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Greece's Tsipras calls referendum to break bailout deadlock

Manc Skipper said:
Any coup would be EU-sponsored, to sideline the democratically elected government of Greece from carrying out it's mandate.
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The EU won't sponsor any coups. Coups are incompatible with the EU's principles.
 
donsutherland1 said:
If a referendum is held--and I hope the ECB will retain its assistance to Greece's banks until after the results are in--I very much hope that the Greek people will vote for accepting the EU/ECB/IMF terms. Such an outcome would be a rejection of the Tsipiras government's position. The current Greek government intends to campaign against that outcome rather than ask for public support for accepting the unpopular terms.

In terms of the actual referendum, there are news reports that two technical questions might be involved, not a simple straight-forward vote, meaning that the people would have to accept the EU/ECB/IMF terms in both cases for those terms to be accepted. The wording remains to be seen, but there is risk that the questions might not be transparent given the current government's tactics to date. At the same time, it remains to be seen if the EU/ECB/IMF will keep their terms on offer (I hope they do).
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As far as I understand the agreement they're being asked to vote on hasn't even been translated to Greek yet. I've come to the conclusion the referendum is ridiculous though the democracy part sounds nice on the surface. The people, as yet, don't have transparent access to the details and even the troika were accommodating to a No vote, how exactly would a compromise be reached if a referendum is hypothetically required for accepting each proposal?

Regardless, Syriza has buried themselves. They deferred the issue to a public they supposedly had a mandate to make decisions on behalf of. Yes or No, they'll be a dead entity within the next few years.
 
Manc Skipper said:
It's obvious that the hard right lunatic fascist argument from ignorance is being well brayed. Syriza didn't exist and had no part of being given the illegal loans. They were elected to end austerity. They are unable to achieve that, so have returned to their electorate to call for judgement on their work so far, and what should be done. They are under attack in Greece from actual communists for giving the Troika too much!
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" Illegal loans " ??

Well, distributing Billions in worthless securities while misrepresenting your Nations fiscal position might sound illegal, and a case could even be made to make it illegal, but I don't think Greece technically broke any laws.

And electing someone to " end " what were and are just the consequences of unsustainable deficit spending was a huge mistake.

There is nothing anyone, let alone some radical left wing activist like Syrzia could have done to " end " austerity.

You don't solve a soverign debt crisis with more debt.

What this issue has done is really expose the falacies of the narrative that Countires should and could spend their way into prosperity..

Its also exposed.....again... just how prone to corruption, mismanagement and debt Socialist Governments are.
 
Manc Skipper said:
It's obvious that the hard right lunatic fascist argument from ignorance is being well brayed. Syriza didn't exist and had no part of being given the illegal loans. They were elected to end austerity. They are unable to achieve that, so have returned to their electorate to call for judgement on their work so far, and what should be done. They are under attack in Greece from actual communists for giving the Troika too much!
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Tsipras engaged in wholly irresponsible demagoguery to win office and has now been cornered by his own rhetoric. His problem is of his own making.
 
From Reuters:

A majority of Greeks favor accepting a bailout deal with international lenders, according to two opinion polls conducted before Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced a surprise referendum on the issue.

The survey by the Alco polling institute published in Sunday's edition of the Proto Thema newspaper, said 57 percent of 1,000 respondents were in favor of reaching a deal, while 29 percent wanted a break with creditors.
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Greek opinion poll shows 57 percent favor deal with lenders | Reuters

That Tsipiras government has attempted to blow up the possibility of Greece's remaining within the Euro Zone coupled with these new polling results indicates that the current Greek government is acting in a fashion that is inconsistent with the will of Greece's people. Instead, it is likely pursuing an ideologically-rigid course and focusing on its much narrower base constituency, with little regard for the people's sentiments. And it's doing so in a fashion where it seeks to evade responsibility for its choices.

Typically, such large gaps between a government's, which is pursuing its own interests, and the differing public's interests are unsustainable in democratic societies. Therefore, it is probable that the current government will be defeated in a future election, unless it changes its approach. Of course, before that happens, it could inflict excessive additional pain on Greece's economy and its people.
 
