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CNN Poll: Trump Moves Ahead of Clinton

JoeTrumps

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Presidential poll: Donald Trump pulls ahead of Hillary Clinton - CNN.com

Washington (CNN)--Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton start the race to November 8 on essentially even ground, with Trump edging Clinton by a scant two points among likely voters, and the contest sparking sharp divisions along demographic lines in a new CNN/ORC Poll.
Trump tops Clinton 45% to 43% in the new survey, with Libertarian Gary Johnson standing at 7% among likely voters in this poll and the Green Party's Jill Stein at just 2%.



I pretty much knew it would be close. however I've been saying all along the debates will be the deciding factor. whoever comes out of those with the momentum will win the election. we shall see.
 
Not sure I really buy the poll, the aggregate across more than one poll shows Hillary is somewhere in the +3 range. Granted the gap has fallen from from a week or so back where she was +6 or more, but there is still much more to go through before we have a indication that Trump can stay out front of Hillary over a long term.

Namely... the debates (and it is not going to be pretty.)

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton
 
Not sure I really buy the poll, the aggregate across more than one poll shows Hillary is somewhere in the +3 range. Granted the gap has fallen from from a week or so back where she was +6 or more, but there is still much more to go through before we have a indication that Trump can stay out front of Hillary over a long term.

Namely... the debates (and it is not going to be pretty.)

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

That 3 percent is mentioned in the OP's article.
 
That 3 percent is mentioned in the OP's article.

Not saying otherwise. But when one poll gets a different result than both the aggregate and the other polls individually (trend,) we need to question something. Why would we not?
 
Presidential poll: Donald Trump pulls ahead of Hillary Clinton - CNN.com


I pretty much knew it would be close. however I've been saying all along the debates will be the deciding factor. whoever comes out of those with the momentum will win the election. we shall see.

Everyone thinks that Trump will do well in the debates, everyone thinks he will have a Ronald Reagan moment during them. Though I haven't seen this capacity from him, he's either absent from them or rather mellow. Hillary's people are going on the offensive for the first time in the debates. They are training her to attack, attack, attack and to get under his skin. If the Benghazi hearings prove anything, it's Hillary knows how to debate, hold her ground, and act dumb. I mean she outsmarted EVERY house Republican AND for all intents and purposes, the FBI! If Hillary catches Trump in just one of his Emotional conspiracy-like tirades. I consider it game over for Trump.
 
Everyone thinks that Trump will do well in the debates, everyone thinks he will have a Ronald Reagan moment during them. Though I haven't seen this capacity from him, he's either absent from them or rather mellow. Hillary's people are going on the offensive for the first time in the debates. They are training her to attack, attack, attack and to get under his skin. If the Benghazi hearings prove anything, it's Hillary knows how to debate, hold her ground, and act dumb. I mean she outsmarted EVERY house Republican AND for all intents and purposes, the FBI! If Hillary catches Trump in just one of his Emotional conspiracy-like tirades. I consider it game over for Trump.
Unless Trump sneaks in a strobelight pen and induces a seizure in her.
 
And if he does that he would be kicked out of the debate.

Everybody would be laughing so hard, nobody would notice. Can you see her beady little eyes now, darting back and forth, up and down. Grand Mal seizure for sure.
 
Not saying otherwise. But when one poll gets a different result than both the aggregate and the other polls individually (trend,) we need to question something. Why would we not?

If it was just one poll I would prolly agree with you. But other polls show that Trump is starting to pull ahead also. I posted on here at DP not to long ago.
 
Not sure I really buy the poll, the aggregate across more than one poll shows Hillary is somewhere in the +3 range. Granted the gap has fallen from from a week or so back where she was +6 or more, but there is still much more to go through before we have a indication that Trump can stay out front of Hillary over a long term.

Namely... the debates (and it is not going to be pretty.)

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton
However, you may want to keep in mind that the RCP aggregate is a basket of polls that sample as far as two weeks back.

So in a fast moving environment, it acts as somewhat of a two-week-moving-average.

By their very nature, moving averages lag during fast movement.

So today's CNN and yesterday's Reuters/IPSO polls showing Trump at parity or slightly leading, *could* indeed be accurate and in deference of the RCP average.

Now I'd like to emphasize *could* above, as I'm speaking technically & theoretically.

But that's two reasonably reputable polls in as many days showing Trump at parity or above her, and I think that deserves due attention.
 
Presidential poll: Donald Trump pulls ahead of Hillary Clinton - CNN.com





I pretty much knew it would be close. however I've been saying all along the debates will be the deciding factor. whoever comes out of those with the momentum will win the election. we shall see.

It's just amazing how easily and fast the poll changed! When was it? It was just a few days ago that Hillary held a very significant lead over Trump. What happened? Trump behaved a little better for a whole long week, he is then no more the same old Trump?
 
If it was just one poll I would prolly agree with you. But other polls show that Trump is starting to pull ahead also. I posted on here at DP not to long ago.
Yes, I think I agree.

If you will, take a look at my post #12 to see my concerns with the RCP average.

Also, let's note that the last two polls coincide with both candidates' trend lines of the past several weeks.

I think there's a good shot these recent two polls' data is valid.

My only concern is with the Reuters/IPSO poll having some small data sets in several states, but CNN does seem to be validating it.
 
