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Some of this is repeated from #96 as I thought I lost that post.
The numbers that have been posted for GOP incumbent Senators and trump in OH, NC, FL, IA, WI, PA, GA, and AZ clearly show the reverse coattail effect I spoke of in June before disappearing for 5 months.
I haven't seen the full House numbers yet but the pattern appears the same. Paul Ryan has no idea what he's talking about with trump's coattail effect, except in isolated races like Sen. Blunt barely winning.
The total GOP votes for the House is actually greater than the DEMs in 2016 as compared to the large loss in 2012 .
I totally agree on the reverse coat tails. Republican House candidates defeated the Democratic House candidates 49.9-47.3 in the total popular vote whereas Clinton beat Trump 48.1-46.1. House Republican candidates received 3.8% higher vote total than Trump, but the House Democrats also beat Hillary Clinton by 1.2. points.
For the senate here is a good article and it has a table on most Republican senate candidates doing better than Trump.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...e-senate-popular-vote/?utm_term=.5352f5f332cf