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Two polls paint grim national picture for GOP

Old Trapper said:
It has save for three times in 200 years, and 45 elections. Does demonstrate the uselessness of the electoral college.
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No it hasn't. Every presidential election has been decided by the electoral college.
 
jimbo said:
No it hasn't. Every presidential election has been decided by the electoral college.
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But only 5 times has the electoral college went against the popular vote.

I know how desperate the right wing is to rewrite history, however, reality is reality.
 
Old Trapper said:
But only 5 times has the electoral college went against the popular vote.

I know how desperate the right wing is to rewrite history, however, reality is reality.
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5 times the popular vote went against the electoral college. The electoral college still prevailed.

If the left is wanting to hang their chances on the popular vote determining the next President, they need to get moving, they need to get started. Amendment modifications seldom get done in a couple years.
 
jimbo said:
5 times the popular vote went against the electoral college. The electoral college still prevailed.

If the left is wanting to hang their chances on the popular vote determining the next President, they need to get moving, they need to get started. Amendment modifications seldom get done in a couple years.
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Not much chance while Republicans are running Washington deeper into its swamp.

Neither is an absolute change ever going to be likely, i.e., abolishing the EC. Rather, wieghting the popular vote and the EC vote is the more acceptable option, broadly considered. Something like a 50-50 weighting of the EC and the PV. Or 60-40 and so on. Amending the Constitution requires consensus not absolutism. The EC being absolute is a notion whose time has passed. While the state is the basic unit of government in the United States the people are sovereign. It's long past time to effect the balance that is required. Until a new balance is implemented the same two sides will keep getting the same result each time.
 
Sampson Simpson said:
Yes, they were, problem is, people didn't vote because all the polls said she would win.
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This is very true and it was part of Russia's plan, they know Americans will go on with their.daily lives if it appears that the outcome will be what they desire, therefore they won't bother to vote. Nobody really thought the ass hat we have in office really had a chance so they did not bother to vote.

On the other hand Russia spent many millions on trying to make Hilary look like she was a criminal and firing up the anti Clinton base.

The Russians were able to just barely tip the vote to trump by playing Americans. He won Wisconsin by 22,000 votes, (somewhere around 17,000 votes were not cast because of voter suppression).

I wonder how many people would change their votes knowing how trumps trade war is going to **** Harley Davidson, farmers, and other manufacturers ...
 
It's still way too early to make predictions. A lot can and will happen between now and Nov.
 
Tangmo said:
Talking past one another doesn't settle much. Polling is a science and an art. The right rejects both and does it across the board in virtually all thingys. The rightwhinge that's always griping does this. We're talking about the sore winners that keep marching out Clinton even though she's not here. All of this and more occurs over there despite lessons being learned by pollsters and campaigns in 2016 while the RCP polling average was accurate. This is true regardless of how much and how persistently the rightwhinge denies it.

One guy I'd been posting with wants all registered voters included in all polls despite the fact not all registered voters vote and despite the fact voting groups vote in different strengths for various reasons. You don't like that elections officials and pollsters focus on those voters who will vote, i.e., to identify them and to work them either for their opinions and intentions or their actual vote. Campaigns also work to get out more of their voters and to discourage opposition voters in one way or another legit or not legit. Denying polling as a science and an art is not legit.
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Polling is statistic mathematics. it is an analysis of data collected. That data though has to properly represent what you are trying to do.
not enough people and you have a sampling bias. If i interview 2 peoples and say well 50% of people agree that isn't much help now is it?

equally if you interview more people of one group than another then well you have the same scenario.
It has nothing to do with gripping. it has to do with facts that you never want to acknowledge.

just like all the other threads you never wanted to acknowledge facts even when you were proven wrong you still didn't want to acknowledge them.

There is a reason there is a saying lies, damn lies, and statistics.
Hillary learned the hard way that polls are highly inaccurate.

it isn't an art you are 100% wrong on that.
and now you are making stuff up as usual to try and cover for your failure at an argument.
 
ludin said:
Polling is statistic mathematics. it is an analysis of data collected. That data though has to properly represent what you are trying to do.
not enough people and you have a sampling bias. If i interview 2 peoples and say well 50% of people agree that isn't much help now is it?

equally if you interview more people of one group than another then well you have the same scenario.
It has nothing to do with gripping. it has to do with facts that you never want to acknowledge.

just like all the other threads you never wanted to acknowledge facts even when you were proven wrong you still didn't want to acknowledge them.

