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US economic growth weakened to 0.7 percent in first quarter

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prometeus

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Fake News. More lies from the Democrats and the MSM. Sad!
 
prometeus said:
US economic growth weakened to 0.7 percent in first quarterMaking America great again...
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I'll save the citizens of Trump nation the wear and tear on their typing fingers so I'll post on all of their behalfs.

But....HILLARY!
This is all Obama's fault.
Fake news!
HILLARY!
The MSM is mean to Trump.
HILLARY!
The Mexicans are stealing our blueberry picking jobs and wrecking our economy.
Damn Muslims.
HILLARY!
Buy Ivanka's shoes.
HILLARY!
 
tres borrachos said:
I'll save the citizens of Trump nation the wear and tear on their typing fingers so I'll post on all of their behalfs.

But....HILLARY!
This is all Obama's fault.
Fake news!
HILLARY!
The MSM is mean to Trump.
HILLARY!
The Mexicans are stealing our blueberry picking jobs and wrecking our economy.
Damn Muslims.
HILLARY!
Buy Ivanka's shoes.
HILLARY!
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Partisan hackery...

you forgot that
 
Time to blame Obama since bad results means this is still his economy. The "Trump bump" will still be credited to him though.
 
Are the Reps tired of winning yet?
 
And remember, Trump took credit for the January job's numbers.

Trump takes credit for strong January jobs numbers - CBS News

That means he has taken responsibility for the economy from that moment.

That means that this number is mostly (he did not enter office until January 20) his responsibility.


Also, the main reason for the poor growth is apparently due to very poor consumer spending.

So that removes the 'lagging indicator' nonsense some Trumpbots are already trying to spin this as.

Consumer spending is a real time indicator. They spend when they feel good. They do not when they feel bad/are broke. There is little/no 'lag'. They do not say 'Hmmm...I felt lousy last month - but good this month. So I will spend like I feel lousy about the economy - even though I feel good about it right now.' That makes no sense.

The economy was lousy in Q1 mostly because it was lousy in Q1 - not because it lagged lousy from 2016 Q4.

This lousy number is mostly Trump's baby...period.


Once again, I have ZERO loyalty to any political party or movement.
 
It seems we're in an odd situation. Hard numbers (like GDP or employment) are kind of in the middle, and soft numbers (like consumer confidence) were much better. People say they're feeling more upbeat, but their spending doesn't reflect that same optimism.

That said, IMO it's still too early to attribute this to Trump. Even if he had actually passed any legislation, it wouldn't have taken effect during Q1. And as per usual, there are lots of factors that aren't attributable to any President, such as milder weather resulting in lower energy spending, or slowing car sales (a longer-term trend).

The only attribution I'd ascribe to Trump is that his actions in regards to immigration issues, and his nationalistic / nativistic impulses in general, are negatively affecting tourism. However, I don't think that would cost more than, oh, 20-25 basis points? It could have a bigger impact in the summer.
 
Duck-Sauce-Charlie-Sheen-Spinstyles-Bi-Winning-Edit.jpg
 
danarhea said:
We are still under the Obama budget until October this year. It pisses me off to see people blaming Trump for what lays at Obama's feet as much as it pisses me off to see Trump taking credit for what happened as a result of Obama's term.

So yes, this is quite dishonest.
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I gotta disagree with you here.

60+% of the GDP is consumer spending. Consumer spending is a leading indicator. And consumer spending usually has very little to do with the budget. It is more to do with how the consumer feels about the economy and/or what financial situation they are in.
Especially big ticket items.
And this last quarter was the worst 1/4 for consumer spending since 2009. That will have little to do with the budget.

US GDP Collapses To 0.7%, Lowest In Three Years; Worst Personal Spending Since 2009 | Zero Hedge

That is undoubtedly the principle reason for the lousy Q1 number.

Now, since Trump did not take office until Jan. 20, he cannot be blamed for the entire number.

But he did take credit for the January jobs number (which was good)...so he cannot turn around and not take responsibility for the bad Q1 GDP growth number - he cannot have it both ways.

Trump takes credit for strong January jobs numbers - CBS News

Since consumer spending is 60+% of the GDP and since consumer spending was the worst since 2009 in Q1 AND since retail sales/consumer spending is a leading indicator - I think it is fair to lay the majority (though not all) of the responsibility for the lousy Q1 number to Trump (especially since he took responsibility for the great January jobs number).
 
If you're gonna call good economic news "the Trump Bump", you have to call bad news "the Trump Slump".
 
The economy is bigger than the president. This is why I don't blame Obama for all of the slow growth and I won't give Trump all of the credit if things pick up later in the year. If he does something truly drastic, maybe he'll get a little more credit, but lez be honest. That seems unlikely at this point.
 
joG said:
We should hardly be surprised. Moreover it will be astounding, if the economy doesn't hit serious problems after the last two years of fiscal irresponsibility. If we are unlucky, it could be as bad as the Clinton induced mess in 2000.
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No ****, really?
 
Growth numbers are a lagging indicator - duh.

Just remember who was there prior to that quarter.
 
sanman said:
Growth numbers are a lagging indicator - duh.

Just remember who was there prior to that quarter.
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Wrong...not when the principle reason for the low number is the lowest consumer spending since '09.

Overall GDP can be a lagging indicator when the numbers are not definitive. But the consumer spending for Q1 is EXTREMELY definitive.

And consumer spending is NOT a lagging indicator...it is a leading indicator.

And remember, over 60% of the GDP is made up of consumer spending.


There is NO WAY this number will be revised much upwards...guaranteed.

It might go up a bit (or it could go down a bit)...but it is virtually impossible (short of bureaucratic corruption) that this number will come out anything but bad for Trump.


BTW - the fact that you jump on the 'lagging indicator' bandwagon shows that you realize it is mostly Trump's responsibility for this Q1 number...otherwise, you would have mentioned that and not cared about the number. The fact that you do care VERY much about the number proves your concern (being a Trumpbot apparently) that this number will make your messiah look bad.

Oh don't worry...it will....guaranteed.


Once again, I have ZERO loyalty to any political party or movement.
 
First quarter GDP, 0.7%.

It's all yours, Donald. If this was your show, you'd be fired.
 
United States GDP Growth Rate | 1947-2017 | Data | Chart | Calendar
Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) contributed 0.23 percentage points to growth (2.40 percent in the previous quarter) and rose 0.3 percent (3.5 percent in the previous quarter). Spending fell for durable goods (-2.5 percent from 11.4 percent in Q4 2016) and slowed for both nondurable goods (1.5 percent from 3.3 percent) and services (0.4 percent from 2.4 percent).

Fixed investment added 0.69 percentage points to growth (1.47 percentage points in the previous quarter) and increased 4.3 percent, compared to a 9.4 percent expansion in the previous period.

By contrast, private inventories subtracted 0.93 percentage points to growth, after contributing 1.01 percentage points in the previous period.
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These items are sentiment-driven. They do not depend on a new government budget being passed.

Government spending and investment subtracted 0.30 percentage points to growth (0.03 percent in the previous period) and contracted 1.7 percent (0.2 percent in Q4).
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This item is much more directly tied to the government budget.

Meanwhile, exports jumped 5.8 percent, reversing a 4.5 percent drop in the previous quarter and imports increased at a slower 4.1 percent (9 percent in Q4), bringing the impact from trade to 0.07 percent (-1.82 percent in the previous quarter).
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And this item is likely tied to the protectionist policies supported by Trump.

It's quite easy to see how Trump could have some impact on the economy. There are many people in the country who have become extremely depressed because of the outcome of the election.
 
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