Thanks for that really sophisticated analysis of US presidential elections. Perhaps you might also factor the information presented below (note the discussion of significant structural shifts in the American electorate that renders your 100 year analysis moot) and get back to us....
The missing story of the 2014 election - GOPlifer
Can a Republican Win 270 Electoral Votes in 2016...or Ever? - The Daily Beast
The Democrats have a lock on the White House - MarketWatch
One of the problems with the Republicans is that most of the candidates the Conservatives like are indeed, what you call, "lunatics" in the board scheme of the political spectrum..
If she were running for governor of Texas, you would be right. But, she is running for President and most of the electorate, contrary to the Texan myopic world view, are not Texans. It's the Cons that actually have slightly better than no shot.
ok then just look at the last 24 years. 8 years of clinton, 8 years of bush, 8 years of obama. back and forth.
i didn't claim it was a complicated analysis, so i don't know what your sarcasm was supposed to add to that post.
i still don't think that any one side has a "lock" on the white house, despite the "controversial analysis from a Republican analyst" that you cite as proof of something in the market watch article.
i admit the gop has a lot of fringe
candidates, but when it comes down to the general election, just one party vs. the other, the margins of victory in popular vote % have been close. again, not claiming to be a political scientist, but in the last 75 years, only 5 elections have had a double digit margin of victory (4 R, 1 D). electoral college margins have been greater, but both sides have landslide wins by that metric as well in recent history
additionally, in the last hundred years, voter turnout in presidential elections has hovered between 50-60%. i get the arguments and
predictions about shifts in demographics that should favor democrats, but the bottom line (and the data so far seems to support) that it's still more or less a coin flip. for all the new minorities that are coming here that are supposed to favor the D, there are 10,000 people per day retiring that should then in theory favor the R by virtue of the "old, rich, hands off my medicare" crowd.
even john judis, co author of the "the emerging democratic majority" is walking back that prediction...