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Study: Obamacare Is Not Collapsing

Bronze plans are generally good for two kinds of people: those who don't expect to have medical expenses and prefer a catastrophic plan, and those who expect to have a lot of health expenses (given the way the OOP max works). Of course the least expensive premium plan has the highest deductible, that's the way it always works.

Most people buy above the bronze tier (silver plans or above). But bronze plans are available for those who are comfortable trading a higher deductible for a lower premium. And silver plans are more likely to carve services--like PCP office visits--out of the deductible, meaning you can use them without paying full freight even if you haven't hit your deductible yet. It's a market: if you want a more generous plan, they're available.

And the OOP max on that plan is $500 above the deductible. Meaning you only pay 50% coinsurance on $1,000 in expenses beyond the deductible. After that you pay zero. All plans have an OOP max (the value of which is capped by statute), meaning the different metal tiers differ by: 1) the value of that OOP max, and 2) how much of it they put into the deductible vs. co-insurance and co-pays.

Regardless of that there is no benefit to the plan until you have spent over $11k for the year. A silver plan has a lower deductible. the other plan I mentioned with the lower deductible of 2500 but a $551.04 premium is still over 9k before you would get a benefit. for a person like me who makes just a bit over the amount to get a subsidy that means that I would spend between 20 and 25% of my income on health insurance, before I got a benefit from it. none of those plans are usable to me. Luckily I have a plan through work that is more affordable. 128$ a month premium a 2600 deductible .. but still over a period of 3 years my insurance has covered a total of about $150. Health insurance is a mechanism to keep us poor.
 
The average yearly expenditure on healthcare for an American is over $10,000. In 2012, the average yearly expenditure for people between 45 and 64 was $9500 according to CMS. Also according to CMS, the average expenditure for a 19-44 y/o was ~$4500. Since you said a low 40's age, I included both, but you can roughly judge the average expenditure to be between those numbers. How cheap can you make insurance when healthcare costs so much here?

This is the problem with Obamacare and the problem with all the hysterical opposition to Obamacare. The root cause of America's healthcare problems were access to insurance coverage AND the extremely high cost of care thats going up every year. Obamacare addressed the first problem decently well, but it can't do much about the second even though many of its hundreds of pages are devoted to a litany of small cost reduction measures. Repealing Obamacare makes insurance cheaper for people who are unlikely to need it and impossibly expensive for people who likely would need it. This isn't a solution. Its an inhuman nightmare. Truly. I think there are some measures that could be enacted to help lower costs for people who don't qualify for the subsidies on the individual markets, but its not going to be significant while healthcare costs are so high.

When you say expenditure are you including premiums? because outside of premiums my average expenditure per year is less than 1k$ I go to a doctor a couple times a year and that's about it. maybe one prescription annually on average.
 
As a libertarian, you must understand that you get what you pay for. If you want "the cheapest plan" then the balance is a high deductible. If you don't want a high deductible, then you pay a higher premium.

Moreover, those premiums are before any subsidy that you may be eligible for based upon your income.

As I said in response to another I make just over the amount to qualify for any subsidies. And its either high premium and very high deductible or very high premium and and kind of high deductible. when teh ACA passed the 'cheapest plans' which were similar to today for me were about $50 a month. now they are over $300 a month.
 
The democrats sabotaged the program, we are just living with it brother. It wasn't working. I don't know about you, but before the last election, my premiums were going up, my services down. My company has worse insurance than before.

"dems sabotaging your employer subsidized healthcare" is a baseless narrative. Republicans sabotaging Obamacare is just a fact. So we're not having a discussion. You're simply using my posts as an excuse to post narratives.

I am not going to go into your joke about death panels and no one will pay. Of course we will pay, the government is making us. Of course there will be death panels once we get single payer. Ask Britain. Don't piss on my head and tell me it's raining.

Calling the fact that republicans and the conservative media spewed the ridiculous and asinine narrative about death panels a joke only confirms the fact that you're not here to have a discussion.

About four in 10 U.S. adults believe that President Obama's healthcare reform law will create "death panels" to decide patients' fitness for care, according to a new Associated Press-GfK survey.

Poll: Four in 10 believe in Obama healthcare law

So my point still stands, if you don't want single payer please tell Trump and republicans to stop sabotaging Obamacare.
 
Study: Obamacare Is Not Collapsing




What is hurting some ACA exchanges is the uncertainty injected into the healthcare structure by Trump and hard conservatives in the GOP majority Congress. Health insurance companies usually make policy/pricing changes today that are based on 12 month industry analyst predictions. But this is impossible when the government purposefully injects uncertainty into the equations. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R/KY) has far less than the number of GOP votes necessary to pass the Better Care Reconciliation Act of 2017. If a compromise cannot be reached in the near term, McConnell will be forced to consider Democrat amendments to craft a passable bill.

Additional: Individual Insurance Market Performance in Early 2017

Obamacare was collapsing before Trump ever entered the picture. It has been getting worse every year. 2017-2018 is no different.
 
Even if they did "stop sabotaging" it, it's still a failure. Premiums will continue to go up.

