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Paul Mason absolutely nails the current situation and the prospects for what will happen post-referendum.
UK Journalist Paul Mason Covering Euro Crisis: Why Greeks Will Probably Vote
I don't agree. The Prime Minister's punt is anything but a "masterstroke." Moreover, it was understood by all the parties that the first round talks would deal with structural and fiscal consolidation. The second starting later this year would deal with the debt relief issue. Both issues are complex and large differences existed among the parties. It was impractical to negotiate both simultaneously. Had the current Greek government negotiated capably early on, perhaps the fiscal agreement would have been in place months ago and that second round would have started. Instead, it wasted enormous time on loud posturing and self-defeating games of brinkmanship. It has now compounded the issue by punting.
Was the government incapable of a complex and difficult negotiation? Did its leaders choose to define Greece's interests as those of Syriza, even as Syriza's interests are far narrower than those of the Greek people as a whole? Was the government always inclined to exit the Euro Zone (which it blamed for Greece's predicament), which it pursued under the cover of a difficult negotiation that wouldn't make it obvious given that Greece's people support remaining in the Euro Zone?
Those are some of the questions that will be examined in the years ahead, even if a moment of sobriety strikes the Greek government and it resumes its basic responsibilities of leadership. It's too soon to tell, but my early guess is that one witnessed elements of the second and third questions.