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Showdown Vote in Senate on Friday With Government Shutdown at Stake

One poster who's not a drooling idiot feels there is a greater-than-average chance that Democrats take the fall for a shutdown. While none of us can predict how public political narratives end up going, there are a number of factors that give me reason to think that there is less-than-average chance of this happening:

1)Trump has gone on the record multiple times calling for a shutdown.
2)Republicans control both houses of Congress. The optics of this aren't beneficial to Republicans.
3)Republicans and Democrats created a bipartisan bill that trump rejected.
4)Republicans could have reauthorized CHIP at any time and refused to, only now using it as a bargaining chip
5)DACA is an inherently humanitarian concept that has the sympathy of the overwhelming majority of the public
6)Republicans burned their credibility by repeatedly trying to take away millions of people's health insurance and passing a bill the majority of the public sees as benefiting the rich. Their motives for their part in this shutdown will be seen with a skeptical eye.
7)Trump burned his credibility...period.
I think the Dems will get a moderate majority of the blame.

Why? The simplest message is usually the winning message. And it's very easy to understand the GOP put forth a CR, and the Dems refuse to participate. That's a very short & simple message, easily understood, and easy to sell.

The American people, in general, don't listen to in-depth or long messaging.
 
I think the Dems will get a slight majority of the blame.

Why? The simplest message is usually the winning message. And it's very easy to understand the GOP majority is putting forth a CR, while the Dems refuse to participate. That's a very fort & simple message, easily understood, and easy to sell.

Here is a better one “ how can we trust the Gop’s or trump’s promises to negotiate ? The last bipartisan compromise that was presented to trump was rejected out of hand.”
 
I think the Dems will get a moderate majority of the blame.

Why? The simplest message is usually the winning message. And it's very easy to understand the GOP put forth a CR, and the Dems refuse to participate. That's a very short & simple message, easily understood, and easy to sell.

The American people, in general, don't listen to in-depth or long messaging.

They also don't remember govt shutdowns with any great acuity. Hot story now, next month, next year, not so much...
 
Here is a better one “ how can we trust the Gop’s or trump’s promises to negotiate ? The last bipartisan compromise that was presented to trump was rejected out of hand.”

Right after he said, "put it in front of me, I'll sign it."
 
Here is a better one “ how can we trust the Gop’s or trump’s promises to negotiate ? The last bipartisan compromise that was presented to trump was rejected out of hand.”
I don't see it trumping (sic) the message above.

The one I might use if I were a Dem, is:

"We stand with our Republican colleagues who call for a budget".

It might muddy the waters a bit, but I like it.
 
One poster who's not a drooling idiot feels there is a greater-than-average chance that Democrats take the fall for a shutdown. While none of us can predict how public political narratives end up going, there are a number of factors that give me reason to think that there is less-than-average chance of this happening:

1)Trump has gone on the record multiple times calling for a shutdown.
2)Republicans control both houses of Congress. The optics of this aren't beneficial to Republicans.
3)Republicans and Democrats created a bipartisan bill that trump rejected.
4)Republicans could have reauthorized CHIP at any time and refused to, only now using it as a bargaining chip
5)DACA is an inherently humanitarian concept that has the sympathy of the overwhelming majority of the public
6)Republicans burned their credibility by repeatedly trying to take away millions of people's health insurance and passing a bill the majority of the public sees as benefiting the rich. Their motives for their part in this shutdown will be seen with a skeptical eye.
7)Trump burned his credibility...period.

That they control all Houses is not what will cause a majority of people to blame Republicans. It is the bizarre deal then no deal that was made then turfed by Trump.

Then from what I gather Miller called out for some hardliners including Sen Cotton, undercutting Kelly and a deal on DACA/Immigration/Wall/ Visa Lottery -spending and we now up up with this **** show.

I wonder how much longer Kelly will put up with Miller??
 
Here is a better one “ how can we trust the Gop’s or trump’s promises to negotiate ? The last bipartisan compromise that was presented to trump was rejected out of hand.”

Miller was behind that- calling in hardliners and undercutting Kelly.
I am sure Kelly ain't to happy.
 
Jeff flake, rand paul, lindy gram is why

I say hold a vote, put them all on record and shut the gov down. The American public isn't as gullible as schummer thinks

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Well OK, you are correct, I was getting to that. Apologize for my previous smart-a** approach.
Even the nuclear option wouldn't save this bill in the Senate. Agree with the shutdown; as painful as it will be for some (like me), I feel it is necessary TO GET THESE PEOPLE TO DO THEIR JOBS. Then as far as the voters go, let the chips fall where they may.
But as long as Sen McConnell continues to attempt to push legislation by means other than "regular order," the results will continue to be the same. In this case, a shutdown will force "regular order."
 