DaveFagan said:
Au contraire. Tsipras has given the voters time to get their money out of the banks before the default. I have assumed the default a fait accompli since he was elected. His job is to represent the electorate, not the financial health of the Big Banks or the EU. If the citizens can get what money they have out of the banks before the collapse, they will preserve a small amount of solvency while the economy takes several years recovering. The IMF and the EU keep mouthing austerity, just like in Ukraine. How's that working in Ukraine?
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* Sigh *....

Is anyone responsible for their actions in left la la land ?

Or is it always the " eeebil " Banks fault ?

" Austerity " is the consequence and in Greece's situation it was unavoidable.
 
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Andalublue said:
The EU/IMF have been pushing the idea that Tsipras has been behaving waywardly, not negotiating in the best interests of the Greek people and not being serious about market reforms. That's simply propaganda. The package that the Greek government has proposed is austere, probably too austere for the Greek public to accept, because Tsipras and Varoufakis have gone so far towards giving the lenders what they are demanding. There doesn't appear to be any substantive basis on which the EU/ECB/IMF negotiators should reject the Greek proposal. It strikes me, and I suspect Tsipras, that they aren't serious about negotiating a deal that the Greek people can accept. They are offering no debt relief, only more austerity, for a people who have had nothing else for the past 8 years.

Trying to present the stalemate as coming from the Greek side pushing a radical left-wing agenda is playing politics. Tsipras is rightly calling their bluff and demonstrating that they are not out of touch with the position their people hold. I'd say the EU/ECB/IMF position is one that is promoting a Grexit. They want Greece out of the Eurozone (and thereby out of the EU) and have not been negotiating in good faith.

It's rather ironic that the use of a referendum on a single, albeit major, issue is being portrayed as a lack of leadership when everyone on the right has been applauding the UK Tories' EU-exit referendum plans, the consequences of which are considerably more complicated, difficult to explain and debate than the Greek government's negotiating position. That's a red herring if ever I saw one!
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The Greeks put themselves in this situation all by themselves. There is a difference between a deliberate referendum on a subject of prolonged public debate, as in the UK, and a hasty-expedient referendum called by a cowardly government grasping at straws to avoid the consequences of its own demagoguery, as in Greece.
 
Reality intrudes. Austerity is discredited.

" Greece will hold a referendum on July 5 on whether the country should accept the bailout offer of international creditors. The government’s decision to reject what was on offer and call the referendum is ultimately an attempt to take charge of its domestic policy and reaffirm its credibility with voters.

Although Greece is hard strapped for cash this is clearly a political decision with profound consequences for the future of the European Union. It is also the right one.

This is not merely useful as a negotiating tactic for obtaining a better deal with its creditors, as many commentators might suggest. The coalition of the left, Syriza, had no choice but to oppose further measures that would lock its economy into a deflationary spiral, the trappings of which are destroying Greek society.

The Greek position

Elected with the mandate to end the savage austerity policies already imposed, Syriza could hardly accept the further cuts demanded. These include cuts in income support for pensioners below the poverty line and a VAT hike of up to 23% on food staples. Even more onerous was the demand that Greece should deliver a sustained primary budget surplus of 1% for 2016, gradually increasing to 3.5% in the following years when its economy has already been contracting for six years.

By most counts the austerity policies imposed by Greece’s creditors in 2010 in exchange for the bailout money (of €240 billion) have been an abject economic and moral failure. The International Monetary Fund itself has acknowledged “a notable failure” in managing the terms of the first Greek bailout, in setting overly optimistic expectations for the country’s economy and underestimating the effects of the austerity measures it imposed. ... "

https://theconversation.com/now-the...hy-tsipras-referendum-is-the-right-move-43974
 
donsutherland1 said:
From CNBC:

Reuters just flashed this:

GREEK OPPOSITION LEADER SAMARAS TO MEET GREEK PRESIDENT ON SUNDAY

I am not sure what will be discussed, but if the President and Opposition will move to replace the Tsipiras government within Greece's constitutional framework, that would be a constructive step.
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That couldn't be done within the constitutional framework whereby the government voted in governs. Oh, you mean stage a coup d'état. I'm sure the Troika would lap that up.
 
