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Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent [W:437]

Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

I'm not sure that's the real question, but it is certainly a fair point. It's difficult to keep any rigor in these sorts of discussions as many of the participants are approaching this with about a 3rd graders understanding.

A more important question, which is seldom addressed, is what is the likely climate outcome given a particular set of policy actions on CO2 (etc...) emissions. How does bending the emissions curve bend the temperature curve? How does it bend the economy curve?

Forget the reasons why, increasing global temperature will have a profoundly negative effect on the economy. So too will scarcity of fossil fuels. Restrictions and efficiency mandates will also have a negative effect on the economy. However, they will also offset some of the negative effects of climate change AND resource scarcity. So the real question is what should we do now to put us in the best shape economically for the future?

The problem is a rational policy maker has to deal with uncertainty and a chain of known (and unknown) probability. For example, suppose the chances of a temperature rise of greater than 1 degree centigrade is 50-50. Then suppose that the chances of significant climate change is 50-50. Then suppose the chance of good or bad effects are 50-50? One ends up with a 12.5 percent chance that there will be a significant rise in temperatures, that will in turn cause a significant change in climate, that will turnout to be "bad" rather than "good" economically.

Now add in the uncertainty of just "how bad" the economics effect will be, as well as whether or not it is worth a penalty on the world economic to address? And if so, then there is the uncertainty of what strategy will actually work and is "best" (e.g. adaptation to change vs. geo-engineering vs. attempts to slow or stop change via heavy carbon taxes and/or regulation of greenhouse emissions).

To say nothing of the political reality that any serious, verifiable, and coordinated plan will almost certainly never arise in the next 20 years.

My own view is simple: the next generations will be far richer than today, and their technology far more advanced. Let them fix it - after all, they will be the one's inheriting the standard of living and capital built by their fore-fathers.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Um.... this is how stochastic processes work and are modelled.

Statistically significant is a scientific term with an actual meaning. Basically, you form a statistical model of the process and then determine the probability that the differences you see between your model and the measured values can be explained with the given noise.
p-value - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Statistically significant is a scientific term with an actual meaning that is not well understood by most people (and most scientists).

In the model you described earlier, there was no comparison between the model and measured values. All you were doing (insofar as it was described in that post) was testing the hypothesis that any fluctuations in climate are entirely due to random processes with no real change in climate over time.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

A more important question, which is seldom addressed, is what is the likely climate outcome given a particular set of policy actions on CO2 (etc...) emissions.How does bending the emissions curve bend the temperature curve? How does it bend the economy curve?

Given that as I mentioned earlier the human CO2 fingerprint on global temperature has yet to be detected against the noise of natural background variability much less quantified in its impact any economic move would be premature in the extreme.

Forget the reasons why, increasing global temperature will have a profoundly negative effect on the economy.

How so ? Longer growing seasons and greater crop yields will potentially benefit millions. The extra CO2 in the atmosphere will help compound that added growth too.

So too will scarcity of fossil fuels.

The new gas fracking technologies coming online in the US and elsewhere have rather pushed that gloomy scenario further away than ever. With the potential for much cheaper plentiful energy in the future we could in fact be looking at a new economic boomtime much like the one we enjoyed in the 25 years after WW2

Restrictions and efficiency mandates will also have a negative effect on the economy

So don't introduce them

However, they will also offset some of the negative effects of climate change AND resource scarcity.

Not necessarily as previously outlined. Indeed the very opposite might well be the case

So the real question is what should we do now to put us in the best shape economically for the future?

I'd say invest in cheaper cleaner gas fracking technologies with all haste. This also has the added bonus of negating the need for the costly replacement of energy generation infrastructure too
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

I'm not sure that's the real question, but it is certainly a fair point. It's difficult to keep any rigor in these sorts of discussions as many of the participants are approaching this with about a 3rd graders understanding.

A more important question, which is seldom addressed, is what is the likely climate outcome given a particular set of policy actions on CO2 (etc...) emissions. How does bending the emissions curve bend the temperature curve? How does it bend the economy curve?