They also don't remember govt shutdowns with any great acuity. Hot story now, next month, next year, not so much...
That'a a fair point. In Dec 2013 the GOP were resoundingly blamed for the shutdown, and then went on to win seats in the House & Senate in Nov '14.
 
I think the Dems will get a moderate majority of the blame.

Why? The simplest message is usually the winning message. And it's very easy to understand the GOP put forth a CR, and the Dems refuse to participate. That's a very short & simple message, easily understood, and easy to sell.

The American people, in general, don't listen to in-depth or long messaging.

That they control all Houses is not what will cause a majority of people to blame Republicans. It is the bizarre deal then no deal that was made then turfed by Trump.

Then from what I gather Miller called out for some hardliners including Sen Cotton, undercutting Kelly and a deal on DACA/Immigration/Wall/ Visa Lottery -spending and we now up up with this **** show.

I wonder how much longer Kelly will put up with Miller??

There are legitimate reasons for and against this falling on Democrats. There's nothing more for it than to see how it pans out.
 
Well OK, you are correct, I was getting to that. Apologize for my previous smart-a** approach.
Even the nuclear option wouldn't save this bill in the Senate. Agree with the shutdown; as painful as it will be for some (like me), I feel it is necessary TO GET THESE PEOPLE TO DO THEIR JOBS. Then as far as the voters go, let the chips fall where they may.
But as long as Sen McConnell continues to attempt to push legislation by means other than "regular order," the results will continue to be the same. In this case, a shutdown will force "regular order."
Yes, a big problem is in using reconciliation and not using regular order to govern.

We need to start moving forward together as a country as a whole, not as two disparate Americas.
 
There are legitimate reasons for and against this falling on Democrats. There's nothing more for it than to see how it pans out.

Oh I am sure Dems will wear some, just not the vast majority of it.
 
Well OK, you are correct, I was getting to that. Apologize for my previous smart-a** approach.
Even the nuclear option wouldn't save this bill in the Senate. Agree with the shutdown; as painful as it will be for some (like me), I feel it is necessary TO GET THESE PEOPLE TO DO THEIR JOBS. Then as far as the voters go, let the chips fall where they may.
But as long as Sen McConnell continues to attempt to push legislation by means other than "regular order," the results will continue to be the same. In this case, a shutdown will force "regular order."

I'm all for having every no vote explain to the public why they could not vote to fund the gov another day longer.

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Mitch McConnell, doing his best James Bond villain impersonation:

Screen Shot 2018-01-19 at 1.42.35 PM copy.jpg
 
There are legitimate reasons for and against this falling on Democrats. There's nothing more for it than to see how it pans out.
This out, just minutes ago. It appears the majority of Americans believe keeping the government open is more important than DACA, and a plurality blame the Dems for the shutdown:

Overall, about half of Americans say they would blame either Trump (21%) or his Republican counterparts in Congress (26%) should Congress fail to fund the government by the midnight Friday deadline. About a third, 31%, say they would hold the Democrats in Congress responsible, and another 10% say they'd blame all three groups.

Still, 56% overall say approving a budget agreement to avoid a shutdown is more important than continuing the DACA program, while just 34% choose DACA over a shutdown. Democrats break narrowly in favor of DACA -- 49% say it's more important vs. 42% who say avoiding a shutdown is the priority -- while majorities of both Republicans (75%) and independents (57%) say avoiding a shutdown is more important.

Source: CNN poll: DACA not worth a shutdown, except to Democrats
 
I don't see how focusing only on a minority of the total number required helps anything.

Should be easier gets. One at a time. But I know... it's much easier to sit back and blame the entire other party.
 
Read post 22 by Zyph. Repubs do not have the ability to pass this bill by themselves.

OH WOW. Boy that changes things.

Let's see how good the "Dealmaker" is at crafting a bipartisan bill with the clock ticking!
 
Nah. 37% will believe it...

If Trump said he needed a yardstick in his manly measuring contest, 37% would believe him.

I suspect a six inch ruler would be more than enough.
 
McConnell's squirming right now, as GOP spinners fill the airwaves. No doubt GOPs will go up with their hit ads right away if this falls apart, hiding behind kids and the military.

Good for Donald and Chuck to be speaking in real time though, with Mitch on the phone. Great day to be a Civics teacher. trump doesn't want to mess up his SOTU ...

Yup - the Don does not want to celebrate his first year anniversary with a government shut down as a testimonial to his ineptitude.
 
OH WOW. Boy that changes things.

Let's see how good the "Dealmaker" is at crafting a bipartisan bill with the clock ticking!

Sad part? Trump shouldn't even need to be involved. If it weren't for the childishness of both sides a bi-partisan bill should be attainable without help from anyone.
 
Government shutdowns do not exact electoral tolls on anyone. Hardly anyone even notices them.
 
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