Apparently, it appears that Prime Minister Tsipiras' impulsive move to evade leadership responsibilities pulled the rug out from his negotiators who were still talking when he made his move. From Bloomberg.com:

Shortly before midnight on Friday in the Belgian capital, the Greeks and representatives of the European Union and International Monetary Fund, tucked away in the EU Commission’s Charlemagne building, learned via Twitter that their efforts were in vain, according to an EU official.

It was the first time Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s Brussels negotiators had heard about it. They soon left the room, their attempts to thrash out a compromise in tatters.

Greeks Working on Deal Blindsided by Twitter Post on Referendum - Bloomberg Business
 
donsutherland1 said:
The EU won't sponsor any coups. Coups are incompatible with the EU's principles.
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Not really, since the move to impose a settlement on Greece that is against the will of the democratically-elected government and counter to the expressed wishes of the great majority of Greeks is tantamount to a coup i.e the undemocratic imposition of an illegitimate power by de facto means, usually (although not exclusively) by the use of violent coercion. The Troika is positively insisting on a coup.
 
donsutherland1 said:
Apparently, it appears that Prime Minister Tsipiras' impulsive move to evade leadership responsibilities pulled the rug out from his negotiators who were still talking when he made his move. From Bloomberg.com:

Shortly before midnight on Friday in the Belgian capital, the Greeks and representatives of the European Union and International Monetary Fund, tucked away in the EU Commission’s Charlemagne building, learned via Twitter that their efforts were in vain, according to an EU official.

It was the first time Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s Brussels negotiators had heard about it. They soon left the room, their attempts to thrash out a compromise in tatters.

Greeks Working on Deal Blindsided by Twitter Post on Referendum - Bloomberg Business
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The Greeks made the same mistake we made.

Electing a ideologue and not a leader comes with some pretty substantial consequences.

The left wing anti-austerity rhetoric that he used to gain power is absolutely useless as a bargaining tool when dealing with Greece's creditors.
 
Andalublue said:
Not really, since the move to impose a settlement on Greece that is against the will of the democratically-elected government and counter to the expressed wishes of the great majority of Greeks is tantamount to a coup i.e the undemocratic imposition of an illegitimate power by de facto means, usually (although not exclusively) by the use of violent coercion. The Troika is positively insisting on a coup.
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But, since he has that popular mandate, he could just say no. Why is he deferring?
 
Ben K. said:
But, since he has that popular mandate, he could just say no. Why is he deferring?
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Why ever should a democratically-elected government submit a major decision to a plebiscite? People may argue that his election victory was about a broad range of issues, whereas this referendum will demonstrate the consensus of the nation on this one major issue.
 
Andalublue said:
Why ever should a democratically-elected government submit a major decision to a plebiscite? People may argue that his election victory was about a broad range of issues, whereas this referendum will demonstrate the consensus of the nation on this one major issue.
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(Few) People may argue that but I find it hard to believe. I've said it before but if the troika reacted to a no by offering a better deal, are they going to hold another referendum for that one? And so on, and so forth.

Hell, are creditors and Greeks supposed to fund referendums ad nauseum now? Burn the creditors or don't. He was elected to lead a country, his citizens have lives to lead other than reading up on the minutes of the meetings he attended.
 
Ben K. said:
(Few) People may argue that but I find it hard to believe. I've said it before but if the troika reacted to a no by offering a better deal, are they going to hold another referendum for that one? And so on, and so forth.

Hell, are creditors and Greeks supposed to fund referendums ad nauseum now? Burn the creditors or don't. He was elected to lead a country, his citizens have lives to lead other than reading up on the minutes of the meetings he attended.
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I think if Greece is to go down the default road (a la Ecuador 2008) then a clear mandate on that specific course of action will be invaluable.
 
From Reuters:

Greek conservative opposition leader Antonis Samaras will hold talks with the country's president on Sunday, the president's office said, after opposition parties condemned the government's call for a referendum.