Forget the reasons why, increasing global temperature will have a profoundly negative effect on the economy. So too will scarcity of fossil fuels. Restrictions and efficiency mandates will also have a negative effect on the economy. However, they will also offset some of the negative effects of climate change AND resource scarcity. So the real question is what should we do now to put us in the best shape economically for the future?
My answer is to encourage massive photovoltaic roof installs.
I don't like regulations, but France may be on to something requiring new construction to have ether solar or green roofs.
France decrees new rooftops must be covered in plants or solar panels | World news | The Guardian
We should revamp the home solar rules to smooth the path for surplus energy purchase,
and perhaps provide some tax incentives to older refineries that switch to man made hydrocarbon fuels.
The surplus energy from the solar roofs would be stored as hydrocarbon fuels, and sold through
existing distribution chains.
Once the petrochemical Engineers get working on the processes, they will likely be able to improve the efficiency.
It could also be possible to look at some sort of energy credit to solar homeowners, where they could use the credit
to pay off season utility bills, or purchase fuel.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

In order to debate an issue meaningfully, one must understand the terms one chooses to employ, and whenever travis has been asked to define, in his own words, the terminology used in the evidence he attacks, he can't do it.

And that's typical of conservatives--they're simply too dumb to understand any scientific words. So if you want a meaningful debate, then conservative posters either have to be ignored or removed.

You mean if you want a circle jerk of Progressives who can parrot off their meaningless talking points without being challenged then Conservatives must be removed.

If thats what you want why do you post here ? Go to the Democrat Underground. They don't let Conservative posters in there.

You can slap each other on the back and gush over how smart you think you are and there's no one to correct you.

Pretty cowardly if you ask me, but hey I don't post there.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

I think I'm missing how the nitrogen is going to be excited given the lack of free electrons in the atmosphere?? Also vibrational contact transfer of energy is far more feasible in an enclosed container rather than out in the open.
Nitrogen is a big UV absorber, I am thinking the sunlight will optically pump the nitrogen.
As to vibrational contact transfer that is just a mean free path problem,
With a gas that is 780,000 ppm of the of the atmosphere, the CO2 does not need to go far
to meet an excited nitrogen.
Bear in mind the atmospheric nitrogen is 4 to 6 times higher than in a CO2 laser enclosed container.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Originally Posted by Tim the plumber View Post
Go on then, I'll bite.

How does a stopped clock not show the correct time twice a day? Assuming its a mechanical one with hour and minute hands.

where in the venn space of possible clocks do stopped clocks and broken clocks reside?

So I was right; having made a silly claim you are in full retreat into psudo-interlectual babble.

The clarity of you knowing nothing about anything is very obvious here.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

I think the Duke study argues fairly convincingly that we should throw the upper bounds out now.

Fabulous!

Given that, do you consider it any threat?

If so please explain why. I ask not as any sort of troll but because you are the cleverest of the AGW proponents and I honestly see absolutely no scary bits at all from the bottom half of the predictions.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

So I was right; having made a silly claim you are in full retreat into psudo-interlectual babble.

The clarity of you knowing nothing about anything is very obvious here.

just to clarify, since you posted the above quote;
you think ALL broken clocks are stopped?
none simply run fast/slow (wind speed?), etc?
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Forget the reasons why, increasing global temperature will have a profoundly negative effect on the economy. So too will scarcity of fossil fuels. Restrictions and efficiency mandates will also have a negative effect on the economy. However, they will also offset some of the negative effects of climate change AND resource scarcity. So the real question is what should we do now to put us in the best shape economically for the future?

1, Why will a very slight increase in temperature have significant negative economic effects?

2, What scarcity of fossil fuels? Have you not noticed the peak oil thing went away?
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

just to clarify, since you posted the above quote;
you think ALL broken clocks are stopped?
none simply run fast/slow (wind speed?), etc?

OK, how does a stopped clock ever not tell the correct time twice a day?
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Moderator's Warning:
A handful of infractions are in the process of being issued, and I'll happily add more onto that if needed. People need to focus on the topic and stop the non-topical, trolling, and/or personal type of posts
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Natural variation just like so many of the warming/cooling phases. Many have alluded to the Maunder minumum but in reality we can only guess

Hate to tell you this, guy, but except for the seasons themselves being determined by the earth's position in relation to the sun, ALL major planet-wide climactic changes have CAUSES - they don't "just happen due to natural variation".

