise until about 2015 then seemed to plateau and slip a bit if I am reading the graph correctly. It did however spike about the election. Whether that was because Trump won or Clinton lost is a fair question.

    I don't have the graph of business confidence, but those numbers currently are currently sky high. Those numbers directly impact the decisions CEOs make good or bad. Late 2008 companies concerned about their lines of credit layed-off many thousands of workers in panic. Which is another reason that the recession was so deep and over relatively quickly when the banks were stabilized and the stimulus plan put in place.
    I wouldn't make a big deal over periodic ups and downs. The general trend is what's important. Ups and downs usually are the random walk that isn't easily explained.
    "I never meant to say that the Conservatives are generally stupid. I meant to say that stupid people are generally Conservative. I believe that is so obviously and universally admitted a principle that I hardly think any gentleman will deny it." --J.S. Mill

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    Re: Trump tells people he is selecting Larry Kudlow to replace Gary Cohn

    Quote Originally Posted by washunut View Post
    I agree that consumer confidence moved up from a very low base, once the recession ended with the help of the Obama administration. It continued to rise until about 2015 then seemed to plateau and slip a bit if I am reading the graph correctly. It did however spike about the election. Whether that was because Trump won or Clinton lost is a fair question.

    I don't have the graph of business confidence, but those numbers currently are currently sky high. Those numbers directly impact the decisions CEOs make good or bad. Late 2008 companies concerned about their lines of credit layed-off many thousands of workers in panic. Which is another reason that the recession was so deep and over relatively quickly when the banks were stabilized and the stimulus plan put in place.
    That's true, but businesses were promised a bunch of stuff with Trump in the WH and the GOP in control of Congress, and got it - the big tax cuts, and regulatory relief, not to mention regulators that wouldn't enforce what rules were left. And they got it. But those things affect fundamentals - cash flow and regulatory costs or risks.

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