There is a reason there is a saying lies, damn lies, and statistics.
Hillary learned the hard way that polls are highly inaccurate.

it isn't an art you are 100% wrong on that.
and now you are making stuff up as usual to try and cover for your failure at an argument.
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Polling is a science and an art. The RCP polling average for 2016 was accurate. There are other very recent methods of polling such as done during the 2016 campaign independently by the LA Times and the WaPo: a constant online sample of 3000 participants selected scientifically and responding regularly to questions. It proved to be highly accurate too.

The rightwhinge rejects polls nearly absolutely for two main reasons. One is that the MSM does a lot of 'em and youse hate MSM. Another reason is that the polls represent the majority view which is against youse on almost everything. Hence the right opposes polls as its dogma and no matter what the facts and reality. Which leaves the rightwhinge closed to all arguments in respect of public opinion scientific survey research, i.e., polling and polls.

It's another right wing wall.
 
American said:
The ones who thought they had a chance in Texas.
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...

The elections haven't taken place yet...

Unless you mean the ones who didn't make the primary or runoff cut?
 
I can hardly wait for the Dems to get back in next Jan & fire up the planned impeachment hearings.
 
WCH said:
Try this one.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports®
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Oborosen said:
Don't even try. Its obvious most of these people only listen to the far-left turnout. No matter how flawed their numbers, or their method for polling actually turns out to be.
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Rasmussen has been an outlier poll all along, showing the most favorable Trump ratings out there. Nonetheless, it has Trump at 44-54, favorable, which is also telling of an opposite party landslide. The RCP composite, which includes Rasmussen (which frankly buoys it) has Trump at 40-54.... The RCP or fivethirtyeight because their are composite polls, do the best job of helping you zero in on exactly how the country feels.

https://dyn.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

(Note that Marist actually shows similar results with Rasumussen in their latest poll.)

Rasmussen is the Baghdad Bob of polling for Republicans.

I would suspect (IMHO), as Mueller gets closer to the West Wing (and he will), that Trump's numbers will drop solidly into the thirties, and the Dem/Rep favorably will move profoundly toward the Dems. 2018 will not be pretty for the GOP.
 
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markjs said:
That's fake news, Trump said so. They're doing a TREMENDOUS job, like NOBODY has ever seen! Trump said so, that's good enough for REAL 'muricans! Boy you musta done fell of some filthy librul turnip truck?

I hear tell liberal grown veggies spread gayness, yep, that's right homie sectionals! Not sure what them are but I'm sure it's bad!
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I can see you gave this the deep think it deserved. good job. really. very good job.
 
alright, enough is enough. as a life long democrat i want to be clear. a true republican conservatism, far right or otherwise, is based on small, effective government without social programs. that's a perfectly valid and honorable position to hold. reality is that all sides of the political spectrum are guilty of most of what you are unhappy with. comes from the necessity of appealing to the lcd when campaigning.
 
The Mark said:
...

The elections haven't taken place yet...

Unless you mean the ones who didn't make the primary or runoff cut?
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I think the Dems thought this election is going to be a huge game changer, and that they could turn Texas blue. But I don't think the primary turn out to be the ground swell they hoped for. I think the number are lower then they expected.
 
American said:
I think the Dems thought this election is going to be a huge game changer, and that they could turn Texas blue. But I don't think the primary turn out to be the ground swell they hoped for. I think the number are lower then they expected.
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Ah.

Yes, I've seen some text and video about that - it's higher than ever before in a non-presidential election year, but it's still (at least in the case of the person running for senate against Cruz) about half the republican turnout.
I think it was something like 600,000 democrats turned out, vs 1.3 million republicans.

Now, obviously, in individual races during the general you might get people who voted in the republican primary voting for a democrat, but it's not likely unless the republican candidate is ****in terrible or really messes up.

Edit:
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/7/17092410/texas-primary-2018-turnout-evan-smith

It says 1.5 million republicans voted in the primary, and 1 million democrats.

The other numbers must have been from a specific primary race I saw something on.
 
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