Hillary may be a corrupt unethical stain on politics but joking about intentionally causing a possible serious medical condition to act up is low.


It's a toss up IMO on the debates both candidates have way more to hide than they have to offer.

I think there is a segment of the population that can't stomach Hillary and will vote for Trump. But they feel terrible about their trump vote so will tell friends family and anyone who asks they voted for (insert any other candidate.) those folks IMO make polls meaningless.
 
Everyone thinks that Trump will do well in the debates, everyone thinks he will have a Ronald Reagan moment during them. Though I haven't seen this capacity from him, he's either absent from them or rather mellow. Hillary's people are going on the offensive for the first time in the debates. They are training her to attack, attack, attack and to get under his skin. If the Benghazi hearings prove anything, it's Hillary knows how to debate, hold her ground, and act dumb. I mean she outsmarted EVERY house Republican AND for all intents and purposes, the FBI! If Hillary catches Trump in just one of his Emotional conspiracy-like tirades. I consider it game over for Trump.

LOL....if by "everyone" you mean the biggest Trump fans...then you are correct. I think the bigger consensus among "most" people is that Trump is not going to do very well. The consensus has been that without 12 other candidates in the debate, Trump isn't going to be able to hide and then come in with an attack line here and there.
 
It's just amazing how easily and fast the poll changed! When was it? It was just a few days ago that Hillary held a very significant lead over Trump. What happened? Trump behaved a little better for a whole long week, he is then no more the same old Trump?
If accurate, these past two weeks would show how weak Hillary really is, and just how badly Trump was disqualifying himself.

It would imply to me there's many who don't like Hillary, but felt they must vote for her due to Trump's disqualifying behaviour.

And indeed, we often heard this anecdotally in the forums - with mine being one of the loudest voices! :mrgreen:
 
If accurate, these past two weeks would show how weak Hillary really is, and just how badly Trump was disqualifying himself.

It would imply to me there's many who don't like Hillary, but felt they must vote for her due to Trump's disqualifying behaviour.

And indeed, we often heard this anecdotally in the forums - with mine being one of the loudest voices! :mrgreen:

I hear that line on both sides. The only reason I'm voting for Trump/Hillary is because the other side stupidly nominated Trump/Hillary.

My Dad says that, but in reality he has voted straight Republican tickets back to Ike. I am sure the left gas it's share of party line voters. Would it of really mattered if it was a Cruz, Rubio etc.. verse Sanders? Or would still hear about if only the other party didn't choose X then I could support them.



For the record I was a strong Webb supporter and wish he stayed in longer or ran on a third party ticket.
 
Trump will be along shortly to derail his own campaign. It's no big deal.

Hillary is doing a pretty good job herself; getting caught lying everyday about the emails.
 
LOL....if by "everyone" you mean the biggest Trump fans...then you are correct. I think the bigger consensus among "most" people is that Trump is not going to do very well. The consensus has been that without 12 other candidates in the debate, Trump isn't going to be able to hide and then come in with an attack line here and there.
If by "most" you mean move on, Geo Soros, Hillary loving sycophants, then you are right...Hell, Hillary may not make it to the election, she's been having more and more trouble with that cough...

Sent from my LGLS991 using Tapatalk
 
And in other Trump news, 88 former general officers (including a series of three and four star level officers) have endorsed Trump for the presidency.
Eighty-eight former military leaders write letter endorsing Donald Trump for president - CNNPolitics.com

These endorsements should take away some of the force generated by a four star military officer denouncing Trump at the Democratic National Convention with still other retired officers in the background by maintaining that Trump was inherently unfit for the presidency and that they had no confidence in him as a Commander in Chief.
Gen. John Allen backs Clinton in hawkish rebuke of Trump - POLITICO

My guess is that the earlier denunciations (part of a "perfect storm" of Trump's handling of Khan and defections by some Republicans), hurt Trump a lot with swing voters. These endorsements should alleviate some of their concerns.
 
Everyone thinks that Trump will do well in the debates, everyone thinks he will have a Ronald Reagan moment during them. Though I haven't seen this capacity from him, he's either absent from them or rather mellow. Hillary's people are going on the offensive for the first time in the debates. They are training her to attack, attack, attack and to get under his skin. If the Benghazi hearings prove anything, it's Hillary knows how to debate, hold her ground, and act dumb. I mean she outsmarted EVERY house Republican AND for all intents and purposes, the FBI! If Hillary catches Trump in just one of his Emotional conspiracy-like tirades. I consider it game over for Trump.

"Everyone" thinks that?
 
And in other Trump news, 88 former general officers (including a series of three and four star level officers) have endorsed Trump for the presidency.
Eighty-eight former military leaders write letter endorsing Donald Trump for president - CNNPolitics.com

These endorsements should take away some of the force generated by a four star military officer denouncing Trump at the Democratic National Convention with still other retired officers in the background by maintaining that Trump was inherently unfit for the presidency and that they had no confidence in him as a Commander in Chief.
Gen. John Allen backs Clinton in hawkish rebuke of Trump - POLITICO

My guess is that the earlier denunciations (part of a "perfect storm" of Trump's handling of Khan and defections by some Republicans), hurt Trump a lot with swing voters. These endorsements should alleviate some of their concerns.

Interesting. Democrats were quite vocal about Gen. Allen's backing of Hillary. They're awfully quite in regards to this.
 
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