It will be pretty obvious to any impartial observer based on our respective input that I know considerably more about this subject than you do

Your first quote above obviates your claim.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Hate to tell you this, guy, but except for the seasons themselves being determined by the earth's position in relation to the sun, ALL major planet-wide climactic changes have CAUSES - they don't "just happen due to natural variation".
No natural variation! so the weather guy(or girl) can tell you exactly what the climate conditions will be 5 years from today?
Nope the weather and climate cycles about quite a bit.
Just look at the GISS temps.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
all over the place.
If you actually calculated a signal to noise ratio for say the last 30 years, about 1/3 of the signal would be noise.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Hate to tell you this, guy, but except for the seasons themselves being determined by the earth's position in relation to the sun, ALL major planet-wide climactic changes have CAUSES - they don't "just happen due to natural variation".

I'm sure they do. Its just that we do not know what they are. If we do not know the causes of these dozens of natural changes over recent millenia then how can we determine that todays isn't just another one of them ?

Your first quote above obviates your claim.

Well then genius there have been around two dozen natural warming phases at least as warm or warmer than today since the last glaciation. Please enlighten us (and the whole scientific community) with your explanation for such events ?

This is just the last 4000 years

Kobashi 2011

4000yearsgreenland_nov2011_gprl.jpg

http://www.leif.org/EOS/2011GL049444.pdf
 
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Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

I'm sure they do. Its just that we do not know what they are. If we do not know the causes of these dozens of natural changes over recent millenia then how can we determine that todays isn't just another one of them ?



Well then genius there have been around two dozen natural warming phases at least as warm or warmer than today since the last glaciation. Please enlighten us (and the whole scientific community) with your explanation for such events ?

This is just the last 4000 years

Kobashi 2011

View attachment 67183762

http://www.leif.org/EOS/2011GL049444.pdf


At what time point on that plot did man begin using more than 1/2 of the known CLHC's in the world to begin building the intrastructure and cities in their current (climate compatible) locations?
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

At what time point on that plot did man begin using more than 1/2 of the known CLHC's in the world to begin building the intrastructure and cities in their current (climate compatible) locations?

Can you not read graphs then ? Man clearly has little or nothing to do with the post glacial temperature variations, many of which have been far more dramatic than that which we see today.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Can you not read graphs then ? Man clearly has little or nothing to do with the post glacial temperature variations, many of which have been far more dramatic than that which we see today.

Can you not read what I wrote?
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Can you not read what I wrote?

The onus is on you to prove that todays temperatures are unprecedented or unnatural and that man must therefore be culpable. I've just demonstrated that they aren't and therefore he isn't. How much clearer an illustration do you require ?
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

The onus is on you to prove that todays temperatures are unprecedented or unnatural and that man must therefore be culpable. I've just demonstrated that they aren't and therefore he isn't. How much clearer an illustration do you require ?

Fanatics don't care about evidence. They will keep the faith, even when their case goes down in flames.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

The onus is on you to prove that todays temperatures are unprecedented or unnatural and that man must therefore be culpable. I've just demonstrated that they aren't and therefore he isn't. How much clearer an illustration do you require ?

Nothing you just said has ANYTHING to do with what I wrote in the comment you responded to.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Nothing you just said has ANYTHING to do with what I wrote in the comment you responded to.

If you are unable to read a graph scale then I cannot help you out . I've made my case and have absolutely no interest in playing dodgeball with you. :roll:
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

Fanatics don't care about evidence. They will keep the faith, even when their case goes down in flames.

I think some people just hate humans. Over the last 30 years or so the whole environmental movement has become like that sadly :(
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

I'm sure they do. Its just that we do not know what they are. If we do not know the causes of these dozens of natural changes over recent millenia then how can we determine that todays isn't just another one of them ?



Well then genius there have been around two dozen natural warming phases at least as warm or warmer than today since the last glaciation. Please enlighten us (and the whole scientific community) with your explanation for such events ?

This is just the last 4000 years

Kobashi 2011

View attachment 67183762

http://www.leif.org/EOS/2011GL049444.pdf

That's the problem with your level of understanding, guy - with the great majority (and perhaps all) of the big climactic changes, we DO know what almost certainly caused them.
 
Re: Our climate models are WRONG: Global warming has slowed - and recent changes are

That's the problem with your level of understanding, guy - with the great majority (and perhaps all) of the big climactic changes, we DO know what almost certainly caused them.

Please enlighten us then ? You have dozens of post glacial peaks and troughs to choose from
 
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