Samaras, head of the New Democracy conservatives, earlier this week said he would be willing to participate in a cross-party government to pull Greece back from the brink of bankruptcy.
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Greek opposition leader to hold talks with president Sunday | Reuters

IMO, while it's good to see mature leaders trying to rescue Greece from a needless self-inflicted catastrophe, I doubt that former Prime Minister Samaras will be able to build a governing coalition at this point in time.
 
Jetboogieman said:
Don, I gotta ask.

What do you predict will happen if they default on the 30th?
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My guess is that Europe will go slow in cutting links. The ECB will continue to finance Greek banks. Things could become dramatically tougher for Greece should the referendum reject the aid package. The IMF has extended an olive branch of sorts appealing to Greece's people. Bloomberg.com reported:

Negotiations could be revived if Greek voters defy their leaders and show they want to stay in the euro zone, Lagarde said.

“If there was a resounding ‘yes, we want to stay in the euro for good, we want to be part of that, we want to restore the status of the economy, we want to be sustainable in the long run,’ there would be a resounding ‘let us try,’” she said.

IMF Won

Hopefully, more sober heads will prevail in coming days, as failure would amount to a "lose-lose" proposition for Europe and for Greece.
 
For those who are interested, the referendum question will read:

“Greek people are hereby asked to decide whether they accept a draft agreement document submitted by the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, at the Eurogroup meeting held on on June 25 and which consists of two documents:

‘‘The first document is called Reforms for the Completion of the Current Program and Beyond and the second document is called Preliminary Debt Sustainability Analysis.

‘‘- Those citizens who reject the institutions’ proposal vote Not Approved / NO

‘‘- Those citizens who accept the institutions’ proposal vote Approved / YES.’’

Tsipras Asking Grandma to Figure Out If Greek Debt Deal Is Fair - Bloomberg Business
 
Jetboogieman said:
Don, I gotta ask.

What do you predict will happen if they default on the 30th?
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Jet, whether Greek exit occurs on Tuesday or not, it will happen when Greece votes 'no' to the referendum, as I think they inevitably will. Talking to some Greek friends this week, the attitude on the street appears to be summed up by this quote from someone queueing up to withdraw cash from a bank:

“It will be no from me, because Greeks are asked to decide between death and death by Europe. I’d rather die by my own choice in my own country, with fellow Greeks, rather than have someone else decide my fate.”

I don't think it matters much who delivers the coup de grace, the fact is that the Eurogroup are not offering anything. Their austerity measures have failed utterly. That austerity, that the Greeks have been suffering for 7 years have not only seen Greek debt continue to increase, but it has also killed economic growth, increased unemployment and done nothing to promote Greek exports, and yet those are exactly the things that it was claimed the austerity policy would achieve. Why would the Greeks believe that just more of the same would achieve in the future what it has failed to achieve at all in the past?

The second point to make is that reading the Eurogroup propaganda against Syriza, you'd get the impression that they are to blame for the Greek debt, the failed economic structures of the nation and the corrupt nature of the Greek banking sector. Syriza is the response to those things, and also to the very real and well-documented role that the EU and international institutions have played in creating this mess. Do IFKAT/Troika/Institutions (whatever they are calling themselves this week) believe that Greeks will blame Syriza, who didn't even exist when the debts were run up, or the external accomplices of the bankers and politicians, for the situation? Who would you trust to have the interests of Greek people as their key priority?

There's also a couple of other points to make about a Grexit. Paul Krugman puts it very clearly and succinctly here. The consequences for the Eurozone may be extreme. The Troika's hubris at the prospect of forcing Greece into default may well prove to be the defining element that brings about the demise of the Eurozone.
 
Manc Skipper said:
Any coup would be EU-sponsored, to sideline the democratically elected government of Greece from carrying out it's mandate.
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To be honest here this has all the hallmarks of the IMF. The IMF has done this before. Not sure why we even have the IMF any more as it is motives are clear .. profit and promotion of US economic views.
 
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