With Submarine Program, N. Korea Signals Surge Toward Full Nuclear Deterrence

Cardinal said:

I'm aware of that, and the article Fiddy linked to is an updated take on the situation, seen from the Chinese perspective.

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The scenario for the Chinese isn't any better than ours for the most part.

I believe fat boy would launch his missiles west for protection, and south for spite..

Cardinal said:

The situation has dramatically degraded since China claimed it would declare war on the United States if we attacked first. If that article is anything to go by, a sense of inevitability is setting in.

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I think it's more multi-faceted than that. There is probably no real sense of inevitability, but a realization that its options grow smaller and tougher, see: https://asia.nikkei.com/Features/Looking-ahead-2-2018/Risk-of-US-North-Korea-clash-increasing-China-adviser-Jia. All in all, we are probably going to have a 2018 with serious tensions, with risk of escalation, but will probably end up going as we are now.

Fiddytree said:

I think it's more multi-faceted than that. There is probably no real sense of inevitability, but a realization that its options grow smaller and tougher. All in all, we are probably going to have a 2018 with serious tensions, with risk of escalation, but will probably end up going as we are now.

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The notion that the only nation ever to unleash nuclear WMD's on a cilvilian population will decide who has them and who does not is madness and folly.

Fenton Lum said:

The notion that the only nation ever to unleash nuclear WMD's on a cilvilian population will decide who has them and who does not is madness and folly.

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Be that as it may, nuclear weapons are a bit too serious to think about keeping score in a traditional manner.


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Fiddytree said:

Be that as it may, nuclear weapons are a bit too serious to think about keeping score in a traditional manner.


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Odd. We sold them nuclear reactors in an utterly bipartisan deal wrapped up a mere two years before we placed them on an "axis of evil" list. Initiated under Clinton, followed though on under Bush. Sold from a company Rumsfeld had once sat on the board of directors of. With US taxpayer funded assistance provided by Bush. You helped pay for them.

Course that was before we learned of all those mineral reserves they were sitting on. Like Afghanistan.

RetiredUSN said:

Regardless of what anyone thinks as far as civilian casualties, there is going to be another big conflict.

My "pie in the sky" wish is a Chinese invasion.

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China invaded Korea in the early 1950s but it is unlikely to happen again. They like having the Hermit Kingdom on their border. They would be very uncomfortable with a democratic, western nation there instead.

More editorial commentary about secret U.S.-China talks, risks of alienating South Korea and Japan.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Ec...old-secret-talks-over-the-North-Korean-crisis

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Fiddytree said:

And still the risk for full-blown war with China.

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Our use of nuclear weapons against NK , even of the smaller, tactical kind, would have potentially serious consequences for China because of its close proximity to some strategic military targets in the northern part of the country. The Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site is one such site that we might target. Situated in the north & close to China, the NKs have tunneled extensively into Mount Mantap. There have been at least 2 tunnel collapses: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punggye-ri_Nuclear_Test_Site. The Chinese are concerned that the mountain could collapse & spread radioactive contamination over the entire Northern Hemisphere. Even a tactical nuke strike there could accomplish just that collapse with immeasurable consequences.