Seems a rather simple metric to determine failure. But if your concern is about premiums then you should be even more mad at republicans. Their sabotage did and will increase premiums. If you don't want single payer and even higher premiums please tell Trump and republicans to stop sabotaging Obamacare. It really is that simple.
 
Regardless of that there is no benefit to the plan until you have spent over $11k for the year. A silver plan has a lower deductible. the other plan I mentioned with the lower deductible of 2500 but a $551.04 premium is still over 9k before you would get a benefit.

First of all, not really.

1) Your scenario there assumes you're accessing services in December, after you've paid all your premiums. In reality, you can use them right away, after only a single payment.

2) I looked up the summary of benefits for the plan you posted--which, oddly enough, was the second cheapest plan available in the market, not the very cheapest (I suspect you hit the "simple choice" option when viewing plans). You can indeed access certain services under the deductible, even in that bronze plan: "Ded waived for first 3 Primary Care OV. Ded waived for Preventive Services, Generic Drugs, Preventive Drugs, Family Planning, Pediatric Vision, and OP MH/SA." In other words, your first three primary care visits are paid for (subject to the copay) long before you exhaust your deductible.

As for silver plans, the cheapest plan for the rating area you're looking at and the age you entered is a Molina plan for $418.30/month and a deductible of $2,400 (the deductible applies only to inpatient and outpatient hospital care). In other words, for $984 more in premiums than the bronze plan you posted, you can get a $4,250 reduction in your deductible. If you're intending to use a moderate amount of services, seems like a no-brainer.

But if you plan to hit the OOP max (which is the same for both plans), you're better off with bronze anyway since premiums + OOP max are lower. That said, if your health expenses are that high, you're almost certainly a winner under the ACA so it's unclear what you're complaining about.

for a person like me who makes just a bit over the amount to get a subsidy that means that I would spend between 20 and 25% of my income on health insurance, before I got a benefit from it. none of those plans are usable to me. Luckily I have a plan through work that is more affordable. 128$ a month premium a 2600 deductible .. but still over a period of 3 years my insurance has covered a total of about $150. Health insurance is a mechanism to keep us poor.

Employers tend to pay about 72% of the premium for employer-based plans. If that holds in your case, the real total premium for that plan is closer to $460/month. For less than that, you could buy a SelectHealth silver plan in the exchange with a $1,500 deductible (SelectHealth is the insurance arm of Intermountain, one of the more famous integrated delivery systems in the country).

You're comparing a heavily subsidized employer plan to an unsubsidized plan in the open market, which isn't quite fair. Only if you compare the total premiums of both plans will you get a clear picture.
 
When you say expenditure are you including premiums? because outside of premiums my average expenditure per year is less than 1k$ I go to a doctor a couple times a year and that's about it. maybe one prescription annually on average.

Yes. It is the combination of premiums, out of pocket costs, and what is paid for by the insurance company. Its total healthcare expenditures.

The numbers are in excel files so they are a little hard to get to but you can sort through them individually by source as well.

https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statis...d-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/index.html
 
The ACA is not collapsing, but lets agree that it needs fixing.
 
Has anyone saved $2500 a year because of the ACA? I'd say it's the other way around for most people. How many times did they vote to repeal it when they knew Obama would veto it? Now, they haven't once voted to repeal it with Trump in office

That says to me that Republicans just can't let go of their new found power over us. This is the healthcare you get (not them) and, if you're lucky, we'll add to it here and there, but it will cost you! Now, say thank you sir, may I have another?
 
Other headlines on that page...

The Donald Trump Jr. emails change everything

Legal experts say Donald Trump Jr has just confessed to a federal crime

The other shoe has fallen, and the Trump presidency may fall with it

We are past the point of innocent explanations on Trump and Russia

Donald Trump Jr. is just staggeringly incompetent


Nah, no bias on that site!

You might want to hold off a bit on declaring that Obamacare has all-of-a-sudden become solvent. Has the debt disappeared because of it too? Maybe that's next weeks headline.

And then there's the good old CBO, they'll spit out whatever you want. Or don't want.
 
"dems sabotaging your employer subsidized healthcare" is a baseless narrative. Republicans sabotaging Obamacare is just a fact. So we're not having a discussion. You're simply using my posts as an excuse to post narratives.



Calling the fact that republicans and the conservative media spewed the ridiculous and asinine narrative about death panels a joke only confirms the fact that you're not here to have a discussion.



So my point still stands, if you don't want single payer please tell Trump and republicans to stop sabotaging Obamacare.

You have not point. You are a liberal talking point. Dems messing up health care isn't a narrative. It is a fact. Obamacare messed up this countries health care. If you can't admit that, then you right, there is no point to have a discussion.

You brought up death panels, not me. Grow up guy.

I am sure you still have no point.
 
If you don't want single payer please tell Trump and republicans to stop sabotaging Obamacare. It really is that simple.

What sabotage? The law is the same as it was whenObama was president.
 
MTAtech said:
Oh really. Forgive the CBO for disagreeing.
The CBO's other bombshell: the Affordable Care Act isn't imploding
Other headlines on that page...

