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The odds that someone who doesn't know the industry, the organization or have the requisite management skills will be an effective leader are slim. Not zero to be sure, but he's already got two strikes against him right out of the gate.
Neither you nor anyone else have actually established that the above statement is valid. You only make uneducated assumptions about the nature of Carson's duties as director of pediatric neurology, and ignorant presumptions of Carson's level of understanding of HUD and ability to lead and manage people.
I assert that there is no unique talent necessary to run HUD versus running the Department of Pediatric Neurology at Johns Hopkins, and no demonstrable proof that Carson is unfit for the position or incapable of doing the job. Hand waving and generalities don't pass as proof.
Look at most of the CEO hirings that happen. The vast majority have the knowledge and skillsets I laid out. Don't you wonder why that is? Sure many bad CEOs have those same skills but that simply means being a good CEO isn't easy even when you're prepared for it. How much harder for someone ill prepared for the task.
Again, you make gratuitous assertions that you then don't back up. Let's say for the sake of argument that the vast majority of CEOs are selected as you have stated... but since the vast majority of businesses fail your assertion would also mean that the selection process leads to failure more often than success... so even accepting your argument (which I don't) the numbers don't add up to "how it's always done" being the best way to choose a leader.