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Trump's plans could double US GDP growth by 2018, Deutsche Bank says

WCH said:
Unless I get some unforeseen bump in my income, I hope inflation is kept to a minimum.
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Agreed. Inflation comes with it's own set of problems and issues that would have to be addressed.
 
eohrnberger said:
Agreed. Inflation comes with it's own set of problems and issues that would have to be addressed.
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A modest uptick in inflation would be a welcome development. As it stands, inflation measured from personal consumption expenditures is well below the historic average, far less than the stagflation augmented average, and currently in line with the post-recession average.

fredgraph.png


Of course, inflation is driven by wage growth, and realized through price increases that result from wage growth. In a society with high levels of household debt liabilities, inflation levels that fluctuate in a band around the stagflation augmented average would actually be a boost for consumer confidence and aggregate demand. Debt service as a percentage of disposable income would decrease, freeing up considerable cash flow.
 
Kushinator said:
A modest uptick in inflation would be a welcome development. As it stands, inflation measured from personal consumption expenditures is well below the historic average, far less than the stagflation augmented average, and currently in line with the post-recession average.

fredgraph.png


Of course, inflation is driven by wage growth, and realized through price increases that result from wage growth. In a society with high levels of household debt liabilities, inflation levels that fluctuate in a band around the stagflation augmented average would actually be a boost for consumer confidence and aggregate demand. Debt service as a percentage of disposable income would decrease, freeing up considerable cash flow.
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Agreed. I'm not opposed to the conclusion that "A modest uptick in inflation would be a welcome development." so long as the commensurate wage adjustments are also made, but from my understanding that'll be a market force that businesses won't be able to ignore and will have to address.
 
Kushinator said:
Enacting a policy of permanent fiscal stimulus would surely boost economic output. With little means of obstruction in his path, combined with some powerful bargaining chips (the SCOTUS nomination comes first to mind), U.S. GDP can very will see a massive upswing during the initial phase of his presidency. However, given that labor market slack is minimal, how beneficial will persistent deficits that flirt with $1 trillion annually be for long term economic growth? If fiscal policy isn't cut back during periods of heavy economic growth, it has great potential to crowd out private investment, and severely reduce economic efficiency in the medium to long term.
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I've said several times on the board we can indeed Pump growth higher with stimulus.
We can also be on steroids for a year and feel better (or hit 70 Home Runs), but it doesn't mean that's a good idea either.

With boomers dropping out of the workforce, and Europe and Japan dead in the water growth-wise and demographically, how does high growth work exactly?
4% growth would probably produce wild inflation, and an eventual crash as the yearly stimulus is gradually overcome by the accumulating debt.
That's what happened in 1987, 7 years into Reagan's tax cut, and in 2007/8 , the same amount of time in W's tax cut.

Considering First World demographic realities, 2% growth is not that bad, and perhaps more in line with what's achievable without eventually paying the piper/Doubling down on debt to truly dangerous levels.

But I do believe there is some positive 'stimulus' possible, but not by Across the board or top down Tax cuts.
I would do the opposite of Trump, raise taxes, but only at the top, with one or two 'Buffett Brackets.'
Perhaps 40% at 1 Mil, 50% at 5/10 Mil and Earmark that money for Infrastructure spending.
Kinda like Forced investment of Billions stuck in .1% T bills.
It will create jobs and velocity.
Right now there is no velocity (or reason to invest) because wealth disparity is too high, and there is no incentive to build a factory without the customers for it's goods. Unless, at the moment, it's Private (Lear) Jets.
 
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DA60 said:
Which means it is a totally worthless report...not that I regret you posting it.

ANYTHING can 'potentially' happen.

Sounds like this author was told by his/her superiors to write a positive report about America's future under Trump - and he/she threw in the 'potential' part to cover his butt.
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Most financial reports are worthless and biased when they describe what the govt is doing.
 
eohrnberger said:
Agreed. I'm not opposed to the conclusion that "A modest uptick in inflation would be a welcome development." so long as the commensurate wage adjustments are also made, but from my understanding that'll be a market force that businesses won't be able to ignore and will have to address.
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Inflation is so very, very, very, very, very, very much better than deflation.

Hyperinflation is not a serious concern for our economy based on any serious economic policy.
 
I'll believe that when me sh*t turns purple and smells like rainbow sherbet.
 
Absentglare said:
Inflation is so very, very, very, very, very, very much better than deflation.

Hyperinflation is not a serious concern for our economy based on any serious economic policy.
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No argument from me on that.
 
Ikari said:
Oh, I'm sure that trickle down will ensure that you get something, right?
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Libs continue hoping for the worst from trump
 
mbig said:
I've said several times on the board we can indeed Pump growth higher with stimulus.
We can also be on steroids for a year and feel better (or hit 70 Home Runs), but it doesn't mean that's a good idea either.

With boomers dropping out of the workforce, and Europe and Japan dead in the water growth-wise and demographically, how does high growth work exactly?
4% growth would probably produce wild inflation, and an eventual crash as the yearly stimulus is gradually overcome by the accumulating debt.
That's what happened in 1987, 7 years into Reagan's tax cut, and in 2007/8 , the same amount of time in W's tax cut.

Considering First World demographic realities, 2% growth is not that bad, and perhaps more in line with what's achievable without eventually paying the piper/Doubling down on debt to truly dangerous levels.

But I do believe there is some positive 'stimulus' possible, but not by Across the board or top down Tax cuts.
I would do the opposite of Trump, raise taxes, but only at the top, with one or two 'Buffett Brackets.'
Perhaps 40% at 1 Mil, 50% at 5/10 Mil and Earmark that money for Infrastructure spending.
Kinda like Forced investment of Billions stuck in .1% T bills.
It will create jobs and velocity.
Right now there is no velocity (or reason to invest) because wealth disparity is too high, and there is no incentive to build a factory without the customers for it's goods. Unless, at the moment, it's Private (Lear) Jets.
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I very much agree with your last paragraph, especially in your noticing we are lacking in velocity.

M2 tells us all we need to know!

Velocity-Of-Money-M21-425x282.jpg
 
Chomsky said:
I very much agree with your last paragraph, especially in your noticing we are lacking in velocity.

M2 tells us all we need to know!

View attachment 67212265
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It should be noted that current M2 velocity is the result of M2 growth exceeding GDP growth. Essentially, new money that is being created is not being turned over in the real economy.
 
Manc Skipper said:
It seems Golden Boy has a penchant for trickle down, if reports are to be believed!
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Seems to me there isn't much of a meaningful difference between Bushonomics, Reaganomics and Centre-nomics (despite the fact the latter is slightly more liberal, is still just as friendly to elites and mega-corporations at the expense of the working class).
 
hit a button on accident
 
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