The Donald Trump Jr. emails change everything

Legal experts say Donald Trump Jr has just confessed to a federal crime

The other shoe has fallen, and the Trump presidency may fall with it

We are past the point of innocent explanations on Trump and Russia

Donald Trump Jr. is just staggeringly incompetent


Nah, no bias on that site!

You might want to hold off a bit on declaring that Obamacare has all-of-a-sudden become solvent. Has the debt disappeared because of it too? Maybe that's next weeks headline.

And then there's the good old CBO, they'll spit out whatever you want. Or don't want.
While you may try to make the case that VOX has a liberal viewpoint you can't ignore that what Vox reported, that the CBO said that the ACA is stable, is an unbiased fact. Vox provides the actual quote from the CBO report:

Under current law, most subsidized enrollees purchasing health insurance coverage in the nongroup market are largely insulated from increases in premiums because their out-of-pocket payments for premiums are based on a percentage of their income; the government pays the difference. The subsidies to purchase coverage combined with the penalties paid by uninsured people stemming from the individual mandate are anticipated to cause sufficient demand for insurance by people with low health care expenditures for the market to be stable.
So, unless you are saying there is a vast liberal conspiracy to hide ACA's implosion, with the culprits being Vox, the CBO, Michael Moore and arithmetic, you completely chose not to understand the point here.
 
VOX? Really, VOX? CBO estimates the future. History has already shown that the market has been collapsing for years, just ask Nevada and many other places who were only down to one insurer and may be staring at zero in 2018. Of course it has gotten worse under Trump, because it has already been on a downward spiral.
See post number 40, I already addressed Vox and that link has the actual text of the CBO, which doesn't say what you want it to say.
 
While you may try to make the case that VOX has a liberal viewpoint you can't ignore that what Vox reported, that the CBO said that the ACA is stable, is an unbiased fact. Vox provides the actual quote from the CBO report:

So, unless you are saying there is a vast liberal conspiracy to hide ACA's implosion, with the culprits being Vox, the CBO, Michael Moore and arithmetic, you completely chose not to understand the point here.

Not much to go on there, all it says is that it's "anticipated" to remain stable. Based on what? The CBO only goes on the info that they are given, not necessarily the facts. So this really doesn't tell us much at all.
 
The simple fact of the matter is that the cost of healthcare is too high for the average American to afford. The cost of health insurance is but a side effect of that fact.

Obamacare and every replacement plan for Obamacare that I have seen fail to address the root of the problem... the cost of healthCARE is too high and it's getting worse.
 
The simple fact of the matter is that the cost of healthcare is too high for the average American to afford. The cost of health insurance is but a side effect of that fact.

Obamacare and every replacement plan for Obamacare that I have seen fail to address the root of the problem... the cost of healthCARE is too high and it's getting worse.

And the 'healthcare' plans of the GOP Congress exacerbate our national healthcare problems and turn bad into terrible.
 
And the 'healthcare' plans of the GOP Congress exacerbate our national healthcare problems and turn bad into terrible.

It's terrible already and the GOP plans don't do anything to make it any better. Until the cost of care is addressed nothing is going to make it better.
 
The simple fact of the matter is that the cost of healthcare is too high for the average American to afford. The cost of health insurance is but a side effect of that fact.

Obamacare and every replacement plan for Obamacare that I have seen fail to address the root of the problem... the cost of healthCARE is too high and it's getting worse.

 
Has anyone saved $2500 a year because of the ACA? I'd say it's the other way around for most people. How many times did they vote to repeal it when they knew Obama would veto it? Now, they haven't once voted to repeal it with Trump in office

That says to me that Republicans just can't let go of their new found power over us. This is the healthcare you get (not them) and, if you're lucky, we'll add to it here and there, but it will cost you! Now, say thank you sir, may I have another?

That’s pretty funny. It tells me that they’ve lied nonstop for 7 years and you’ll look for any excuse to not acknowledge that. We tried to tell you but you wouldn’t listen. And as long as you continue to look for any excuse to believe republicans on Obamacare you will find one.
 
You have not point. You are a liberal talking point. Dems messing up health care isn't a narrative. It is a fact. Obamacare messed up this countries health care. If you can't admit that, then you right, there is no point to have a discussion.

You brought up death panels, not me. Grow up guy.

I am sure you still have no point.

And out comes the incoherent double spaced reply. anyhoo BS (perfect initials I might add), see how you are deflecting again from the fact that your conservative masters told you there were death panels. And you are deflecting in an incoherent manner. I brought up “death panels” along with numerous other official lying conservative narratives to question the integrity of the people you continue to obediently believe. “something something death panels joke” makes no sense and does not refute my point. Actually, by trying to deflect from it proves even you know it was a ridiculous and asinine lie. But again, your deflection was incoherent.

And again, republican’s attempts to sabotage Obamacare by driving up premiums is documented. Your point about your employer subsidized healthcare is neither believable nor relevant. So my point still stands in spite of your incoherent and pointless deflections, if you don’t want single payer please tell Trump and republicans to stop sabotaging it.
 
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